By Kate Ambler and Gillian Hollerich

Across Nigeria, millions of smallholders face a compounding set of pressures, including climate variability, conflict and displacement, and volatile input prices, despite significant agricultural potential. Access to high-quality, improved seed varieties is one of the most effective pathways to resilience, which is critical to promoting stability amid the threat of these compound shocks. Oliver Kirui, Research Fellow and Acting Program Leader of IFPRI Nigeria, noted that building seed systems that work for farmers by promoting access to these improved varieties and high-quality seeds remain understudied.

These themes were explored during the February 11, 2026, IFPRI policy seminar, “Promoting Resilience through Improved Varieties, Quality Seed, and Better Seed Systems: Lessons from Nigeria,” the latest in IFPRI’s Fragility to Stability Seminar Series. The event brought together researchers, seed system practitioners, and policymakers to examine three new studies on how improved varieties reach, or fail to reach, Nigerian farmers.

New evidence and insights to inform policy

The first presentation, by Rewa Misra, Head of National Policy and Innovative Finance at HarvestPlus, drew on a cluster randomized trial in Gombe State, where conflict has internally displaced an estimated 3.7 million people. The study tested whether subsidized bundles combining biofortified seeds (iron pearl millet, vitamin A maize, and cowpea) with fertilizer and other inputs could lead to the adoption of these seeds and appropriate practices among both internally displaced persons (IDPs) and host communities, and whether the benefits were equitable across these groups.

The results were encouraging. The project tested two subsidy levels (50% and 75%), and both led to high levels of purchase and application of the bundle components. There were no significant differences between IDP and non-IDP households. However, the study found little to no impact on yields of the targeted crops, likely due to the relatively small amounts of seed provided in the bundles.

Catherine Ragasa, IFPRI Senior Research Fellow, presented the second study, which addressed a long-standing question: why do Nigerian farmers continue to plant varieties that are 14 to 26 years old when newer, higher-yielding, climate-resilient options exist? In Kaduna and Bauchi states, the promoted varieties in her study outperformed farmer varieties by substantial margins in demonstration studies, yet at baseline, awareness and adoption of these varieties were nearly zero.

In a randomized controlled trial, Ragasa and her colleagues tested seed trial packs alone and bundled with consumption-oriented interventions (group cooking and tasting sessions). Seed trial packs increased adoption rates by 30–49 percentage points and generated meaningful spillover to neighboring farmers who had not received packs.

The third presentation, by Mulubrhan Amare, IFPRI Senior Research Fellow, examined the adoption and impact of genetically modified pod borer resistant (PBR) cowpea. PBR cowpea was released in Nigeria in 2019 and was designed to resist one of cowpea’s most damaging pests. In a cluster randomized trial in Katsina and Jigawa states, PBR cowpea increased yields by approximately 19% and gross margins by 45–47% compared to conventional improved varieties. Post-harvest losses fell by nearly half among households that received PBR cowpea alongside complementary inputs.

A key finding was the significant reduction in insecticide use with corresponding improvements in farmer health. Researchers found reductions in days of illness and days lost to work. Despite these results, commercial penetration of PBR cowpea remains low, constrained by seed supply and farmer awareness, similar themes to those documented in the other studies.

Bridging research and policy on improved seed adoption

The panel brought together practitioners and researchers with expertise in seed systems in Nigeria. With these findings in mind, panelists, including Chinedu Agbara from Sahel Consulting, Jada Mohammed from Oxfam Novib, Muhyideen Oyekunle from the Institute for Agricultural Research (IAR), and Jonathan Mockshell from the Alliance of Bioversity-CIAT, considered what this evidence means for agricultural policy and practice.

One recurring theme became clear: low adoption is not caused by a failure or a lack of willingness on the part of farmers; it is a consequence of systems failure. This includes supply chain issues limiting the availability of improved seeds in local communities, highlighting the need for policy support for private seed companies that produce and distribute improved varieties. Infrastructure to sensitize farmers to the new varieties and provide support for their adoption, as well as  quality control measures ensuring that available seeds will have the desired results, are also key to addressing these systemic challenges.

There was also broad consensus from the panel that subsidies are justified to overcome liquidity barriers and build initial trust in new varieties, particularly for IDPs and other vulnerable populations in fragile contexts. But panelists cautioned against open-ended subsidy dependence, calling for targeted, time-limited approaches that differentiate by farmer vulnerability.

The panel also underscored the broader applicability of these findings. The constraints Nigeria faces are shared across much of sub-Saharan Africa and offer transferable lessons. However, regulatory environments for biotech varieties in particular vary significantly across countries, and policy adaptation where appropriate will be essential to realizing the potential of varieties like PBR cowpea beyond Nigeria.

Fostering resilient policy environments

In the seminar’s closing remarks, Arun Baral, CEO of HarvestPlus, highlighted that while the agronomic and economic evidence is convincing, there must be a suitable policy architecture to put it to work. Baral pointed to Sammaz 52, a biofortified maize variety, as proof of what is possible. This variety, now covering 22% of Nigeria’s total maize area, was achieved through commercialization, not just subsidy. Similarly, high-zinc wheat introduced with partners in Pakistan now reaches 42% of the national wheat area.

Shocks such as food price hikes and financial crises, environmental and natural disasters, armed and political conflicts, and disease outbreaks can intensify the risk of food and nutrition insecurity, drive people into poverty or prevent them from graduating out of poverty, and spur migration. Yet with a supportive regulatory environment, functioning supply chains, and a system to support farmers, scaling of high-quality, improved seed interventions to help build resilience is possible. And when farmers are better able to prepare for, mitigate, cope with, and recover from shocks, they can not only bounce back but even become better off.