GOVERNMENT CREDIBILITY AND AGRICULTURAL FINANCING UNDER THE CAADP FRAMEWORK

IFPRI Africa cordially invites you to a Brown Bag Seminar on

‘’Government Credibility and Agricultural Financing Under the CAADP Framework: A model with endogenous credibility decay and punishment for non-compliance‘’

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

8:00-9:00 AM (EST) | 12:00-1:00 PM (GMT) | 3:00-4:00 PM (EAT)

Presented by:

John M. Ulimwengu, PhD

Senior Research Fellow| Development Strategies and Governance Unit | IFPRI Africa

Abstract:

This paper investigates the role of government credibility in shaping agricultural financing outcomes under the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). Despite widespread endorsement of the CAADP 10% public investment target, adherence remains inconsistent, undermining stakeholder trust and long-term financing prospects. Using a dynamic model, the study conceptualizes credibility as an evolving function of past adherence and cumulative deviations, influencing how external actors—such as donors and investors—respond to government behavior. Credibility is empirically evaluated through a normalized index constructed from adherence trends and discounted historical deviations from the 10% agricultural spending target. Analysis across African countries reveals strong associations between credibility and official development assistance, though less so with foreign direct investment. The paper argues for integrating financial and institutional enforcement mechanisms—such as conditional aid or regional sanctions—into CAADP’s accountability framework to improve adherence and mobilize long-term support for agricultural transformation.

Presenter:

John Ulimwengu is a Senior Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit who currently works on food systems mapping in selected African countries. His research interests include food systems dynamics, resilience, and spatial typology for food and nutrition security. Since 2007, John has been involved in strategic research on the transformation of food systems in Africa under the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) agenda and has served as the Africa-wide coordinator of the Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS).

Discussant:

Danielle Resnick is a Senior Research Fellow in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Brookings Institution in the Global Economy and Development Program.

Moderator:

Dr Wambo Yamdjeu, Director of Knowledge Systems, AKADEMIYA2063