IMPLICATIONS OF URBANIZATION, CONSUMER AWARENESS, AND INCOME TRENDS

SFS4YOUTH WORKING PAPER 1

Implications of urbanization, consumer awareness, and income trends on future food supplies in Senegal

By Wim Marivoet

NTRODUCTION
While there is general agreement that our food systems are failing us (Global Panel 2016; Béné et al.
2019a; von Braun et al. 2021), different perspectives exist on the exact nature of this failure. Béné et al.
(2019a) identify four main narratives, which can be summarized as the system’s inability to feed future
populations with healthy diets in a socially just and environmentally sustainable way. At the same time,
food systems are undergoing rapid and structural changes at an ever-increasing pace (von Braun et al.
2021). “Traditional” food systems were mainly local with short supply chains between smallholder farmers
and local markets, where basic staples were sold with little value addition. In contrast, “modern” food
systems range from local to global, with possibly longer supply chains connecting industrial food producers, processors, and retailers, while serving international markets and supermarkets with a wide variety
of unprocessed and processed foods (Ericksen 2008).
Apart from attenuating or neutral effects, most of the ongoing and future drivers affecting the functioning
of food systems carry multiple risks that could aggravate the degree of failure (von Braun et al. 2021).
For example, the expected growth in household incomes will increase overall demand for food (including
more nutritious and animal-source foods), which will not only widen the yield and nutrient gaps of current
food production but will also increase its environmental footprint. Likewise, the intensification and homogenization of agricultural production may certainly help to feed a growing population, but will contribute to
a deterioration of soils and agroecological conditions (Béné et al. 2019b). While there is general agreement that our food systems are failing us (Global Panel 2016; Béné et al.
2019a; von Braun et al. 2021), different perspectives exist on the exact nature of this failure. Béné et al.
(2019a) identify four main narratives, which can be summarized as the system’s inability to feed future
populations with healthy diets in a socially just and environmentally sustainable way. At the same time,
food systems are undergoing rapid and structural changes at an ever-increasing pace (von Braun et al.
2021). “Traditional” food systems were mainly local with short supply chains between smallholder farmers
and local markets, where basic staples were sold with little value addition. In contrast, “modern” food
systems range from local to global, with possibly longer supply chains connecting industrial food producers, processors, and retailers, while serving international markets and supermarkets with a wide variety
of unprocessed and processed foods (Ericksen 2008).

Apart from attenuating or neutral effects, most of the ongoing and future drivers affecting the functioning
of food systems carry multiple risks that could aggravate the degree of failure (von Braun et al. 2021).
For example, the expected growth in household incomes will increase overall demand for food (including
more nutritious and animal-source foods), which will not only widen the yield and nutrient gaps of current
food production but will also increase its environmental footprint. Likewise, the intensification and homogenization of agricultural production may certainly help to feed a growing population, but will contribute to
a deterioration of soils and agroecological conditions (Béné et al. 2019b).

Find out more on this paper here