Publications

Sudan prices and availability monitoring survey (SPAMS): Methodology, coverage, and value addition

Sudan is facing profound economic and market disruptions driven by prolonged conflict, political instability, and severe macroeconomic deterioration. These shocks have substantially undermined agricultural production, disrupted supply chains, and weakened market functioning across the country. Agriculture, which remains central to livelihoods, food security, and economic activity in Sudan, has been particularly affected by infrastructure damage, population displacement, rising input and transport costs, and increasing fragmentation of markets. In this context, food availability and affordability have become highly volatile, with wide spatial disparities across states and localities.

The effect of teacher training and community literacy programming on teacher and student outcomes

Motivated by extremely low levels of basic reading skills in sub-Saharan Africa, we experimentally evaluate two interventions designed to enhance students’ early-grade literacy performance in rural Mozambique: a relatively light-touch, scalable teacher training in early-grade literacy including the provision of pedagogical materials, and teacher training and materials in conjunction with community-level reading camps. Using data from 1,596 third graders in 160 rural public primary schools, we find no evidence that either intervention improved teachers’ pedagogical knowledge or practices or student or teacher attendance following two years of implementation. There are some weak positive effects on student reading as measured by a literacy assessment, primarily observed in a shift away from scores of zero, and these effects are consistent across arms. Our findings are aligned with the growing consensus that more intensive school- and/or community-based interventions are required to meaningfully improve learning.

Agricultural technology adoption and deforestation: Evidence from a randomized control trial

We study the effect of the adoption of improved agricultural inputs on deforestation using a randomized control trial in Nigeria which introduced a more efficient and environmentally-friendly nitrogen fertilizer. We combine survey data from the intervention with earth observation data to develop a generalizable method for evaluating the effects of cluster-level interventions on landscape-level outcomes. We find evidence of an intensification response to treatment exposure that reflects significant heterogeneity across land cover. On land with relatively sparse pre-intervention tree cover, treatment exposure increased deforestation while in denser forest areas the intervention reduced deforestation. We find corresponding effects showing treatment exposure increases agricultural productivity. Our results reflect an intensification response to improved agricultural technology that redirects agricultural activity away from forests and towards existing cropland.

Transfers, information and management advice: Direct effects and complementarities in Malawi

We examine a program designed to alleviate credit, information, and farm management constraints among smallholder cash crop farmers through transfers and a cross-randomized program offering intensive agricultural extension. We document strong complementarities between the two sets of interventions. Investment driven by increased labor expenditures, production, and consumption are highest for farmers that received both transfers and intensive extension, a pattern that persists two and three years later. In the short run, transfers alone led to the reallocation of input expenditures into increased labor for cash crop cultivation, which led to increased production of project focal crops but not total crop production. While farmers in the transfers only group continue to spend more on labor in subsequent seasons, this does not lead to changes in production or consumption, suggesting that the support of the intensive extension was important for the generation of the largest welfare gains from the transfers.

Increasing women’s empowerment: Evaluating two interventions in Uganda

We conduct a randomized controlled trial to test a novel intervention for increasing women’s empowerment in Uganda. The intervention includes a within-household transfer of a productive asset, which has a lower cost than an external transfer. We find that transferring control of some of the household’s sugarcane to the wife significantly increases her access to resources and decision-making power. We also document increases in women’s empowerment arising from a cross-randomized couples’ workshop that improved women’s self-concept and shifted beliefs in gender equality. We find no additional impacts from combining the two interventions. Importantly, neither intervention harms the household’s productivity or husbands’ welfare. In fact, men (and women) report higher marital quality and life satisfaction as a result. However, despite increasing women’s empowerment we find no evidence that the interventions increased measured household investment in food security, child health, or education.

Constraints and promising interventions to strengthen fish seed systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Ghana

CONTEXT
Aquaculture has surpassed capture fisheries in terms of production and is among the fastest growing food sectors. It has great potential to contribute to food security and nutrition, poverty reduction, jobs, and environmental sustainability. Fish seed is increasingly considered to be a major driver and disabler of aquaculture development. However, little is known about how fish seed systems operate, their challenges and opportunities, or entry points for strengthening them.
OBJECTIVE
This study analyzes primary data on the challenges and opportunities faced by various actors along the fish seed chain, documents the lessons from a fish seed project (Ghana Tilapia Seed Project, 2019–2022), and provides an analysis of entry points for strengthening fish seed systems.
METHODS
Using an analytical framework that tracks germplasm base, seed production and quality, seed availability and distribution, and the information flow along the fish seed value chain, we analyze the case of Ghana, the top producer of farmed tilapia in sub-Saharan Africa. The study uses a mixed-methods approach, including value chain analysis, action-oriented research methods, and statistical analysis of survey data.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Findings indicate that the initial rapid growth in tilapia production in Ghana was partly due to an improved local strain released in 2004; however, the recent stagnation is largely caused by seed-related issues (poor maintenance and improvement of germplasm base, seed quality and availability, lack of information and coordination, and lack of enforcement of regulations). This study highlights the successes and lessons learned from the Ghana Tilapia Seed Project on broodstock distribution, training on fingerling production, establishment of nurseries, and training of fish farmers. The lessons highlight the need for policy changes and capacity building related to strain development and broodstock management.
SIGNIFICANCE
These findings fill the large gap in evidence on the functioning of fish seed systems and how to strengthen them. They can directly inform ongoing country-level efforts and programs aiming to develop aquaculture.

Estimating multidimensional development resilience

Existing measures of resilience are typically based on a single well-being indicator. This is problematic in contexts where households face deprivations across multiple dimensions. We develop a multidimensional resilience measure, integrating probabilistic moment-based resilience measurement approaches with multidimensional poverty measurement methods. Applying these to household panel data from Ethiopia, we show that univariate and multidimensional resilience measures based on expenditure-based poverty, dietary diversity, and livestock asset holdings can yield varied inferences on the ranking of households as well as potential impact of development interventions. Univariate resilience measures constructed using consumption expenditure, dietary diversity and livestock asset holdings show distinct temporal and spatial distributional patterns. But while univariate measures are weakly correlated with one another and with different well-being metrics, multivariate measures exhibit much stronger rank correlations. When we contrast univariate measures of resilience to multidimensional measures of resilience, we find that the latter vary less over the study period; multidimensional resilience measures seem to capture more “persistent or structural” vulnerability and associated capacity of households. We also demonstrate the differences in these univariate and multivariate measures, including the potential of the composite multidimensional resilience measures for supporting targeting processes.

How can anticipatory action programming support women? Application of the reach-benefit-empower-transform framework in Nepal and Nigeria

Exposure and disease burden of fumonisins and aflatoxins from sorghum consumption in Ethiopia

Studies on mycotoxin exposure from sorghum consumption and related public health risk estimation are rarely available in Ethiopia. The aim of this research was to assess fumonisin and aflatoxin exposure of adults through sorghum consumption in the Amhara National Regional State (ANRS) and at national level in Ethiopia and to estimate related health risks. Data on fumonisin and aflatoxin concentrations in sorghum samples were collected from a survey and literature. Estimated fumonisin exposure in the ANRS and at national level were below the FAO/WHO limit of 2000 ng/kg bw day to be considered a health concern. The estimated aflatoxin exposure levels in the ANRS and at national level fall below the Margin of Exposure value of 10000, indicating potential health concern. The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma due to aflatoxin exposure in the ANRS ranges from 0.0003 to 0.017 while at national level, it ranges from 0.181 to 8.47 (per100.000 persons/year). The related disability-adjusted life years estimates for the ANRS and at national level ranged from 0.0003 to 0.019 and 0.204 to 11.230, respectively. Aflatoxin exposures were driven more by sorghum intake than aflatoxin contamination. Dietary intervention could further reduce the health risk estimates.

Using best-worst scaling to inform agroecological interventions in Western Kenya

Both the demand for food and the environmental impacts of food production are estimated to significantly increase by 2050. Agroecological interventions have proven effective in facilitating the transition from current food production systems to more sustainable ones. These interventions can not only ensure more equitable food and nutritional security but also address poverty and reduce environmental impacts. As such, agroecological interventions can generate both private and public ecosystem services. Farmers play a key role in how food is produced, as the practices they use are linked with their preferences and expertise, as well as the constraints they face. Understanding farmers’ preferences for the adoption of different agroecological practices and their perceptions of the associated costs and benefits is critical to informing policies that can effectively support farmers in transitioning to more sustainable practices, including those that contribute to the generation of ecosystem services highly valued by broader society. To assess such preferences, we conducted a survey among farmers in Western Kenya which included a best-worst scaling experiment augmented by qualitative questions about the reasons for farmers’ views about the importance of the benefits arising from agroecological practices. Results show that farmers have strong preferences for adopting agroecological practices that generate private goods and are directly related to increasing productivity and food security, including improving health of household members. These may also include practices that have some public good elements as well, such as increasing agrobiodiversity. However, practices that generate broader public good benefits, including improved forest quality/coverage, reduced off-farm environmental impacts, greater community-level resilience to shocks, and improved landscape and wildlife management, were less important to farmers. Such findings can be used to inform policies that support farmer adoption of agroecological interventions best suited to different farming communities, as well as indicating the need for additional types of market-based incentives, such as through Payments for Ecosystem Service mechanisms.

Saving lives through technology: Mobile phones and infant mortality

Diets, fruit and vegetables consumption, and nutritional status in Benin: A scoping review

Unhealthy diets, including low fruit and vegetables (F&V) intake, contribute to morbidity and mortality related to non-communicable diseases. Designing culturally appropriate interventions to improve diets and F&V intake requires an in-depth understanding of individual-level dietary patterns, household consumption patterns, and nutritional status resulting from inadequate F&V intake. In this scoping review, we summarised the literature on diets, F&V intake, and nutritional status in Benin. We searched PubMed from 2012 to August 2024 to identify articles on diets and nutritional status, and from 2002 to August 2024 to identify articles on F&V intake. We included 36 articles on diets, 27 on F&V intake, and 16 on nutritional status. Existing literature demonstrated that Beninese diets are cereal-based and monotonous, characterised by low diversity and low F&V intake across all population groups. Available evidence indicated a high burden of undernutrition in children <5 years of age, a rising prevalence of overnutrition in women of reproductive age, and a high prevalence of overnutrition in adults. Evidence on how diets and F&V intake vary by urban/rural location, season, and socioeconomic characteristics was limited and inconsistent. Two evaluations of garden irrigation programmes assessed impacts on women's dietary diversity and F&V consumption. Additional research is needed to improve our understanding of diets, F&V intake, and diet-related nutritional challenges and how they evolve over time and across different population groups. Understanding these gaps can help identify entry points and targets for interventions to improve diet quality and F&V intake in Benin.

Promoting regional income equity under structural transformation and climate change: An economywide analysis for Senegal

Representation increases women’s influence in climate deliberations: Evidence from community-managed forests in Malawi

Women’s inclusion is now the norm in global and local initiatives to combat climate change. We examine how women’s representation affects climate deliberations using the case of community-managed forests in Malawi. We run a lab-in-the-field experiment randomly varying the gender composition of six-member groups asked to deliberate on policies to combat local overharvesting. We find that any given woman has relatively more influence in group deliberations when women make up a larger share of the group, a change driven by men’s assessments of women’s influence. Women’s presence also shifts the content of deliberations toward prospective solutions for which women have socially recognized expertise (cooking and replanting). Despite these changes, women and men do not prefer different deforestation policies, and women’s presence does not meaningfully affect group decisions. Our work demonstrates how women’s presence shapes climate deliberations but also calls into question claims that women’s inclusion will necessarily affect climate decisions.

Rural land rental markets in developing countries: Can survey design innovations improve land market participation statistics?

A longstanding puzzle in the African land rental market literature is the often-observed discrepancy between the number of tenants (renters-in) and the much smaller number of landlords (renters-out) in survey data. If this discrepancy derives from systematic biases in survey data responses on rental market participation, then the existing body of survey-based empirical work on land rental markets impacts may be fundamentally flawed. To examine this issue, we implemented two survey experiments. First, we tested the hypothesis that some categories of rented land are underreported because enumerators and respondents focus primarily on parcels directly managed or cultivated by the household. A random subset of respondents received a priming nudge reminding them to account for all land, including rented- or sharecropped-in and rented- or sharecropped-out parcels. Second, we tested whether households underreport rented- or sharecropped-out land due to reluctance to disclose activities that may carry social or institutional repercussions, using a double-list experiment to infer true rates of participation. Interestingly, our results indicate a significant underreporting of both renting-in and renting-out land but arising through different mechanisms. The priming nudge increased reports of renting-/sharecropping-in by 4 percentage points (equivalent to 13% of landlords in the sample) but had negligible effects on reported renting-/sharecropping-out. By contrast, the list experiment suggests that the true share of renting-out households is about 15%: much higher than the 3% in parcel-roster responses. These results underscore the need for improved survey methods to accurately observe land rental market participation and evaluate its impact.

Innovation environment and entrepreneurial intentions among undergraduate students in Nigeria: The moderating role of entrepreneurial education

Basis risk, social comparison, perceptions of fairness, and demand for insurance: A field experiment in Ethiopia

Index insurance lowers agricultural risk but covers only covariate risks. Since farmers do not have complete insurance, they may develop mistrust of insurance when experiencing crop losses and not receiving payouts. Although recent innovations in remote sensing enable the provision of more complete insurance including coverage for idiosyncratic risks, such insurance introduces differences in payouts within social networks, which might be considered unfair, introduce jealousy, and depress insurance demand. We conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment with farmers in Ethiopia to examine whether providing complete insurance coverage affects perceived fairness and insurance demand. We also examine effects of informing farmers about neighbors’ payout experiences. We find that such social comparison increases perceived fairness of index insurance. Providing complete crop insurance increases perceived fairness of outcomes and willingness to pay for insurance, without introducing jealousy over neighbors receiving different payouts. These results are concentrated among men and those with little insurance knowledge.

Buyers’ response to third-party quality certification: Theory and evidence from Ethiopian wheat traders

When quality attributes of a product are not directly observable, third-party certification (TPC) enables buyers to distinguish between quality levels and reward sellers accordingly. We study the adoption of TPC by traders in smallholder-based agricultural value chains in low-income countries, where traders aggregate products from many small-scale producers before selling in bulk to downstream processors. In this context, the introduction of TPC services has oftentimes failed. We develop a theoretical model identifying how different market conditions affect traders’ choice to purchase certified output from farmers. Next, using a novel lab-in-the-field experiment with Ethiopian wheat traders, we examine the model’s predictions. Traders’ willingness to specialize in certified output increases with the share of certified wheat in the market, and this effect is stronger in larger markets. However, we find that traders do not optimally respond to variation in the quality of uncertified wheat in the market. We also analyze conditions where traders deviate from optimal behavior and discuss implications for research and policy making to promote TPC in smallholder-based value-chains.

JEL Codes: Q13; D22; O13; C93

The economic costs of bribes and road harassment by officials in ECOWAS

War and resilience: The multifaceted impacts of Sudan’s conflict and pathways to recovery

The synopsis is being made available in advance of an anticipated 2026 launch of the full book.

Dietary intake and nutrient adequacies among women of reproductive age in northern Tanzania: A cross-sectional study

Background
Dietary inadequacies among women of reproductive age (WRA) increase malnutrition and disease risk.

Objectives
We characterized food group and nutrient inadequacies among WRA in rural Tanzania.

Methods
Baseline data (collected October 2023–January 2024) from a cluster-randomized controlled trial in Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions were analyzed. Dietary intake among WRA (n = 2594) was assessed using a 24-h dietary recall with the OpenDRS approach. This was repeated in a subsample (n = 520, 20%) to adjust for day-to-day variations in individual intake. The National Cancer Institute method was employed to estimate usual energy and nutrient intakes. Micronutrient adequacy was defined as intake greater than or equal to the harmonized average requirements (H-ARs). The mean probability of adequacy (MPA) was calculated as the average adequacy across 11 micronutrients.

Results
On average, women were 38.3 ± 6.2 y old; 19% were lactating, and 4% were pregnant. The mean daily energy intake was 2415 kcal/d [95% confidence interval (CI): 1937, 2895], with carbohydrates contributing 62% to daily energy intake. The mean intake of fruit and vegetables (F&V) was 279 g/d (95% CI: 201, 365), of which fruit was 35 g/d (95% CI: 2, 118) and vegetables 245 g/d (95% CI: 168, 328). Staples contributed half of the daily energy intake. About 1% of participants met calcium and vitamin B12 requirements, whereas 42%, 49%, 68%, and 72% met adequacy for vitamin C, folate, zinc, and iron, respectively. Most women met the H-ARs for riboflavin, niacin, thiamine, vitamin B6, and vitamin A. MPA was 65 (±2.3% standard error), with vegetables, pulses, animal-source foods (ASF), and staples being key micronutrient sources.

Conclusions
Substantial nutrient inadequacies exist among WRA in rural Northern Tanzania due to high cereal intake and low intake of F&V and ASF. Addressing these gaps requires targeted interventions, improved dietary diversity, increased intake of F&V and ASF, and enhanced food security through local production and social safety nets.

Effect of combining lower- and higher-value monthly cash transfers with nutrition-sensitive agriculture, male engagement and psychosocial intervention on maternal depressive symptoms in rural Malawi: A secondary analysis of a cluster-randomised controlled trial

Maternal depression affects one in five women in Malawi. Integrated interventions simultaneously addressing multiple risks are a promising strategy to improve mental health. This study evaluated the impact of a nutrition-sensitive social behaviour change (SBC) intervention (agriculture and livelihoods, male engagement and Caring for the Caregiver) with or without cash transfers on maternal perinatal depression during the lean season in rural Malawi. A midline survey for a cluster-randomised controlled trial was conducted, where 156 clusters were randomly assigned to four arms (39 clusters/arm): (1) standard of care (SoC), (2) SBC, (3) SBC+low cash (US$17 per month) and (4) SBC+high cash (US$43 per month). Pregnant women and mothers of children <2 years of age (n=2677) were enrolled at baseline (May–June 2022). A subsample of 1303 women was followed-up at midline (November–December 2023). Maternal perinatal depression was assessed using the Self-Reporting Questionnaire with a score of ≥8 indicating symptoms consistent with depression. Intervention effects were estimated using linear mixed effects models. At midline, SBC+high cash reduced depression scores relative to SoC (mean difference −1.13 (95% CI −1.96 to –0.31)) but had no impact on the proportion of women with depressive symptoms. Relative to SoC, SBC+low cash and SBC alone had no impact on depression scores or the proportion of women with depressive symptoms. Relative to SBC alone, adding cash to SBC reduced depression scores and the proportion of women with depressive symptoms regardless of the size of the cash transfer. Cash transfers integrated with SBC can benefit maternal perinatal mental health in rural Malawi during the lean season.

Digital health interventions in strengthening primary healthcare systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from Ethiopia, Ghana, and Zimbabwe

Digital Health Interventions (DHIs) refer to discrete technological functionalities designed to achieve specific objectives in addressing health system challenges. These interventions are considered tools for strengthening health systems, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This study consolidates findings from Ethiopia, Ghana, and Zimbabwe, examining how three distinct digital health applications with varying intervention components implemented in primary healthcare settings contribute to health system strengthening. The interventions analyzed include Ethiopia’s District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2), Ghana’s District Health Information Management System (DHIMS) and the Lightwave Health Information Management System (LHIMS), and Zimbabwe’s Impilo Electronic Health Record (E-HR) system. In Ethiopia, DHIS2 enhanced health system accountability and data quality by streamlining district-level data aggregation, reporting, and performance monitoring. This led to more informed decision-making and improved resource distribution. In Ghana, DHIMSs functions as a public health-level DHI, facilitating national data-driven performance monitoring, while LHIMS operates at the patient level, supporting patient tracking and management, improving patient workflows and resource tracking. However, a lack of interoperability between these two systems has led to data duplication challenges. Zimbabwe’s Impilo E-HR, a patient-level DHI, has streamlined clinical workflows, improved information sharing, and enhanced decision-making at the point of care. Despite these successes, challenges persist across the three contexts: infrastructure limitations, high staff turnover, and insufficient user technical capacity. Interoperability issues, particularly in Ghana and Ethiopia, hinder seamless data exchange, while sustainability concerns such as funding gaps and inadequate government support undermine the systems’ full potential. The study findings demonstrate that investments in DHIs in primary healthcare may not result in health systems strengthening without addressing baseline conditions for their implementation and sustainability.

The effect of using indigenous and scientific forecasts on arable farmers’ crop yields: Evidence from Rwenzori region, western Uganda

What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2025?

The ongoing conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has triggered severe economic contractions, exacerbating poverty and unemployment while disrupting key sectors of the economy. This study employs an updated economywide database to assess the economic impact of a continued conflict through the end of 2025 under two scenarios of extreme and moderate contractions in the overall GDP. Our findings indicate that by the end of 2025, Sudan’s GDP would decline by 42% under the extreme scenario and 32% under the moderate scenario. The agrifood system would be particularly affected, with its GDP contracting by 33.6% and employment halving under the extreme scenario. Household incomes decline across all quintiles, with rural populations and women experiencing the sharpest losses. The national poverty rate is projected to rise by 19 percentage points under the extreme scenario, further deepening socioeconomic vulnerabilities. To mitigate the widespread adverse impacts of the conflict on the Sudanese economy, policies and interventions should prioritize the restoration of economic productivity, support the agrifood system and employment recovery strategies, and ensure that social protection measures are accessible to all households facing increased deprivation.

Capacity development needs and roadmap

This report integrates an assessment of institutional readiness for Earth observation (EO)-based crop monitoring in Mozambique with a roadmap for sustaining and scaling an EO and digital workflow for agricultural statistics. The aim is to:
Baseline current capacity by systematically evaluating the institutional readiness and willingness within key government organizations to adopt and sustain EO-based systems.
Identify gaps and risks by pinpointing specific challenges, from technical shortages to policy misalignments, that could prevent the sustained adoption of EO technology beyond a project’s life cycle.
Document actions to maintain or raise the institutional readiness level to ensure the project’s desired impact is feasible.

The narrative focuses on what would be required to move from project demonstration to routine production and use, with the Ministério da Agricultura, Ambiente e Pescas (MAAP, formerly the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, MADER) and the Regional Centre of Excellence in Agrifood Systems and Nutrition (CE-AFSN) at Universidade Eduardo Mondlane (UEM, formerly the Centro de Estudo de Políticas e Programas Agroalimentares, CEPPAG) as the main national counterparts and with due recognition of the role of the Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE).

The readiness assessment highlights that Mozambique has strong potential for EO-enabled agricultural data, but that this potential is constrained by fragmented technical capacity, limited government resourcing for software and computing, a reliance on short-term projects and external consultants, and weak institutional arrangements for data ownership, openness, and inter-agency collaboration. It also identifies governance risks created by outdated foundational baselines that continue to shape policy and sampling design.

The roadmap therefore centres on a staged transition. In the near term, priority lies in formalising mandates, custodianship, documentation, and integration pathways with existing survey and census processes. In the medium term, priority lies in building repeatable operational capability and reducing dependence on a small number of individuals. In the longer term, priority lies in embedding stewardship and financing, updating national baselines on a defined cycle, and using the donor-led Development Partners Group for Agriculture and Rural Development (AgRED) group as a coordination mechanism to align partner support and reduce duplication.

Assessing the development impacts of bio-innovations: The case of genetically modified maize and cassava in Tanzania

Youth in relation to agroecology: practices, promises, and perceptions in five countries

In the context of rising youth populations in many low- and middle-income countries, coupled with high youth unemployment and aging farmer populations, this paper asks in what ways agroecology, as a sustainable alternative to the conventional agricultural practices and paradigm, attracts youth to farming and rural-based livelihoods. We draw on empirical data from semi-structured interviews and photovoice conducted with young women and men in five countries: Kenya, India, Peru, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe. In our discussion, we highlight which dimensions and aspects of agroecology resonate with youth and why.

Moving the technology frontiers in African agrifood systems: An analytical framework

The transformation of African agrifood systems stands as one of the most urgent and complex development challenges of the 21st century. With over 60 percent of the continent’s population relying on agriculture for their livelihoods, the sector holds tremendous potential to serve as a catalyst for broad-based economic growth, poverty alleviation, and food and nutrition security. This potential, however, remains largely untapped. Agricultural productivity across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continues to stagnate; despite decades of reform efforts and policy commitments, it lags significantly behind other regions of the world (Ulimwengu et al. 2025).

Moving the technology frontiers in African agrifood systems: Lessons from Latin America

Africa’s agrifood systems face a complex set of structural challenges. Low productivity, high vulnerability to climate shocks, fragmented markets, and weak integration into global value chains continue to constrain development. Yet these challenges coexist with significant opportunities. The region’s demographic profile—with more than 50 percent of the population under the age of 25 years—and a projected population growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2025 offer the potential for a demographic dividend that could help drive transformation in agri-food systems.

Advancing mechanization in African agrifood systems: Unlocking productivity and resilience

This chapter examines the role of mechanization in transforming African agrifood systems within the broader discourse on technological change, structural transformation, and sustainable development. The motivation is to address the persistent challenges of low productivity, rural poverty, labor shortages, and vulnerability to climate change that continue to constrain the agricultural sector across the continent.

Evaluating large-scale government investments in fertilizer adoption: The Ethiopian experience

We evaluate the impact of a large Government of Ethiopia intervention to raise fertilizer supply by establishing five fertilizer blending facilities supplying fertilizers tailored to local soil nutrient profiles. We rely on the phased geographic rollout of blending facility establishment to identify the causal effect on fertilizer use, application rates, crop yields, gross crop revenue, and household consumption. Combining effects of multiple treatment periods, each estimated using a doubly robust difference-in-difference model, we find that the blending facilities increased the probability that farmers adopt the new blended fertilizers by 22 percentage points and increased application rates by 17 kg/ha (baseline adoption was zero). The facilities mostly induced farmers who previously used DAP to switch to NPS, and we find large decreases in DAP adoption (by 22 percentage points, 47% of the control group base mean) and application rates (16 kg/ha, 52% of the control group base mean) yet no impact on overall fertilizer adoption or application rates. Though the new blended fertilizers were expected to perform better, there is no evidence they improved crop yields, crop gross revenue, or household consumption. The effect of the intervention was more pronounced (with larger increases in NPS use and larger decreases in DAP use) for farms located near demonstration plots, which the Government used to train farmers about the agronomic response to the new fertilizers. We confirm results using three large-scale longitudinal datasets and show that they are robust to choices of specification, treatment definition, and inference assumptions.

JEL classification: O12, O13, Q16, Q18

Understanding the evidence gaps: Diets and fruit and vegetable intake across five diverse low- and middle-income countries

Poor dietary quality, particularly inadequate fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake, remains a significant public health challenge globally. This article synthesizes findings from scoping reviews examining diet and F&V intake, and interventions to increase F&V consumption among population groups in five countries: Benin, Fiji, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Tanzania. Our analysis confirms previous findings of inadequate F&V intake across all five countries, with most adults consuming well below the WHO recommendations of 400 g per day. Across the five countries, the identified scientific evidence is limited due to heterogeneous dietary assessment methods, limited coverage of population groups in national surveys and smaller studies, and limited data from rigorous evaluations of interventions aiming to increase F&V intake. Although all five countries have developed food-based dietary guidelines promoting F&V intake, research on their implementation and effectiveness remains limited. To build evidence for effective programmes and policies to improve both quantity and diversity of F&V intake, we identify three priority areas for future research: standardizing dietary assessment methods for use in surveys and evaluations, understanding context-specific drivers and determinants of F&V intake and strengthening intervention research in low-resource settings.

Effects of home production for home consumption on semi-subsistence economies

Exploring relationship pathways to prevent intimate partner violence among young women in Malawi

International estimates of intimate partner violence (IPV) among adolescents and young women are high, indicating the need to address IPV prevention early in life. Structural economic interventions, such as household cash transfer programmes, have the potential to improve the wellbeing of youth who are not the direct recipients of the transfers themselves. However, few studies have addressed this topic in terms of youth romantic and/or sexual relationships. We conducted 39 in-depth interviews with young women aged 19-29 years in households participating in the Government of Malawi’s Social Cash Transfer Programme (SCTP) to examine relationship formation, IPV triggers and experiences, and help-seeking behaviours. We found that young women did not directly attribute SCTP effects to their intimate relationships or IPV experiences. Threats to masculinity and transgressions of women’s gender norms were key triggers of IPV, but specific triggers were linked to specific types of IPV. Furthermore, women sought help for non-IPV concerns more than IPV-related issues. Our results reveal there is a need to strengthen cash transfer programmes and layer them with tailored interventions for adolescents and young women in participant households to improve relationships and prevent IPV early in life.

Modeling crop-livestock interactions in semi-subsistence economies

Climate and weather shocks pose significant threats to crop and livestock systems, leading to economic losses and humanitarian crises. Utilizing a modeling framework that innovatively integrates the crop and livestock production systems in semi-subsistence economies, this study examines the interactions and dynamic adjustments within these systems following weather shocks, using Ethiopia as a case study. We also evaluate the effectiveness of various adaptation strategies in sustaining farm incomes, food security, and welfare. Results show unique effects on the crop and livestock sectors resulting from a joint shock on the two systems. While food crops experience a strong and immediate growth effect (12.4%) that fades quickly, the livestock sector faces the full impact of the shock a year later (13.7%), with the effect persisting to some degree. We also find diverging economic and livestock system adjustment trajectories from separate shocks to the crop and livestock systems. Further, the intervention options analyzed show contrasting impacts on various outcome indicators, with only the resilient crop intervention causing sector-indifferent impacts. Our findings emphasize the importance of proactive measures to enhance the resilience of crop-livestock systems, with implications for policy and practice aimed at safeguarding food security and livelihoods in semi-subsistence economies.

JEL Classification: C68, Q18, Q54, I32, O55

Associations between exposure to nutrition, WASH interventions and children’s academic performance in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Poor nutrition and inadequate WASH (water, sanitation, and hygiene) practices significantly impact children’s health, nutrition, and cognitive development, especially in low-income settings. These factors further aggravate the incidence of undernutrition, weaken the immune system, increase susceptibility to illnesses and reduce cognitive performance. Evidence on the effectiveness of existing WASH interventions is needed.

Objective

This review evaluated the effectiveness of nutritional and WASH interventions on the academic performance of children in Ethiopia.

Methods

A systematic search of Cochrane, DOAJ, Google Scholar, and PubMed (2010–2024) was conducted using MeSH terms and keywords related to WASH. Two independent reviewers screened studies and extracted data. Eligible studies included cross-sectional and cohort studies on Ethiopian schoolchildren with quantifiable academic outcomes. The JBI SUMARI was used to assess bias, and the GRADE approach was used to evaluate evidence quality. The meta-analysis used a random-effects model in Stata and reported pooled RRs with 95% CIs. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses examined moderators such as study design, intervention type, and sample size.

Results

A total of 19 studies, 16 cross-sectional (n= 16) and three prospective (n= 3) cohort studies with a total of 9034 participants, were included. The random effects model revealed a significant improvement in academic performance among students receiving both nutrition and WASH, with a pooled large positive effect size of 2.05 (95% CI: 1.26, 2.28; I2=). In the subgroup meta-analysis, the effect of the intervention was more positive among those who skipped breakfast (3.47, 95% CI: 0.47, 6.47), chronic iodine deficiency (4.49, 95% CI: 4.08, 4.90), food insecurity (2.810, 95% CI: 1.281, 4.339), and underweight (0.61, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.75).

Conclusion

Despite moderate variability and some risk of bias, the evidence supports the integration of comprehensive nutrition and WASH programs into school health initiatives. Future research should focus on long-term effects and cost-effectiveness.

Vouchers to increase fruit affordability in Nigeria and Vietnam

Although fruits are an important part of healthy diets, they are relatively expensive, so most individuals consume less than recommended. We use a randomized control trial to study a voucher program designed to improve the affordability of fruits in peri-urban and urban settings in Vietnam and Nigeria, and analyze whether vouchers can increase fruit consumption. The trial took place in 2021 among 601 households in Vietnam and 611 households in Nigeria. Vouchers were distributed between March and July in Vietnam and between June and November in Nigeria. In both contexts, a large majority of consumers who received vouchers used them. Following project conclusion, we find suggestive evidence of sustained increased fruit consumption only in Vietnam. In Nigeria, vouchers increased consumption of certain fruit categories during program implementation, but we find no evidence of sustained impacts. Fruit consumption is higher across the board in Vietnam, and the sample is wealthier overall, suggesting fruit affordability may not be a binding constraint for consumption. In Nigeria, the increase in consumption during the program along with a post-project decline suggest a lack of household resources to sustain consumption once the project concluded. The results suggest vouchers can improve consumption of healthy foods like fruits, but other actions are needed to make them more affordable in the longer term.

Armed conflict and climate-induced weather disruptions in agricultural input use: Evidence From Ethiopia

Unpacking the effects of conflict on fertilizer use and maize yields: Empirical evidence From Nigeria

Conventional recommendations emphasize increasing the use of inorganic fertilizer to enhance maize yields in African countries south of the Sahara, but it is not clear how smallholders’ exposure to violent conflicts affect demand, yield responses, and the profitability of fertilizers. Our study tackles this question. We analyze how maize yield responds to fertilizer use and assess the profitability of fertilizer use in conflict-affected settings. We then investigate how conflict impacts the profitability of fertilizer, given that armed conflicts are likely to increase input costs, logistical difficulties, and market uncertainties. Our study reveals that yield responses to nitrogen are very low in Nigeria. We also show that exposure to conflict reduces input use rates and decreases the marginal physical productivity of nitrogen in maize production, making investment in fertilizer less profitable. Recognizing this effect of conflict on input use and maize yield response is crucial for targeting and resource allocation decisions among smallholders in similar conflict-affected regions. Moreover, the effect of conflict highlights how external factors, beyond the scope of agronomic practices, influence the economic incentives for fertilizer application and the resulting yield outcomes.

Food processing and nutrition in Africa: Improving diets under the Kampala Declaration

Africa’s food systems are undergoing rapid transformation, yet they remain burdened by a dual nutrition crisis: widespread undernutrition alongside rising obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Food processing stands at the intersection of this challenge—offering both risks and opportunities. This policy brief argues that when guided by nutrition-sensitive strategies, food processing can be harnessed to improve dietary quality, enhance food safety, reduce postharvest losses, and create economic opportunities, particularly for women- and youth-led enterprises. However, the proliferation of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) threatens to worsen public health outcomes unless appropriate regulation and consumer education accompany industrial growth. Drawing on evidence from the Malabo Montpellier Panel’s 2024 VALUE-UP report and innovative case studies across Africa, the brief recommends a multi-pronged approach: supporting fortified and minimally processed foods, strengthening small and medium-sized processing enterprises, advancing food safety systems, and investing in public-private partnerships for nutrition-focused innovation. Linking agrifood processing to better nutrition outcomes is essential to achieving the goals of the Kampala Declaration and the CAADP Strategy (2026–2035).

Imperfect competition and asymmetric welfare effects of global price and productivity shocks: a CGE model analysis for Senegal

This article investigates the asymmetric effects of global price and productivity shocks on welfare in the context of imperfect competition. The primary objective is to understand how market concentration affects the transmission of economic shocks and their impacts on various households. A CGE model, calibrated on a 2014 social accounting matrix for Senegal, is used. The model features a trading sector operating under a Cournot oligopoly with increasing returns to scale. Two scenarios are simulated: a 15% increase in global import prices and a 10% increase in agricultural productivity, each considering different levels of market concentration. The findings reveal that higher global import prices reduce household well-being, a situation exacerbated by low market competition. In contrast, agricultural productivity gains enhance well-being, with these benefits amplified by greater competition. However, the wealthiest households in Dakar benefit from low competition due to their positions in oligopolistic companies. To maximize household well-being, economic policies should focus on strengthening market competition, particularly in the trading sector. Actions such as reducing entry barriers for new businesses and regulating anti-competitive practices can help mitigate the adverse effects of global price increases and amplify the benefits of agricultural productivity gains.

Understanding spatial heterogeneity of hidden hunger in Senegal

Using household consumption data collected in 2017/18, this paper analyzes patterns of urban and rural food consumption in Senegal. We adopt two methodological approaches: an in-depth (spatial) profiling of current diets and corresponding nutrient intakes and an application of the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS). Our findings indicate that Senegal is a typical case of micronutrient deficiency, especially regarding calcium, iron, and vitamin B12. Due to their higher income status and better food access, urban dwellers on average have a more diversified diet with higher nutrient intakes compared to their rural counterparts, especially regarding calcium, vitamin B12, and vitamin A. While the country’s food system in general is unable to assure a nutritious diet for all, the most remote rural departments in Senegal, such as Saraya and Podor, display the highest nutrient deficiencies and therefore should be targeted with priority. Apart from geographical targeting and given their higher responsiveness to price and income changes, policies based on food pricing and income transfers should be implemented to ensure a minimal nutrient intake among the most food-insecure households. These policies could be further complemented with behavioral change campaigns to promote an alternative set of nutrient-rich and cost-effective food items.

Rural livelihoods under prolonged conflict: Evidence from a panel household survey in Sudan

This report presents evidence from the Sudan Rural Household Survey of 2023 and 2024, a two-wave panel survey that assesses how rural households are navigating prolonged conflict. By tracking the same households over time, the survey provides longitudinal insights into livelihoods, food security, access to markets and productive resources, and exposure to shocks across an insecure and rapidly evolving context. The findings from the survey data analysis point to an uneven pattern of economic adjustment by households rather than sustained recovery. Rural households are actively adapting through changes in livelihood strategies, income diversification, and increased participation of household members in income-generating activities. Compared to 2023, fewer households reported in 2024 having no employment. Engagement in salaried work and agriculture also rose. Despite these shifts, income losses remain widespread. Only a small share of households reported improved earnings in 2024, indicating that adaptation is largely driven by necessity rather than durable recovery. Food consumption outcomes improved markedly between survey waves, with substantial declines in the share of households in 2024 reporting poor or borderline diets. At the same time, experience-based measures show that food insecurity remains pervasive, with more than half of rural households facing moderate or severe food insecurity. There has been little change in the prevalence of severe food insecurity. The continuing food insecurity challenges underscore the fragility of recent gains and the continued vulnerability of many households.

Climate-smart agriculture and development practices in Egypt: Report on a policy seminar event

This policy note summarizes presentations and discussion shared during the workshop held in Cairo on May 25th 2025, as part of the Bridging Evidence and Policy (BEP) seminar series, a collaborative initiative by the Egyptian Food Bank (EFB), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and the Sawiris Foundation for Social Development (SFSD) which brings together researchers, policymakers, and development practitioners.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: November 2025

Sudan’s markets in November 2025 showed continued, albeit uneven, stabilization. Prices of most essential commodities remained broadly stable, supported by seasonal harvest effects and improved availability. Wheat prices increased modestly due to slightly lower availability, while sorghum prices remained low and stable. Prices of lentils and rice were largely unchanged, pigeon pea prices declined, and vegetable prices showed mixed trends with improvements in onion availability and quality. Oilseeds, sugar, cooking oil, and fava bean prices were generally stable or declining, despite persistent inter-state disparities. Meat prices continued to rise for lamb and beef, while chicken prices stabilized and milk prices declined.

Fuel prices stabilized following earlier volatility, with improved availability in regular markets, though parallel market prices remained high. Fertilizer prices were stable, but perceived availability declined. Exchange rate pressures persisted, marked by a widening gap between official and parallel rates. Market functioning improved, with fewer merchants reporting supply chain, financial, and liquidity constraints, and minimal challenges related to storage, power, labor, and market safety. Profitability stabilized, tax and fee payments increased further, and most merchants expect to maintain current trading levels, signaling cautious but stable market outlooks.

Measuring norms and beliefs about gender-based violence among adolescent girls and young women in rural Senegal: Psychometric validation in a novel population and setting

Intimate partner violence (IPV) and non-partner sexual violence (NPSV) are forms of gender-based violence (GBV) and contribute to a range of poor mental and physical health outcomes (Beydoun et al., 2012; Dillon et al., 2013; Flor et al., 2025). Among ever-partnered women aged 15 and older in the Africa region, 33% report physical and/or sexual IPV in their lifetime and 19% in the past year (Sardinha et al., 2022). In addition, the lifetime prevalence of NPSV among woman aged 15 to 49 years is 6% in sub-Saharan Africa (Sardinha et al., 2024). Norms (i.e., the societal expectations and rules that dictate acceptable behavior in a given context) that consider GBV acceptable in its various forms perpetuate GBV by reinforcing its acceptability. Among interventions that aim to reduce the prevalence of GBV, many aim to do so, at least in part, by changing both norms and beliefs about GBV (Leight et al., 2023; Ullman et al., 2025). Validated scales for measuring these outcomes are limited, but important for understanding factors that contribute to changes in norms and beliefs.

Intrahousehold preferences for humanitarian assistance—Who prefers what: Evidence from internally displaced households in Sudan

Understanding the preferences of beneficiaries for what form of humanitarian aid they receive is critical for improving the effectiveness of such aid in conflict-affected settings that are characterized by rapidly changing markets and information asymmetries. This paper examines intrahousehold differences in preferences for in-kind, cash, and hybrid assistance among internally displaced households in Sudan, with particular attention to gender, decision-making power, and agency differences. While cash remains the most preferred modality, about half of the respondents reported favoring in-kind or hybrid assistance options. On average, women report a 7-percentage point higher preference for in-kind transfers than men, but with some variation across states. Preferences are strongly shaped by intrahousehold decision-making—spouses, particularly women, who control decisions over the use of aid are more likely to prefer cash, while those with less agency in such decisions favor in-kind assistance. We also find suggestive evidence that limited market access and self-control constraints are associated with a higher preference for in-kind transfers. These findings highlight the importance of agency and intrahousehold dynamics in shaping aid modality preferences and offer practical insights for designing more equitable humanitarian and social protection interventions in contexts with significant population displacement.

Step by step to higher yields? Adoption and impacts of a sequenced training approach for climate-smart coffee production in Uganda

Climate change further exacerbates sustainability challenges in coffee cultivation. Addressing these requires effective delivery mechanisms for sustainable farming practices, particularly in smallholder contexts. We assess a novel public-private extension approach in Uganda, called Stepwise, comprising a sequence of climate-smart and good agricultural practices in four incremental steps. Using a mixed-method approach, an index that captures adoption intensity rather than binary uptake, and survey data from 915 Robusta and Arabica coffee farmers, we find adoption levels around 46% and relatively uniform amongst treated, spillover and comparison farmers. Regional variations suggest differing benefits across coffee varieties. Qualitative findings identify barriers to adoption, including financial and labour constraints, suboptimal training delivery, and input and output market imperfections. Despite relatively low uptake, adoption of more than half of the Stepwise practices is associated with substantial gains: inverse probability weighted regression adjustment reveals a 23% increase in yield and a 32% increase in revenue. Our findings add to the adoption literature, which often highlights limited uptake, and have important policy implications. Strengthening producer organizations, delivering targeted training but also innovative solutions for access to inputs and fair pricing, hold considerable potential to increase the adoption of climate-smart practices, particularly among resource-constrained farmers.

Women’s empowerment and conflict in Burkina Faso: Learning from a randomized trial and non-random conflict

Armed conflict has myriad negative consequences on the wellbeing of women and men, and its non-random nature makes it difficult to study its impacts. We examine the changes in empowerment during the period of 2017-2020 in western Burkina Faso as armed conflict moved closer. We combined data from the randomized-controlled trial of Soutenir l’Exploitation Familiale pour Lancer l’Elevage des Volailles et Valoriser l’Economie Rural (SELEVER) a gender- and nutrition-sensitive poultry production intervention, which collected the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index with geospatial- and date-specific data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project database. To evaluate the effect of conflict on empowerment, we estimated a continuous difference-in-difference model, separately for women and men, across multiple empowerment indicators, in which the primary explanatory variable describes the change in distance to conflict during this time period. Then, to determine if the SELEVER program had a protective effect when there was increased proximity to conflict, we estimated these models separately for the treatment and control groups and compare the difference in the coefficients. As conflict encroached, there was a shift in intrahousehold decision making that suggests less coordination between spouses and fewer decisions made jointly, along with a greater acceptance of intimate partner violence among women. We also found increases in other outcomes, such as men’s group membership, and women’s and men’s access to credit. These changes may be attributable to how communities responded and how humanitarian aid was delivered. We found that the SELEVER program had a protective effect on men’s work balance and the amount of time that both women and men spent working. Notably, however, women spent more time on childcare activities as conflict become closer.

Replication Data for Assessing Multicountry Programs Through a Reach, Benefit, Empower, Transform Lens

This dataset accompanies Quisumbing et al. (2023), Assessing multicountry programs through a Reach, Benefit, Empower, Transform lens
(Global Food Security, 37, 100685). It contains the final cleaned data and do-files used to reproduce the studys analyses of the JP RWEE program in Ethiopia, Niger, Nepal, and Kyrgyzstan.

The surveys measure womens empowerment outcomes using pro-WEAI indicators, which apply stricter adequacy cut-offs than A-WEAI and extend beyond agriculture to other livelihood activities. The dataset retains the A-WEAI structure and weights to compute empowerment scores, empowerment status, and intrahousehold inequality measures.

Data include two survey rounds in Ethiopia (baseline Dec 2016Jan 2017; endline FebMar 2019; 750 households, 723 panel cases) and Niger (baseline FebMar 2016; endline OctNov 2020; 580 households at baseline with replacement sampling for attrition), and one round each in Nepal (JanFeb 2021; 1,300 households and Kyrgyzstan (JanFeb 2021; 1,946 households. Each country sample includes a comparison group constructed using methods tailored to the local context. Because data collection was undertaken by external partners, IFPRI holds only the cleaned datasets and code used for the analyses.

Replication Data for “Rural Credit, Food Security, and Resilience: An Empirical Evaluation from Kenya”

This dataset contains replication data and code for the study “Rural Credit, Food Security, and Resilience: An Empirical Evaluation from Kenya.” The study draws on panel data from three rounds of household surveys conducted between 2017 and 2020 in Machakos County, Kenya, as part of a randomized controlled trial evaluating the impact of two credit productsRisk Contingent Credit (RCC) and standard Traditional Credit (TC). A total of 1,053 households were evenly randomized into RCC, TC, and control groups.

Surveys were administered using structured, pretested questionnaires. The baseline and midline surveys were conducted through face-to-face interviews, while the endline surveydelayed due to the COVID-19 pandemicwas conducted via phone interviews. All survey waves were implemented electronically using computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) tools.

Each survey wave included detailed modules on household demographics, food consumption and expenditures, access to and use of financial services, credit constraints, and experiences of shocks and coping mechanisms.

The RCC intervention featured an index-based insurance component triggered by low rainfall, modeled using historical dekadal rainfall data and Monte Carlo simulations. The study employed a multistage, stratified sampling design targeting rural households across selected sub-counties, in collaboration with Equity Bank and local administrators.

This dataset enables replication of the studys findings and supports further research on the role of credit product design in enhancing food security and resilience among smallholder farmers in semi-arid regions.

Diet & nutrition profile: Tanzania

Poor nutrition, suboptimal diets, and low fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake are key preventable risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) globally. From 2022 to 2024, the CGIAR Research Initiative on Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH) designed and began implementation of an end-to-end approach to increase F&V intake and improve diet quality, nutrition, and health, while also enhancing livelihoods, empowering women and youth, and mitigating environmental impacts. Now under the CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition (BDN), implementation of the FRESH approach continues with the aim of addressing barriers to the desirability, affordability, accessibility, and availability of diverse, safe, and sustainable F&V in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Tanzania is one of the four original priority countries implementing this end-to-end approach to increase intake of F&V and other perishable nutrient-rich foods.

The aim of this brief is to describe the nutrition and diet landscape in Tanzania and highlight relevant programs, strategies and policies.

Building MSME innovative capacity for healthier food supply: Learning from three MSME support mechanisms in Ethiopia

Micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) constitute the vast majority of firms operating in the food system, particularly so in LMICs (Reardon et al., 2021). In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), MSMEs are strongly involved in each stage of the food value chain; at the retail stage, between 70% and 100% of food is sold by MSMEs (Demmler, 2020). Harnessing the potential of food related MSMEs and informal businesses is suggested as one of the pathways to improve the availability, accessibility, and affordability of healthy foods, especially for lower income consumers (IFAD, 2021). This is because MSMEs have the potential to, among others, produce differentiated products that are highly local and traditional; adapt to high transaction costs; and innovate and offer complementary services such as inputs, information and logistics to small-scale producers in informal arrangements (Reardon et al., 2021; Liverpool-Tasie et al. 2020). Further, MSMEs are often located closer to the consumer, in villages and street markets, and can facilitate increased consumption of healthy foods while also contributing to the reduction of food loss and waste by engaging in food processing and other activities (Mekonnen et al., 2022). A study in Tanzania found that the proximity of informal vegetable vendors to a household was associated with a higher likelihood of vegetable purchases and lower consumption of carbohydrates (Ambikapathi et al., 2021). Another study in Kenya found strong associations between longer travel times to markets and lower diet quality for both vendors and consumers (Demmler et al., 2025). It is believed that MSMEs, often being close to consumers, can be agents of change for increasing consumption of healthy foods, if they possess sufficient innovative capacity.

Are food policies empowering women? Framework, measurement, and empirical evidence from India and Nigeria

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) emphasize equal participation and empowerment of women in all levels of decisionmaking, yet frameworks and tools to measure and strengthen women’s empowerment in policy spaces remain limited. Focusing on agrifood systems, this paper introduces a framework, metrics, and scoring method to track women’s empowerment in policy processes (WEAGov) and presents findings from pilot applications in India and Nigeria. The pilots draw on novel surveys with more than 200 agrifood organizations and policy experts across the public sector, private sector, civil society, and research communities in both countries. Across both countries, we find that agrifood policy documents incorporate gender priorities on paper but fall short in budgeting, implementation, and evaluation. Prevailing social attitudes and limited awareness of policies, regulations, and legal rights remain major constraints on women’s ability to engage meaningfully in policy processes. Women participate as staff and mid-level managers in agrifood organizations, but their representation at higher decision-making levels are limited. Expert assessments also highlight disconnects between formal roles and the actual influence women can exert over policy decisions. Gender-responsive budgeting processes are absent in Nigeria and weakly-institutionalized in India, where compliance has become procedural rather than transformative. These patterns reveal persistent bottlenecks in translating gender commitments into practice. By systematically tracking barriers and identifying entry points for reform, the WEAGov framework offers governments, researchers, and civil society organizations a practical tool to diagnose gaps in women’s empowerment in agrifood policy processes and to strengthen their inclusiveness and accountability.

See it grow: A randomized evaluation of a digital innovation to improve crop insurance contract design

Insurance has great potential to increase productive investments, but agricultural insurance markets remain thin, in part because asymmetric information limits the viability of indemnity-based contracts. This paper evaluates a digital innovation—picture-based insurance (PBI)—that uses smartphone images of insured crops to indemnify crop damage. Through a cluster randomized trial in seven counties in Kenya, we compare subsidized PBI to subsidized weather index-based insurance (WBI) and to a control group offered unsubsidized WBI. We find that moving from index-based to indemnity-based insurance substantially increases take-up, particularly among women and farmers in drought-prone areas, indicating that innovations in contract design can broaden coverage in inclusive ways. Insurance coverage significantly increases fertilizer use in both treatments, confirming that uninsured risk constrains agricultural investment. However, despite higher take-up, PBI increases total fertilizer use as much as WBI. Using a Heckman selection model to correct for endogenous adoption, we show that this is not only due to incentive effects but also to multidimensional selection: PBI attracts farmers who, in the absence of insurance, would have invested less in fertilizer. After adjusting for this compositional change, differences in fertilizer use per farmer enrolled in WBI and PBI are not statistically significant. We conclude that higher take-up rates of digital indemnity-based insurance may not automatically translate into proportionally larger farm investments, but since increased coverage is concentrated among the relatively more vulnerable, it may contribute to complementary objectives such as inclusivity, equity, and resilience. Contract design and targeting, therefore, remain central to effective insurance product development.

SAA’s extension model: Scaling sustainable farming in Nigeria

In Nigeria, scaling agricultural innovations faces a major enabling environment challenge. This includes weak national extension systems, low extension officers-farmer ratios (1:1,800–1:3,000) and ineffective input-output market linkages, limiting technology adoption, and value addition for smallholders. The Sasakawa Africa Association (SAA) addressed this through its Value-Chain Based Extension (VCBE) Models, including Commodity Association Trader-Trainers and post-harvest centers, fostering public-private partnerships to build capacity, improve group dynamics, and create aggregation hubs. This innovative extension model has mobilized agricultural produce valued at approximately USD 3.9 million and delivered significant impact for smallholder farmers. The approach has doubled maize yields—from traditional levels of 2,438 kg/ha to 4,823 kg/ha—while enhancing incomes for more than 455,200 farmers. These outcomes are strengthening both food security and economic resilience across participating communities.

Bridging gender gaps in political participation: Experimental evidence on group-based trainings from Nigeria

Women’s political participation remains persistently lower than men’s worldwide. While barriers to women’s civic engagement are well documented, there is limited causal evidence on how to effectively close gender gaps in participation. This study evaluates whether a group-based training intervention can enhance women’s engagement in local governance. In a randomized controlled trial across 300 communities in rural southwest Nigeria, we recruited 3,900 politically unaffiliated women into newly formed women’s action committees (WACs). Control WACs received a single civic education training, while treatment WACs received five additional trainings aimed at strengthening women’s collective efficacy over the course of six months. Leveraging baseline (May–July 2023) and endline (January—February 2024) surveys alongside behavioral data from a community grants competition, we find that the intervention significantly increased both the level and quality of women’s political participation. Treated communities also exhibited greater responsiveness by local leaders to women’s needs and priorities. These findings show that group-based interventions can meaningfully and scalably narrow gender gaps in civic participation.

Breadwinner role and economic decision-making: Experimental evidence from Kenya

In several countries and settings, especially in low- and middle-income countries, men are expected to act as primary economic providers for their households, bearing the psychological and social burdens associated with this role. Despite its potential consequences, the effects of the breadwinner role on economic decision-making are understudied, particularly among poor households. This study investigates how gendered breadwinner expectations shape economic behavior in rural Kenya. Using a lab-in-the-field experiment among 400 smallholder farmers in Vihiga County, we test how psychological and social pressures associated with being the breadwinner of the family influence decision-making in both individual work choices and collective decisions. Participants completed a real-effort task choosing either a high-effort, high-reward option or a low-effort, low-reward alternative, followed by a public goods game framed around communal seed bank contributions. Results reveal that the heightened strain of the main breadwinner led male participants to reduce contributions to the communal seed bank by 0.2 standard deviations, while it did not affect their productivity in the real-effort task. These behavioral shifts suggest that the psychological consequences of breadwinner strain can undermine cooperation and the adoption of sustainable agriculture practices. Addressing the pressures of breadwinning can foster both economic resilience and social cohesion.

Impact assessments of gender transformative interventions in Tanzania: Pre-analysis plan

Transforming gender norms improves women’s wellbeing and may help close the agricultural productivity gap, yet evidence on pairing them with agriculture interventions is limited. We will test an innovative approach to developing and delivering gender transformative interventions with cassava producers in Tanzania. Using a cluster-randomized controlled trial, we examine the impact of these gender transformative interventions paired with standard agricultural service, compared to agricultural services alone, on the primary (gender norms, decision making, and women’s leadership) and secondary (agricultural productivity, women’s savings, and women’s access to land) outcomes. Qualitative methods will examine changes in intra-couple dynamics (communication, decision making, and division of labor).

Inflation and diets among poor mothers in Egypt

Global food price increases and widespread inflationary shocks negatively affect poor households’ diets, particularly those of women who are more likely to be food insecure compared to men. This study evaluates the relationship between changes in food prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022 and poor mothers’ diets in Egypt, a country that heavily relies on imports of staple foods and is highly vulnerable to increases in international food prices. We combine food group specific governorate-level consumer price index (CPI) data with data on diets of 2,868 poor mothers in Egypt collected before and after the onset of the war. Additionally, we examine the potential protective effect of Egypt’s large-scale food subsidy program, Tamween, whereby specific foods are sold at subsidized prices at specific retailers. Using two-way fixed effects models, we find that changes in food prices are significantly associated with changes in the composition of mothers’ diets. Mothers were less likely to consume dairy and fish and more likely to consume pulses and sweetened beverages after the war began. Poor mothers decreased consumption of unsubsidized foods, suggesting a protective role of the Egyptian food subsidy program. This paper also provides suggestive evidence that poor mothers from households engaged in agricultural production could be slightly less responsive to changes in food prices compared to mothers from households that do not engage in agricultural production.

Targeting of food aid programs: Evidence from Egypt

In-kind food aid programs remain prominent world-wide. Targeting in these programs is complex due to potential distortions in consumption. This paper advances the literature by moving beyond poverty-based targeting to address nutritional objectives. Using data from a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we apply machine learning (ML) techniques to analyze heterogeneity in impacts across nutritional outcomes, aiming to inform targeting based on observable characteristics. We find that such characteristics significantly predict heterogeneity in treatment effects, though relevant predictors differ by outcome and treatment type. Building on recent literature advocating for balancing of deprivation and expected impact, we show that, in our context, the trade-off between targeting the most impacted versus the most deprived households is limited. Instead, the main challenge is prioritizing among competing nutritional objectives. Our findings indicate that ML methods can inform outcome-specific targeting criteria, though these criteria vary across outcomes and are imperfectly correlated.

Small and medium enterprise development for climate adaptation and an inclusive food system in Egypt

Rural households in many low- and middle-income countries remain highly dependent on agriculture and related value chain activities, making them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. As rising temperatures and increasing climate variability reduce agricultural productivity and income stability, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are increasingly promoted as a path toward rural development and the transformation of the agrifood systems (AFS). Yet, little is known about whether climate change influences rural households’ decision to start an enterprise to diversify or switch their income sources away from agriculture-related activities in order to adapt to weather risks. We address this research gap by drawing from nationally representative data from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey 2023 and estimating a dynamic duration model to explore how heat stress is linked to households’ likelihood to start a (nonfarm) SME. Our findings offer new evidence for climate-responsive rural policy and SME support strategies in vulnerable regions.

The Effects of a Secondary School Scholarship on School Progression and Youth Outcomes: Baseline Survey

This dataset contains baseline survey data from 2,141 youth and their households collected as part of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) titled The Effects of a Secondary School Scholarship on School Progression and Youth Outcomes in rural Ethiopia. The study evaluates whether providing secondary school scholarships to youth from extremely poor households in remote, food-insecure kebeles improves school enrollment and progression and affects a range of non-academic outcomes.

The baseline survey captures pre-intervention information on household demographics, education and schooling status, work and time use, socioeconomic conditions, food security, life skills, future expectations, mental health and psychosocial well-being, and COVID-19-related experiences. These data provide a comprehensive profile of youth and household conditions prior to program implementation and serve as the foundation for subsequent impact evaluation analyses. The dataset is intended to support research on education, youth development, poverty, and social protection and can be used for replication, secondary analysis, and policy-oriented research.

Economic Inclusion Program Cohort 2 in Kenya: Baseline Household Survey

This dataset consists of household-level data collected through a baseline survey conducted between April and May 2024 for the Impact Evaluation of the Economic Inclusion Programme (EIP), Cohort 2, in Kenya. The survey covers 3,251 households across four counties, Kisumu, Makueni, Muranga, and Taita Taveta, and was implemented by the Kenyan survey firm REMIT.

The EIP intervention package comprises four components: (i) monthly consumption support, (ii) asset grants to support income-generating activities, (iii) skills training paired with weekly mentoring, and (iv) the establishment of Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs). The evaluation follows a cluster-randomized controlled trial (cRCT) design, in which villages were randomly assigned to treatment and control groups in a 2:1 ratio, with randomization stratified at the sub-county level.

The baseline household survey captures data on demographics, consumption and income, assets, financial inclusion, enterprise activities, food security, mental health, gender equity, social cohesion, and exposure to social protection programs. These data provide a detailed snapshot of household conditions prior to program implementation and enable rigorous impact evaluation, replication, and secondary research on economic inclusion, social protection, and poverty reduction in Kenya.

Incentives, administrative capture and preference aggregation in community-based targeting

Community-based targeting (CBT), which leverages community leaders to identify eligible beneficiaries, is widely used in social protection programs and development interventions, especially in data-scarce settings. Yet, little is known about how these leaders respond to opportunities for potential resource leakages and elite capture, and whether such behavior is moderated by budget constraints or the level of discretion given to leaders. Similarly, how community leaders involved in CBT aggregate individual preferences into collective decisions remains understudied. We conduct a cluster-randomized experiment in 180 Ethiopian villages to study the effects of incentive structures and discretion on administrative capture—defined as funds retained under the disguise of covering “administrative” costs. Local leaders were tasked with allocating real or hypothetical transfer budgets, with discretion to retain up to 10 percent as “administrative costs”. To uncover decision-making and preference aggregation within CBT committees, we elicited these decisions (proposals to retain a portion of the budget) individually as well as collectively. We find that financial incentives significantly increase administrative (elite) capture, and that capture increases with budget size. Group decisions yield higher appropriation than individual proposals, suggesting implicit collusion rather than prosocial restraint in group-based decisions. Moreover, when real stakes are at play, group outcomes are disproportionately shaped by extreme (outlier) preferences, whereas in hypothetical settings without actual transfers, popular preferences dominate. These findings highlight behavioral mechanisms underlying collective decision-making and administrative capture in CBT, which can inform the design of more accountable CBT systems.

Measuring food fortification coverage in household surveys: Formative research findings from Bangladesh and Ethiopia

Background
Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) is a cost-effective approach used in most countries to address widespread micronutrient deficiencies. Understanding who consumes fortified foods is challenging as these foods are often undetectable by design. The objective of this work was to refine survey items used to measure LSFF coverage for their potential use in routine multitopic household surveys.

Methods
In Bangladesh and Ethiopia, we interviewed shop vendors (n=108), program officers (n=28), and women beneficiaries of safety net programs (n=67). Shop observations assessed availability, type, brand, and fortification labeling for food vehicles (oil, wheat flour, salt, and rice). Key informant interviews were used to understand practices related to food acquisition/use and fortification knowledge. Cognitive interviewing techniques were used to refine questions from the Fortification Assessment Coverage Toolkit (FACT), with follow-up prompts to identify comprehension, retrieval, judgment, and response errors.

Results
Market observations revealed many types and brands of food vehicles, especially of rice in Bangladesh (35 types, 220 brands). Nearly all oil and salt, but not wheat flour in both countries or rice in Bangladesh were labeled as fortified. Program officers and women had limited knowledge about fortified foods. The concept of brand was not well understood, and women often could not remember the brand they last purchased. Modifications to the FACT survey items reduced cognitive errors. A set of four questions can capture household coverage of food vehicle and fortifiable food vehicle use.

Conclusions
Correct phrasing of key concepts as understood by respondents is essential to producing reliable estimates of LSFF coverage. In the absence of cheap, field-friendly technologies to test food samples, and given limited identifiable features of fortified foods, estimating coverage of fortification programs in household surveys remains challenging but worthy of further investigation.