POLICY SEMINAR: IMPLICATIONS OF EL NIñO 2023/24 FOR AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA
Please type your questions into the chat box with name, affiliation, and country. The event video, presenter slides, and podcast will be available in the days following the event.
Climate scientists are anticipating an El Niño event in the upcoming boreal winter season (November 2023–February 2024), ending the recent three-year La Niña. In collaboration with USAID FEWS NET and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, IFPRI is hosting a presentation on the potential impact of the upcoming El Niño on the global agrifood system, with special emphasis on low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The event will be organized around four short talks. Part 1 will examine the latest scientific outlook for the 2023 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole climate patterns. Part 2 will focus on El Niño’s impact on global markets, particularly rice markets. Part 3 will provide a sub-national assessment for Ethiopia, Malawi, and Zambia of potentially affected crops and rural populations. Part 4 will present an economywide socioeconomic impact analysis of El Niño at the national level in selected focus countries, including Malawi, using IFPRI’s RIAPA model. The presentation will conclude with a summary of potential hotspots and proposals for policy options, as well as a review of knowledge gaps, points of uncertainty, and priorities for future research and collaboration.
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Overview and Global Implications
- Weston Anderson, Assistant Research Scientist at University of Maryland (UMD) and NASA, Earth Sciences Division
- Karyn Tabor, Agroclimatology Advisor, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Global Markets with a Focus on Rice
- Joseph Glauber, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI
- Abdullah Mamun, Senior Research Analyst, IFPRI
- Vivian Hoffman, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI
Sub-National Implications with a Focus on Ethiopia, Malawi, and Zambia
- Liangzhi You, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI
- Liz Ogutu, Policy Analyst, IFPRI
Socioeconomic Analysis for Malawi
- James Thurlow, Director, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM), IFPRI
- Joachim De Weerdt, Senior Research Fellow / Malawi Country Program Leader, IFPRI
- Thomas Munthali, Director General, The National Planning Commission (NPC), Malawi
Moderator
- Charlotte Hebebrand, Director of Communications and Public Affairs, IFPRI
