Publications

Evolving trade instruments in a fragmented system

The global landscape for agricultural trade is going through deep transformations. In the face of persistent blockage in multilateral negotiations, growing geopolitical tensions, and national security considerations, governments are exploring alternative forms of cooperation. Alongside traditional bilateral and regional trade agreements, new collaborative arrangements are emerging in the form of plurilateral or sectoral approaches, informal coalitions, soft law initiatives, or agreed principles to deepen economic integration or advance specific trade agendas among like-minded partners. While these initiatives provide a space to test new ideas and approaches, which could inform future models of trade cooperation, they also contribute to growing fragmentation in the global agricultural trading system.

Africa’s key issues in WTO negotiations, MC14 and beyond

At the creation of the multilateral trading system in 1948, agriculture was formally covered by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), including principles such as tariff bindings and non-discrimination. In practice, however, agriculture remained largely exempt from strict multilateral disciplines, as governments maintained wide policy space to support domestic farm sectors through subsidies, price controls, and non-tariff measures. This flexibility largely reflected the concerns of major agricultural economies, while developing countries, including many in Africa, remained primarily exporters of primary commodities with limited influence over global rule-making.

Africa’s agricultural trade performance and structural barriers

Africa’s agricultural trade has been characterized by a persistent trade balance deficit over the past decade, with import bills consistently outpacing export revenues. With the world’s fastest growing population and weak domestic food systems, imports of agrifood products are increasing rapidly, raising the dependence of the continent on external markets and its exposure to global food price volatility. This vulnerability is compounded by the limited diversification of exports, which remain concentrated in a narrow range of primary commodities subject to significant price fluctuations, thereby contributing to macroeconomic instability.

At the same time, continent-wide initiatives such as the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aim to address these structural challenges. Both frameworks seek to strengthen agrifood systems, enhance productive capacities, promote value addition, and better align agricultural production with domestic and regional demand, ultimately contributing to more stable and resilient food markets.

In this context, expanding intra-African trade can provide significant benefits. Greater regional integration can stimulate economic growth through wider market access, foster regional value chains, and improve food security by enhancing the availability and affordability of food across borders. However, despite broad consensus on these potential benefits, the actual level and trajectory of intra-African agricultural trade remain subject to debate, partly due to data limitations and differences in measurement approaches.

This chapter, therefore, provides a comprehensive assessment of Africa’s agricultural trade performance over the past decade, examining both structural trends and persistent barriers that constrain diversification, competitiveness, and deeper regional integration.

Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African perspectives for post-MC14

The book Agricultural Trade at a Crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African Perspectives for Post‑MC14 examines how global agricultural trade is being reshaped by geopolitical tensions, limited progress with multilateral negotiations, and evolving economic priorities. It analyzes how these changes affect developing regions especially Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa highlighting challenges such as trade fragmentation, food security concerns, and structural barriers, while also exploring opportunities for competitiveness, regional integration, and innovation.

Large language models as measurement instruments in applied economics: A 10-country public-discourse panel on food and nutrition security in Africa, 2010–2025

Large language models (LLM) are increasingly used in applied economics to convert unstructured text into structured empirical measures. This paper examines their use as measurement instruments through a 10-country public-discourse panel on food and nutrition security in Africa from 2010 to 2025. The panel covers Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, and contains 206 document-level records drawn from public early-warning, humanitarian, government, and technical sources. Each record is organized by country, date, source type, geography, benchmark type, benchmark phase where available, leakage risk, and a set of generated coding variables describing food-security dimension, text severity, narrative frame, tone, attribution, and evidence type. The paper treats LLM-coded outputs not as ground truth, but as generated variables subject to measurement error, source-selection bias, benchmark leakage, and uncertainty arising from incomplete or uneven source text. A conservative validation sample is limited to records with completed source-grounded excerpts, while an exploratory validation sample uses the broader metadata-supported corpus to examine phase coverage across benchmark categories. The results illustrate both the promise and the limits of LLM-assisted public-discourse measurement. Public documents can be transformed into transparent, auditable indicators of food-security stress, but their validity depends on document sampling, excerpt quality, benchmark independence, source diversity, and careful distinction between technical classifications and independent discourse. The paper contributes to the emerging literature on LLMs in economics by shifting attention from general productivity uses toward the practical conditions under which LLM-assisted text measurement can support applied research and policy analysis.

A reproducibility package accompanies the study and includes the coded data, validation samples, codebook, data dictionary, AI-use disclosure, leakage documentation, and scripts for reproducing the descriptive results.

2026 Sudan conflict conference: Three years of conflict in Sudan: What the evidence tells us and what recovery requires – Conference proceedings

The 2026 Sudan Conflict Conference, organized by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Cairo and held on 14 and 15 April, brought together researchers, policymakers, and development partners to discuss the impacts of Sudan’s protracted conflict on the nation’s economy and agrifood systems and to identify evidence‑based pathways for recovery. This proceedings report documents the key evidence, discussions, and policy insights generated during the conference, capturing technical research, operational perspectives, and contextual nuances. Three years into the crisis, Sudan faces a systemic breakdown affecting agricultural production, markets, institutions, and human capital, leaving more than half of the population in need of humanitarian assistance.

Evidence presented during the conference highlighted severe disruptions to agrifood systems and increasingly fragmented markets, with food insecurity driven primarily by affordability and accessibility constraints. While firms and households have shown adaptive capacity, these responses to the conflict remain constrained and often rely on unsustainable coping strategies, including asset depletion and reduced investment. Displacement continues to deepen vulnerability but also offers the potential for increased economic integration supported by inclusive approaches, while the erosion of health and education systems poses serious long‑term risks to human capital and growth.

Across the conference sessions, a clear consensus emerged on the need for integrated, system‑wide responses that link humanitarian assistance with recovery and development interventions. Agriculture and market systems were identified as critical entry points, while cash assistance is most effective when combined with livelihood and market support. Moving forward, the recovery of the nation’s economy and agrifood systems coming out of the conflict will require coordinated strategies to restore markets, rebuild livelihoods, invest in human capital, and strengthen data‑driven decision-making, supported by sustained international engagement and locally grounded approaches.

Land tenure security, crop choices, and agricultural input investment decisions: Evidence from nationally representative data in Nigeria

Land tenure security is widely regarded as essential for agricultural investment and productivity growth. However, causal evidence on its effects across multiple farm decisions remains limited, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. This study investigates how tenure security is associated with crop portfolio choices and input investment decisions among smallholder farmers in rural Nigeria. It measures tenure security using a composite index, drawn from wave 5 of the Nigeria Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA), that captures plot-level perceived security of ownership, and household reported risk of land loss, ownership security, and duration of ownership. The study employs two complementary approaches: a multivariate probit model to capture the joint and correlated nature of crop adoption decisions, and limited information maximum likelihood instrumental variables (LIML-IV) estimation to establish association between land tenure and input investment decisions. Results reveal significant but heterogeneous effects. Greater tenure security increases the probability of cultivating grains and cereals by 29.8 percentage points, while reducing the likelihood of growing legumes and pulses by 24.6 percentage points and horticulture by 11.4 percentage points respectively, which suggests a substitution effect toward grain specialization. On input investments, LIML-IV estimates indicate that a one-unit increase in the tenure security index raises organic fertilizer use by 9.93 percent, inorganic fertilizer use by 6.57 percent, and pesticide use by approximately 0.89 percent. These findings are robust to Lewbel’s heteroskedasticity-based identification strategy. Heterogeneity analysis reveals stronger investment effects among youth-headed households, while impacts on female-managed plots are statistically insignificant, pointing to persistent gender barriers. The study highlights the need for integrated policies that combine tenure formalization with crop diversification support, gender- and youth-sensitive land governance, and input market development in order to maximize the productivity gains from land rights reform in Nigeria.

The potential of solar-powered irrigation in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from irrigation water pumping in Kenya

This policy note presents the main findings from an IFPRI forecasting analysis that quantifies the potential for reducing GHG emissions through the adoption of solar-powered irrigation systems in Kenya. The study focuses specifically on groundwater irrigation systems, where energy consumption for water pumping is typically concentrated.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: May 2026

Sudan Market Prices and Availability Report

Vegetable intake among women of reproductive age in northern Tanzania: Baseline findings from the FRESH end-to-end evaluation

Adequate intake of fruit and vegetables (F&V) is fundamental to meeting micronutrient requirements, reducing the risk of diet-related noncommunicable diseases, and supporting overall health and well-being. The World Health Organization recommends a minimum daily intake of 400 g of F&V, whereas the Tanzania Food-Based Dietary Guidelines (FBDGs) advise a daily intake of approximately 280 g each of fruit and vegetables to promote healthy living. Intake of F&V in Tanzania and many other low- and middle-income countries, however, remains substantially below recommended levels. In sub-Saharan Africa, diets are frequently dominated by staple cereals and tubers, with limited dietary diversity and low intake of nutrient-dense foods, including F&V. In Tanzania, women of reproductive age (WRA) are at high risk of micronutrient deficiencies, including iron, folate, vitamins A, C and B12. These inadequacies impair immune function, increase susceptibility to infection, and contribute to iron-deficiency anaemia, fatigue, and reduced productivity. During pregnancy, poor micronutrient status elevates the risk of maternal morbidity, preterm birth, low birth weight, and impaired fetal growth. During lactation, inadequate status may reduce the micronutrient content of breast milk, potentially compromising infant growth and immune function.

Pre- and postharvest losses and their correlates in the Irish potato value chain in Kenya

Food losses are a major constraint to agricultural productivity, farm incomes, and agrifood system efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa, yet comprehensive micro-level evidence across value chains remains limited. This study provides a detailed assessment of pre- and postharvest losses in the Irish potato value chain in Kenya, drawing on purposefully collected data from producers, aggregators and processors. Using a consistent, multidimensional measurement framework, the study captures both quantitative (physical) and qualitative (degradation) losses across production and postharvest stages.

The results indicate that potato losses are widespread and occur throughout the value chain, with the largest share concentrated at the producer level. Preharvest losses and on-farm postharvest losses account for a substantial proportion (23.5 percent) of total losses, reflecting the combined effects of pest and disease pressures, weather-related shocks, and suboptimal management practices. Nationally, producer-level potato losses could amount to KSh 14.5 billion annually, equivalent to the annual per capita income of about 50,000 Kenyans. While producer-level losses dominate, descriptive evidence shows that potato aggregators and processors also incur nonnegligible losses, particularly during storage, transportation, and handling. These losses are commonly associated with spillage, mechanical damage, inadequate storage conditions, and poor handling practices, highlighting inefficiencies beyond the farm gate.

Econometric results reveal that loss patterns vary across producers and production environments. Differences in demographic characteristics, farm size, labor availability, and market orientation contribute to heterogeneity in both the likelihood and intensity of losses. These results further demonstrate that asset ownership, management practices, and exposure to production risks are key determinants of loss outcomes. Greater household assets and labor availability are associated with reduced loss incidence and intensity, while exposure to biotic and abiotic stressors – captured through a composite index – significantly increases both the probability and severity of preharvest losses.

Input use and management practices also play an important role. The application of chemical fertilizers is associated with reduced loss intensity, consistent with improved crop vigor and resilience, while the use of pest control is positively correlated with loss occurrence, likely reflecting reactive application following infestation. The adoption of improved seed varieties increases the likelihood of losses but reduces the intensity of them, which is a nuanced finding that suggests both greater exposure and improved resilience conditional on damage. Access to training and third-party agricultural service is associated with lower losses, underscoring the importance of knowledge and advisory support. This area also presents opportunities for youth, particularly young women, to engage in agrifood-system service provision through activities such as advisory services, quality management, aggregation, and postharvest handling, which can simultaneously reduce losses and generate income. Importantly, the analysis reveals strong linkages between preharvest and postharvest losses. Higher preharvest losses are associated with both increased likelihood and greater severity of postharvest losses, indicating that damage incurred during production propagates along the value chain.

Overall, potato losses in Kenya are systemic but largely preventable through improved handling, storage, market infrastructure, and farmer capacity. Although youth sample sizes in this study are too small to quantify specific effects, the data highlight clear entry points for engaging youth, particularly young women, in reducing post-harvest losses. For instance, there are opportunities for involving youths in services offered at the production stage, which include sorting, curing, and transportation.

Effects of the Iran conflict on fuel, fertilizer, and food prices in Nigeria

Nigeria faces a new wave of economic pressure from the ongoing Iran conflict, with disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz causing sharp increases in global oil and fertilizer prices and threatening to reverse the recent decline in Nigeria’s food inflation. Although Nigeria could benefit from higher oil and fertilizer export revenues due to its expanding domestic refining and urea production capacity, the country remains heavily dependent on imported refined fuel, potash, phosphate, and other fertilizer inputs. Rising transport, logistics, and production costs are already increasing pressure on farmers, food systems, and household welfare. At the same time, however, the crisis presents a strategic opportunity for Nigeria to strengthen domestic refining, expand fertilizer production, deepen regional trade, and reposition itself as a major supplier of fuel and fertilizer across Africa.

Can local procurement for food aid foster market development? Evidence from indirect conditional contracting in Uganda

Smallholder farmers in low-income countries often operate in fragmented markets characterized by volatile prices, weak bargaining power, and limited incentives to invest in productivity and quality. Large institutional buyers procuring locally can reshape these conditions by creating structured demand and embedding sourcing requirements in contracts with intermediaries, potentially transmitting incentives upstream to farmers. This study evaluates a maize procurement policy introduced in 2021 by a major institutional buyer in Uganda that required its large trader-aggregator suppliers to source at least 20 percent of deliveries directly from smallholder farmers through “indirect conditional contracting.” Using survey data collected in 2024 from nearly 1,300 smallholder farmers and nearly 300 aggregators across six districts, we estimate effects on prices, technology adoption, quality upgrading, welfare, and resilience. Intent-to-treat (ITT) estimates show that residing in areas where the major buyer operates is associated with 5–6 percent higher farmgate prices on average, with instrumental variable (IV) estimates suggesting upper bound premiums of up to 45 percent. Farmers in the conditional contract group earn positive net returns and increase adoption of improved inputs and postharvest practices. Intermediary aggregators receive about 7 (ITT) to 30 (IV) percent lower selling prices but increase adoption of postharvest quality practices. Mediation analysis indicates that gains for farmers arise primarily through increased competition between intermediaries. However, downstream welfare outcomes remain inconclusive, with suggestive evidence that non-participating farmers in treatment areas may face lower prices due to market segmentation. Overall, our findings show that indirect conditional contracts can reshape value chain incentives by attracting intermediaries, increasing competition, and stimulating upstream investment, even as they generate uneven distributional effects.

Gender asset-ownership gap, women’s agency, and its implications for household inequality: Evidence from Nigeria

he gender asset-ownership gap remains a persistent barrier to inclusive economic growth. While women contribute significantly to agricultural production and household welfare, they continue to face constraints in accessing and controlling productive assets such as land and non-land resources. Using nationally representative panel data from the Nigeria Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) waves 4 and 5, this study examines the role of women’s productive asset ownership and empowerment in shaping household income inequality in rural Nigeria. Descriptive evidence shows persistently high intrahousehold inequality, with intrahousehold Gini coefficients averaging approximately 0.70 across survey rounds, despite a modest decline between 2018/19 and 2023/24. Regional patterns reveal particularly pronounced inequality in the North East, where income distributions are heavily skewed and most households exhibit extreme intrahousehold disparities. Employing fixed effects regressions and Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions, the analysis yields three key findings. First, women’s land share is associated with reduced intrahousehold income inequality, but this effect is modest and conditional. It becomes meaningful primarily in households where women control more than half of total household farmland, suggesting that small and fragmented landholdings offer limited inequality-reducing potential on their own. Women’s control over income and participation in agricultural decision-making emerge as additional and consistently significant drivers of reduced intrahousehold inequality. Second, women’s land share has a significant and positive effect on women’s income share, with a 10 percentage point increase in female-managed farmland associated with approximately a 0.76 percentage point increase in women’s share of household income; women’s income control and agricultural decision-making further amplify this effect. Third, Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions reveal that households where women own productive assets have significantly lower intrahousehold inequality and higher women’s income shares than those where no woman owns an asset, with differences driven primarily by disparities in women’s income control and decision-making authority rather than asset ownership alone. This shifts the policy debate from simply closing gender asset gaps to ensuring women’s assets are productive and consolidated with genuine economic agency.

The early bird gets the cash: Early notification and conditional cash transfers for secondary school

What is the optimal timing for a cash transfer targeting increased secondary school enrollment? We present evidence from a randomized trial in rural Ethiopia showing a CCT increases enrollment and reduces child marriage. The largest effects are observed for youth offered the transfer a year prior to their (potential) matriculation; in this cohort, there is also a significant in-crease in the probability students pass the primary school leaving exam. By contrast, reduced treatment effects are observed for prior dropouts, and a generalized random forest analysis suggests this primarily reflects different observable characteristics (lower academic performance) among this sub-sample.

Soil tests, vouchers, and the limits of site-specific fertilizer recommendations: Experimental evidence from Malawi

Fertilizer subsidy programmes dominate agricultural spending in several African countries. Rising and volatile fertilizer prices have renewed concerns about the efficiency of such spending, prompting initiatives to tailor fertilizer recommendations to local soil conditions. We test this premise in Malawi, where the national subsidy programme distributes a standard package of urea and NPK fertilizer. In a cluster-randomized trial involving more than 2,000 households across 113 villages, we assign farmers to (i) a plot-level soil-test recommendation, (ii) the same recommendation combined with a voucher of subsidy-equivalent value, or (iii) a control group. The recommendation alone has no effect on fertilizer use, input choice, or maize yields. When paired with a voucher, fertilizer use and maize yields increase substantially, with yields rising by roughly one-third; at the maize prices prevailing in our study area, however, the value of this additional production falls short of the face value of the voucher, let alone the value of the voucher plus the cost of individualized soil test. For farmers themselves the package is nonetheless profitable, since the voucher largely displaces fertilizer they would have bought anyway and so lowers their own input spending, and because many households are net maize buyers, valuing the additional output at retail rather than farmgate prices narrows the shortfall. The yield gains do not reflect adoption of site-specific prescriptions: voucher recipients predominantly purchase urea and NPK in proportions closely matching the standard subsidy bundle, regardless of what their soil test recommends, and compliance with recommended alternatives such as potassium, lime, or calcium ammonium nitrate is negligible. Because the observed gains come almost entirely from nitrogen intensification while phosphorus, potassium, and lime gaps remain uncorrected, the measured yield response is a lower bound on what full-compliance fertilization could deliver. Relaxing financial constraints thus increases input use and productivity, but information alone does not redirect behaviour toward precision fertilization. Effective subsidy reform will require addressing broader supply- and demand-side constraints, including input availability, farmer familiarity with recommended products, and the practical implementation of site-specific recommendations, not only improving agronomic information.

When quality (doesn’t) pay: Evidence from two experiments in Uganda

Quality in agri-food supply chains is often unobservable at first sale and early aggregation limits traceability, weakening incentives for quality provision. We study whether making milk quality visible and traceable creates a market for quality in Uganda’s dairy sector. Increasing observability reduces adulteration and improves quality, but no premium emerges. In a follow-up experiment, we introduce trader quality premiums. This increases quality when binding, yet informed intermediaries capture the gains and farm-gate prices do not rise. Observability is necessary but insufficient: without downstream demand for quality and pass-through by intermediaries, incentives for quality upgrading remain weak.

Targeting of beneficiaries in chemical fertilizer subsidy programs: State of knowledge and evidence gaps

Low- and middle-income countries are under increasing fiscal pressure to rationalize spending on fertilizer subsidy programs. Policy reforms shifting expenditure away from subsidies can have beneficial impacts given the well-documented distortionary market effects and negative environmental externalities of fertilizer subsidies. However, such reforms also result in losses and often lower fertilizer use for current beneficiaries. Understanding who is impacted by reform thus requires an assessment of who is currently benefiting, yet there is little systematic work understanding who these programs currently benefit both on paper and in practice. In this paper, we identify low- and middle- income countries with active fertilizer subsidy programs, and characterize the targeting regime of each program based on both explicit and implicit criteria determining eligibility. Then in a selection of case studies, we explore which individuals are receiving subsidy benefits in practice. We find that while many fertilizer subsidy programs are designed as universal, in many countries there are implicit targeting criteria embedded in the way subsidy programs are implemented and/or informal targeting induced by supply shortfalls. Further, we find evidence that regardless of targeting regime, the targeting of subsidy programs is generally pro-poor, driven by the fact that the poor are often concentrated in the agricultural sector.

Current Agro-Based Transformation and Its Future in East and Southern Africa

Financial inclusion for youth in agrifood systems: Gendered barriers and solutions in northern Nigeria

Nigeria is home to one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing youth populations aged 15–35, yet financial exclusion continues to sideline young people, particularly young women, from fully participating in agrifood systems. When women control financial resources, they generate multiplier effects across the food system.

In northern Nigeria, where more than half the population remains unbanked, the stakes are especially high. This research note draws on evidence from two complementary IFPRI studies to examine the financial inclusion experiences of young women and young men in northern Nigeria and identify practical, gender-sensitive solutions.

AICCRA institutionalizes training on gender-responsive cost-benefit analysis of climate information services within two Africa-wide capacity development institutions

Between 2021 and 2025, Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) developed and piloted a gender-responsive cost–benefit analysis (CBA) methodology for Climate Information Services (CIS) in Africa. Through methodological research, a toolkit, and stakeholder consultations, the approach was tested in Kenya and subsequently integrated into selected training programs at the Institute for Meteorological Training and Research (IMTR). Course materials were also made available through the Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture (RUFORUM) Regional e-Learning Platform, providing access for use in academic and professional training contexts.

Cost–benefit analysis of WFP’s integrated resilience programme in Chad (2018–2023)

1. Integrated resilience programming (IRP) works. The IRP significantly improved household food security, with participating households recording an average 6.6 point increase in Food Consumption Scores (FCS) and reduced reliance on negative coping strategies, and increased resilience capacities, compared with nonparticipants, underscoring the value of multisectoral, layered interventions.

2. High economic returns are achievable in fragile contexts. Overall, the IRP delivered a benefitcost ratio (BCR) of 3.98, meaning every US$1 invested generated nearly US$4 in measurable benefits.

3. Nutrition interventions (treatment of acute malnutrition and blanket supplementary feeding) yield the strongest returns. Treatment of acute malnutrition and preventive nutrition support for women and children produced BCRs ranging from 6:1 to 9:1, validating global evidence on the cost-effectiveness of nutrition investments.

4. Knowledge-based and community-led interventions are transformative. Training and sensitization activities achieved the highest BCR (20:1) for resilience outcomes, highlighting the long-term payoffs of behavior change, empowerment, and knowledge transfer activities.

5. Cereal banks, particularly when combined with Food Assistance for Assets (FFA) through cash transfers, contributed to improved food security and resilience outcomes. The Cereal Bank + FFA Cash Transfers combination achieved balanced gains across key indicators (FCS +9.2, rCSI –3.4, RCS +10.4), highlighting its role in stabilizing seasonal food availability and access. However, despite these outcome improvements, the cost-effectiveness was modest, with BCRs ranging from 0.4 to 0.6—suggesting that while the intervention supports resilience, its financial return per dollar invested may be limited under current implementation models.

6. Bundled interventions outperform stand-alone ones. Layered approaches—particularly FFA Cash Transfers combined with School Feeding—produced the largest FCS gains (+5.7 points; BCR = 2.85), reinforcing WFP’s integrated “three-pronged approach” to resilience-building.

7. Short-term transfers remain essential but less cost-efficient. Lean season food and cash distributions provided vital relief but yielded lower long-term returns (BCR < 1), emphasizing the need to balance immediate humanitarian needs with investments in sustainability. 8. Strategic scaling of high-return interventions is crucial. Scaling nutrition, training, and cereal bank programs, while optimizing the design and sequencing of combined packages, could maximize impact per dollar spent and strengthen resilience dividends. 9. Resilience is a smart investment. The findings demonstrate that resilience programming is not only a humanitarian necessity but also a financially sound strategy—reducing long-term aid dependency, improving livelihoods, and fostering local self-reliance across fragile environments in Chad. 10. Short-term coping behavior responds more slowly than food security and resilience capacity outcomes, highlighting the need for sustained and sequenced support. While IRP interventions generated significant improvements in food consumption and resilience capacity, reductions in severe coping strategies were not observed in the short term. This underscores that behavioral change lags behind stabilization and capacity-building gains, and that resilience impacts should be assessed over longer horizons rather than through immediate reductions in negative coping alone.

Changing rural labor markets and welfare in Malawi

Cash transfers relax climate-induced mobility constraints in Kenya

The use of migration as an adaptation strategy is now recognized by scholars and policymakers as a key response to climate change. Cash transfer programs, now being implemented worldwide, also have the potential to facilitate adaptation and promote resilience in low- and middle-income countries. We investigate the extent to which a cash transfer program in Kenya promoted the mobility of household members due to climate shocks, leveraging exogenous variation in local deviations from the historical climate and the administration of the program through a randomized controlled trial. Our findings indicate that beneficiary households were less likely to reduce migration amid cold spells, likely via shifts in education-related migration. We also find that heat spells ubiquitously encourage new members to join the household, while cold spells have the opposite effect, and that cash transfers do not appear to alter these relationships. Together the results suggest that cold spells can trap migrants in temperate, low-resource settings and that cash transfers can partially alleviate these constraints. Modeling migration and complementary strategies in the presence of climate tipping points will become necessary to predict when more permanent migration will be triggered and modifying social assistance will become necessary.

Youth in relation to agroecology: practices, promises, and perceptions in five countries

In the context of rising youth populations in many low- and middle-income countries, coupled with high youth unemployment and aging farmer populations, this paper asks in what ways agroecology, as a sustainable alternative to the conventional agricultural practices and paradigm, attracts youth to farming and rural-based livelihoods. We draw on empirical data from semi-structured interviews and photovoice conducted with young women and men in five countries: Kenya, India, Peru, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe. In our discussion, we highlight which dimensions and aspects of agroecology resonate with youth and why.

Uncovering bottlenecks and innovative solutions for scaling small-scale irrigation through a system approach and design thinking: Evidence from Nigeria

CONTEXT
Small-scale irrigation (SSI) is central to food system transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa, yet its scaling remains low in Nigeria despite the apparent demand and policy narratives.

OBJECTIVE
Examine intermediary ‘missing middle’ barriers to SSI scaling and co-create solutions for socially inclusive, environmentally sustainable, and institutionally coherent scaling of SSI.

METHODS
We integrated Agricultural Innovation Systems (AIS) theory with a Human-Centered Design (HCD) approach to examine SSI diffusion in a Responsible Scaling lens. For qualitative study, a series of HCD workshops were conducted in three geographies (Kano, Oyo, and FCT) with a total of 85 stakeholders drawn from government institutions, financial organizations, and private irrigation technology suppliers. To complement qualitative insights, we analyzed the 2023 National Agricultural Sample Survey microdata to generate a national snapshot of irrigation prevalence, methods, and water sources. This is a nationally representative data from sample of 152,485 households and over 76 million agricultural plots included in the Nigeria National Agricultural Sample Survey (NASS) 2022/2023.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
The study demonstrates that Nigeria’s SSI bottlenecks stem not simply from farmer reluctance or technological ignorance but primarily from systemic intermediation failures across policy coordination, finance, and market supply chains—producing a “missing-middle” ecosystem. These failures include fragmented government mandates, high lender risk perceptions, weak supplier networks, gendered exclusion, and pervasive information gaps. Applying responsible scaling (RS) we show how scaling of SSI is being hindered by institutional fragmentation, liquidity constraints, gender exclusion, and data/information deficiency.

SIGNIFICANCE
The study presents co-created innovation pathways, including a national SSI coordination platform, blended-finance mechanisms, supplier hub models, and gender-responsive financing, mapped to AIS functions to guide responsible, inclusive, and climate-resilient scaling. The integrated AIS–HCD–RS approach advances system learning and participatory co-design and offers a practical methodology for responsible scaling of agricultural innovation.

Food supply implications of healthy diet consumption in Senegal by 2050

Targeting social assistance in fragile settings: An experiment in community-based targeting

Political economy of planting for food and jobs input subsidy policy process in Ghana: An application of the Kaleidoscope Model

The Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) input subsidy policy was Ghana’s flagship agricultural programme from 2017 to 2025, designed to increase agricultural productivity, enhance food security, create jobs, and improve rural livelihoods through targeted support to smallholder farmers. Despite its prominence, there has been little systematic analysis of the political economy of the policy process that shaped it. This study applies the Kaleidoscope Model of Policy Change (KM), a framework developed for analysing development policy processes, to examine how the PFJ input subsidy policy was placed on the agenda, designed, adopted, and implemented. A qualitative research design was employed, involving 50 key informant interviews with policymakers, programme implementers, farmer-based organisations, and development partners, alongside two focus group discussions with farmers. Data were coded and analysed thematically using the KM framework to identify drivers, enablers, and constraints across the different stages of the policy process. The findings indicate that focusing events and policy coalitions were crucial in placing PFJ on the agenda. Policy design was influenced by the urgency of addressing declining productivity, ideological factors, and cost–benefit assessments. Adoption was shaped by the authority of advocates, the limited resistance of veto players, and favourable political timing, reflecting the perception that presidential initiatives often become policy priorities. Implementation, although constrained by budget shortfalls and logistical challenges, benefited from institutional capacity, budgetary allocations, and sustained advocacy. Overall, PFJ reached its target number of beneficiaries, raised productivity, enhanced food security, created jobs, and reduced dependence on food imports, despite only 69% of planned resources being released. However, limited tailored support for youth and women remains a key gap. The study demonstrates the value of political economy analysis for agricultural policy and recommends structured engagement with the private sector in subsidized input delivery from agenda setting through to implementation.

The impact of a continuum of care intervention from prevention to treatment on child wasting compared to usual community group activities: A cluster randomized controlled trial in Mali

Background
Child wasting is associated with a high mortality risk and remains a persistent public health challenge.

Objective
This study aimed to evaluate the impact of an intervention strengthening the continuum of care of child wasting from prevention, screening, and referral to treatment in Mali.

Methods
A two-arm cluster-randomized controlled trial was conducted using two study designs to evaluate impact and pathways: i) a longitudinal study of children enrolled at 6 months (n=2,324) with monthly follow-up for 3–6 months to assess wasting prevalence (primary outcome); ii) a longitudinal study of all children 6–23 months admitted to outpatient therapeutic programs (OTP; n=7,104) assessing recovery and adherence. Additional OTP coverage surveys were conducted at the end of the study. In both study arms, nutrition activity support groups (NASG) screened children for wasting and provided caregiver behavior change communication (BCC). The intervention arm additionally received small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS), child-centered BCC, family-led screening, and follow-up on referred wasting cases to support OTP admission and adherence.

Results
The intervention did not impact wasting prevalence but reduced the incidence of wasting (relative risk (RR): 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.64, 0.99) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) (RR: 0.71, 95%CI: 0.57, 0.89). The intervention significantly increased wasting screening coverage by 37 pp (95%CI: 31, 44) and SAM treatment coverage by 15 pp (95%CI: 0.35, 30). No impacts of the intervention on OTP recovery or adherence were found. NASGs often replaced the monthly home visits with community gatherings to deliver the intervention. NASGs also often distributed SQ-LNS to children they identified with wasting instead of referring them to the OTP.

Conclusions
Strengthening the continuum of care of wasting through community groups reduced the incidence of wasting and SAM and improved screening coverage, which translated into a modest gain in SAM treatment coverage.

Adding small quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements to an enhanced homestead food production program improves child hemoglobin, iron and vitamin A status in rural Burkina Faso: A cluster randomized controlled trial

Background
Enhanced homestead food production programs (EHFP) including nutrition behavior change communication and women’s empowerment activities have limited impacts on child nutrition. This may be due to short program duration or the absence of interventions to improve water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) and access to nutritious foods.

Objective
We assessed impacts on child anemia, micronutrient status and anthropometry of prior village exposure to an EHFP, and of adding WASH alone or WASH with daily small quantity-lipid based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS).

Design
This 2y longitudinal cluster-randomized controlled trial (2014-2016) included 60 villages in Burkina Faso randomized to four groups (15 per group): (1) EHFP-2014, (2) EHFP-2014+WASH, (3) EHFP-2010+WASH, and (4) EHFP-2010+WASH+SQ-LNS. Groups 3 and 4 had previously received EHFP (2010-2012). We assessed impacts on child anemia and micronutrient status (n=1,704; 3-12.9 mo at baseline) and anthropometry (n=2,308; 0-12.9 mo at baseline) using difference-in-difference (DID) specifications. We controlled for covariates, adjusted for clustering, and assessed interactive effects by child age at baseline. The trial was registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02236468).

Results
We found no impact of prior exposure to EHFP (groups 2 vs 3) on the outcomes examined. Adding WASH (groups 1 vs 2) reduced anemia (hemoglobin (Hb)<11 g/dL) (DID=9.43 pp, p<0.01) and led to a decline in weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) (DID -0.11±0.04, p=0.01). Adding SQ-LNS (groups 3 vs 4) increased Hb (DID=0.26±0.13 g/dL, p<0.05), plasma ferritin (DID=7.61±2.69 μg/L, p<0.01), and retinol binding protein (DID=0.07±0.02 umol/L, p<0.01) concentrations. Effects were larger in children <6 mo at baseline, where providing SQ-LNS (>6 mo) positively impacted Hb, plasma ferritin, height-for-age Z-score, WAZ, and underweight.

Conclusions
Using EHFP to deliver WASH and SQ-LNS reduced child anemia and improved micronutrient status. Anthropometric improvements were found in children who joined the program before 6 mo of age and were exposed for the whole complementary feeding period.

Role of credit access, improved varieties, and gender dynamics in commercialization of cassava seeds in Nigeria

Cassava seed entrepreneurship is critical for strengthening seed systems and advancing agricultural transformation in Nigeria. This study examines the determinants of smallholder participation in cassava seed entrepreneurship and simulates the effects of targeted policy interventions using survey data from 993 cassava farmers in Benue State. The analysis applies a binary logit framework with counterfactual scenario simulations and production-regime, specific estimations to account for heterogeneity between low- and high-productivity environments, alongside additional robustness checks. The results show that access to credit (dy/dx = 13.2%, p <0.01), adoption of improved cassava varieties (dy/dx = 14.3%, p < 0.01), use of an area-calculation mobile application (dy/dx = 7.1%, p < 0.05), and access to extension services (dy/dx = 5.2%, p < 0.05) significantly increase the likelihood of participation in cassava seed entrepreneurship. Gender-disaggregated analysis indicates that male farmers have a modest but meaningful advantage (β = 0.92, dy/dx = 5.8%), reflecting differential access to productive resources and institutional support. The production-regime analysis reveals important structural differences in participation drivers. In low-productivity environments, participation is primarily constrained by financial capital, with credit access emerging as the dominant determinant. In contrast, in high-productivity environments, participation is more strongly influenced by technological complementarities, particularly adoption of improved varieties, digital decision-support tools, and extension services that enhance productivity and market coordination. These findings highlight that entrepreneurial engagement is context-dependent rather than uniform across farming systems. Policy simulations further indicate that the joint provision of credit and improved varieties could increase participation probabilities by 36.1 percentage points for men, 32.0 percentage points for youth (≤35 years), and 25.8 percentage points for women, demonstrating substantial untapped entrepreneurial potential among women and youth if structural barriers are relaxed. As part of the robustness analysis, conflict exposure, used as a proxy for local political instability, shows a positive and statistically significant association with participation, suggesting that farmers in conflict-affected environments may adopt cassava seed entrepreneurship as a resilience or income-diversification strategy. Consistency across alternative specifications confirms that institutional access, technological adoption, and productive capacity remain more decisive for participation than most demographic characteristics. Overall, the study underscores the need for gender and youth-responsive policies that integrate financial inclusion, technological support, institutional strengthening, context-sensitive interventions as well as attention to productivity regimes and local security conditions, to promote inclusive and resilient cassava seed systems in Nigeria.

C’est la vie! Mixed impacts of an edutainment television series in West Africa

Edutainment is a promising tool for changing behavior at scale, yet little is known about how to maximize impacts. We undertake an experimental evaluation of a popular West African television series, C’est la vie!, delivered through film clubs targeted at adolescent girls and young women in rural Senegal. We examine impacts on violence against women and girls and sexual and reproductive health. Results show C’est la vie! improved knowledge on both domains three months after film clubs ended, as well as violence-related attitudes nine months later, however, had no impact on behaviors. We investigate design components intended to strengthen impacts, generally finding no additional impacts from post-screening discussions, engaging men, and podcasts. Our findings suggest that edutainment is an engaging way to reach viewers on sensitive themes, however more evidence is needed on how to effectively deliver edutainment content for sustained behavior change at scale.

Cost and affordability of recommended diets in Rwanda using [near] real-time market data

Countries are increasingly benchmarking food assistance and labour laws on the cost of nationally recommended diets. Benchmarking is made against national annual estimates, which fail to account for sub-national and intra-annual variation in cost, blunting the impact of policies. Using monthly market price data collected by the Government of Rwanda (April 2019-March 2024), we estimate the cost of the country’s proposed food-based dietary guidelines, using a standardised diet costing methodology. We found rural areas experienced greater inflation in diet cost over the study period than urban areas (41% vs 28%), yet the recommended diet was 12.7% higher in urban locations. Diet costs were approximately 6% lower in districts with international border crossings to Tanzania, but 7% more in those with borders with the Democratic Republic of Congo. Fruits and vegetables (110% and 71%) and starchy staples (86% and 83%) contributed most to cost increases in rural and urban locations respectively. Seasonal diet cost fluctuations were also evident with a seasonal amplitude of 5.6% and 6.9% in rural and urban locations, synchronised to Rwanda’s agricultural calendar. 70% of employed Rwandans would find the recommended diet unaffordable, if spending 52% of wages on food. Diet costs varied 4.2-fold across all districts throughout the study period, meaning that uniform national policies to address costs and affordability would be systematically inadequate in high-cost settings and wasteful in low-cost ones. That such spatial–temporal variation exists in a small, relatively market integrated country like Rwanda suggests variation would be at least equally consequential in other low and lower-middle-income countries. High-frequency and sub-national monitoring of prices, diet costs, and affordability provides essential intelligence for policymakers to enable spatially and seasonally targeted interventions, improving both the adequacy and efficiency of food policy.

Digital literacy training to promote diffusion of digital agricultural tools to smallholder farmers: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Egypt

Despite growing enthusiasm about the potential of digital innovations to transform agrifood systems, adoption among smallholder farmers in Africa remains low and heterogeneous. While the proliferation of digital tools targeting smallholder farmers is encouraging, the vast majority remain at pilot stages, facing barriers such as limited awareness among farmer, digital illiteracy, usability challenges, and low trust among farmers. This paper evaluates alternative digital literacy interventions designed to address these demand-side barriers and enhance smallholder farmers’ knowledge, utilization, trust, and uptake of two Egyptian mobile apps offering marketing, advisory, and input delivery services. Following a Training of Trainers (TOT) model, we designed and implemented a randomized controlled trial to test three variants of digital literacy training: standard classroom-based digital literacy training (T1), digital training complemented (preceded) by a video-based play (T2), digital training complemented (preceded) by a live community play (T3), and a control group (C). We find that the different variants of digital training led to statistically significant increases in uptake and utilization of digital tools. Specifically, the standard digital training alone increased uptake by 20 percentage points and utilization by 18 percentage points. The interventions also improved farmers’ trust in digital tools by 8–13 percentage points. Surprisingly, for some outcomes, the digital literacy training alone outperformed the combined approaches that incorporated edutainment nudges. We explore possible explanations, including group size effects and social influence dynamics during the plays. We also document heterogeneity in the impact of these interventions across farmers’ gender and age. Our findings offer insights into designing cost-effective, scalable interventions that build digital capabilities and trust among smallholder farmers, while cautioning against assuming edutainment always strengthens adoption outcomes.

Assessing the development impacts of bio-innovations: The case of genetically modified maize and cassava in Tanzania

Leveraging salt fortification platforms to address multiple-micronutrient deficiencies in Africa: A policy opportunity

IFPRI: Africa strategy: Partnering for evidence-based transformation

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s Africa Strategy focuses on achieving impact through partnerships, research and evidence-building, capacity development, and innovative communication and knowledge sharing in support of Africa’s agenda for agrifood systems transformation. Building on decades of high-impact engagement at continental, regional, national, and subnational levels, IFPRI aims to sharpen and intensify its work in a rapidly transforming Africa. Through deepened partnerships with African institutions, IFPRI plans to help generate high-quality evidence to drive impact across Africa’s fast-changing agrifood systems and economies to support sustainable, inclusive economic growth and open new opportunities for a better future.

SAA’s Extension Model: Scaling Sustainable Farming in Nigeria

In Nigeria, scaling agricultural innovations faces a major enabling environment challenge. This includes weak national extension systems, low extension officer-to-farmer ratio (1:1,800–1:3,000) and ineffective input-output market linkages, limiting technology adoption, and value addition for smallholders. The Sasakawa Africa Association (SAA) addressed this through its Value-Chain Based Extension (VCBE) Models, including Commodity Association Trader-Trainers and post-harvest centers, fostering public-private partnerships to build capacity, improve group dynamics, and create aggregation hubs. This innovative extension model has mobilized agricultural produce valued at approximately USD 3.9 million and delivered significant impact for smallholder farmers. The approach has doubled maize yields—from traditional levels of 2,438 kg/ha to 4,823 kg/ha—while enhancing incomes for more than 455,200 farmers. These outcomes are strengthening both food security and economic resilience across participating communities.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: April 2026

Varietal adoption, turnover, and concentration for major crops in Ethiopia: Evidence from household surveys and field sample genotyping

Although continuous genetic improvement of crops cultivated by smallholder farmers is a well-known route to increasing agricultural productivity, our understanding of varietal adoption, turnover, and concentration in farmers’ fields is limited. Often, the greatest challenge to our understanding lies in the measurement approach (farmer self-reports versus DNA fingerprinting), as well as in the analysis and interpretation of the available data. To address this issue, we explore variety-level data on four main crops (wheat, maize, teff, and common bean) in Ethiopia. We estimate the area-weighted average varietal age (AWAVA) of each crop using data from a nationally representative sample survey of farm households and a unique genotyping dataset based on seed samples collected from the fields of sampled farm households. We also calculate indices to explore the concentration of varieties in farmers’ fields, which serves to substantiate the varietal age analysis. Overall, results show considerable variation in average varietal age across crops, ranging from 12.5 years for wheat to 28.2 years for common bean. Analysis of area shares of individual varieties for each crop indicates that slower varietal turnover (i.e., higher varietal age) is driven by the continued dominance of older varieties, despite the presence of newer varieties in the market. Slow varietal turnover in the presence of new varieties suggests the need for greater investment in the systems and markets through which seed is distributed to farmers. This includes stronger coordination of research and extension activities, improvement of variety-specific popularization and marketing efforts, and continued experimentation in seed sector development in Ethiopia.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, April 2026

Average retail prices of maize declined by most measures, with lowest prices registered in the Southern Region.

Driven by increased domestic supply of newly harvested maize and cheap imports, maize retailed mostly below the government-mandated minimum farmgate price.

Farming in crisis: Livelihood challenges and resilience in conflict-affected Sudan: Insights from the Sudan 2024 Smallholder Farmers Survey

Sudan’s agricultural sector in 2026 is facing unprecedented challenges due to the ongoing conflict, economic instability, and climate-related shocks. These overlapping crises have severely disrupted farming activities, market systems, and rural livelihoods across the country. The situation is particularly critical for smallholder farmers, who form the backbone of Sudan’s food production and rural economy.

This report assesses the state of agriculture in conflict-affected Sudan, with a focus on input use, crop production, market access, and farming household-level challenges. It draws data from the Sudan 2024 Smallholder Farmers Survey, conducted across 13 of Sudan’s 18 states. The survey covered both the 2023/24 winter cropping season and preparations for the 2024 summer season.

The findings reveal that Sudan’s agriculture sector has been severely disrupted by the ongoing conflict. Migration and displacement due to the conflict are reshaping the structure of farming households, while asset losses, reduced cultivated land, and declining livestock holdings undermine their resilience. Household incomes have contracted sharply. Engagement in agricultural activities has dropped, while reliance of farming households on non-agricultural businesses, casual labor, and humanitarian assistance has increased. Food insecurity has reached alarming levels—fewer than one in four households are food secure, while over half are severely food insecure. Food-insecure households are most prevalent in conflict-affected states, such as South Kordofan, North Kordofan, and Blue Nile.

However, improvements were seen in access to input and output markets and the adoption of agricultural inputs in the 2023/24 winter season compared to the 2023 summer season. Farmers reported better availability of improved seed and fertilizer and more reliable input markets and crop-selling channels. However, these gains are overshadowed by growing uncertainty—a large portion of farmers indicated that they did not plan to cultivate crops during the 2024 summer season. Farmer’s access to finance and external assistance remained highly constrained. Farming households that used credit primarily relied on informal credit sources. More than three-quarters reported receiving no external assistance in 2024. Where support is available, its distribution remains uneven, with conflict-affected areas facing severe delivery challenges.

Farmers report widespread exposure to both idiosyncratic and covariate shocks such as illness, flooding, theft, and violence—all of which compound their vulnerability. The coping strategies they use include selling household goods, reducing agricultural investment, or liquidating assets. Such choices provide short-term relief but jeopardize their long-term recovery. Perceptions of insecurity remain widespread, particularly in states experiencing active conflict.

Overall, the findings paint a picture of a farming sector under extreme strain in Sudan. Without urgent, state-specific, and conflict-sensitive interventions, rural livelihoods will continue to deteriorate, further threatening national food security. The report concludes with recommendations to strengthen humanitarian support, revitalize agricultural input and finance systems, protect the assets of farming households, restore markets, and invest in building the resilience of farming households to both conflict and climate risks. Tailored interventions are needed to address state-level disparities, including food and security support in the Kordofan region, water and health services in Red Sea and Kassala states, and agricultural inputs in Aj Jazirah and River Nile. Long-term strategies must also invest in climate-smart agriculture, strengthen social protection systems, and ensure conflict-sensitive approaches that protect farmers and rebuild trust in rural communities.

The rise of ganyu in Malawi

A quiet but important transformation is taking place in Malawi’s rural labor markets. Increasingly, rural Malawians are working fewer hours on their own farms and spending more time in ganyu – an informal labor arrangement based on day- or piece‑work, typically requiring very low levels of skill and offering low and uncertain pay. While ganyu has long existed in Malawi, its scale and role in rural livelihoods have changed markedly. It is no longer merely a short‑term coping strategy but has become a central source of employment for a growing share of the rural population.

This shift is especially pronounced among men, young people, and individuals with little land and limited formal education. At the same time, those who rely more heavily on ganyu are finding it increasingly difficult to secure adequate and stable access to food. The rapid expansion of ganyu has important implications for the kind of policies that will advance inclusive development in Malawi.

C’est la Vie! How a popular West African edutainment series changed minds, but not behaviours

A West African TV series in Senegal led to short- and medium-term gains in knowledge and attitudes around violence against women and sexual and reproductive health, though impacts on behaviours were limited, and a podcast version extending content during COVID-19 was ineffective.

The impact of a nutrition-sensitive graduation model on child nutrition: Experimental evidence from Ethiopia

This brief reports on a three-arm cluster randomized controlled trial of 3,015 households evaluating the effectiveness of SPIR II, a nutrition-sensitive graduation model implemented in Ethiopia. The full treatment package—combining nutrition-focused behavior change communication (BCC), village economics and savings associations, monthly maternal cash transfers of US$20, and a one-time livelihood grant of US$300—generates large, sustained improvements in child diet quality, household consumption, livestock holdings, and formal savings. A substantial reduction in childhood stunting (7 percentage points) is observed in the same sub-arm; BCC alone improves caregiver nutrition knowledge but does not lead to improved child feeding or growth. The benefit-cost ratio is nearly two, suggesting the program more than pays for itself.

Gender, youth, and growth: Unpacking the productivity–transformation nexus in Rwanda

The relationship between labor productivity and economic transformation, and their combined impact on labor market dynamics, remains insufficiently understood and highly country specific. This study applies an economywide analytical framework, using Rwanda as a case study, to examine how youth and women’s productivity influence economic growth and structural transformation, and how this transformation process, in turn, affects these groups.

The results indicate that labor productivity gains—whether economywide or concentrated among youth—shift growth toward the industrial and service sectors, while growth in the agricultural sector is minimal. Increases in productivity of women’ labor generate more balanced growth across sectors and substantially enhance women’s industrial participation. Productivity gains of youth labor induce stronger structural shifts, as young workers move from agriculture to expanding industrial and service sectors, though this transition partially displaces adult workers.

In general, labor income in these simulations rises broadly in line with GDP, with youth and women benefiting most under targeted scenarios. Sector-specific growth strategies yield distinct distributional effects, however: industry-led growth benefits women and adults, while service-led growth favors the versatile youth. Overall, productivity-driven structural transformation in Rwanda fosters welfare gains, although potential trade-offs between inclusiveness across gender and age groups and aggregate economic performance warrant further investigation. In conclusion, policy design in Rwanda should ensure that gains in aggregate economic growth are balanced with inclusive outcomes for women, youth, and adults.

Optimizing school meals in Ghana: Integrating new food and nutrient standards with aspects of affordability, cultural acceptability and environmental sustainability

Objectives:
To optimize school food baskets in Ghana to meet newly proposed food and nutrition targets while considering cultural acceptability and cost.

Design:
Modeling study. Data on existing school meal menus was collected from various regions to provide baseline inputs. Linear programming (LP) was used to model school meal baskets that satisfied minimum nutrient and food targets for school meals while meeting cost and acceptability constraints. Five LP models were tested, each varying in budget constraints and acceptability/food-based parameters.

Results:
Baseline school food baskets were significantly deficient in energy, protein, iron, zinc, vitamin A, folate, vitamin B12 and vitamin C compared to food and nutrient standards for school meals in Ghana. Optimization resulted in school food baskets that met cost, nutrient and food-based/acceptability targets but with substantial deviations from baseline. Achieving nutritional adequacy within cost limits increased reliance on animal-source foods and led to higher environmental impacts, indicating trade-offs between nutrition, affordability, and environmental sustainability.

Conclusion:
The study underscores LP’s potential for enhancing school meals in Ghana but highlights the need for increased financial investment for reaching dietary goals. Addressing local realities and cultural preferences is essential for implementing effective, sustainable school meal strategies and improving child health.

Women’s Empowerment Metric for National Statistical Systems (WEMNS): Development and psychometric assessment of a face-to-face survey module

Data to monitor progress towards gender-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) remain limited. A comprehensive, concise set of metrics is needed for routine national data collection to monitor progress toward these goals. Our team developed and tested the Women’s Empowerment Metric for National Statistical Systems (WEMNS) survey module for use by national statistical offices and survey organizations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to measure women’s and men’s empowerment. This paper summarizes the process of developing the WEMNS module and presents detailed results of a psychometric assessment of face-to-face surveys in Bangladesh, Malawi, and Nepal. Exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) in the pooled sample confirmed that most of the 13 item sets had adequately identified factor structures aligned with specific empowerment constructs and gender-related SDGs. In multi-group CFA assessing measurement equivalence of item sets across gender and countries, configural invariance was observed for 9 of 13 item sets across genders and across country settings. At least partial scalar invariance was observed for one item set across genders and no item sets across country settings. Spearman pairwise correlations among WEMNS factor scores derived from final CFA models showed weak associations, suggesting item sets were weakly related and distinct. Overall, Spearman pairwise correlations of 13 WEMNS-derived factor scores with external measures for basic needs, resources, agency, and subjective well-being were weak, but five moderately high correlations were conceptually aligned. In sum, the WEMNS measures require refinement and further psychometric assessment to confirm their use to make valid comparisons of empowerment across country settings and gender.

The future in mind: Aspirations and long-term outcomes in rural Ethiopia

Evaluating large-scale government investments in fertilizer adoption: The Ethiopian experience

We evaluate the impact of a large Government of Ethiopia intervention to raise fertilizer supply by establishing five fertilizer blending facilities supplying fertilizers tailored to local soil nutrient profiles. We rely on the phased geographic rollout of blending facility establishment to identify the causal effect on fertilizer use, application rates, crop yields, gross crop revenue, and household consumption. Combining effects of multiple treatment periods, each estimated using a doubly robust difference-in-difference model, we find that the blending facilities increased the probability that farmers adopt the new blended fertilizers by 22 percentage points and increased application rates by 17 kg/ha (baseline adoption was zero). The facilities mostly induced farmers who previously used DAP to switch to NPS, and we find large decreases in DAP adoption (by 22 percentage points, 47% of the control group base mean) and application rates (16 kg/ha, 52% of the control group base mean) yet no impact on overall fertilizer adoption or application rates. Though the new blended fertilizers were expected to perform better, there is no evidence they improved crop yields, crop gross revenue, or household consumption. The effect of the intervention was more pronounced (with larger increases in NPS use and larger decreases in DAP use) for farms located near demonstration plots, which the Government used to train farmers about the agronomic response to the new fertilizers. We confirm results using three large-scale longitudinal datasets and show that they are robust to choices of specification, treatment definition, and inference assumptions.

JEL classification: O12, O13, Q16, Q18

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: March 2026

Cereals and Flour
Lentils, Rice, and Pigeon Peas
Vegetables
Meat and Animal Products
Oilseeds, Cooking Oil, Sugar, and Fava Beans
Seeds
Fertilizers
Diesel and Petrol
Exchange Rates
Labor wages
Market Actors’ Perceptions

Under the weight of provision: Gendered mental load among smallholder farmers in Kenya

Invisible mental strain affects women and men, especially in rural areas. The effects of this strain can influence collective and economic decisions, impacting resilience in low-resource agricultural communities. Using qualitative data collected from focus group discussions with smallholder farmers in Western Kenya, we explored gendered strains of women and men, their social and psychological consequences, and the gender empathy gap. We conducted focus group discussions with 56 farmers and found that expectations of the roles of women and men in the household were clear. The “invisible burden” was present in the pressure to be hardworking and to provide financial means for the family as a man; and to care for the family and farm as a woman. The strain led to stress, worry, and deterioration of mental health, contributing to despondency, isolation, household conflict, and even mental breakdowns. Household members coped with the psychological strain in different ways. Men tended to use avoidance mechanisms, isolate themselves, or turn to alcohol consumption. Women mentioned talking to others about the strain. Both women and men also reached out to other people, took some kind of action, made plans or relied on their faith in God. Both women and men showed empathy toward one another; that is, they recognized the strain and the effects on their spouse. However, women appeared to show more empathy than men. Thus, the breadwinner strain borne by men and the family load borne by women was an important factor in rural areas, affecting household relations and decisions, which can ultimately affect household resilience. Given the negative social and psychological consequences of this invisible burden, mental health literacy trainings, gender transformative approaches, community dialogues, and gender-responsive extension services can be employed to help households to better cope with strain.

Evaluation of solar-powered cold storage and evaporative cooling system as off-grid methods for postharvest vegetable storage: Evidence from a laboratory Experiment in Nigeria

This study examined the postharvest storage potentials of a solar-powered cool storage and an off-grid, metal-in-wall evaporative coolant. Temperature drop and relative humidity (RH) increase were used to analyze the performance of cooling systems. Tomato (United Trading Company (UTC) variety), orange (Dan Benue variety) and carrot (Orange Chantenay) were obtained from the international fruits market in Dutse, Jigawa State, Nigeria. The items were sorted and stored in three different storage conditions: room temperature (RT), solar-powered cold storage, and metal-in-wall evaporative cooling systems. Mass loss, color, hardness, total soluble solids and titratable acids, carotenoids, vitamin C, and rate of nutrient degradation were among the quality indicators tested. The study shows that the solar-powered cold storage outperformed all other storage methods across the evaluated parameters; it preserved fruit firmness, significantly reduced the rate of color change, and minimized mass and nutrient losses, outperforming the metal-in-wall evaporative cooling system. For instance, tomato mass losses observed in 24 days were 42.66, 63.79, and 85.45 percent in the solar-powered cold storage, evaporative coolant, and ambient storage, respectively. Economic advantages of the above technologies, however, require careful consideration of investment costs and longer-term durability and benefits.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: February 2026

Cereals and Flour
Lentils, Rice, and Pigeon Peas
Vegetables
Meat and Animal Products
Oilseeds, Cooking Oil, Sugar, and Fava Beans
Seeds (Improved and Local)
Fertilizers
Diesel and Petrol
Exchange Rates
Labor wages
Market Actors’ Perceptions

Five misconceptions distorting food policy in Malawi: A joint NPC-IFPRI position paper

Among countries not affected by conflict, Malawi has the lowest GDP per capita, and its economy has been shrinking for much of the past five years. External shocks have undoubtedly strained an already fragile economy, but policy choices have further stifled growth and amplified vulnerabilities. Many of these choices are rooted in persistent misconceptions, that distort decision-making and undermine progress. This position paper identifies and challenges those misconceptions. We focus only on beliefs that are widespread, lead to seriously distorted policy choices, and are genuinely held by well-intentioned actors committed to inclusive development in Malawi. These actors are our primary audience, as those without this underlying objective are unlikely to be swayed. Our list is selective rather than exhaustive, concentrating on misconceptions that are particularly pervasive and influential in the food systems policy space, and for which robust, evidence-based arguments exist.

Linking Malawian smallholders to larger-scale agribusiness enterprises for inclusive development: A conceptual critique of the anchor enterprise model

While smallholder farming has been and remains at the center of agricultural transformation efforts in Malawi, the limited success of smallholder-centered agricultural development strategies has led policymakers to explore alternative approaches. One emerging approach involves larger farms or agribusiness firms partnering with smallholder farming households, in what we will refer to as an anchor enterprise model. Under this model, smallholder farming households contribute land and labor to produce crops or livestock products that serve as inputs for, or are marketed jointly with, the anchor enterprise. In return, the anchor enterprise provides support such as technical assistance, inputs, transport, or storage. This partnership is intended to be commercial and mutually beneficial. While support for such partnerships is growing and the anchor enterprise model is increasingly being used in development programming in Malawi, there is still little clarity on what they involve, what they aim to achieve, and the conditions they need for success. This study seeks to address these questions and assess whether such linkages between larger farms or agrifood processors and smallholder farming households can contribute to sustainable, resilient, and inclusive wealth creation in Malawi. The findings from this study are also summarized in a policy note (Benson, Cockx, and De Weerdt, 2025).

Anchor enterprise partnerships can be valuable development models in specific contexts. In particular, they can help both larger enterprises and smallholders overcome constraints imposed by weaknesses in Malawi’s factor, input, and output markets, enabling both land and labor to be used more productively. However, the viability of the model depends heavily on the nature of the product at its center. Anchor enterprise models are generally not suitable for grain or other generic staple crops. For such products, partnerships are costly and carry high risk since farmers can easily find and sell to other buyers than their anchor enterprise partner if market prices rise above the agreed price for the partnership (side-selling). Similarly, if market prices drop below the agreed price, enterprises may buy elsewhere (side-buying). Rather, these partnerships are most likely to be economically justified for higher value, less widely grown, more specialized, more complex to produce or process, or highly perishable agricultural products. For these products, the risk of default is lower as the reduction in transaction costs provides both parties with strong incentives for maintaining a longer-term commercial relationship.

These incentives are especially important as the legal framework governing commercial partnerships in Malawi’s agrifood sector remains underdeveloped. Formal contracts were found to be important but not central to successful anchor enterprise operations. Partnerships that endure are built on a strong economic rationale, clear financial incentives for all parties, and a degree of bilateral dependency.

Anchor enterprise models cannot be profitably and sustainably employed for many types of commercial agricultural production in Malawi. Consequently, only a small portion of farming households can directly participate, and the poorest and most vulnerable are generally less likely to be included. Nonetheless, where such models work well, they can deliver indirect benefits to the broader rural community, including its poorer and more vulnerable members, by stimulating local demand for labor, goods, and services. Complementary interventions aimed at strengthening the capacity of the poorest households to capture these indirect benefits may, however, be necessary for the model to contribute meaningfully to inclusive development.

A model centered around commercial farms or agro-processors requires an enabling environment for such enterprises to operate effectively. This includes macroeconomic stability, an investment climate that facilitates private investment in agribusiness, and trade and exchange rate policies that support formal exports. To be sustainable, anchor enterprise models must be grounded in a strong economic rationale for partnering. Government and development partners can, however, support such partnerships without eroding their commercial foundations by, for example, investing in new institutions for conflict prevention and resolution, providing enterprises with assistance in managing relationships with smallholder partners, organizing financial and business training for farmers to reduce information asymmetries, or supporting organizations that can act as effective third-party intermediaries.

Can cash and therapy work in conflict settings?

A randomised evaluation of a cash and psychological intervention in Ethiopia shows that the joint intervention is needed to improve both mental health and economic outcomes, but the effectiveness of the combined intervention is attenuated by active conflict.

Origins and causes of Sudan’s conflict: Domestic and international perspectives

The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and its subsidiary paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that began in April 2023 follows a succession of civil wars that devasted the economically marginalized, socially ostracized, and politically disenfranchised southern and western regions of Sudan, but it has now brought the conflict to the country’s geographic and economic power center. Unlike the decades-long North–South civil wars or the ongoing deadly conflict in Darfur, today’s conflict began in Khartoum and the agriculturally rich heartland of Central Sudan, bringing death and destruction to the central Aj Jazirah and Sennar states, before moving south and west to Darfur and Kordofan. The same historical, economic, political, and ethnic factors that fueled those previous conflicts are at play now, as the belligerent factions seek to control the country’s resources. This time, however, after working together to halt efforts to democratize Sudan, the SAF and RSF turned on each other, each seeking to dominate the kleptocratic state system.

Introduction [in War and resilience: The multifaceted impacts of Sudan’s conflict and pathways to recovery]

Sudan is experiencing one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in its modern history due to the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The war has devastated livelihoods, displaced millions, and significantly weakened the country’s agrifood system and broader economic structure. Since the conflict erupted in April 2023, it has escalated into the world’s largest displacement crisis, with nearly 12 million people—nearly one-third of Sudan’s population-forced to flee their homes, including 4.5 million refugees who have sought safety in neighboring countries, including Egypt, Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia.

Conflict-induced trade dynamics: A gravity framework analysis of Sudan’s agricultural exports

Long before the April 2023 eruption of armed conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Sudan’s economy was crippled by conflicts. The country’s agricultural production and productivity, internal trade, exports, and overall macroeconomic performance have all been adversely affected, and disruptions to the agrifood system, food insecurity, poverty, and malnutrition will likely remain if the conflict continues.

State failure and elite capture of Sudan’s agrifood system

Since the outbreak of Sudan’s civil war in April 2023, nearly 12 million people have been displaced, and an estimated 44,000 have been directly killed by the violence (UNHCR 2026; ACLED 2025). Many more are estimated to have suffered from war-related disease and malnutrition (Roberts 2025). The decimation of the capital city of Khartoum—the epicenter of the jubilant civilian uprisings in 2019—epitomizes the country’s short journey from a promising democratic opening to a failed state.

Worsening food security in Sudan amid conflict

The conflict in Sudan, primarily between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has escalated since April 2023 into a significant crisis, affecting the nation’s stability and security and worsening humanitarian conditions. The conflict has severely degraded the food security of many Sudanese households, with profound effects on their diets, coping strategies, and overall welfare.

Human capital at risk: The impact of conflict on health and education in Sudan

Human capital, including the knowledge, skills, and health of a population, is the foundation for economic growth and development (Lucas Jr. 1988; Mankiw et al. 1992; Pelinescu 2015). Healthcare and education stand out as critical pillars that directly enhance human capital, influencing individual well-being, workforce productivity, and development (Barro and Sala-i-Martin 1995; Schultz 2003; Hanushek and Woessman 2012). Access to quality healthcare ensures a healthy and productive population capable of contributing to economic activities, while education equips individuals with the skills and knowledge essential for innovation and global competitiveness. Together, these sectors constitute the backbone of a nation’s resilience and long-term prosperity (Kim and Ahn 2020; Wang and Gu 2024).

Cereal production, markets, and policy in Sudan

Cereal production has long been a cornerstone of Sudan’s food security and economy, especially wheat, sorghum, and millet. Given the importance of these staples, policy related to imports and prices of wheat (and sorghum, to a lesser extent) has major effects on food production and consumption. In particular, before 2023, government interventions in wheat markets involved huge implicit—and sometimes explicit—fiscal costs, including interventions on large food aid inflows, official sales prices, direct controls on commercial imports, and subsidies on wheat milling (D’Silva and Badawi 1988; Faki and Taha 2009; Abdelaziz et al. 2022). These policies have generally benefited urban consumers at the expense of rural producers and have not always been well-targeted to the poor (Resnick 2021; Resnick 2026, Chapter 3 in this volume).

Economywide impact of Sudan’s conflict and pathways to recovery

Massive human displacement and economic devastation have resulted from Sudan’s ongoing conflict, which erupted on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, as of February 2, 2026, nearly 12 million people were internally displaced in Sudan, and 4.5 million had sought refuge in neighboring countries (UNHCR 2026). Public services, including health, education, and sanitation, have collapsed in many regions, compounding the humanitarian crisis and further destabilizing the socioeconomic fabric of the country.

Monitoring economic activities: Leveraging satellite and remote-sensing technologies

Understanding disruptions to economic activities in conflict-affected regions such as Sudan is essential for policymakers, humanitarian organizations, and researchers seeking to develop effective response strategies. However, traditional data collection methods, such as official government statistics and household surveys, become unreliable or impractical in these contexts due to security risks, displacement, and institutional breakdowns. In such environments, satellite and remote-sensing technologies provide a powerful alternative, offering near real-time, scalable, and objective insights into economic disturbances, infrastructure damage, population displacement, and environmental degradation. Advances in Earth observation technologies now allow researchers to monitor the economic consequences of conflicts with great accuracy and efficiency, even in regions where on-the-ground data collection is impossible (Hoogeveen et al. 2016; Hoogeveen and Pape 2020; Abay et al. 2023).