Publications

Toward a prosperous and secure Sudan: A way forward

As Sudan’s ongoing conflict enters its third year, the scale of human suffering and economic devastation continues to escalate. The brutal war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has devastated livelihoods, shattered infrastructure, and crippled the country’s agrifood systems and broader economy. Nearly 12 million people—one-fourth of Sudan’s population—have been displaced, including more than 4 million refugees who have fled to neighboring countries such as Egypt, Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia (UNHCR 2026). The death toll is estimated to be more than 44,000 as of September 2025 (ACLED 2025), though some assessments suggest fatalities could exceed 150,000 when accounting for deaths from violence, starvation, and disease (Sampson 2025). Children have borne the brunt of this devastation: 16 million are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, and more than 17 million school-age children are currently out of school. The widespread destruction of hospitals, schools, and essential services continues to deepen the crisis, threatening to reverse decades of development and push the country toward systemic collapse.

Spatial disparity, information, and the economics of cool transportation: Insights from a randomized controlled trial in Nigeria

Food loss is a significant source of economic inefficiency in value chains. In many developing countries, including Nigeria, a majority of fruits, vegetables, and other perishable foods are lost after harvest, due in large part to inadequate postharvest handling or low adoption of post-harvest management technologies, particularly cooling technologies such as temperature-controlled transportation and cold storage. To examine the economic impacts of cool transportation connecting vegetable-producing states in northeast Nigeria to large demand centers in Nigeria’s southern regions, we introduced a randomized controlled trial. Cool transportation was found to have a large and statistically significant impact: sales price, revenues, and profits increased substantially for the origin-state marketers. A larger portion of sales price increase at the destination market is attributed to refrigeration, that is, quality preservation through cooling. About 66 percent of this increase comes from cooling, with an additional 34 percent from transportation. An information experiment further showed that improved quality information through labelling that identifies the origin of the produce creates price premiums at the destination market. This implies that significant economic gains can be generated not only from narrowing supply–demand gaps in different markets but also, potentially, through mitigating spatial asymmetric information.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, March 2026

Average retail prices of maize declined by 6 percent in March. Imports of newly harvested maize from Mozambique depressed retail prices in Southern and Central Malawi, while exports to Zambia and Tanzania propped up prices in Northern Malawi, reducing regional price differences in the country.

Pre- and postharvest losses and their correlates in the millet value chain in Nigeria

Food losses continue to constrain food security, rural incomes, and agrifood system efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa, yet comprehensive micro-level evidence across entire value chains remains scarce. This study provides a detailed assessment of pre- and postharvest losses along the millet value chain in northwestern Nigeria, focusing on producers, aggregators, and processors in Sokoto and Zamfara states—two major millet-producing regions. Millet is a nutritionally rich and climate-resilient staple that plays a critical role in Nigeria, making loss reduction in this value chain particularly important for food system resilience.

The analysis draws on a purposefully designed baseline survey conducted in 2024, covering 595 millet producers and downstream value chain actors. The study applies a novel attribute-based loss measurement methodology that captures both quantitative losses (physical grain loss) and qualitative losses (quality degradation and associated price penalties), allowing estimation of losses in both volume and value terms across multiple nodes of the value chain. In addition to descriptive loss accounting, econometric models are employed to identify factors correlated with the incidence/likelihood and intensity of preharvest and postharvest losses at the producer level.

The results show that millet losses are widespread and concentrated at early stages of the value chain. Nearly all producers experience losses, with preharvest and on-farm postharvest stages accounting for the largest share. Total losses along the value chain average about 9 percent of total volume of production and 6 percent of total value of production. These estimates are comparable to the findings by the African Postharvest Losses Information System of approximately 9 percent millet losses in postharvest production activities in Nigeria. Producer-level losses dominate overall losses, although processors also incur substantial losses during storage, handling, and transportation. Spillage, pest infestation, moisture exposure, and inadequate handling practices are the most frequently reported causes of postharvest losses among downstream actors, although losses by aggregators are generally low.

Loss patterns vary systematically across space and demographic groups. Producers in Zamfara experience significantly higher losses than those in Sokoto, with preharvest losses playing a more prominent role. Youth and male producers incur higher total losses than mature producers, while gender differences are also observed in the composition and timing of losses across production stages. These patterns underscore the importance of spatially targeted and demographically sensitive loss-reduction strategies.

Econometric results highlight the central role of technology adoption, asset ownership, and management practices in loss reduction. Higher education levels, greater asset ownership, and larger farm size are associated with lower loss intensity, while preharvest shocks significantly exacerbate postharvest losses. The use of improved transportation, winnowing, and storage technologies substantially reduces postharvest loss intensity, whereas higher rainfall and temperature during postharvest periods increase losses.

Overall, the study demonstrates that food losses in Nigeria’s millet value chain are systemic but largely preventable. Effective loss reduction requires integrated, value chain–oriented interventions that combine improved production and postharvest technologies, climate adaptation measures, infrastructure investment, and targeted support for youth and smallholders. By providing rigorous micro-level evidence across multiple value chain nodes, the study strengthens the empirical foundation for food loss reduction policies and agrifood system transformation in Nigeria.

Fruit intake among women of reproductive age in northern Tanzania: Baseline findings from the FRESH end-to-end evaluation

To ensure overall health and reduce risk of non-communicable disease (NCDs), a healthy diet low in fat, sugars and salt and high in fruit and vegetables (F&V) is recommended. In most population groups, however, F&V intake is below the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation of 400 g per person/day. In Tanzania, a recent scoping review found that F&V intake was below recommended levels in all population groups examined. Low F&V intake is due to a complex interplay of desirability, affordability, accessibility and availability.

The CGIAR Research Initiative on Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH), now under the CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition (BDN), is designing an end-to-end approach to be evaluated in Northern Tanzania, as previously described in the Research Brief 1. A baseline survey was implemented, and dietary intake and nutrient adequacies among women of reproductive age (WRA, 15-49 years of age) participating in the baseline survey were summarized elsewhere. Here we provide a deep dive into fruit intake among these women.

Saving lives through technology: Mobile phones and infant mortality

Systematic risk profiling: Assessing compounding economic risks in developing countries

This paper presents a systematic risk profiling (SRP) framework to identify the most critical economic risks facing developing countries. Integrating computable general equilibrium (CGE) models with historical shock data and machine-learning tools, we examine how compound shocks affect development outcomes. We apply this method to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi, simulating thousands of plausible combinations of world price, capital flow, and productivity exogenous shocks and their impacts on countries’ GDP, household consumption, poverty, and undernourishment. The results reveal distinct risk profiles driven by structural differences: Kenya’s primary vulnerability is the volatility in global beverage crop prices, whereas Rwanda and Malawi face the highest risks from domestic root crop and cereal yields, respectively. These findings underscore that vulnerability is not just a function of shock magnitude, but of the specific structure of each economy. Specifically, the high economic volatility in Malawi and Rwanda is driven by the larger role of subsistence agriculture and more volatile domestic yields, whereas Kenya’s agricultural sector is more export-oriented. Unlike standard ad hoc scenario analysis, SRP quantifies both the likelihood of compound events and the relative importance of their drivers. This transparent, scalable framework provides policymakers a new tool to move beyond reactive measures and design targeted, country-specific resilience strategies for an increasingly volatile world.

Nutrition, diet, and academic performance among school-age children in urban low-income settings: A case-control study in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Objective
To examine the effects of nutrition, dietary practices, and other related factors on academic performance and IQ among children in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Methods
A case-control study was conducted among 309 children aged 6–14 years attending public and private schools in low-income districts of Addis Ababa from March to August 2023. Binary and multinomial logistic regression models were used to estimate crude (COR) and adjusted odds ratios (AOR) with 95% confidence intervals.

Results
Hand washing (AOR = 3.7; 95% CI: 1.4, 9.8), access to toilets (AOR = 3.37; 95% CI: 1.25, 9.09), and effective teaching (AOR = 2.94; 95% CI: 1.04, 8.33) good academic performance. Stunting (AOR = 0.16; 95% CI: 0.04, 0.59), underweight (AOR = 0.25; 95% CI: 0.09, 0.70), and overweight (AOR = 0.04; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.14) were associated with poor academic performance. Low meal frequency (AOR = 2.65; 95% CI: 1.06, 6.67) and teachers with BA/BSc degrees (AOR = 6.97; 95% CI: 1.14, 42.68) predicted lower IQ.

Conclusion
Many factors, especially nutrition and diet, strongly influence academic and cognitive performance; targeted school interventions improve outcomes.

The effects of cash and group therapy in the context of conflict: Evidence from a randomized evaluation in Ethiopia

The prevalence of depression remains high in low-income contexts, particularly those affected by conflict. This paper reports on a randomized controlled trial conducted in rural Ethiopia assessing the effects of a psychological (group therapy) intervention delivered by non-specialist health staff, as well as a large one-time cash transfer delivered post-therapy. The trial includes three arms comparing group therapy, cash, and both jointly to a status quo control within a sample of individuals reporting some depressive symptoms or functional impairment at baseline. The study occurred between 2022 and 2024, during a period of active armed conflict. Findings show that sixteen months post-baseline, there are no persistent positive effects of group therapy alone; cash alone improves time use and economic outcomes. Group therapy and cash jointly improve psychosocial skills, time use, and economic outcomes, and in areas not affected by conflict, the joint intervention also improves mental health.

Market channel and other drivers of tomato farmer production and handling practices in Nigeria

Non-contract farming arrangements remain the dominant marketing option for poor, often food-insecure smallholder farmers in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), yet such farming arrangements are less studied than contract farming. Using a case study of 1,673 Nigerian tomato farmers, this study examined whether selling to midstream actors such as wholesalers and aggregators (via informal market arrangements) supports farmers’ adoption of good agricultural practices. We first explored the drivers of farmer sales to different market channels using a multinomial logit model. Then, using multivariate probit analysis, we identified factors associated with the adoption of good agricultural practices (GAP) and good handling practices (GHP) with particular attention to a farmers’ market channel. We found that larger smallholder farmers using modern irrigation are more likely to sell to midstream actors. We also found that selling to wholesalers and aggregators is an important determinant of farmers’ adoption of GAP and GHP, and this holds even for the smallest smallholder farmers. These results confirm that even where informal trading arrangements dominate (as is common in most LMICs), value chain actors in the midstream of food supply chains can support farmer adoption of GAP and GHP. These relationships have important implications for food security via enhancing the livelihoods of smallholder producers and improving the availability and safety of fresh produce for consumers, and thus should be leveraged in the design and implementation of efforts to expand farmer adoption of GAP and GHP.

Cooling technologies and long-term efficiency improvement of horticulture market agents: Panel data evidence from a solar-powered cold storage intervention in Nigeria

Modern cooling technologies that use renewable energy sources have been increasingly recognized as a promising tool to address a multitude of challenges emerging in progressively complex food systems in developing countries. When provided as cold storage inside horticulture markets, cooling technologies can contribute to improved quality of products and strengthened vertical linkages. Knowledge gaps about the medium- to long-term impacts of these technologies in developing countries remain, especially in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA). This study partly fills this knowledge gap by revisiting the 2021 short-term impact evaluation study (Takeshima et al. 2023) to assess the medium- to longer term impacts of interventions in northeast Nigeria in which 7 small solar-powered cold storages were installed across 7 horticulture markets. Combinations of difference-in-difference and variants of propensity score-based methods suggest that using cold storage significantly increased horticulture sales volumes and revenues of market agents. Using cold storage also reduced the share of food loss and lengthened the products’ shelf-life while raising prices received by both market agents and farmers, which were associated with improved product quality, expanded value-adding activities by market agents, and increased use of advance payments. We find no evidence of negative spillover effects inside horticulture markets. Observed effects are driven by the technical improvements that raise the efficiency of the use of purchased raw commodities, enabled by cold storage, based on modified efficiency analyses. At the same time, the efficiency of cold storage use remains low despite some improvement over time, and scopes exist to enhance this efficiency.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: January 2026

Figures on: Cereals and Flour, Lentils, Rice, and Pigeon Peas, Vegetables, Meat and Animal Products, Oilseeds, Cooking Oil, Sugar, and Fava Beans, Seeds, Fertilizers, Diesel and Petrol, Exchange Rates, Labor wages, and Market Actors’ Perceptions,

Evidence-Led Solutions for Ethiopia’s Rural Transformation Challenges – Ethiopia Policy Innovation Hub – Launch and Policy Dialogue

Conceptualizing and measuring dimensions of tenure security: Gendered analysis from Malawi, Bangladesh, and Nepal

Women’s property rights and tenure security are recognized as critical for development policy and practice. Yet there is no consensus on how to conceptualize or measure these concepts. In this paper, we explore the relationships between perceived tenure security, as reported by survey respondents, with documentation and the bundle of rights that are often used to define property ownership. We use data from the pilot of the Women’s Empowerment Metrics for National Statistics (WEMNS) in Malawi, Nepal, and Bangladesh on both agricultural land and housing. The land rights module was designed to match indicators being collected to support the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Similar questions were asked regarding the dwelling. Regression results find few associations between perceived tenure security and property rights (holding individual or sole land rights, having your name on a document, and holding rights to sell and bequeath). We thus use Sankey diagrams to visualize these relationships. In Malawi, two-thirds of those without documents, both men and women, are tenure secure. In Bangladesh, over half of the respondents are landless and thus do not have tenure security. Two-thirds of Bangladeshi women respondents in landed households report that they are tenure secure, in spite of not having their own names on the documents. In Nepal, we find a high level of both property ownership (90 percent) and tenure security (80 percent). The patterns differ across contexts and between land and housing. The results confirm that the documentation of rights and having sole or joint rights are important but should not be conflated with tenure security.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, February 2026

Average retail prices of maize recovered from a January slump before returning to a longer-term trend of marginal decline.

Retail price changes were driven by changes in the cost of imported maize.

Imports dominated cross-border trade in maize despite some strong but localized informal exports to Zambia and Tanzania.

The making of a non-parametric multi-shock index (MSI)

Households in low- and middle-income countries increasingly face overlapping economic, climatic, health, and conflict-related shocks that jointly erode welfare and food security. Yet many empirical and operational tools still measure shocks one at a time or aggregate them using ad hoc rules that assume equal severity and linear effects. This paper proposes a non-parametric multi-shock index (MSI) that summarizes household exposure to multiple shocks using an assumption-light, data-driven approach. The MSI construction proceeds in two steps: (i) shocks are empirically filtered based on their observed negative association with food security outcomes (anchored to the Food Consumption Score), and (ii) retained shocks are aggregated using alternative weighting schemes, including unweighted, population-weighted, and prevalence-weighted variants. We validate the MSI using multiple food security measures—Food Consumption Score (FCS), Reduced Coping Strategy Index (rCSI), Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES), and Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS). An application using FAO’s Data in Emergencies (DIEM) household survey for Nigeria illustrates the approach and shows that cumulative exposure—especially systemic and compound exposure—is strongly associated with deteriorating food security outcomes. Among tested variants, the prevalence-weighted MSI provides the clearest discriminatory power and distributional sensitivity, supporting its use for targeting, monitoring, and shock-responsive programming (FAO, 2016; Maxwell et al., 2014; World Bank, 2018).

A systematic scoping review of urban food environment research, interventions and measurement approaches in eight low- and middle-income countries

Background
Food environments in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are undergoing rapid transformation, particularly in urban and peri-urban settings. These shifts—characterized by changes in food retail landscapes, consumer purchasing behaviors, and the availability and affordability of nutritious foods—have significant implications for nutrition. Yet, the key characteristics of these environments, such as food desirability, convenience, accessibility, and marketing influences, remain underexplored. This systematic scoping review synthesizes evidence published between 2001 and 2023 across eight LMICs (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Philippines, Kenya, Ghana, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Peru) to examine how urban and peri-urban food environments shape dietary behaviors and nutrition outcomes.

Methods
Guided by a conceptual framework encompassing nine key food environment dimensions—availability, prices, marketing and regulation, vendor and product properties, accessibility, affordability, desirability, convenience, and sustainability—we analyzed descriptive, associative, and intervention studies. We searched Scopus and Web of Science, identified 1,609 records, and included 251 studies in the review.

Results
As might be expected in a growing body of evidence, most research is descriptive, with limited causal or intervention-based evidence. Studies frequently focus on characteristics of informal vendors, sociocultural factors influencing shifts in dietary choice toward unhealthier options, and the proliferation of ultra-processed foods, especially near schools and in informal markets. Associations between food environment and nutrition outcomes, such as elevated BMI and overweight, are often linked to supermarket and fast-food access, though these relationships are frequently confounded by socioeconomic variables. Methodological inconsistencies in defining and measuring food environment dimensions limit cross-context comparability. Only seven intervention studies were identified, with few demonstrating significant improvements in diet or nutrition.

Conclusions
This review highlights critical evidence gaps in urban food environments in LMICs and underscores the need for standardized measurement and robust evaluations of diet-related interventions. Strengthening this evidence base is essential to inform food policy, urban planning, and public health strategies that promote healthier diets for populations in rapidly urbanizing settings.

Impact of climate change on cost and cost efficiency of solar irrigation in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Irrigation is widely recognized as a promising strategy for enhancing agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. To support its expansion, solar-powered irrigation systems are increasingly promoted as a sustainable alternative. However, unlike fossil fuel-based systems, the performance of solar irrigation is more sensitive to climate variability and change. This study assesses the impact of climate change on the cost and cost efficiency of stand-alone solar irrigation systems across Sub-Saharan Africa, using 15 CMIP6 climate scenarios. Our findings indicate that climate change is likely to increase investment costs and reduce the cost efficiency of solar irrigation systems compared to diesel-powered alternatives in most countries and agricultural areas of the region. Nevertheless, the expected decline in cost performance of solar irrigation systems is moderate and is likely to be offset by continued reductions in solar panel prices.

Addressing conflict and weather shocks in agrifood value chains: Policy preferences of Nigerian maize wholesalers

Estimating the number of people eating biofortified foods on-farm and from markets: A detailed methodology and tool

Background
Biofortification is a cost-effective and scalable approach to reduce micronutrient deficiencies. Currently there is scant data detailing the number (reach) and proportion (coverage) of individuals consuming biofortified foods, which is a key limitation for policymakers.

Objective
Develop a method to estimate the reach and coverage of biofortified foods using primary and secondary data sources.

Methods
We used data from 2023 to estimate the reach and coverage of zinc biofortified rice in Bangladesh and wheat in Pakistan, and vitamin A maize and cassava in Nigeria. Our calculation is divided into 5 phases: 1) seed availability, 2) agricultural production, 3) on-farm consumption, 4) off-farm consumption, and 5) overall national level reach and coverage. Phase 4 includes two consumption scenarios: full replacement and half replacement, where biofortified foods respectively account for 100% or 50% of the per capita consumption.

Results
In 2023, approximately 13 to 16 million people (8-9% of the population) consumed biofortified rice in Bangladesh. In Pakistan, between 97 to 173 million people consumed biofortified wheat (39-70% of the population). In Nigeria, biofortified maize was consumed by 42 to 66 million people (18-29% of the population) and biofortified cassava by 25 to 38 million people (11-17% of the population).

Conclusions
Our method estimates on-farm and off-farm reach and the reach/coverage of biofortified foods with visible and invisible traits. Because there is insufficient primary or secondary data describing the intake of biofortified foods, we estimated a range for off-farm reach. We estimate that in 2023, between 177 and 293 million people consumed the four biofortified crops explored in this analysis. This approach can be used to estimate the reach and coverage of other biofortified crops in other countries. More information about the consumption of these foods is needed to improve the accuracy of national reach and coverage estimates.

Armed conflict, community-based cash transfers, and social cohesion: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Ethiopia

Gender attitudes in agriculture and positivity bias: A survey experiment in four countries in sub-Saharan Africa

Promoting regional income equity under structural transformation and climate change: An economywide analysis for Senegal

The Cash Transfer & Intimate Partner Violence Research Collaborative: Expertise, impact, and future directions

Violence against women and girls (VAWG) has severe long-term consequences for women’s health and well-being, imposes significant economic costs through lost productivity, and has intergenerational impacts on children. Although evidence exists on effective approaches to reduce VAWG, many interventions are resource-intensive and difficult to scale. Stakeholders increasingly recognize that accelerated progress requires embedding VAWG prevention and response approaches within diverse sectors, including in existing systems and large-scale sectoral programming. Sectors focused on reducing poverty and economic insecurity offer a particularly high-potential but underleveraged opportunity. Despite their extensive reach and influence over the structural drivers of VAWG, these sectors have not traditionally focused on VAWG reduction. The field lacks actionable evidence on how to leverage these large-scale systems to reduce VAWG in ways that governments and other key actors can adopt, finance, and sustain, including approaches that reach women and girls in fragile and climate-vulnerable settings.

Does Malawi’s exchange rate regime keep prices low? Evidence and policy implications

The current exchange rate regime in Malawi is untenable. It results in multiple effective parallel rates, which impose significant costs on the economy and the daily lives of citizens. A key concern underpinning the existence of the regime is that its removal would trigger rampant inflation and worsen livelihoods. However, the widespread importation of both food and nonfood products at informal exchange rates means that the average citizen derives little real benefit from the maintenance of the official rate. After two major fuel price hikes in recent months, pump prices have nearly converged with the cost that would prevail at market-determined exchange rates.

Drawing on a combination of price multiplier and food demand simulations, this policy note shows that an exchange rate regime rationalization – through devaluing the official exchange rate to eliminate the informal premium and allowing the Malawi kwacha to trade at market-clearing levels – would not lead to runaway inflation or harm household welfare. Recent fuel price increases – in October 2025 and January this year – have pre-emptively absorbed much of the inflationary impact that would have been associated with exchange rate reform.

Our analysis documents the direct, short-run effects of exchange rate unification on domestic prices and finds them to be relatively modest. Longer-term economic growth and sustained price stability will hinge on the effective execution of a coherent set of complementary reforms. Exchange rate unification is a necessary component of this package, but it is not sufficient. Implemented in isolation or treated as a one-off devaluation followed by business as usual, it will bring little relief. It must be accompanied by sound fiscal and monetary policy and sustained export growth to restore macroeconomic stability. We do not discuss the trade-offs inherent to these accompanying measures, as they have been addressed at length in AfDB et al. (2025) and Engel et al. (2025).

Critically, there must be a credible and durable switch toward a more flexible and transparent exchange rate regime. It will take time for exports and growth to pick up after a devaluation, and whether they do will depend on economic actors believing that macroeconomic conditions will remain stable over the lifetime of their investments. It will require careful preparation to get the cocktail right. Politically, the current administration might just have one shot at this: failure will make future reform attempts much harder.

Agricultural trade in Africa: Current trends and challenges

Agricultural trade can play a central role in meeting people’s food needs, both by increasing available supply and by boosting stakeholders’ incomes, given that 60% of the labor force works in this sector (Bonuedi et al., 2020; Wonyra and Gnedeka 2023). However, an analysis of African agricultural trade performance over the past twenty years highlights some key issues to watch. First, African agricultural trade is the lowest in the world, not helped by high costs of trading and non-tariff measures. Second, a trade deficit that has been steadily widening since 2006 as Africa has become heavily dependent on imports of basic agricultural products such as cereals. The continent currently meets more than 40% of its cereal demand on world markets. This deficit in African agricultural trade is fueled by low productivity, linked to declining yields and a lack of sufficient investment in production, storage, processing, and marketing infrastructure, and rapid population growth and urbanization in Africa which has increased demand for imported food. Third, over the past two decades, the structure of African agricultural exports has remained largely undiversified, with unprocessed cash crops continuing to be the dominant export commodity. To better understand the dynamics of agricultural trade in Africa, this brief analyzes its performance, over the 2003-2023 period, by highlighting the most dynamic countries and regional economic communities, the most exported and imported products, and the continent’s revealed comparative advantages.

Mindset or economics: What explains the dominance of maize in Malawi

Malawi’s policy ambitions increasingly emphasize the need for greater crop and diet diversity. De-spite these stated goals, the country’s food system continues to revolve around maize, both in pro-duction and consumption. This brief discusses the economic imperatives that drive low-income, land-constrained Malawians to prioritize maize. Only by addressing these underlying incentives can policy effectively reduce maize dominance and support the diversification agenda it seeks to advance.

Sudan: How warring factions gained influence in the country’s food system – and what it means for the current conflict

Militaries play a major role in the politics of many countries. They determine whether elections can occur and who can compete. From Egypt to Pakistan and Myanmar to Uganda, the military is often the most important powerholder. In parallel, violent non-state actors – including criminal networks, terrorist groups and paramilitaries – have proliferated over the last two decades. To maintain their influence and finance their operations, militaries and violent non-state actors often become heavily involved in both legal and illicit business activities. Studies of their economic activities often focus on their role in extracting natural resources like gold, oil and timber.

Synopsis: Implications of increased urbanization and consumer awareness on future food supplies in Tanzania

This research quantifies how demographic change, urbanization, and healthy diet requirements will reshape Tanzania’s food supply. Using contextualized healthy diet benchmarks, it identifies the scale, composition, and policy implications of food system transformation needed to ensure healthy diets in Tanzania by 2050.

Tanzania’s population is projected to more than double by 2050, with rapid urbanization increasing the share of urban residents from one-third to more than half and intensifying pressure on food supply systems and rural–urban linkages.

To align with this growth, annual food supplies also need to increase by more than double—from about 24 million tons in 2020/21 to 52–62 million tons by 2050—but must do so with fewer food producers.

Current diets are dominated by cereals and sugar, while fruits, vegetables, dairy, eggs, and animalsource foods are substantially under-consumed across all four geographic population strata.

Future food system transformation should primarily focus on increasing supplies of dairy, eggs, fruits, and vegetables, and, for diets focused on micronutrients, meat and fish.

For most priority foods, required productivity gains fall within current global technological frontiers, but environmental constraints—particularly for livestock—necessitate climate-smart intensification and protein source substitution.

High postharvest losses, misalignment between nutrition priorities and agricultural policy—specifically Tanzania’s Agriculture Master Plan—and weak rural–urban food system integration are critical bottlenecks and policy entry points for achieving healthy diets sustainably.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, January 2026

Average retail prices of maize declined in all monitored markets in January by 16 percent on average. The price decline was driven by cheap imports of maize. Imports dominated cross-border trade in maize despite some strong but localized informal exports to Zambia.

Can digital cash transfers serve those in active conflict zones?

Digital cash transfers can be delivered even in active conflict settings like Sudan and can significantly protect vulnerable households – especially in the most insecure areas – from worsening food insecurity, though their impacts vary by context and household characteristics.

The potential impact of wheat stem rust on global agricultural supply, demand, and food security, considering market interactions

Wheat stem rust, a fungal disease that can be highly devastating under the right environmental conditions, was reduced to non-economically damaging levels during the Green Revolution. However, it has reemerged as a global threat to wheat production due to the appearance of new virulent strains in Uganda in 1999 that have spread steadily to other geographic areas. Wheat experts warn that the disease could pose a catastrophic threat to the global wheat supply if not monitored. Considering the importance of wheat as a principal source of calories, nutrients, and farm income throughout the world, assessments of the potential impacts of the disease are urgently required in order to formulate an appropriate response. Published assessments so far vary widely in method and results, and generally focus on wheat production losses alone, without considering how markets may offset or aggravate impacts (spillover effects). Here we take an integrated assessment approach and examine a set of “what-if” scenarios to account for direct and indirect economic and food security impacts of wheat stem rust in various world regions over the years 2026–2050. The severity and frequency of epidemics is introduced into the modeling framework based on a survey of international wheat experts. The results suggest that global market incentives may offset the worst impacts of wheat stem rust in most affected areas via international trade. However, the market mechanism simultaneously precipitates considerable food insecurity in areas far from any epidemic, as farms in these areas reallocate resources from the domestic cereal market to the wheat export market, in response to price signals.

Assessment of potato tuber quality in Kenya: Baseline quality assessment survey report

Potato is the second most important staple crop in Kenya after maize, supporting its food security and providing livelihoods for millions in the value chain, including over 800,000 smallholder farmers. However, fragmented marketing systems, inadequate post-harvest infrastructure, and limited access to quality inputs constrain the performance of the sector and result in severe post-harvest losses. This qualitative study provides empirical analysis on potato tuber quality among 233 farmers in Nakuru and Nyandarua counties, and among traders six different main markets in Kenya. Our findings establish a baseline for potato quality at the farm-level and in major markets, tracking individual shipments to measure degradation during transit due to lack of crucial market conditions and logistical bottlenecks. Our main results reveal some important elements that need to be addressed. Overall, potato quality is compromised at the farm gate, but this initial damage is dramatically amplified post-harvest, with skin abrasions more than doubling and rotting increasing threefold as produce moves along the value chain. Critically, these losses are compounded by limited quality-based sorting and the inadequate use of storage infrastructure, with negligible adoption of cold storage. The study also demonstrates that local/traditional handling practices and poor infrastructure quality are bigger drivers of loss than transport distance. Our research concludes that most economic losses could be addressed, being the direct result of identifiable failures in infrastructure, handling, access to information, and quality governance throughout the value chain. Most aspects of which can be mitigated with digital tools. Indeed, digital tools can enhance farmer-buyer linkages, promote digital education and advisory services -also through collaboration with Farmer Service Centers, encourage cold storage via digital incentives. These recommendations position digital tools as a catalyst for transforming the potato value chain, both directly and indirectly mitigating post-harvest losses while boosting resilience and incomes.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: December 2025

Merchants’ expectations remained broadly stable in December. About 62.5 percent planned to continue trading at current levels, similar to November. However, the share intending to expand trading volumes declined to 20.6 percent from 26.7 percent, with planned expansions mainly concentrated in Blue Nile and South Kordofan. Only small shares of merchants planned to reduce trade volumes (4.4 percent, mainly in Gedaref and North Kordofan) or relocate to other markets (around 4 percent, notably in South Kordofan and Kassala). Temporary exits from trading or changes in product mix were negligible, while uncertainty about future plans increased to 6.6 percent, up from 3.5 percent in November.

Impact of Climate Change on Cost and Cost Efficiency of Solar Irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa

This dataset contains output data of IFPRI’s solar irrigation sizing and cost estimation model which show the impact of climate change on investment cost of adopting stand-alone solar irrigation system and its cost efficiency relative to diesel irrigation system over Sub-Saharan African region.

Synopsis: Implications of urbanization, consumer awareness, and income trends on future food supplies in Senegal

Our food systems (FS) are unable to provide healthy diets in a just and sustainable way, an observation which prompted the United Nations Food Systems Summit to establish a consensus on the need to transform FS. This study examines potential entry points—and resulting implications—to improve Senegal’s FS following expected trends in population growth and urbanization, consumer awareness, and income growth. The study finds that total food supplies need to triple by 2040, with animal-source foods (ASF), fruits, and vegetables requiring increases of a factor of four or more. The study identifies potential strategies to increase the production of these food products while also considering their environmental impact. The study underscores the importance of socially inclusive and equitable outcomes and highlights the need for significant investments to reduce food waste in targeted subsectors.

Using small-object detection to track solar irrigation scaling: Opportunities and limitations

In this study, we pilot a workflow in Fayoum, Egypt, using freely available high-resolution imagery and an iteratively expanded, custom-labeled dataset, to explore whether small-object detection can feasibly track solar-powered irrigation adoption. If feasible, this approach can provide a low-cost, scalable foundation for evidence-based policy. Beyond mapping adoption, the method also has potential to link solar irrigation detection to environmental and agricultural outcomes, such as vegetation dynamics, cropping intensity, or water use efficiency.

Can a light-touch graduation model enhance livelihood outcomes? Evidence from Ethiopia

Validity of the Diet Quality Questionnaire Compared with Observed Intake for Estimating Population-Level Diet Quality in Rwandan Adults

Background
The diet quality questionnaire (DQQ) is a standardized low-burden tool for collecting data on minimum dietary diversity for women (MDD-W) and other population-level diet quality indicators related to risk of noncommunicable disease (NCD). Although 24-h recalls (24hRs) are often used for evaluating validity of DQQ, they may underestimate consumption of specific food groups. Therefore, comparison with observed weighed food records (OWFR), can provide a more accurate assessment of DQQ criterion validity.
Objective
The aim of this study is to evaluate criterion validity of DQQ for estimating population-level diet quality using OWFR and 24hR as reference methods.
Methods
Cross-sectional data were collected among 281 Rwandan adults (Musanze district), using OWFR, DQQ, and 24hR on the same day. Diet quality indicators derived from each method were compared using parametric and nonparametric methods and the method of triads, which calculates pairwise validity coefficients to evaluate accuracy (low: <0.30; moderate: 0.30–0.70; high >0.70).
Results
Mean percent agreement in food group consumption data was high: 93% (DQQ-OWFR; DQQ-24hR). Compared with OWFR, DQQ overestimated MDD-W-prevalence [DQQ: 46.0% compared with OWFR: 40.4%; +6 percentage points (pp), P > 0.05], whereas using 24hR, the MDD-W-prevalence was 29.8% (16.2 pp < DQQ, P < 0.05, and 10.6 pp < OWFR, P < 0.05). Compared with OWFR, mean scores of food group diversity score (FGDS) and NCD-protect were 0.2 (ns) and 0.2 (P = 0.01) points higher by DQQ, respectively, and 0.4 (P < 0.001) points higher by DQQ compared with 24hR. NCD-risk median scores were 0 across methods. For DQQ, validity coefficients were 0.70 (FGDS), 0.67 (NCD-protect), and 0.66 (NCD-risk), compared with 0.93, 0.89, and 0.59 for OWFR, respectively, and 0.84, 0.83, and 0.98 for 24hR, respectively. Conclusions The DQQ showed high agreement with OWFR and 24hR for collecting population-level food group consumption data, and slight overestimations of diet quality indicator scores compared with observed intakes. DQQ is a valid and practical method for collecting population-level food group consumption data and estimating diet quality.

Learning effects of an experiential groundwater resource game in north-eastern Ghana

The growth of dry season farming in Ghana is putting increased pressure on groundwater resources. Using mixed methods this paper examines the learning effect of an experiential groundwater resource game in Ghana’s Upper East Region that simulates real-life resource use and common-pool resource management dilemmas. Results indicate short and medium-term learnings associated with participation in the game. During the game, group interaction and communication improved cooperation and led to more sustainable game behaviours. The gender-specific analysis indicates that females and males may learn and respond differently to the game. Males exhibited more sustainable game behaviours with increased communication and rules whereas female groups showed more learning from round to round. The positive learning effects from the game persisted 12 months after the intervention. Debriefing and focus group participants mentioned lessons learned about the depletable and shared nature of groundwater resources and the importance of communication and collective governance. Participants also described selecting water conserving crops and creating community watering schedules to manage water use. Findings highlight the important role experiential learning games can play in increasing knowledge, motivation, and agency associated with sustainable natural resource use.

Network effects in household consumption patterns: Evidence from northern Ghana

We study peer effects in consumption patterns and their associated welfare implications among rural farm households in northern Ghana using a panel data set. We construct a social interaction network based on household-specific locations and employ a spatial econometric approach that leverages the structure of the peer networks to identify peer effects. The results indicate that peers’ consumption patterns significantly influence individual consumption decisions, with the magnitude of this effect varying across farm households depending on their resource endowments. We also find that information exchange and partial risk-sharing behaviors drive these peer effects. Overall, our findings suggest that government interventions aimed at enhancing household consumption through transfers would be more effective if targeted at households with relatively large peer networks. In addition, anti-poverty and income-improvement programs can leverage peer networks to enhance their overall impact.

Associations between Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) and obesity in women of reproductive age in Northern Tanzania: A cross-sectional study

Background
Obesity is an increasing problem among women of reproductive age (WRA) in Tanzania.

Objective
We described WRA’s nutritional status by socio-demographic factors and assessed associations with diet quality.

Methods
We analysed baseline data from a cluster-randomised controlled trial in Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions (n=2,415). Diet was assessed using a quantitative 24-hour recall. We calculated the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS; 0-49), with higher scores indicating healthier diet. General obesity was defined as body mass index (BMI)≥30 kg/m2; morbid obesity as BMI≥35 kg/m2; and central obesity as: waist circumference (WC)≥80 cm, WC≥88 cm, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR)≥0.85, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR)≥0.50, and WHR≥0.85 or BMI≥30 kg/m2. We tested associations between diet quality and nutritional status using generalised linear models controlling for age and sociodemographic factors and tested interactions to assess differential associations by age groups.

Results
The prevalence of general obesity was 25.1%, morbid obesity 8.4%, and central obesity 48.2-71.6% depending on the definition. Mean GDQS was 20.9±3.9. General and central obesity were more prevalent among women who were older, less educated, had light physical labour occupations, were in the highest wealth quintile, and lived in more urbanised villages and in more food secure households. Higher GDQS was associated with lower risk of morbid obesity: risk ratio (RR) 0.97 (95% CI 0.94, 1.00). Higher GDQS was also associated with 0.25-0.27 kg/m2 lower BMI, 0.54-0.66 cm lower WC, and 0.53-0.58 cm lower hip circumference in women 30-49 years of age.

Conclusion
Better diet quality emerged as a protective factor for morbid obesity and for other obesity measures among women 30-49 years of age. Our study suggests that interventions to improve diet quality in Tanzania should target women in their thirties and forties and those with lower physical activity and higher education, food security, and wealth to maximise effectiveness.

Using best-worst scaling to inform agroecological interventions in Western Kenya

Both the demand for food and the environmental impacts of food production are estimated to significantly increase by 2050. Agroecological interventions have proven effective in facilitating the transition from current food production systems to more sustainable ones. These interventions can not only ensure more equitable food and nutritional security but also address poverty and reduce environmental impacts. As such, agroecological interventions can generate both private and public ecosystem services. Farmers play a key role in how food is produced, as the practices they use are linked with their preferences and expertise, as well as the constraints they face. Understanding farmers’ preferences for the adoption of different agroecological practices and their perceptions of the associated costs and benefits is critical to informing policies that can effectively support farmers in transitioning to more sustainable practices, including those that contribute to the generation of ecosystem services highly valued by broader society. To assess such preferences, we conducted a survey among farmers in Western Kenya which included a best-worst scaling experiment augmented by qualitative questions about the reasons for farmers’ views about the importance of the benefits arising from agroecological practices. Results show that farmers have strong preferences for adopting agroecological practices that generate private goods and are directly related to increasing productivity and food security, including improving health of household members. These may also include practices that have some public good elements as well, such as increasing agrobiodiversity. However, practices that generate broader public good benefits, including improved forest quality/coverage, reduced off-farm environmental impacts, greater community-level resilience to shocks, and improved landscape and wildlife management, were less important to farmers. Such findings can be used to inform policies that support farmer adoption of agroecological interventions best suited to different farming communities, as well as indicating the need for additional types of market-based incentives, such as through Payments for Ecosystem Service mechanisms.

Understanding farmers’ adoption patterns of biofortified crops in Uganda: A case of iron beans

The diffusion of agricultural technologies, such as biofortified crops, is often non-linear, characterised by adoption, discontinuation, and re-adoption. This study examines the factors shaping these dynamic patterns for high-iron beans (HIBs) in Uganda. Based on cross-sectional survey data, we employed a multinomial logit model to categorise and analyse farmer adoption status. The results reveal that a combination of socio-economic and institutional factors significantly influences adoption behaviour. Specifically, the gender and age of the household head, as well as participation in off-farm income, were key socio-economic predictors. Regarding institutional factors, access to reliable markets and the presence of payback schemes emerged as the primary drivers. These findings suggest that overcoming adoption barriers requires addressing both the demographics of farmers and systemic constraints. We recommend a strategic pivot towards decentralising seed production by establishing certified community seed enterprises and enhancing training programmes that focus on both agronomic practices and market linkages to ensure the sustained cultivation of HIBs.

Outcome assessment of the digital agriculture ecosystem in Ethiopia

Ethiopia is making gradual but notable progress toward the digital transformation of its agricultural sector, driven by investments in connectivity, digital infrastructure, and cross-institutional coordination. Recent policy milestones have established an enabling foundation for scale, including the Digital Ethiopia 2025 and Digital Ethiopia 2030, personal data protection regulation and governance frameworks, and national roadmaps that will steer investment and implementation over the next decade—particularly the Digital Agriculture Extension and Advisory Services (DAEAS) roadmap and the Digital Agriculture Roadmap (DAR). However, persistent structural constraints such as limited rural internet coverage, low smartphone penetration, and unreliable electricity continue to shape the pace and equity of adoption. This paper synthesizes Ethiopia’s digital agriculture ecosystem with a focus on technology, data and analytical capacity, and policy environment. In the technology landscape, work is ongoing to develop decision-support applications alongside digital channels for delivering advisory services. Evidence from multiple pilot initiatives suggests these tools can expand outreach cost-effectively and improve the timeliness and relevance of agronomic guidance. The success of various pilot projects, along with valuable lessons from earlier efforts, strong government commitment, and supportive policies, has driven further investment in Ethiopia’s digital ecosystem. Nonetheless, substantial gaps remain in data availability and quality that limits the production of high-quality and context-specific advisory content. In addition, the reach and intensity of extension services needed to translate digital innovation into sustained productivity gains, income and livelihoods is not yet at the level desired. While Ethiopia’s digital agriculture agenda is well-positioned for accelerated scale, its impact will depend on resolving foundational constraints in last-mile connectivity, power reliability, and the institutions and pipelines required for trustworthy data and localized advisory at national scale.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, December 2025

Retail prices of maize remained unusually stabile in December, when prices typically rise. Retail prices were stabilized by sustained informal imports at stable prices.

Synopsis: Economywide assessment of CSA interventions in building resilient agri-food systems in Rwanda

This research extends IFPRI’s RIAPA modeling to include both the full implementation of PSTA 5’s climate smart agriculture and a once-in-five-year weather shock, and the interactions of both on agricultural sectors, agricultural GDP, and on national GDP. Main findings include:

Rwanda’s agri-food system is highly vulnerable to climate variability due to its structural characteristics.

Results indicate that CSA practices during the PSTA-5 period (2024/25–2028/29) increase agricultural GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points annually, with the largest impacts on horticulture and roots and tubers. However, several CSA interventions relate to infrastructural improvements and therefore the benefits extend over a longer time horizon, ultimately having even greater impact beyond PSTA 5.

The weather shock causes dramatic declines in agricultural GDP (-1.6 percent), with horticulture affected most negatively, suffering a 2.4 percent decline.

The joint Climate + CSA scenario depicts how CSA helps mitigate, but not fully eliminate, the negative impacts of weather shocks during the PSTA 5 period.

Towards Inclusive Climate Information Services: What We Learned and What Comes Next: Experiences from AICCRA, 2021-2025

This InfoNote synthesizes lessons from the Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) program (2021–2025) on advancing gender-responsive and socially inclusive climate information services (CIS) across Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Senegal, and Zambia. Drawing on implementation experience, research, and evaluation evidence, it examines how differences in gender, age, livelihood roles, and social position shape access to, use of, and benefits from climate information. The note highlights approaches that improve inclusivity and usability of CIS, including participatory co-production of advisory content, multi-channel delivery systems, gender-responsive extension services, and innovations such as gamification, inclusive artificial intelligence, and gender-responsive cost–benefit analysis. It also explores the role of community platforms, participatory scenario planning, and ag-data hubs in strengthening last-mile delivery and enabling more equitable decision-making. While these approaches demonstrate promising pathways to expand the reach and relevance of CIS, persistent barriers—including unequal access to resources, digital divides, and institutional coordination challenges—continue to limit the ability of women, youth, and marginalized farmers to act on climate information. The InfoNote concludes with recommendations for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners to institutionalize inclusive CIS systems, strengthen evidence and monitoring frameworks, and link climate information with complementary services that enable climate-informed action.

Sudan prices and availability monitoring survey (SPAMS): Methodology, coverage, and value addition

Sudan is facing profound economic and market disruptions driven by prolonged conflict, political instability, and severe macroeconomic deterioration. These shocks have substantially undermined agricultural production, disrupted supply chains, and weakened market functioning across the country. Agriculture, which remains central to livelihoods, food security, and economic activity in Sudan, has been particularly affected by infrastructure damage, population displacement, rising input and transport costs, and increasing fragmentation of markets. In this context, food availability and affordability have become highly volatile, with wide spatial disparities across states and localities.

The economic costs of bribes and road harassment by officials in ECOWAS

Basis risk, social comparison, perceptions of fairness, and demand for insurance: A field experiment in Ethiopia

Index insurance lowers agricultural risk but covers only covariate risks. Since farmers do not have complete insurance, they may develop mistrust of insurance when experiencing crop losses and not receiving payouts. Although recent innovations in remote sensing enable the provision of more complete insurance including coverage for idiosyncratic risks, such insurance introduces differences in payouts within social networks, which might be considered unfair, introduce jealousy, and depress insurance demand. We conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment with farmers in Ethiopia to examine whether providing complete insurance coverage affects perceived fairness and insurance demand. We also examine effects of informing farmers about neighbors’ payout experiences. We find that such social comparison increases perceived fairness of index insurance. Providing complete crop insurance increases perceived fairness of outcomes and willingness to pay for insurance, without introducing jealousy over neighbors receiving different payouts. These results are concentrated among men and those with little insurance knowledge.

Moving the technology frontiers in African agrifood systems: An analytical framework

The transformation of African agrifood systems stands as one of the most urgent and complex development challenges of the 21st century. With over 60 percent of the continent’s population relying on agriculture for their livelihoods, the sector holds tremendous potential to serve as a catalyst for broad-based economic growth, poverty alleviation, and food and nutrition security. This potential, however, remains largely untapped. Agricultural productivity across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continues to stagnate; despite decades of reform efforts and policy commitments, it lags significantly behind other regions of the world (Ulimwengu et al. 2025).

The impact of public price information on farm incomes: Lessons from the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange

Capacity development needs and roadmap

This report integrates an assessment of institutional readiness for Earth observation (EO)-based crop monitoring in Mozambique with a roadmap for sustaining and scaling an EO and digital workflow for agricultural statistics. The aim is to:
Baseline current capacity by systematically evaluating the institutional readiness and willingness within key government organizations to adopt and sustain EO-based systems.
Identify gaps and risks by pinpointing specific challenges, from technical shortages to policy misalignments, that could prevent the sustained adoption of EO technology beyond a project’s life cycle.
Document actions to maintain or raise the institutional readiness level to ensure the project’s desired impact is feasible.

The narrative focuses on what would be required to move from project demonstration to routine production and use, with the Ministério da Agricultura, Ambiente e Pescas (MAAP, formerly the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, MADER) and the Regional Centre of Excellence in Agrifood Systems and Nutrition (CE-AFSN) at Universidade Eduardo Mondlane (UEM, formerly the Centro de Estudo de Políticas e Programas Agroalimentares, CEPPAG) as the main national counterparts and with due recognition of the role of the Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE).

The readiness assessment highlights that Mozambique has strong potential for EO-enabled agricultural data, but that this potential is constrained by fragmented technical capacity, limited government resourcing for software and computing, a reliance on short-term projects and external consultants, and weak institutional arrangements for data ownership, openness, and inter-agency collaboration. It also identifies governance risks created by outdated foundational baselines that continue to shape policy and sampling design.

The roadmap therefore centres on a staged transition. In the near term, priority lies in formalising mandates, custodianship, documentation, and integration pathways with existing survey and census processes. In the medium term, priority lies in building repeatable operational capability and reducing dependence on a small number of individuals. In the longer term, priority lies in embedding stewardship and financing, updating national baselines on a defined cycle, and using the donor-led Development Partners Group for Agriculture and Rural Development (AgRED) group as a coordination mechanism to align partner support and reduce duplication.

Moving the technology frontiers in African agrifood systems: Lessons from Latin America

Africa’s agrifood systems face a complex set of structural challenges. Low productivity, high vulnerability to climate shocks, fragmented markets, and weak integration into global value chains continue to constrain development. Yet these challenges coexist with significant opportunities. The region’s demographic profile—with more than 50 percent of the population under the age of 25 years—and a projected population growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2025 offer the potential for a demographic dividend that could help drive transformation in agri-food systems.

What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2025?

The ongoing conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has triggered severe economic contractions, exacerbating poverty and unemployment while disrupting key sectors of the economy. This study employs an updated economywide database to assess the economic impact of a continued conflict through the end of 2025 under two scenarios of extreme and moderate contractions in the overall GDP. Our findings indicate that by the end of 2025, Sudan’s GDP would decline by 42% under the extreme scenario and 32% under the moderate scenario. The agrifood system would be particularly affected, with its GDP contracting by 33.6% and employment halving under the extreme scenario. Household incomes decline across all quintiles, with rural populations and women experiencing the sharpest losses. The national poverty rate is projected to rise by 19 percentage points under the extreme scenario, further deepening socioeconomic vulnerabilities. To mitigate the widespread adverse impacts of the conflict on the Sudanese economy, policies and interventions should prioritize the restoration of economic productivity, support the agrifood system and employment recovery strategies, and ensure that social protection measures are accessible to all households facing increased deprivation.

Advancing mechanization in African agrifood systems: Unlocking productivity and resilience

This chapter examines the role of mechanization in transforming African agrifood systems within the broader discourse on technological change, structural transformation, and sustainable development. The motivation is to address the persistent challenges of low productivity, rural poverty, labor shortages, and vulnerability to climate change that continue to constrain the agricultural sector across the continent.

How do migrants fare in Africa’s urban labour markets?

“If you want to have sex you can, if you don’t, you don’t have to”: A qualitative evaluation of the Unite for a Better Life couples program to prevent intimate partner violence in rural Ethiopia

Background
Gender-transformative programing targeting couples is an important strategy to reduce intimate partner violence (IPV), but questions around efficacy and safety remain. This qualitative study explores indications of change and unintended consequences of the gender-transformative Unite for a Better Life (UBL) intervention, using data from the couples’ and control arms of a cluster randomized controlled trial (cRCT) in Ethiopia. The cRCT found no impact on physical and psychological IPV and weak evidence of reductions in sexual IPV in the couples’ arm.

Methods
We analyzed 33 facilitator feedback questionnaires and 29 in-depth interviews (IDIs) among couples conducted approximately 30-months post intervention; 14 participated in UBL delivered to couples, and 15 were from the control arm. IDIs were conducted separately with each member of the couple and analyzed thematically in Dedoose to explore indications of change attributed to UBL.

Results
UBL couples attributed improved household task-sharing, communication, and joint decision-making to the program. Men and women developed more gender-equitable attitudes, leading to more fulfilling relationships. Additionally, most participants in violent relationships reported that UBL led to a reduction or cessation of physical and psychological IPV, and a complete cessation of sexual IPV. These effects were largely attributed to shifts at the individual level for men. Men developed better anger management skills, reduced their alcohol consumption, and increased their knowledge around the consequences of IPV. At the relational level, couples reported increased communication, particularly around sexual desire, and reduced conflict. Additionally, participants reported normative shifts, including decreased acceptance of IPV. There were no reports of changes in control participants nor of major unintended consequences.

Conclusions
When delivered to couples, UBL shows promise in shifting individual-level male factors and relational dynamics and reducing conflict and IPV. This suggests that engaging men in couples can be an effective and safe strategy for IPV prevention.

Food processing and nutrition in Africa: Improving diets under the Kampala Declaration

Africa’s food systems are undergoing rapid transformation, yet they remain burdened by a dual nutrition crisis: widespread undernutrition alongside rising obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Food processing stands at the intersection of this challenge—offering both risks and opportunities. This policy brief argues that when guided by nutrition-sensitive strategies, food processing can be harnessed to improve dietary quality, enhance food safety, reduce postharvest losses, and create economic opportunities, particularly for women- and youth-led enterprises. However, the proliferation of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) threatens to worsen public health outcomes unless appropriate regulation and consumer education accompany industrial growth. Drawing on evidence from the Malabo Montpellier Panel’s 2024 VALUE-UP report and innovative case studies across Africa, the brief recommends a multi-pronged approach: supporting fortified and minimally processed foods, strengthening small and medium-sized processing enterprises, advancing food safety systems, and investing in public-private partnerships for nutrition-focused innovation. Linking agrifood processing to better nutrition outcomes is essential to achieving the goals of the Kampala Declaration and the CAADP Strategy (2026–2035).

Rural land rental markets in developing countries: Can survey design innovations improve land market participation statistics?

A longstanding puzzle in the African land rental market literature is the often-observed discrepancy between the number of tenants (renters-in) and the much smaller number of landlords (renters-out) in survey data. If this discrepancy derives from systematic biases in survey data responses on rental market participation, then the existing body of survey-based empirical work on land rental markets impacts may be fundamentally flawed. To examine this issue, we implemented two survey experiments. First, we tested the hypothesis that some categories of rented land are underreported because enumerators and respondents focus primarily on parcels directly managed or cultivated by the household. A random subset of respondents received a priming nudge reminding them to account for all land, including rented- or sharecropped-in and rented- or sharecropped-out parcels. Second, we tested whether households underreport rented- or sharecropped-out land due to reluctance to disclose activities that may carry social or institutional repercussions, using a double-list experiment to infer true rates of participation. Interestingly, our results indicate a significant underreporting of both renting-in and renting-out land but arising through different mechanisms. The priming nudge increased reports of renting-/sharecropping-in by 4 percentage points (equivalent to 13% of landlords in the sample) but had negligible effects on reported renting-/sharecropping-out. By contrast, the list experiment suggests that the true share of renting-out households is about 15%: much higher than the 3% in parcel-roster responses. These results underscore the need for improved survey methods to accurately observe land rental market participation and evaluate its impact.

Exploring relationship pathways to prevent intimate partner violence among young women in Malawi

International estimates of intimate partner violence (IPV) among adolescents and young women are high, indicating the need to address IPV prevention early in life. Structural economic interventions, such as household cash transfer programmes, have the potential to improve the wellbeing of youth who are not the direct recipients of the transfers themselves. However, few studies have addressed this topic in terms of youth romantic and/or sexual relationships. We conducted 39 in-depth interviews with young women aged 19-29 years in households participating in the Government of Malawi’s Social Cash Transfer Programme (SCTP) to examine relationship formation, IPV triggers and experiences, and help-seeking behaviours. We found that young women did not directly attribute SCTP effects to their intimate relationships or IPV experiences. Threats to masculinity and transgressions of women’s gender norms were key triggers of IPV, but specific triggers were linked to specific types of IPV. Furthermore, women sought help for non-IPV concerns more than IPV-related issues. Our results reveal there is a need to strengthen cash transfer programmes and layer them with tailored interventions for adolescents and young women in participant households to improve relationships and prevent IPV early in life.

Transfers, information and management advice: Direct effects and complementarities in Malawi

We examine a program designed to alleviate credit, information, and farm management constraints among smallholder cash crop farmers through transfers and a cross-randomized program offering intensive agricultural extension. We document strong complementarities between the two sets of interventions. Investment driven by increased labor expenditures, production, and consumption are highest for farmers that received both transfers and intensive extension, a pattern that persists two and three years later. In the short run, transfers alone led to the reallocation of input expenditures into increased labor for cash crop cultivation, which led to increased production of project focal crops but not total crop production. While farmers in the transfers only group continue to spend more on labor in subsequent seasons, this does not lead to changes in production or consumption, suggesting that the support of the intensive extension was important for the generation of the largest welfare gains from the transfers.

Effects of home production for home consumption on semi-subsistence economies

Effect of combining lower- and higher-value monthly cash transfers with nutrition-sensitive agriculture, male engagement and psychosocial intervention on maternal depressive symptoms in rural Malawi: A secondary analysis of a cluster-randomised controlled trial

Maternal depression affects one in five women in Malawi. Integrated interventions simultaneously addressing multiple risks are a promising strategy to improve mental health. This study evaluated the impact of a nutrition-sensitive social behaviour change (SBC) intervention (agriculture and livelihoods, male engagement and Caring for the Caregiver) with or without cash transfers on maternal perinatal depression during the lean season in rural Malawi. A midline survey for a cluster-randomised controlled trial was conducted, where 156 clusters were randomly assigned to four arms (39 clusters/arm): (1) standard of care (SoC), (2) SBC, (3) SBC+low cash (US$17 per month) and (4) SBC+high cash (US$43 per month). Pregnant women and mothers of children <2 years of age (n=2677) were enrolled at baseline (May–June 2022). A subsample of 1303 women was followed-up at midline (November–December 2023). Maternal perinatal depression was assessed using the Self-Reporting Questionnaire with a score of ≥8 indicating symptoms consistent with depression. Intervention effects were estimated using linear mixed effects models. At midline, SBC+high cash reduced depression scores relative to SoC (mean difference −1.13 (95% CI −1.96 to –0.31)) but had no impact on the proportion of women with depressive symptoms. Relative to SoC, SBC+low cash and SBC alone had no impact on depression scores or the proportion of women with depressive symptoms. Relative to SBC alone, adding cash to SBC reduced depression scores and the proportion of women with depressive symptoms regardless of the size of the cash transfer. Cash transfers integrated with SBC can benefit maternal perinatal mental health in rural Malawi during the lean season.

Factors associated with health‐related quality‐of‐life among adolescent girls in north‐eastern Ghana: The role of nutrition, socio‐economic factors and family dynamics

Background and Objective
Health‐related quality‐of‐life (HRQoL) among young people is a critical indicator of subjective well‐being and quality‐of‐life (QoL), reflecting individual burdens in relation to family, school and peer environments. Data on the HRQoL of adolescent girls is scanty in sub‐Saharan Africa. This study examined HRQoL and its associated factors among adolescent girls in the Mion District of North‐eastern Ghana.

Methods
The study adopted an analytical cross-sectional study design with data from the baseline survey of Ten2Twenty-Ghana study (n = 909) among adolescent girls aged 10–17 years using pre-tested validated scales, including the KIDSCREEN-27 for HRQoL, a health complaints checklist, a socio-economic and demographic covariates questionnaire, a qualitative 24-h dietary recall used for dietary diversity score (DDS) and anthropometry. ANOVA was used to test the differences between groups in HRQoL. Predictors of HRQoL were determined using linear mixed-effects analysis, with school included as a random intercept to account for clustering effects.

Results
The mean HRQoL score among the adolescent girls was 43.5 ± 6.7 (range 0–100), with 31.8% reporting low HRQoL. In multivariate regression analysis, higher health complaints scores (β = −1.00 ± 0.16; p = 0.001), food insecurity scores (β = −0.42 ± 0.18; p = 0.018) and maternal decision-making index (β = −0.59 ± 0.27; p = 0.028) were inversely associated with HRQoL. Conversely, dietary diversity was positively associated with HRQoL (β = 0.76 ± 0.21; p = 0.001), as was sleep duration (β = 1.01 ± 0.18; p = 0.003).

Conclusion
This study highlights several determinants of HRQoL among adolescent girls, emphasising the complex interplay between health complaints, dietary diversity, food insecurity, maternal decision‐making and sleep patterns. Overall, the findings emphasise the need for integrated public health strategies addressing nutrition, food security and socio‐cultural factors to improve the well‐being of rural adolescent girls in Ghana.

Diets, fruit and vegetables consumption, and nutritional status in Benin: A scoping review

Unhealthy diets, including low fruit and vegetables (F&V) intake, contribute to morbidity and mortality related to non-communicable diseases. Designing culturally appropriate interventions to improve diets and F&V intake requires an in-depth understanding of individual-level dietary patterns, household consumption patterns, and nutritional status resulting from inadequate F&V intake. In this scoping review, we summarised the literature on diets, F&V intake, and nutritional status in Benin. We searched PubMed from 2012 to August 2024 to identify articles on diets and nutritional status, and from 2002 to August 2024 to identify articles on F&V intake. We included 36 articles on diets, 27 on F&V intake, and 16 on nutritional status. Existing literature demonstrated that Beninese diets are cereal-based and monotonous, characterised by low diversity and low F&V intake across all population groups. Available evidence indicated a high burden of undernutrition in children <5 years of age, a rising prevalence of overnutrition in women of reproductive age, and a high prevalence of overnutrition in adults. Evidence on how diets and F&V intake vary by urban/rural location, season, and socioeconomic characteristics was limited and inconsistent. Two evaluations of garden irrigation programmes assessed impacts on women's dietary diversity and F&V consumption. Additional research is needed to improve our understanding of diets, F&V intake, and diet-related nutritional challenges and how they evolve over time and across different population groups. Understanding these gaps can help identify entry points and targets for interventions to improve diet quality and F&V intake in Benin.

Dietary intake and nutrient adequacies among women of reproductive age in northern Tanzania: A cross-sectional study

Background
Dietary inadequacies among women of reproductive age (WRA) increase malnutrition and disease risk.

Objectives
We characterized food group and nutrient inadequacies among WRA in rural Tanzania.

Methods
Baseline data (collected October 2023–January 2024) from a cluster-randomized controlled trial in Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions were analyzed. Dietary intake among WRA (n = 2594) was assessed using a 24-h dietary recall with the OpenDRS approach. This was repeated in a subsample (n = 520, 20%) to adjust for day-to-day variations in individual intake. The National Cancer Institute method was employed to estimate usual energy and nutrient intakes. Micronutrient adequacy was defined as intake greater than or equal to the harmonized average requirements (H-ARs). The mean probability of adequacy (MPA) was calculated as the average adequacy across 11 micronutrients.

Results
On average, women were 38.3 ± 6.2 y old; 19% were lactating, and 4% were pregnant. The mean daily energy intake was 2415 kcal/d [95% confidence interval (CI): 1937, 2895], with carbohydrates contributing 62% to daily energy intake. The mean intake of fruit and vegetables (F&V) was 279 g/d (95% CI: 201, 365), of which fruit was 35 g/d (95% CI: 2, 118) and vegetables 245 g/d (95% CI: 168, 328). Staples contributed half of the daily energy intake. About 1% of participants met calcium and vitamin B12 requirements, whereas 42%, 49%, 68%, and 72% met adequacy for vitamin C, folate, zinc, and iron, respectively. Most women met the H-ARs for riboflavin, niacin, thiamine, vitamin B6, and vitamin A. MPA was 65 (±2.3% standard error), with vegetables, pulses, animal-source foods (ASF), and staples being key micronutrient sources.

Conclusions
Substantial nutrient inadequacies exist among WRA in rural Northern Tanzania due to high cereal intake and low intake of F&V and ASF. Addressing these gaps requires targeted interventions, improved dietary diversity, increased intake of F&V and ASF, and enhanced food security through local production and social safety nets.