Publications

The early bird gets the cash: When should a scholarship for secondary school arrive? Evidence from Ethiopia

Key takeaways

• A study in Ethiopia found conditional cash transfers increased secondary school enrollment. Youth offered transfers were more likely to enroll and stay in school.

• Earlier notification delivered bigger impacts. Students informed more than a year in advance saw larger enrollment gains and higher exam pass rates.

• Benefits extended beyond schooling. The program reduced early marriage and improved household well-being, including increased school enrollment among younger siblings.

Intake of aquatic and terrestrial animal source foods among women of reproductive age in northern Tanzania

Aquatic foods and terrestrial animal source foods (TASF) provide crucial nutrients that build and maintain muscle mass and function. These foods are particularly rich in essential micronutrients, including iron, zinc, vitamin A (as retinol), vitamin D, and vitamin B12, as well as essential fatty acids. Notably, vitamin B12 is found almost exclusively in TASF and some aquatic foods, underscoring their importance in diets. Compared with plant-sourced protein foods, aquatic foods and TASF generally provide micronutrients in more bioavailable forms, which is critical for populations at risk of micronutrient deficiencies. However, aquatic foods and TASF have a higher environmental footprint than plant-sourced protein foods, requiring diversified strategies to meet global dietary needs under increasing environmental pressures.

Anticipatory action and early warning systems: A community engagement toolkit for the Sahel

A key finding from this work was that community leaders expressed strong demand for training and concrete guidance on how to act before disasters arrive. Leaders understood the value of early action and were eager for practical tools that could help their communities move from awareness to preparation. There was also significant appetite for understanding how anticipatory action programming could complement and strengthen the preventative efforts communities were already undertaking on their own. This motivated developing the following field-ready storyboard tool – designed to introduce anticipatory action to leaders and community members in concrete, accessible terms and to support community leaders in building the shared understanding and buy-in needed to put early action plans in place before the next crisis arrives.

El Niño preparedness and response

El Niño is a phase in an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean. It occurs on average every 2 to 7 years and typically lasts between 9 months and 2 years. El Niño affects global weather patterns, resulting in above-average precipitation in some places and droughts in others. Malawi and its neighbors typically experience drier than usual weather during El Niño, which often leads to poor growing conditions and below-average harvests (Anderson et al., 2023). In mid-June 2026, conditions in the Pacific Ocean have surpassed El Niño thresholds, and it is becoming increasingly probable that they will strengthen further (NOAA, 2026).

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, June 2026

Retail prices of maize stagnated in the Southern and Central Regions. The continued arrival of newly harvested maize drove price declines in the Northern Region, reflecting its later harvest season compared with the rest of the country. Continued maize imports of maize from Mozambique and Zambia also helped keep Malawian prices down.

How African economies are absorbing the 2026 oil price shock (so far)

Oil prices began climbing in January 2026 amid the escalating U.S. and Israeli confrontation with Iran, then spiked when war broke out on February 28 and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose by roughly 70% within weeks. By June, a fragile ceasefire had brought prices part of the way back down. Whether the calm holds depends on further diplomatic negotiations between the warring parties. Whatever the negotiators do next, this shock continues to stress economies and food systems around the world, though effects vary by region and country. Has it reached (or will it reach) Africa’s food systems, and where?

Diets, fruit and vegetable intake, and nutritional status in Benin, Fiji, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Tanzania: Foreword

Improving diets can improve nutrition and health outcomes. In this supplement, evidence from five low-and-middle-income countries on the country specific dietary (including F&V) intake patterns, nutrition issues and evaluated solutions to improve diets across population groups is presented. Based on this evidence, the final paper offers perspectives and future priorities.

Perceived challenges and solutions to adopting healthy diets among women and children: A photovoice study in urban Ethiopia

Ethiopia has one of the highest rates of undernutrition among children under five (U5) and women of reproductive age (WRA) globally, alongside rising overweight/obesity, particularly in urban areas. Poor diet is a shared driver of multiple forms of malnutrition. We used a participatory photography (Photovoice) approach to explore the lived experiences of WRA and their children U5 in adopting healthy diets across lower- and higher- socio-economic status (SES) groups in Addis Ababa. Women took photographs illustrating challenges to healthy diets, and five focus groups (n = 31 women) were conducted to discuss challenges and solutions, with separate sessions held for different SES groups. A hybrid thematic analysis, combining deductive and inductive approaches, identified themes/subthemes, with comparisons across SES groups. Financial and physical barriers to accessing healthy foods, time constraints and perceived poor food safety were major contributors to poor diets. In lower SES groups, women also reported limited knowledge about healthy diets, inadequate family support and poor home food environments. In higher SES groups, unhealthy food preferences coupled with easy access to and aggressive promotion of unhealthy foods were key challenges. Proposed government-level solutions included job creation, nutrition education, affordable healthy food, investment in household infrastructure, expanded childcare and restrictions on unhealthy food availability and promotion. Societal-level solutions included gender equality, strengthened community-based loan schemes and support for urban agriculture. These findings highlight that women recognise their needs and who should support them, and emphasise the importance of including women’s voices in decision-making processes. Findings also underscore the need for integrated interventions targeting individual, food environment and socio-economic drivers to improve diets among women and children in urban Ethiopia.

Changing demographics in Ghana’s agrifood systems and implications for future youth engagement

Agrifood systems (AFS) are central to employment, food security, and economic transformation across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). As economies grow, urbanize, and experience changing food demand, AFS increasingly extend beyond farming to include processing and other downstream value chain activities. These transformations create new employment opportunities, particularly for youth and women, while reshaping labor markets and livelihoods. Understanding these changes is therefore essential for designing policies that promote inclusive growth, employment creation, and food system resilience.

This study examines the evolution of agrifood system employment in Ghana between 2000 and 2023. Using data from the International Labour Organization (ILO), the World Bank, and other national and international sources, the analysis documents trends in economic growth, population dynamics, urbanization, labor market outcomes, and employment across agrifood system segments. Particular attention is given to gender and youth dimensions of employment and their implications for inclusive development. The study contributes to the growing literature on agrifood system transformation by documenting changes in the composition of employment and identifying opportunities and constraints for inclusive participation in emerging value chains.

This study examines the evolution of agrifood system employment in Ghana between 2000 and 2023. Using data from the International Labour Organization (ILO), the World Bank, and other national and international sources, the analysis documents trends in economic growth, population dynamics, urbanization, labor market outcomes, and employment across agrifood system segments. Particular attention is given to gender and youth dimensions of employment and their implications for inclusive development. The study contributes to the growing literature on agrifood system transformation by documenting changes in the composition of employment and identifying opportunities and constraints for inclusive participation in emerging value chains.

The study finds that AFS remains the largest source of employment in Ghana, accounting for approximately two-thirds of total employment. Agriculture continues to employ a substantial share of workers, particularly men and youth, but its relative importance has declined steadily over time. At the same time, employment in nonfarm agrifood system activities – including food manufacturing, trade, transportation, and food services – expanded considerably. These findings suggest that Ghana’s labor market transformation is occurring not through a rapid exit from AFS but through diversification within them as value chains deepen and become more integrated.

The analysis also reveals important demographic patterns in AFS employment. Women are more concentrated in agrifood system employment than men and are particularly represented in nonfarm AFS activities such as trade and food-related services. However, women continue to face disadvantages in employment quality, financial inclusion, access to productive assets, and participation in formal employment. Similarly, youth remain highly dependent on AFS for their livelihoods. Although labor force participation among young people is lower and unemployment is higher than among mature workers, AFS – particularly farming – continues to provide employment for a large share of young people. These findings underscore the importance of AFS as a source of economic inclusion while highlighting the persistent barriers that women and youth continue to face.

Although the available data do not permit separate analysis of young women as a distinct population group, the combined evidence from this study and the broader literature suggests that they are likely to benefit substantially from the continued expansion of nonfarm agrifood activities. Food processing, marketing, food services, and other downstream value-chain segments are expanding in Ghana while already employing relatively large shares of women. Strengthening access to finance, productive assets, business development services, skills, and digital technologies can therefore help translate ongoing agrifood transformation into more dignified and fulfilling employment opportunities for young women.

Employment outside agrifood systems also expanded during the study period, with the share of non-AFS employment increasing by four percentage points to 34.6 percent in 2017, reflecting Ghana’s gradual structural transformation. Growth in non-AFS employment was stronger among men and mature adults than among women and youth, indicating that opportunities outside agrifood systems have expanded unevenly across population groups.

Overall, Ghana exhibits a relatively advanced stage of agrifood system transformation, characterized by declining agricultural employment, expanding nonfarm AFS activities, and gradual growth in non-AFS employment. Continued investments in agrifood value chains, infrastructure, market connectivity, access to finance, and entrepreneurship support will be essential to ensure that this transformation generates productive, inclusive, and resilient employment, particularly for women and young people.

Healthy diet perceptions and drivers of fruit and vegetable food choices among adolescents in Benin: A qualitative study

Globally, 75% of adolescents do not meet recommendations for fruits and vegetables (F&V) consumption. This study investigated drivers of F&V choices among adolescents in Benin and identified barriers and facilitators to modifying F&V consumption. We conducted 16 focus group discussions (FGDs) with 126 adolescents and 5 semi-structured school observations in December 2024. FGDs were purposively chosen to explore variation by region (north/south), school location (urban/rural), adolescent age (12 to 15 years/16-18 years) and gender (boys/girls). Inductive and deductive thematic content analysis was performed using Atlas.ti. Findings showed that adolescents perceived a healthy diet as one composed of meals providing nutrients and strength, and including F&V. At home, adolescents mentioned eating staples and other vegetables more than other food groups. The foods adolescents reported typically eating at school varied by age, gender, and location. The primary categories of factors that influenced adolescent F&V choices were: intrapersonal (knowledge related to healthy eating and the nutrition and health benefits of F&V, taste preferences, and health prioritisation), socio-cultural (family and peer influences), and food environment (low availability, low affordability, convenience, and desirability). DFC factors were consistent across adolescent age, gender, and location. Multiple, dynamic, and multilevel factors influence adolescent F&V choices. Interventions that simultaneously address multiple barriers and involve family and peers are likely to be more successful in promoting F&V consumption and healthy diets than interventions only addressing individual barriers.

Barriers and factors associated with treatment coverage of severe acute malnutrition among children 6–59 months in agrarian and pastoralist areas of Ethiopia

Severe acute malnutrition remains a major public health concern, yet a large proportion of affected children do not receive appropriate treatment. Understanding the barriers and associated factors is essential for informing targeted, context‐specific interventions. A door‐to‐door screening campaign among children aged 6–59 months was conducted from May to September 2024 in Kersa (agrarian) and Jeldessa (pastoralist) woredas of Ethiopia. The treatment coverage of severe acute malnutrition was 12.8% (95% CI: 9.0%–17.9%). The most frequently reported barriers to treatment included lack of awareness of the child’s nutritional status, time and financial constraints, and absence of family permission. Multivariable analysis revealed that household wealth index (aPR: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.5–5.5), use of water treatment methods (aPR: 4.6; 95% CI: 1.7–11.9), recent community MUAC screening (aPR: 12.0; 95% CI: 5.4–26.8), availability of treatment services at a nearby health post (aPR: 3.2; 95% CI: 1.1–9.9), and possession of a vaccination card (aPR: 3.2; 95% CI: 1.1–9.1) were significantly associated with severe acute malnutrition treatment coverage. The findings highlight that severe acute malnutrition treatment coverage in both pastoralist and agrarian settings of Ethiopia remains critically low. Stronger implementation of active screening and treatment services recommended by Ethiopian national guidelines, together with social protection measures for the poorest households, may improve treatment coverage.

Determinants of infant and young child feeding practices of children with severe acute malnutrition in agrarian and pastoralist settings of Ethiopia

Previous research has established determinants of young child feeding (IYCF) practices in the general child population, but determinants of these practices in children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) are unknown. This study assessed the determinants of IYCF practices among children aged 6–23 months with SAM and under SAM treatment in a pastoralist and a predominantly agrarian setting in Ethiopia. As part of the baseline survey for the R-SWITCH cluster randomized control trial, we screened ~28,000 under-fives and included 486 children aged 6–23 months with SAM and under SAM treatment. Multivariable regression analysis was used to identify determinants on household, caregiver and child levels. Minimum meal frequency (MMF) was similar between children from the agrarian (53.9%) and pastoralist (51.9%) setting. The prevalence of children with minimum dietary diversity (MDD) was low overall but higher among pastoralist children (31.5%) than children from the agrarian setting (19.0%; p = 0.012). The consumption of egg/flesh foods was lower among pastoralist children (5.6%) than agrarian children (16.9%, p = 0.085). Caregiver literacy was positively associated with a higher likelihood of MMF (IRR = 1.21; 95% CI:1.02–1.43; p = 0.030), while caregiver depression was associated with a lower likelihood of MMF (RR = 0.97; 95% CI:0.95–0.99; p = 0.003). Improved water source (RR = 1.59; 95% CI:1.06–2.38; p = 0.037), caregiver literacy (RR = 2.04; 95% CI:1.25–3.34; p = 0.002), caregiver MDD (RR = 2.21; 95% CI:1.60–3.05; p ≤ 0.001), older children(RR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.02–1.08;p ≤ 0.001), and pastoralist setting (RR = 1.62; 95% CI:1.07–2.44; p = 0.014) were associated with a significantly higher likelihood of meeting MDD. Conversely, caregiver depression (RR = 0.94; 95% CI:0.90–0.97; p < 0.001), caregiver mobility restriction (IRR = 0.94; 95% CI:0.89–1.00; p = 0.025), and food insecurity (RR = 0.64; 95% CI:0.41–1.01; p = 0.05) were associated with reduced MDD likelihood. Caregiver community involvement (IRR = 1.12; 95% CI:1.00–1.26; p = 0.038), caregiver MDD (RR = 1.67; 95% CI:1.10–2.53; p = 0.043), and older children (RR = 1.08; 95% CI:1.05–1.12; p < 0.001) were associated with increased egg/flesh-food consumption among children, while living in a pastoralist setting was associated with reduced it (RR = 0.36; 95% CI:0.13–0.97; p = 0.038). Integrated and Targeted interventions recommended: caregiver literacy/depression support to improve IYCF; livelihood-specific foods (eggs/flesh, fruits/vegetables); WaSH enhancements; community engagement; and IYCF counseling within CMAM programs.

Formative research in Ethiopia and Bangladesh: Strengthening household survey measures of maternal micronutrient supplementation in low- and middle-income countries

Background
As countries transition from implementing iron folic acid (IFA) to multiple micronutrient supplements (MMS) for pregnant women, they need accurate data on who is being reached with these interventions. The aim of our formative research in Ethiopia and Bangladesh was to design updated household survey questions, response options, and visual aids to measure coverage of prenatal micronutrient supplements.

Methods
In phase I, we landscaped health providers and retailers to identify prenatal micronutrient products available in each country and interviewed currently pregnant women (CPW) and recently delivered women (RDW) about how they differentiated among micronutrient products. In phase II, we used these findings to draft survey questions and visual aids. In phase III, we iteratively tested and refined the draft tools through cognitive interviews with women.

Results
We had 73 participants in Ethiopia and 132 in Bangladesh, encompassing CPW, RDW, healthcare workers, and retailers. Women in both contexts distinguished among micronutrient products based on colour, shape, packaging, and perceived purpose. In cognitive tests, women generally understood the English term ‘iron’ as a catch-all term for any iron-containing supplement. Women did not recognise any specific term for multivitamins or MMS. Shorter recalls of seven days or one month for adherence were feasible for respondents.

Conclusions
It is challenging for the measurement community to identify terms and images that help women distinguish between supplement types. The final set of survey questions developed as part of this research is comprehensible and can be feasibly adapted and used in multi-topic surveys in MMS contexts, but requires validation.

A crop disease without borders: Why wheat stem rust threatens your food security

Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agrifood system

Armed actors are entrenched in the agrifood systems of several low- and middle-income countries, often with implications for agricultural transformation and democratic transitions. This paper focuses on the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan’s agrifood system. Through over 50 semi-structured stakeholder interviews, the paper traces how these actors gained their foothold in the agrifood system and how they interact with the private sector across diverse value chains. We argue that their investments in certain value chains depend on whether the formal private sector is already involved and the degree of technical complexity required for more profitable product upgrading. Based on these considerations, we uncover four strategies used in different value chains: exclusive capture and rent-extraction, biased competition through licencing and quota allocations, acquiescence to private competitors when value-addition is too complex, and innovation when profit potential is high and the private sector is absent. We demonstrate these strategies with respect to livestock, wheat, gum Arabic, and horticulture, with secondary applications to other commodities. Since economic competition between SAF and RSF was a major factor in the outbreak of the 2023-armed conflict, identifying these strategies expands insights about the political economy antecedents of large-scale conflict.

Women’s experiences of the food environment and their association with fruit and vegetable intake: Insights from northern Tanzania

This analysis examined associations between factors in the food environment and fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake among women living in rural Northern Tanzania. We used cross-sectional data from 2597 women and 1275 food sources. Women’s self-reported factors included buying frequency, sources, availability, and convenience. We also measured women’s access to F&V sources using geospatial measures of distance and time from home to the reported typical sources. Data from a 30-day F&V food frequency questionnaire were used to calculate two scores that captured intake frequency and variety. We conducted a descriptive analysis of indicators of women’s experience and tested their associations with the scores using multivariable and Poisson regression models, controlling for covariates. On average, 5% and 35% of women reported buying F&V daily, respectively. Fruit was mostly bought from markets: F: 80%, V: 40%. Two-thirds of respondents perceived F&V as available (F: 65%, V: 60%). Median (IQR) distance and time to fruit sources were 9 km (2,19), 39 min (19,78), and to vegetable sources were 3 km (1,10), 32 min (8-69). Compared to women who reported making daily purchases of F&V, those who purchased weekly or monthly reported lower frequency and variety of F&V intake. Women’s perceptions that F&V were less available and at a longer distance were associated with lower frequency and variety of vegetable intake.Buying frequency, perceived availability, and distance to markets were associated with women’s frequency and variety of F&V intake, underscoring the need to consider these and other factors in food environments to increase F&V intake.

Healthy diet perceptions and drivers of fruit and vegetable food choices among adolescents in Benin: A qualitative study

Objectives: Low fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption contributes to preventable mortality and morbidity from non-communicable diseases. Adolescence is a critical period to influence and change dietary choices. We aimed to understand factors that influence F&V food choices and identify barriers and facilitators to modifying F&V consumption among adolescents in Benin.

Associations between diet quality and diversity and mental health in women of reproductive age in northern Tanzania: A cross-sectional study

Objectives: Mental disorders among women of reproductive age (WRA) in Sub-Saharan Africa are an increasing concern. Diet is one of the most modifiable risk factors for mental disorders, yet population-specific information from this region is limited. Our objective was to examine associations between diet quality and diversity and mental health among WRA in rural northern Tanzania.

Representation increases women’s influence in climate deliberations: Evidence from community-managed forests in Malawi

Women’s inclusion is now the norm in global and local initiatives to combat climate change. We examine how women’s representation affects climate deliberations using the case of community-managed forests in Malawi. We run a lab-in-the-field experiment randomly varying the gender composition of six-member groups asked to deliberate on policies to combat local overharvesting. We find that any given woman has relatively more influence in group deliberations when women make up a larger share of the group, a change driven by men’s assessments of women’s influence. Women’s presence also shifts the content of deliberations toward prospective solutions for which women have socially recognized expertise (cooking and replanting). Despite these changes, women and men do not prefer different deforestation policies, and women’s presence does not meaningfully affect group decisions. Our work demonstrates how women’s presence shapes climate deliberations but also calls into question claims that women’s inclusion will necessarily affect climate decisions.

Regional integration, resilience, and innovation

Regional integration has become a strategic objective for Africa in an era marked by global tensions, climate vulnerability, and persistent structural transformation challenges. Despite decades of regional trade agreements, intra-African trade remains limited and concentrated in a narrow range of products, reflecting shallow productive integration and high trade costs. These constraints are particularly present in agriculture, which employs nearly 60% of Africa’s labor force and plays a central role in food security, income generation, and poverty reduction (Mamboundou et al. 2026). The launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents a structural shift toward continent-wide deep integration, with the potential to expand intra-African trade, strengthen regional value chains, and enhance economic resilience. At the same time, digital innovation and climate imperatives are reshaping the policy landscape, creating both opportunities and adjustment pressures. This chapter examines the interconnections between regional integration, resilience, and innovation in Africa, assessing the evolution and performance of regional trade integration, evaluating the projected impacts of AfCFTA implementation, and analyzing the roles of digitalization and climate-smart trade pathways in supporting inclusive and sustainable transformation. In the context of the post-MC14, the chapter contributes to ongoing debates on how regional integration can complement multilateral reform, particularly in agriculture, digital trade governance, and climate-related trade measures.

Final remarks [in Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African perspectives for post-MC14]

Agricultural trade is at a crossroads. The global agricultural trading system is undergoing a transformation and, as this book has argued, the changes observed in recent years are not temporary disruptions but reflect a deeper structural shift. The system has moved away from a relatively predictable, rules-based environment toward a more fragmented setting, where trade outcomes are increasingly shaped by geopolitical tensions, environmental disruptions, evolving policy instruments, and persistent structural asymmetries across countries. The erosion of predictability, the proliferating use of selective and non-MFN measures, the interaction between trade and broader geopolitical objectives, and the growing role of supply chains and logistics are redefining how agricultural trade operates.

Scenarios for agricultural trade in a changing world

Over the past 45 years, world merchandise trade has undergone significant structural transformations, and agrifood products have been part of that evolution. After a period of stagnation in the early 1980s, global trade expanded steadily from the mid-1980s through the early 2000s, driven by trade liberalization, technological progress, and deeper economic integration. This expansion accelerated between 2005 and 2010 with the consolidation of global value chains. Between 2010 and 2020, trade growth slowed amid weaker demand and rising tensions. Following the COVID-19 shock, trade rebounded sharply, reaching a historical peak in 2022, largely driven by price increases in the context of the war in Ukraine and general inflationary trends due to the economic recovery following the pandemic. These price surges proved relatively short-lived, however, and commodity prices have generally declined since mid-2022 as supply conditions improved and markets adjusted.

Introduction [in Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African perspectives for post-MC14]

Agricultural trade lies at the heart of development, food security, and sustainability. Over the past several decades, global trade in agricultural products has grown both in volume and complexity. Trade has supported structural transformation, expanded food access, and increased incomes across regions. But in recent years, this system has become increasingly strained. Rising geopolitical tensions, recurring global shocks, and a growing disconnect between trade rules and sustainability goals have left the global trading system at a crossroads.

This book is the fourth in a series of concise, policy-focused publications aimed at supporting agricultural trade reform and food systems transformation. The first volume, titled Transforming Agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean: Challenges and Opportunities, examined how shifting climate, social, and economic pressures were reshaping the region’s food systems. The second, Food Systems at a Crossroads, explored the political economy of food and agriculture in Latin America, identifying core trade-offs and opportunities for policy innovation. The third volume, The Road to MC12, provided timely analysis ahead of the 12th World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Ministerial to highlight risks of fragmentation and Latin America’s potential to contribute to a reinvigorated multilateral system.

This fourth edition expands the conversation to include Africa, a region with growing importance in global agricultural trade debates. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and Africa face distinct realities, but they also share vulnerabilities and strategic interests. Both regions have significant agricultural potential, are highly exposed to trade-related shocks, and are seeking a fairer, more inclusive trade regime. This book aims to deepen understanding of how these regions are navigating a rapidly evolving global landscape and how they can contribute to shaping the future of agricultural trade.

Geopolitical changes and the new agricultural trade environment

In the previous edition of this book series, published in 2024 as a contribution to the 13th Ministerial Conference, one of our main themes was the profound geopolitical changes that were taking place in the world and its implications for the functioning of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and trade in general. Our analysis pointed to a progressive weakening of multilateral institutions and of the enforcement of multilateral trade rules. This was particularly noticeable among the large economies with considerable bargaining power. We warned that this trend risked a return to power-based bilateralism, at the expense of global cooperation.

Two years later, as we approach the 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) in Yaoundé, the geopolitical changes we were concerned about—and the threats to the rules-based multilateral trade system—have gained a scale and intensity that exceed even the most pessimistic forecasts. This crisis is fueled by a growing conviction in many advanced economies, led by the United States of America (US), that the current trade framework is outdated. The US perspective has shifted from supporting the system to actively disrupting it, citing chronic non-compliance, particularly by China, and the perceived failure of the WTO to address state-led economic models. As a result, the global landscape has shifted beyond potential risks, with increasing use of reciprocal tariffs and a gradual fragmentation of trade relationships.

Evolving trade instruments in a fragmented system

The global landscape for agricultural trade is going through deep transformations. In the face of persistent blockage in multilateral negotiations, growing geopolitical tensions, and national security considerations, governments are exploring alternative forms of cooperation. Alongside traditional bilateral and regional trade agreements, new collaborative arrangements are emerging in the form of plurilateral or sectoral approaches, informal coalitions, soft law initiatives, or agreed principles to deepen economic integration or advance specific trade agendas among like-minded partners. While these initiatives provide a space to test new ideas and approaches, which could inform future models of trade cooperation, they also contribute to growing fragmentation in the global agricultural trading system.

Africa’s key issues in WTO negotiations, MC14 and beyond

At the creation of the multilateral trading system in 1948, agriculture was formally covered by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), including principles such as tariff bindings and non-discrimination. In practice, however, agriculture remained largely exempt from strict multilateral disciplines, as governments maintained wide policy space to support domestic farm sectors through subsidies, price controls, and non-tariff measures. This flexibility largely reflected the concerns of major agricultural economies, while developing countries, including many in Africa, remained primarily exporters of primary commodities with limited influence over global rule-making.

Africa’s agricultural trade performance and structural barriers

Africa’s agricultural trade has been characterized by a persistent trade balance deficit over the past decade, with import bills consistently outpacing export revenues. With the world’s fastest growing population and weak domestic food systems, imports of agrifood products are increasing rapidly, raising the dependence of the continent on external markets and its exposure to global food price volatility. This vulnerability is compounded by the limited diversification of exports, which remain concentrated in a narrow range of primary commodities subject to significant price fluctuations, thereby contributing to macroeconomic instability.

At the same time, continent-wide initiatives such as the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aim to address these structural challenges. Both frameworks seek to strengthen agrifood systems, enhance productive capacities, promote value addition, and better align agricultural production with domestic and regional demand, ultimately contributing to more stable and resilient food markets.

In this context, expanding intra-African trade can provide significant benefits. Greater regional integration can stimulate economic growth through wider market access, foster regional value chains, and improve food security by enhancing the availability and affordability of food across borders. However, despite broad consensus on these potential benefits, the actual level and trajectory of intra-African agricultural trade remain subject to debate, partly due to data limitations and differences in measurement approaches.

This chapter, therefore, provides a comprehensive assessment of Africa’s agricultural trade performance over the past decade, examining both structural trends and persistent barriers that constrain diversification, competitiveness, and deeper regional integration.

Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African perspectives for post-MC14

The book Agricultural Trade at a Crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African Perspectives for Post‑MC14 examines how global agricultural trade is being reshaped by geopolitical tensions, limited progress with multilateral negotiations, and evolving economic priorities. It analyzes how these changes affect developing regions especially Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa highlighting challenges such as trade fragmentation, food security concerns, and structural barriers, while also exploring opportunities for competitiveness, regional integration, and innovation.

Large language models as measurement instruments in applied economics: A 10-country public-discourse panel on food and nutrition security in Africa, 2010–2025

Large language models (LLM) are increasingly used in applied economics to convert unstructured text into structured empirical measures. This paper examines their use as measurement instruments through a 10-country public-discourse panel on food and nutrition security in Africa from 2010 to 2025. The panel covers Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, and contains 206 document-level records drawn from public early-warning, humanitarian, government, and technical sources. Each record is organized by country, date, source type, geography, benchmark type, benchmark phase where available, leakage risk, and a set of generated coding variables describing food-security dimension, text severity, narrative frame, tone, attribution, and evidence type. The paper treats LLM-coded outputs not as ground truth, but as generated variables subject to measurement error, source-selection bias, benchmark leakage, and uncertainty arising from incomplete or uneven source text. A conservative validation sample is limited to records with completed source-grounded excerpts, while an exploratory validation sample uses the broader metadata-supported corpus to examine phase coverage across benchmark categories. The results illustrate both the promise and the limits of LLM-assisted public-discourse measurement. Public documents can be transformed into transparent, auditable indicators of food-security stress, but their validity depends on document sampling, excerpt quality, benchmark independence, source diversity, and careful distinction between technical classifications and independent discourse. The paper contributes to the emerging literature on LLMs in economics by shifting attention from general productivity uses toward the practical conditions under which LLM-assisted text measurement can support applied research and policy analysis.

A reproducibility package accompanies the study and includes the coded data, validation samples, codebook, data dictionary, AI-use disclosure, leakage documentation, and scripts for reproducing the descriptive results.

2026 Sudan conflict conference: Three years of conflict in Sudan: What the evidence tells us and what recovery requires – Conference proceedings

The 2026 Sudan Conflict Conference, organized by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Cairo and held on 14 and 15 April, brought together researchers, policymakers, and development partners to discuss the impacts of Sudan’s protracted conflict on the nation’s economy and agrifood systems and to identify evidence‑based pathways for recovery. This proceedings report documents the key evidence, discussions, and policy insights generated during the conference, capturing technical research, operational perspectives, and contextual nuances. Three years into the crisis, Sudan faces a systemic breakdown affecting agricultural production, markets, institutions, and human capital, leaving more than half of the population in need of humanitarian assistance.

Evidence presented during the conference highlighted severe disruptions to agrifood systems and increasingly fragmented markets, with food insecurity driven primarily by affordability and accessibility constraints. While firms and households have shown adaptive capacity, these responses to the conflict remain constrained and often rely on unsustainable coping strategies, including asset depletion and reduced investment. Displacement continues to deepen vulnerability but also offers the potential for increased economic integration supported by inclusive approaches, while the erosion of health and education systems poses serious long‑term risks to human capital and growth.

Across the conference sessions, a clear consensus emerged on the need for integrated, system‑wide responses that link humanitarian assistance with recovery and development interventions. Agriculture and market systems were identified as critical entry points, while cash assistance is most effective when combined with livelihood and market support. Moving forward, the recovery of the nation’s economy and agrifood systems coming out of the conflict will require coordinated strategies to restore markets, rebuild livelihoods, invest in human capital, and strengthen data‑driven decision-making, supported by sustained international engagement and locally grounded approaches.

Land tenure security, crop choices, and agricultural input investment decisions: Evidence from nationally representative data in Nigeria

Land tenure security is widely regarded as essential for agricultural investment and productivity growth. However, causal evidence on its effects across multiple farm decisions remains limited, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. This study investigates how tenure security is associated with crop portfolio choices and input investment decisions among smallholder farmers in rural Nigeria. It measures tenure security using a composite index, drawn from wave 5 of the Nigeria Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA), that captures plot-level perceived security of ownership, and household reported risk of land loss, ownership security, and duration of ownership. The study employs two complementary approaches: a multivariate probit model to capture the joint and correlated nature of crop adoption decisions, and limited information maximum likelihood instrumental variables (LIML-IV) estimation to establish association between land tenure and input investment decisions. Results reveal significant but heterogeneous effects. Greater tenure security increases the probability of cultivating grains and cereals by 29.8 percentage points, while reducing the likelihood of growing legumes and pulses by 24.6 percentage points and horticulture by 11.4 percentage points respectively, which suggests a substitution effect toward grain specialization. On input investments, LIML-IV estimates indicate that a one-unit increase in the tenure security index raises organic fertilizer use by 9.93 percent, inorganic fertilizer use by 6.57 percent, and pesticide use by approximately 0.89 percent. These findings are robust to Lewbel’s heteroskedasticity-based identification strategy. Heterogeneity analysis reveals stronger investment effects among youth-headed households, while impacts on female-managed plots are statistically insignificant, pointing to persistent gender barriers. The study highlights the need for integrated policies that combine tenure formalization with crop diversification support, gender- and youth-sensitive land governance, and input market development in order to maximize the productivity gains from land rights reform in Nigeria.

Iran war supply chain disruptions: Impacts on India’s economy

Key takeaways

• India’s economy is highly exposed to fuel and fertilizer supply disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an economic modeling analysis shows.

• GDP and household incomes fall across all modeled scenarios. Higher input costs and supply disruptions hit farmers hardest and slow overall economic growth.

• Technology offers the most effective policy path to cushion the blow and build resilience. Improving fertilizer efficiency can limit losses while avoiding large subsidy-driven fiscal pressures.

The emerging role of AI tools in smallholder finance

Key takeaways

• AI can expand access to finance for smallholders, a key element of food system transformation . AI tools can improve risk assessment, lower costs, and help lenders reach farmers without traditional credit histories.

• Real-world applications show strong potential. Tools using satellite data, machine learning, and digital images are increasing credit uptake, insurance adoption, and investment decisions.

• Risks and gaps must be addressed. Limited data, unequal access—especially for women—and weak governance can deepen exclusion without responsible design and oversight.

The potential of solar-powered irrigation in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from irrigation water pumping in Kenya

This policy note presents the main findings from an IFPRI forecasting analysis that quantifies the potential for reducing GHG emissions through the adoption of solar-powered irrigation systems in Kenya. The study focuses specifically on groundwater irrigation systems, where energy consumption for water pumping is typically concentrated.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: May 2026

Sudan Market Prices and Availability Report

Nigeria’s fuel, fertilizer, and food prices feel the strain of the Iran conflict

Nigeria is once again under economic pressure from a shock that originated far from its borders, as it faces high global fuel and fertilizer prices triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. For a country still recovering from the inflationary aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war, the timing could hardly be worse. The shock is reaching Nigeria through three tightly linked channels, fuel, fertilizer, and food, and it threatens to reverse a hard-won decline in food inflation.

Vegetable intake among women of reproductive age in northern Tanzania: Baseline findings from the FRESH end-to-end evaluation

Adequate intake of fruit and vegetables (F&V) is fundamental to meeting micronutrient requirements, reducing the risk of diet-related noncommunicable diseases, and supporting overall health and well-being. The World Health Organization recommends a minimum daily intake of 400 g of F&V, whereas the Tanzania Food-Based Dietary Guidelines (FBDGs) advise a daily intake of approximately 280 g each of fruit and vegetables to promote healthy living. Intake of F&V in Tanzania and many other low- and middle-income countries, however, remains substantially below recommended levels. In sub-Saharan Africa, diets are frequently dominated by staple cereals and tubers, with limited dietary diversity and low intake of nutrient-dense foods, including F&V. In Tanzania, women of reproductive age (WRA) are at high risk of micronutrient deficiencies, including iron, folate, vitamins A, C and B12. These inadequacies impair immune function, increase susceptibility to infection, and contribute to iron-deficiency anaemia, fatigue, and reduced productivity. During pregnancy, poor micronutrient status elevates the risk of maternal morbidity, preterm birth, low birth weight, and impaired fetal growth. During lactation, inadequate status may reduce the micronutrient content of breast milk, potentially compromising infant growth and immune function.

Pre- and postharvest losses and their correlates in the Irish potato value chain in Kenya

Food losses are a major constraint to agricultural productivity, farm incomes, and agrifood system efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa, yet comprehensive micro-level evidence across value chains remains limited. This study provides a detailed assessment of pre- and postharvest losses in the Irish potato value chain in Kenya, drawing on purposefully collected data from producers, aggregators and processors. Using a consistent, multidimensional measurement framework, the study captures both quantitative (physical) and qualitative (degradation) losses across production and postharvest stages.

The results indicate that potato losses are widespread and occur throughout the value chain, with the largest share concentrated at the producer level. Preharvest losses and on-farm postharvest losses account for a substantial proportion (23.5 percent) of total losses, reflecting the combined effects of pest and disease pressures, weather-related shocks, and suboptimal management practices. Nationally, producer-level potato losses could amount to KSh 14.5 billion annually, equivalent to the annual per capita income of about 50,000 Kenyans. While producer-level losses dominate, descriptive evidence shows that potato aggregators and processors also incur nonnegligible losses, particularly during storage, transportation, and handling. These losses are commonly associated with spillage, mechanical damage, inadequate storage conditions, and poor handling practices, highlighting inefficiencies beyond the farm gate.

Econometric results reveal that loss patterns vary across producers and production environments. Differences in demographic characteristics, farm size, labor availability, and market orientation contribute to heterogeneity in both the likelihood and intensity of losses. These results further demonstrate that asset ownership, management practices, and exposure to production risks are key determinants of loss outcomes. Greater household assets and labor availability are associated with reduced loss incidence and intensity, while exposure to biotic and abiotic stressors – captured through a composite index – significantly increases both the probability and severity of preharvest losses.

Input use and management practices also play an important role. The application of chemical fertilizers is associated with reduced loss intensity, consistent with improved crop vigor and resilience, while the use of pest control is positively correlated with loss occurrence, likely reflecting reactive application following infestation. The adoption of improved seed varieties increases the likelihood of losses but reduces the intensity of them, which is a nuanced finding that suggests both greater exposure and improved resilience conditional on damage. Access to training and third-party agricultural service is associated with lower losses, underscoring the importance of knowledge and advisory support. This area also presents opportunities for youth, particularly young women, to engage in agrifood-system service provision through activities such as advisory services, quality management, aggregation, and postharvest handling, which can simultaneously reduce losses and generate income. Importantly, the analysis reveals strong linkages between preharvest and postharvest losses. Higher preharvest losses are associated with both increased likelihood and greater severity of postharvest losses, indicating that damage incurred during production propagates along the value chain.

Overall, potato losses in Kenya are systemic but largely preventable through improved handling, storage, market infrastructure, and farmer capacity. Although youth sample sizes in this study are too small to quantify specific effects, the data highlight clear entry points for engaging youth, particularly young women, in reducing post-harvest losses. For instance, there are opportunities for involving youths in services offered at the production stage, which include sorting, curing, and transportation.

Effects of the Iran conflict on fuel, fertilizer, and food prices in Nigeria

Nigeria faces a new wave of economic pressure from the ongoing Iran conflict, with disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz causing sharp increases in global oil and fertilizer prices and threatening to reverse the recent decline in Nigeria’s food inflation. Although Nigeria could benefit from higher oil and fertilizer export revenues due to its expanding domestic refining and urea production capacity, the country remains heavily dependent on imported refined fuel, potash, phosphate, and other fertilizer inputs. Rising transport, logistics, and production costs are already increasing pressure on farmers, food systems, and household welfare. At the same time, however, the crisis presents a strategic opportunity for Nigeria to strengthen domestic refining, expand fertilizer production, deepen regional trade, and reposition itself as a major supplier of fuel and fertilizer across Africa.

Can local procurement for food aid foster market development? Evidence from indirect conditional contracting in Uganda

Smallholder farmers in low-income countries often operate in fragmented markets characterized by volatile prices, weak bargaining power, and limited incentives to invest in productivity and quality. Large institutional buyers procuring locally can reshape these conditions by creating structured demand and embedding sourcing requirements in contracts with intermediaries, potentially transmitting incentives upstream to farmers. This study evaluates a maize procurement policy introduced in 2021 by a major institutional buyer in Uganda that required its large trader-aggregator suppliers to source at least 20 percent of deliveries directly from smallholder farmers through “indirect conditional contracting.” Using survey data collected in 2024 from nearly 1,300 smallholder farmers and nearly 300 aggregators across six districts, we estimate effects on prices, technology adoption, quality upgrading, welfare, and resilience. Intent-to-treat (ITT) estimates show that residing in areas where the major buyer operates is associated with 5–6 percent higher farmgate prices on average, with instrumental variable (IV) estimates suggesting upper bound premiums of up to 45 percent. Farmers in the conditional contract group earn positive net returns and increase adoption of improved inputs and postharvest practices. Intermediary aggregators receive about 7 (ITT) to 30 (IV) percent lower selling prices but increase adoption of postharvest quality practices. Mediation analysis indicates that gains for farmers arise primarily through increased competition between intermediaries. However, downstream welfare outcomes remain inconclusive, with suggestive evidence that non-participating farmers in treatment areas may face lower prices due to market segmentation. Overall, our findings show that indirect conditional contracts can reshape value chain incentives by attracting intermediaries, increasing competition, and stimulating upstream investment, even as they generate uneven distributional effects.

Gender asset-ownership gap, women’s agency, and its implications for household inequality: Evidence from Nigeria

he gender asset-ownership gap remains a persistent barrier to inclusive economic growth. While women contribute significantly to agricultural production and household welfare, they continue to face constraints in accessing and controlling productive assets such as land and non-land resources. Using nationally representative panel data from the Nigeria Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) waves 4 and 5, this study examines the role of women’s productive asset ownership and empowerment in shaping household income inequality in rural Nigeria. Descriptive evidence shows persistently high intrahousehold inequality, with intrahousehold Gini coefficients averaging approximately 0.70 across survey rounds, despite a modest decline between 2018/19 and 2023/24. Regional patterns reveal particularly pronounced inequality in the North East, where income distributions are heavily skewed and most households exhibit extreme intrahousehold disparities. Employing fixed effects regressions and Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions, the analysis yields three key findings. First, women’s land share is associated with reduced intrahousehold income inequality, but this effect is modest and conditional. It becomes meaningful primarily in households where women control more than half of total household farmland, suggesting that small and fragmented landholdings offer limited inequality-reducing potential on their own. Women’s control over income and participation in agricultural decision-making emerge as additional and consistently significant drivers of reduced intrahousehold inequality. Second, women’s land share has a significant and positive effect on women’s income share, with a 10 percentage point increase in female-managed farmland associated with approximately a 0.76 percentage point increase in women’s share of household income; women’s income control and agricultural decision-making further amplify this effect. Third, Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions reveal that households where women own productive assets have significantly lower intrahousehold inequality and higher women’s income shares than those where no woman owns an asset, with differences driven primarily by disparities in women’s income control and decision-making authority rather than asset ownership alone. This shifts the policy debate from simply closing gender asset gaps to ensuring women’s assets are productive and consolidated with genuine economic agency.

The early bird gets the cash: Early notification and conditional cash transfers for secondary school

What is the optimal timing for a cash transfer targeting increased secondary school enrollment? We present evidence from a randomized trial in rural Ethiopia showing a CCT increases enrollment and reduces child marriage. The largest effects are observed for youth offered the transfer a year prior to their (potential) matriculation; in this cohort, there is also a significant in-crease in the probability students pass the primary school leaving exam. By contrast, reduced treatment effects are observed for prior dropouts, and a generalized random forest analysis suggests this primarily reflects different observable characteristics (lower academic performance) among this sub-sample.

Soil tests, vouchers, and the limits of site-specific fertilizer recommendations: Experimental evidence from Malawi

Fertilizer subsidy programmes dominate agricultural spending in several African countries. Rising and volatile fertilizer prices have renewed concerns about the efficiency of such spending, prompting initiatives to tailor fertilizer recommendations to local soil conditions. We test this premise in Malawi, where the national subsidy programme distributes a standard package of urea and NPK fertilizer. In a cluster-randomized trial involving more than 2,000 households across 113 villages, we assign farmers to (i) a plot-level soil-test recommendation, (ii) the same recommendation combined with a voucher of subsidy-equivalent value, or (iii) a control group. The recommendation alone has no effect on fertilizer use, input choice, or maize yields. When paired with a voucher, fertilizer use and maize yields increase substantially, with yields rising by roughly one-third; at the maize prices prevailing in our study area, however, the value of this additional production falls short of the face value of the voucher, let alone the value of the voucher plus the cost of individualized soil test. For farmers themselves the package is nonetheless profitable, since the voucher largely displaces fertilizer they would have bought anyway and so lowers their own input spending, and because many households are net maize buyers, valuing the additional output at retail rather than farmgate prices narrows the shortfall. The yield gains do not reflect adoption of site-specific prescriptions: voucher recipients predominantly purchase urea and NPK in proportions closely matching the standard subsidy bundle, regardless of what their soil test recommends, and compliance with recommended alternatives such as potassium, lime, or calcium ammonium nitrate is negligible. Because the observed gains come almost entirely from nitrogen intensification while phosphorus, potassium, and lime gaps remain uncorrected, the measured yield response is a lower bound on what full-compliance fertilization could deliver. Relaxing financial constraints thus increases input use and productivity, but information alone does not redirect behaviour toward precision fertilization. Effective subsidy reform will require addressing broader supply- and demand-side constraints, including input availability, farmer familiarity with recommended products, and the practical implementation of site-specific recommendations, not only improving agronomic information.

Women as shock absorbers: Gendered costs of the global fuel and fertilizer crisis

Key takeaways

• Women and girls in many countries are bearing the brunt of rising fuel and fertilizer prices triggered by the Iran war.

• Higher costs strain agrifood systems and exacerbate existing gender inequalities, further limiting women’s access to inputs, income, and food security.

• Gender-blind policy responses widen gender gaps. Subsidies and relief measures can exclude women, highlighting the need for more inclusive, long-term solutions.

When quality (doesn’t) pay: Evidence from two experiments in Uganda

Quality in agri-food supply chains is often unobservable at first sale and early aggregation limits traceability, weakening incentives for quality provision. We study whether making milk quality visible and traceable creates a market for quality in Uganda’s dairy sector. Increasing observability reduces adulteration and improves quality, but no premium emerges. In a follow-up experiment, we introduce trader quality premiums. This increases quality when binding, yet informed intermediaries capture the gains and farm-gate prices do not rise. Observability is necessary but insufficient: without downstream demand for quality and pass-through by intermediaries, incentives for quality upgrading remain weak.

Targeting of beneficiaries in chemical fertilizer subsidy programs: State of knowledge and evidence gaps

Low- and middle-income countries are under increasing fiscal pressure to rationalize spending on fertilizer subsidy programs. Policy reforms shifting expenditure away from subsidies can have beneficial impacts given the well-documented distortionary market effects and negative environmental externalities of fertilizer subsidies. However, such reforms also result in losses and often lower fertilizer use for current beneficiaries. Understanding who is impacted by reform thus requires an assessment of who is currently benefiting, yet there is little systematic work understanding who these programs currently benefit both on paper and in practice. In this paper, we identify low- and middle- income countries with active fertilizer subsidy programs, and characterize the targeting regime of each program based on both explicit and implicit criteria determining eligibility. Then in a selection of case studies, we explore which individuals are receiving subsidy benefits in practice. We find that while many fertilizer subsidy programs are designed as universal, in many countries there are implicit targeting criteria embedded in the way subsidy programs are implemented and/or informal targeting induced by supply shortfalls. Further, we find evidence that regardless of targeting regime, the targeting of subsidy programs is generally pro-poor, driven by the fact that the poor are often concentrated in the agricultural sector.

Integrating Earth observation and digital tools for agricultural mapping and monitoring: The Mozambique case study

Accurate and timely agricultural data are vital in low- and middle-income countries for effective national planning, informed food policy decisions, and progress toward achieving sustainable development goal (SDG) 2 (zero hunger). Annual field surveys are costly, time-consuming, hampered by weak infrastructure, and vulnerable to extreme weather. This article presents the architecture developed in the statistics from space project, which integrates Earth observation (EO) data, digital tools for field-data collection, and a cloud-based aggregation and visualization platform to propose a cost-effective solution for efficient agricultural monitoring. The workflow was tested in Mozambique and includes: first, an EO-based sampling-frame methodology for heterogeneous agro-landscapes, second, an open-source smartphone application for efficient, geo-referenced field data collection, third, a data-aggregation and visualization system for real-time quality monitoring and national-level dissemination, and fourth, automated methods for EO-based crop type mapping. The project delivered a comprehensive framework for integrating EO and digital technologies into efficient and scalable workflows. High-resolution crop type maps (openly accessible) and statistics were generated for the main crops in three pilot provinces, Gaza, Manica, and Zambezia, for the 2024/25 season.

Are subsidies the solution for ‘costly’ small-scale irrigation technologies?

Key takeaways

• Irrigation subsidies alone rarely solve smallholder adoption challenges. Evidence shows high upfront costs are only one of several constraints.

• Multiple barriers limit uptake beyond price. Water access, information gaps, and supply constraints often matter just as much or more.

• Falling costs for solar irrigation technologies, targeted subsidies, and creating an enabling environment for adoption offer promising alternatives.

Current Agro-Based Transformation and Its Future in East and Southern Africa

When climate shocks reduce harvests, children pay the price: Evidence from Nigeria

Key takeaways

• A study in Nigeria links climate shocks such as droughts and extreme weather to increased rates of stunting and other poor outcomes for children’s health.

• Associated declines in farm production affect children’s diets and health during a critical period of development, with impacts strongest for vulnerable households.

• Policy action to address this connection is urgently needed, including strengthening climate-resilient agriculture and improving market access.

Financial inclusion for youth in agrifood systems: Gendered barriers and solutions in northern Nigeria

Nigeria is home to one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing youth populations aged 15–35, yet financial exclusion continues to sideline young people, particularly young women, from fully participating in agrifood systems. When women control financial resources, they generate multiplier effects across the food system.

In northern Nigeria, where more than half the population remains unbanked, the stakes are especially high. This research note draws on evidence from two complementary IFPRI studies to examine the financial inclusion experiences of young women and young men in northern Nigeria and identify practical, gender-sensitive solutions.

AICCRA institutionalizes training on gender-responsive cost-benefit analysis of climate information services within two Africa-wide capacity development institutions

Between 2021 and 2025, Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) developed and piloted a gender-responsive cost–benefit analysis (CBA) methodology for Climate Information Services (CIS) in Africa. Through methodological research, a toolkit, and stakeholder consultations, the approach was tested in Kenya and subsequently integrated into selected training programs at the Institute for Meteorological Training and Research (IMTR). Course materials were also made available through the Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture (RUFORUM) Regional e-Learning Platform, providing access for use in academic and professional training contexts.

Cost–benefit analysis of WFP’s integrated resilience programme in Chad (2018–2023)

1. Integrated resilience programming (IRP) works. The IRP significantly improved household food security, with participating households recording an average 6.6 point increase in Food Consumption Scores (FCS) and reduced reliance on negative coping strategies, and increased resilience capacities, compared with nonparticipants, underscoring the value of multisectoral, layered interventions.

2. High economic returns are achievable in fragile contexts. Overall, the IRP delivered a benefitcost ratio (BCR) of 3.98, meaning every US$1 invested generated nearly US$4 in measurable benefits.

3. Nutrition interventions (treatment of acute malnutrition and blanket supplementary feeding) yield the strongest returns. Treatment of acute malnutrition and preventive nutrition support for women and children produced BCRs ranging from 6:1 to 9:1, validating global evidence on the cost-effectiveness of nutrition investments.

4. Knowledge-based and community-led interventions are transformative. Training and sensitization activities achieved the highest BCR (20:1) for resilience outcomes, highlighting the long-term payoffs of behavior change, empowerment, and knowledge transfer activities.

5. Cereal banks, particularly when combined with Food Assistance for Assets (FFA) through cash transfers, contributed to improved food security and resilience outcomes. The Cereal Bank + FFA Cash Transfers combination achieved balanced gains across key indicators (FCS +9.2, rCSI –3.4, RCS +10.4), highlighting its role in stabilizing seasonal food availability and access. However, despite these outcome improvements, the cost-effectiveness was modest, with BCRs ranging from 0.4 to 0.6—suggesting that while the intervention supports resilience, its financial return per dollar invested may be limited under current implementation models.

6. Bundled interventions outperform stand-alone ones. Layered approaches—particularly FFA Cash Transfers combined with School Feeding—produced the largest FCS gains (+5.7 points; BCR = 2.85), reinforcing WFP’s integrated “three-pronged approach” to resilience-building.

7. Short-term transfers remain essential but less cost-efficient. Lean season food and cash distributions provided vital relief but yielded lower long-term returns (BCR < 1), emphasizing the need to balance immediate humanitarian needs with investments in sustainability. 8. Strategic scaling of high-return interventions is crucial. Scaling nutrition, training, and cereal bank programs, while optimizing the design and sequencing of combined packages, could maximize impact per dollar spent and strengthen resilience dividends. 9. Resilience is a smart investment. The findings demonstrate that resilience programming is not only a humanitarian necessity but also a financially sound strategy—reducing long-term aid dependency, improving livelihoods, and fostering local self-reliance across fragile environments in Chad. 10. Short-term coping behavior responds more slowly than food security and resilience capacity outcomes, highlighting the need for sustained and sequenced support. While IRP interventions generated significant improvements in food consumption and resilience capacity, reductions in severe coping strategies were not observed in the short term. This underscores that behavioral change lags behind stabilization and capacity-building gains, and that resilience impacts should be assessed over longer horizons rather than through immediate reductions in negative coping alone.

Changing rural labor markets and welfare in Malawi

Cash transfers relax climate-induced mobility constraints in Kenya

The use of migration as an adaptation strategy is now recognized by scholars and policymakers as a key response to climate change. Cash transfer programs, now being implemented worldwide, also have the potential to facilitate adaptation and promote resilience in low- and middle-income countries. We investigate the extent to which a cash transfer program in Kenya promoted the mobility of household members due to climate shocks, leveraging exogenous variation in local deviations from the historical climate and the administration of the program through a randomized controlled trial. Our findings indicate that beneficiary households were less likely to reduce migration amid cold spells, likely via shifts in education-related migration. We also find that heat spells ubiquitously encourage new members to join the household, while cold spells have the opposite effect, and that cash transfers do not appear to alter these relationships. Together the results suggest that cold spells can trap migrants in temperate, low-resource settings and that cash transfers can partially alleviate these constraints. Modeling migration and complementary strategies in the presence of climate tipping points will become necessary to predict when more permanent migration will be triggered and modifying social assistance will become necessary.

Youth in relation to agroecology: practices, promises, and perceptions in five countries

In the context of rising youth populations in many low- and middle-income countries, coupled with high youth unemployment and aging farmer populations, this paper asks in what ways agroecology, as a sustainable alternative to the conventional agricultural practices and paradigm, attracts youth to farming and rural-based livelihoods. We draw on empirical data from semi-structured interviews and photovoice conducted with young women and men in five countries: Kenya, India, Peru, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe. In our discussion, we highlight which dimensions and aspects of agroecology resonate with youth and why.

Targeting social assistance in fragile settings: An experiment in community-based targeting

Political economy of planting for food and jobs input subsidy policy process in Ghana: An application of the Kaleidoscope Model

The Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) input subsidy policy was Ghana’s flagship agricultural programme from 2017 to 2025, designed to increase agricultural productivity, enhance food security, create jobs, and improve rural livelihoods through targeted support to smallholder farmers. Despite its prominence, there has been little systematic analysis of the political economy of the policy process that shaped it. This study applies the Kaleidoscope Model of Policy Change (KM), a framework developed for analysing development policy processes, to examine how the PFJ input subsidy policy was placed on the agenda, designed, adopted, and implemented. A qualitative research design was employed, involving 50 key informant interviews with policymakers, programme implementers, farmer-based organisations, and development partners, alongside two focus group discussions with farmers. Data were coded and analysed thematically using the KM framework to identify drivers, enablers, and constraints across the different stages of the policy process. The findings indicate that focusing events and policy coalitions were crucial in placing PFJ on the agenda. Policy design was influenced by the urgency of addressing declining productivity, ideological factors, and cost–benefit assessments. Adoption was shaped by the authority of advocates, the limited resistance of veto players, and favourable political timing, reflecting the perception that presidential initiatives often become policy priorities. Implementation, although constrained by budget shortfalls and logistical challenges, benefited from institutional capacity, budgetary allocations, and sustained advocacy. Overall, PFJ reached its target number of beneficiaries, raised productivity, enhanced food security, created jobs, and reduced dependence on food imports, despite only 69% of planned resources being released. However, limited tailored support for youth and women remains a key gap. The study demonstrates the value of political economy analysis for agricultural policy and recommends structured engagement with the private sector in subsidized input delivery from agenda setting through to implementation.

Adding small quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements to an enhanced homestead food production program improves child hemoglobin, iron and vitamin A status in rural Burkina Faso: A cluster randomized controlled trial

Background
Enhanced homestead food production programs (EHFP) including nutrition behavior change communication and women’s empowerment activities have limited impacts on child nutrition. This may be due to short program duration or the absence of interventions to improve water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) and access to nutritious foods.

Objective
We assessed impacts on child anemia, micronutrient status and anthropometry of prior village exposure to an EHFP, and of adding WASH alone or WASH with daily small quantity-lipid based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS).

Design
This 2y longitudinal cluster-randomized controlled trial (2014-2016) included 60 villages in Burkina Faso randomized to four groups (15 per group): (1) EHFP-2014, (2) EHFP-2014+WASH, (3) EHFP-2010+WASH, and (4) EHFP-2010+WASH+SQ-LNS. Groups 3 and 4 had previously received EHFP (2010-2012). We assessed impacts on child anemia and micronutrient status (n=1,704; 3-12.9 mo at baseline) and anthropometry (n=2,308; 0-12.9 mo at baseline) using difference-in-difference (DID) specifications. We controlled for covariates, adjusted for clustering, and assessed interactive effects by child age at baseline. The trial was registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02236468).

Results
We found no impact of prior exposure to EHFP (groups 2 vs 3) on the outcomes examined. Adding WASH (groups 1 vs 2) reduced anemia (hemoglobin (Hb)<11 g/dL) (DID=9.43 pp, p<0.01) and led to a decline in weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) (DID -0.11±0.04, p=0.01). Adding SQ-LNS (groups 3 vs 4) increased Hb (DID=0.26±0.13 g/dL, p<0.05), plasma ferritin (DID=7.61±2.69 μg/L, p<0.01), and retinol binding protein (DID=0.07±0.02 umol/L, p<0.01) concentrations. Effects were larger in children <6 mo at baseline, where providing SQ-LNS (>6 mo) positively impacted Hb, plasma ferritin, height-for-age Z-score, WAZ, and underweight.

Conclusions
Using EHFP to deliver WASH and SQ-LNS reduced child anemia and improved micronutrient status. Anthropometric improvements were found in children who joined the program before 6 mo of age and were exposed for the whole complementary feeding period.

Role of credit access, improved varieties, and gender dynamics in commercialization of cassava seeds in Nigeria

Cassava seed entrepreneurship is critical for strengthening seed systems and advancing agricultural transformation in Nigeria. This study examines the determinants of smallholder participation in cassava seed entrepreneurship and simulates the effects of targeted policy interventions using survey data from 993 cassava farmers in Benue State. The analysis applies a binary logit framework with counterfactual scenario simulations and production-regime, specific estimations to account for heterogeneity between low- and high-productivity environments, alongside additional robustness checks. The results show that access to credit (dy/dx = 13.2%, p <0.01), adoption of improved cassava varieties (dy/dx = 14.3%, p < 0.01), use of an area-calculation mobile application (dy/dx = 7.1%, p < 0.05), and access to extension services (dy/dx = 5.2%, p < 0.05) significantly increase the likelihood of participation in cassava seed entrepreneurship. Gender-disaggregated analysis indicates that male farmers have a modest but meaningful advantage (β = 0.92, dy/dx = 5.8%), reflecting differential access to productive resources and institutional support. The production-regime analysis reveals important structural differences in participation drivers. In low-productivity environments, participation is primarily constrained by financial capital, with credit access emerging as the dominant determinant. In contrast, in high-productivity environments, participation is more strongly influenced by technological complementarities, particularly adoption of improved varieties, digital decision-support tools, and extension services that enhance productivity and market coordination. These findings highlight that entrepreneurial engagement is context-dependent rather than uniform across farming systems. Policy simulations further indicate that the joint provision of credit and improved varieties could increase participation probabilities by 36.1 percentage points for men, 32.0 percentage points for youth (≤35 years), and 25.8 percentage points for women, demonstrating substantial untapped entrepreneurial potential among women and youth if structural barriers are relaxed. As part of the robustness analysis, conflict exposure, used as a proxy for local political instability, shows a positive and statistically significant association with participation, suggesting that farmers in conflict-affected environments may adopt cassava seed entrepreneurship as a resilience or income-diversification strategy. Consistency across alternative specifications confirms that institutional access, technological adoption, and productive capacity remain more decisive for participation than most demographic characteristics. Overall, the study underscores the need for gender and youth-responsive policies that integrate financial inclusion, technological support, institutional strengthening, context-sensitive interventions as well as attention to productivity regimes and local security conditions, to promote inclusive and resilient cassava seed systems in Nigeria.

C’est la vie! Mixed impacts of an edutainment television series in West Africa

Edutainment is a promising tool for changing behavior at scale, yet little is known about how to maximize impacts. We undertake an experimental evaluation of a popular West African television series, C’est la vie!, delivered through film clubs targeted at adolescent girls and young women in rural Senegal. We examine impacts on violence against women and girls and sexual and reproductive health. Results show C’est la vie! improved knowledge on both domains three months after film clubs ended, as well as violence-related attitudes nine months later, however, had no impact on behaviors. We investigate design components intended to strengthen impacts, generally finding no additional impacts from post-screening discussions, engaging men, and podcasts. Our findings suggest that edutainment is an engaging way to reach viewers on sensitive themes, however more evidence is needed on how to effectively deliver edutainment content for sustained behavior change at scale.

Assessing the development impacts of bio-innovations: The case of genetically modified maize and cassava in Tanzania

IFPRI: Africa strategy: Partnering for evidence-based transformation

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s Africa Strategy focuses on achieving impact through partnerships, research and evidence-building, capacity development, and innovative communication and knowledge sharing in support of Africa’s agenda for agrifood systems transformation. Building on decades of high-impact engagement at continental, regional, national, and subnational levels, IFPRI aims to sharpen and intensify its work in a rapidly transforming Africa. Through deepened partnerships with African institutions, IFPRI plans to help generate high-quality evidence to drive impact across Africa’s fast-changing agrifood systems and economies to support sustainable, inclusive economic growth and open new opportunities for a better future.

SAA’s Extension Model: Scaling Sustainable Farming in Nigeria

In Nigeria, scaling agricultural innovations faces a major enabling environment challenge. This includes weak national extension systems, low extension officer-to-farmer ratio (1:1,800–1:3,000) and ineffective input-output market linkages, limiting technology adoption, and value addition for smallholders. The Sasakawa Africa Association (SAA) addressed this through its Value-Chain Based Extension (VCBE) Models, including Commodity Association Trader-Trainers and post-harvest centers, fostering public-private partnerships to build capacity, improve group dynamics, and create aggregation hubs. This innovative extension model has mobilized agricultural produce valued at approximately USD 3.9 million and delivered significant impact for smallholder farmers. The approach has doubled maize yields—from traditional levels of 2,438 kg/ha to 4,823 kg/ha—while enhancing incomes for more than 455,200 farmers. These outcomes are strengthening both food security and economic resilience across participating communities.

Uncovering bottlenecks and innovative solutions for scaling small-scale irrigation through a system approach and design thinking: Evidence from Nigeria

CONTEXT
Small-scale irrigation (SSI) is central to food system transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa, yet its scaling remains low in Nigeria despite the apparent demand and policy narratives.

OBJECTIVE
Examine intermediary ‘missing middle’ barriers to SSI scaling and co-create solutions for socially inclusive, environmentally sustainable, and institutionally coherent scaling of SSI.

METHODS
We integrated Agricultural Innovation Systems (AIS) theory with a Human-Centered Design (HCD) approach to examine SSI diffusion in a Responsible Scaling lens. For qualitative study, a series of HCD workshops were conducted in three geographies (Kano, Oyo, and FCT) with a total of 85 stakeholders drawn from government institutions, financial organizations, and private irrigation technology suppliers. To complement qualitative insights, we analyzed the 2023 National Agricultural Sample Survey microdata to generate a national snapshot of irrigation prevalence, methods, and water sources. This is a nationally representative data from sample of 152,485 households and over 76 million agricultural plots included in the Nigeria National Agricultural Sample Survey (NASS) 2022/2023.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
The study demonstrates that Nigeria’s SSI bottlenecks stem not simply from farmer reluctance or technological ignorance but primarily from systemic intermediation failures across policy coordination, finance, and market supply chains—producing a “missing-middle” ecosystem. These failures include fragmented government mandates, high lender risk perceptions, weak supplier networks, gendered exclusion, and pervasive information gaps. Applying responsible scaling (RS) we show how scaling of SSI is being hindered by institutional fragmentation, liquidity constraints, gender exclusion, and data/information deficiency.

SIGNIFICANCE
The study presents co-created innovation pathways, including a national SSI coordination platform, blended-finance mechanisms, supplier hub models, and gender-responsive financing, mapped to AIS functions to guide responsible, inclusive, and climate-resilient scaling. The integrated AIS–HCD–RS approach advances system learning and participatory co-design and offers a practical methodology for responsible scaling of agricultural innovation.