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Evidence for Africa | June 30, 2026

Fresh insights from new research shaping Africa’s food systems, resilience, and economic development

Key Insight of the Week

Global geopolitical shocks can have far-reaching consequences for Africa’s agrifood systems. New IFPRI research finds that the ongoing Iran conflict is increasing pressure on fuel, fertilizer, and food prices in Nigeria, while also highlighting opportunities to strengthen domestic production and regional trade.

Featured Report of the Week

Effects of the Iran conflict on fuel, fertilizer, and food prices in Nigeria, by Oliver K. Kirui, Adetunji Fasoranti, Temilolu Bamiwuye, Bedru Balana, Joseph W. Glauber, Charlotte Hebebrand, and Steven Were Omamo

How could the ongoing Iran conflict affect Nigeria’s agrifood system?

In this week’s Evidence for Africa, IFPRI researchers examine how disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are increasing global oil and fertilizer prices, creating new pressures on Nigeria’s food system.

The policy note explains that although Nigeria has expanded its domestic refining and urea production capacity, it remains dependent on imported refined fuel, potash, phosphate, and other fertilizer inputs. Rising transport, logistics, and production costs are placing additional pressure on farmers, food systems, and household welfare.

At the same time, the authors identify opportunities for Nigeria to strengthen domestic refining, expand fertilizer production, deepen regional trade, and position itself as a major supplier of fuel and fertilizer across Africa. The findings highlight how timely policy responses can help mitigate external shocks while strengthening longer-term resilience.

Read the full paper

Other Recent Publications

Book(s)Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African perspectives for pos… (OA)
Piñeiro, Valeria; Mevel, Simon; and Piñeiro, Martin (Eds.)
Book Chapter(s)

Africa’s agricultural trade performance and structural barriers (OA) by Traoré, Fousseini; Takpara, Moukaila

Africa’s key issues in WTO negotiations, MC14 and beyond (OA) by Sunday, Ogwuche; and Muriuki, Nelly Rita

Agricultural trade structure, disruptions, and competitiveness in Latin America and the Caribbean (OA) by Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Rueda, Jorge; Mesquita Moreira, Mauricio

Evolving trade instruments in a fragmented system (OA) by Bellmann, Christophe; Ismail, Yasmin; Lehmann, Fabrice

Final remarks [in Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African perspectives for post-MC14] (OA) by Piñeiro, Valeria; Piñeiro, Martin; Mevel, Simon; and Liu, Beini

Geopolitical changes and the new agricultural trade environment (OA) by Piñeiro, Martin; Piñeiro, Valeria; Mesquita Moreira, Mauricio

Innovation, sustainability and the new frontier of competitiveness in the agrifood sector (OA) by Papendieck, Sabine; Villarreal, Federico; Elverdin, Pablo

Introduction [in Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African per… (OA) by Piñeiro, Valeria; Piñeiro, Martin

LAC’s role in global food security and the multilateral system (OA) by Illescas, Nelson; Vicentin Masaro, Jimena

Regional integration, resilience, and innovation (OA) by Sall, Leysa Maty; Girma, Mahlet; and Havsteen Branner, Victoria. 

Scenarios for agricultural trade in a changing world (OA) by Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Glauber, Joseph W.; Rueda, Jorge; Laborde Debucquet, David

State of the agricultural negotiations and prospects for progress at MC14 (OA) by Glauber, Joseph W.

The WTO from a Latin American and Caribbean perspective: Why rules still matter (OA) by Abraham Peralta, Gloria 

IFPRI Discussion Paper(s) 

Can local procurement for food aid foster market development? Evidence from indirect conditional co… (OA) by Abate, Gashaw T.; Mugabo, Serge; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Van Campenhout, Bjorn Other Publication(s)

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: May 2026 (OA) by Rakhy, Tarig; Mohamed, Shima; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Suliman, Gotada; Siddig, Khalid

Pre- and postharvest losses and their correlates in the Irish potato value chain in Kenya (OA) by Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane; Geoffrey, Baragu; Niyonsingiza, Josue; Popoola, Olufemi

Vegetable intake among women of reproductive age in northern Tanzania: Baseline findings from the F… (OA) by Azupogo, Fusta; Hess, Sonja Y.; Bliznashka, Lilia; Arnold, Charles D.; Djuazon, Nelly; Jeremiah, Kidola; Malindisa, Evangelista; Kinabo, Joyce; Cunningham, Kenda; Olney, Deanna K.

About Evidence for Africa

Evidence for Africa highlights every week recent IFPRI research and insights relevant to the continent’s food systems, economic development, and policy priorities.

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Visit the archive of Evidence for Africa to explore past releases and insights here