Publications

Can digital financial services improve household coping capacity? Evidence from nationally representative cross-sectional data in Kenya

Digital financial services (DFS) have expanded financial access in Kenya, but their contribution to household coping capacity may differ substantially across product types. This paper examines trends and socioeconomic correlates of DFS adoption and the associations between DFS use and household coping capacity using nationally representative FinAccess surveys from 2019, 2021, and 2024. The analysis combines descriptive statistics and pooled logistic regressions with inverse-probability-weighted-regression adjustment and propensity score matching. We distinguish between mobile banking savings, mobile money savings, mobile banking loans, mobile provider loans, and app-based digital credit. Mobile phone ownership, internet access, education, income, and financial decision-making are important correlates of adoption, though significant gender and regional disparities remain. Digital savings show the broadest and most consistent positive associations with household coping capacity. Mobile banking savings are associated with an increase of 14 percentage points in emergency saving, an increase of 7.5 percentage points in access to emergency funds, and reductions of 4 and 2.7 percentage points in food insecurity and difficulty accessing medical care, respectively. Mobile banking loans provide narrower benefits, mainly for financial planning and emergency liquidity. In contrast, app-based loans are associated with reduced emergency savings and financial endurance. The findings show that the welfare implications of DFS depend critically on product type. Savings-led digital finance can strengthen household preparedness, while short-term app-based credit may increase financial vulnerability.

Unlocking climate finance for Kenya’s women dairy farmers

Key takeaways

-Women dairy farmers in Kenya face growing climate risks but often cannot access the finance needed to adapt and protect their livelihoods.
-A recent gathering brought together farmers, other stakeholders, and finance partners to explore ways to develop digital lending tools and gender-focused finance.
-A proposed climate finance consortium could connect farmers, lenders, cooperatives, and researchers to expand access to suitable climate investments.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: June 2026

This report monitors prices, availability, and market conditions for essential commodities across Sudan in June 2026, covering cereals, pulses, vegetables, animal products, agricultural inputs, fuel, exchange rates, labor markets, and trader perceptions. Commodity prices generally increased during the month, particularly for wheat flour, pulses, vegetables, meat products, cooking oil, sugar, and fuel, while perceived availability declined across most food and input categories, indicating tightening market conditions. Fuel price increases in parallel markets, depreciation of the Sudanese pound, and persistent regional disparities, especially in Darfur and Kordofan states, continued to place pressure on market access and affordability. Surveyed traders reported fewer supply chain, liquidity, and demand-related constraints than in previous months, although challenges remained concentrated in conflict-affected areas such as Khartoum and North Darfur. Despite rising prices and weaker availability, most merchants expected to maintain or expand trading activities over the following one to three months, suggesting cautious optimism about market continuity.
-Abstract generated by Copilot AI 2.2

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: July 2026

This report provides an update on prices, availability, and market conditions for essential commodities across Sudan in July 2026, covering staple foods, vegetables, livestock products, agricultural inputs, fuel, exchange rates, labor markets, and trader perceptions. Prices increased across most commodity groups, including cereals, pulses, vegetables, meat products, sugar, cooking oil, fertilizers, and fuel, while trader-reported availability generally declined, indicating worsening market pressures and tighter supplies. Regional disparities remained pronounced, with Darfur and Kordofan states consistently recording some of the highest food and fuel prices and lower commodity availability. Market actors reported increased supply chain and demand-related challenges compared with June, although financial constraints remained relatively limited and most traders expected to maintain or expand their trading activities in the coming months. The report highlights the combined effects of rising parallel-market exchange rates, increasing input and fuel costs, and declining market availability on food affordability and market performance in Sudan.
-Abstract generated by Copilot AI 2.2

Agricultural recovery and resilience in Sudan: Findings from the THABAT Project baseline survey of farmers

This report presents the findings from a baseline survey of farmers conducted as part of IFPRI’s impact evaluation of a sub-component of the food security component of the THABAT project in Sudan. The report documents farmers’ pre-intervention conditions across agricultural production, input access, climate-smart practices, food security, market conditions, and institutional trust in the three states in which the project is being implemented—Kassala, Northern, and River Nile.

Sudan’s ongoing conflict has severely disrupted agricultural systems, markets, and rural livelihoods. The Sudan Enhancing Community Resilience Project (THABAT) provides resilience-oriented agricultural support that is critical for sustaining food production, protecting livelihoods, and supporting local economic recovery (‘thabat’ in Arabic means ‘stability’ or ‘firmness’). The project is a USD 130 million initiative financed through the Sudan Transition and Recovery Support Trust Fund (STARS) Multi-Donor Trust Fund. This report focuses on Component 2 of the project, which aims to enhance food security through directly providing agricultural production inputs, both goods and services, to farmers.

The baseline survey covered 1,308 beneficiary farmers from 115 farmer organizations across the three project states during the 2025/26 agricultural year. The main findings from the analysis of the survey data include:
• Beneficiary farmers demonstrate relatively strong agricultural production potential despite operating in a fragile and conflict-affected environment.
• Agricultural input support from the THABAT project reached most households, especially climate-adapted improved seeds for wheat, sorghum, and vegetables, and DAP and urea inorganic fertilizers.
• However, adoption of climate-smart and adaptive agricultural practices, beyond the use of climate‑adapted improved seeds and fertilizers, generally remains low.
• The food security indicators of beneficiary farmers are stronger than those seen in broader crisis-affected populations in Sudan. However, food insecurity levels vary substantially across the three project states.
• Farmers continue to face major structural constraints to their economic activities that are related to inflation and currency fluctuations. They also face significant barriers in accessing markets, financial services, and technology, and are subject to substantial conflict-related risks.

How do migrants fare in Africa’s urban labour markets?

Enhancing farmers’ access to neglected crop seeds for healthy diets in a changing climate: six recommendations for policy action

Food insecurity and poor diets undermine human health, livelihoods, and aspirations. Climate change further exacerbates the problem of achieving zero hunger. Promoting the production of a diverse portfolio of nutrient-dense, climate-resilient crops enables food supply for healthy diets in the coming years and decades. Many are underutilized even though they are considered opportunity crops, with an unrealized potential to improve food security and dietary quality amid climate change. Limited access to quality seed for these crops is a major bottleneck in their supply, as the current policy environment does not support farmers in broadening their portfolio with these crops. This paper identifies three key challenges that should be addressed to enable farmers to access quality seed of opportunity crops at scale. These are to make the diversity of opportunity crops (i) a priority for policy (ii) available for evaluation and breeding, and (iii) accessible to farmers, especially women and other disadvantaged groups. Six policy actions are recommended to address these challenges, which, if implemented, are likely to have both short- and long-term impacts in increasing farmers’ access to quality seeds of opportunity crops. Adopting these policy actions will help mainstream opportunity crops into seed systems as part of a broader strategy to diversify food systems from seed to plate.

Beyond infrastructure: Linking multiple-use water services and experiences with household water insecurity in rural Mali

Over the last decade, the international development community has recognized that rural and peri-urban households in lower- and middle-income countries use the same sources of water for both domestic and productive uses. To increase access to these water resources, governments and NGOs introduced the concept of multiple-use water services (MUS). As a proposed development strategy, MUS takes people’s multiple water needs as the starting point for planning and investing in new water services or upgrading existing domestic or productive systems traditionally designed for single uses. While studies have suggested benefits of MUS, such as improved water productivity and economic gains for subsistence farming communities, evidence remains context dependent. The research community has yet to examine the specific influence of MUS on household water insecurity, defined as the inadequate, unreliable, or unaffordable access to water necessary for a healthy life. That is, does MUS reduce experiences with water insecurity at the household scale? To address this critical question, the study examined the correlation between household water insecurity, measured by the Household Water Insecurity Experiences (HWISE) scale, and household use of single water sources for both domestic and productive purposes using data from a survey of 1,082 households in Mali, West Africa. The study finds that households practicing year-round MUS report significantly lower water insecurity than seasonal MUS households. These findings indicate an association, rather than a causal relationship, between sustained MUS practice and lower household water insecurity and suggest that reliable, year-round water availability may underpin both. However, MUS is not a panacea for household water insecurity, and improving household water security will require attention to the reliability, availability, and seasonal stability of water services in addition to support for multiple water uses.

Power, policy, and practice: Political economy perspectives on agroecological transitions

Food systems policy coherence: A ten-country assessment

Policy coherence is widely recognised as essential for achieving food systems transformation, but attempts to assess food systems policy coherence have been limited to date in terms of their scope of topics and geographies and lack of comparable methods. This paper introduces the Food Systems Policy Coherence (FSPC) Diagnostic Tool and uses it to analyse food systems policy coherence across 10 low- and middle-income countries in Africa and Asia through key informant interviews (n = 189) and review of policy documents (n = 808). The FSPC Diagnostic Tool considers two aspects of policy coherence: (1) the structures and mechanisms that may contribute to achieving stronger policy process coherence and (2) coherence between policies from six sectors and ten common food systems goals. Regarding the former, all countries analysed had strong framework documents for cross-sectoral food policy, backed by high-level political commitment, but they tended to be much weaker when it came to capacity for implementation and especially monitoring and accountability. Policy coherence across sectors was generally strong for the goals of climate change adaptation and social protection but weaker for goals of healthy diets for all, adequate wages for food system workers, and climate change mitigation through food systems. Trade policy was the policy area with the greatest incoherence with a diverse range of food systems goals. The results offer the most comprehensive analysis of food systems policy coherence to date. The tool makes a useful contribution to measuring policy coherence and can serve as both a foundation for future research and enhance accountability for achieving coherent policy outcomes.

Strengthening land tenure security and women’s land rights in Kenya: Policy analysis, implementation gaps, and gender-transformative pathways

In Kenya, the legal foundation for land governance was transformed by the country’s 2010 Constitution and reinforced by several subsequent laws that provide important entry points to strengthen women’s land rights. However, gaps in implementation remain significant; titles held by women represent less than 2 percent of all titled land, and women are less likely than men to own agricultural land and be named on title documentation. Evidence shows that women’s tenure security improves when legal recognition is matched with accessible implementation. The community land agenda is equally urgent; community land covers a major share of Kenya’s land area, especially in arid and semi-arid lands, yet the transition from former group ranches to registered community land has been slow. Investments should focus on five mutually reinforcing pathways: 1) strengthening sex-disaggregated land administration data, 2) supporting community land registration and inclusive bylaws, 3) combining legal literacy with paralegal support and alternative justice systems that meet constitutional standards, 4) promoting gender-transformative household and community approaches that shift norms around inheritance, joint titling, and decision-making, and 5) integrating women’s land rights into agricultural productivity, climate resilience, and market systems interventions.

Strengthening land tenure security and women’s land rights in Ethiopia: Policy analysis, implementation gaps, and gender-transformative pathways

Ethiopia’s land rights regime has evolved from an unequal imperial system, through nationalization, to a contemporary federal framework that recognizes secure, inheritable, registrable, and transferable land-use rights for women and men farmers and pastoralists. Ethiopia has undertaken one of Africa’s largest rural land certification reforms over the past three decades, beginning with provision of household certificates and progressing to geospatial mapping of parcels and a digital registry of landholdings. By 2024, an estimated 23 million certificates had been produced. While the certification reforms are a huge achievement, key challenges to transforming recognized rights into usable rights remain, especially for women, pastoral communities, and peri-urban households.  Progress towards gender equality in land rights is real, but uneven. Women are still less likely to have documented ownership compared to men, and they face constraints in controlling farmland, accessing credit, and benefitting from climate finance. Future policies and investments should focus on keeping rights current through registry maintenance, enforceable, gender-equitable, and adaptable to pastoral, peri-urban, and climate-vulnerable contexts.

Strengthening land tenure security and women’s land rights in Nigeria: Policy analysis, implementation gaps, and gender-transformative pathways

Nigeria’s land governance system has not delivered secure, affordable, and inclusive land documentation for most citizens, which is needed for agricultural productivity, food security, housing, climate resilience, peacebuilding, and women’s economic empowerment. Despite wide consensus on the need for land reform, the pluralistic system and the constitutionally entrenched Land Use Act have limited advances. Formal land registration remains limited in Nigeria, with more than 90% of land estimated to be unregistered. Customary, Islamic, and informal institutions continue to govern many land relations, but women and pastoralists frequently face weaker or inadequately documented rights. The lack of systematic gender- and conflict-sensitive recognition and tracking of land and resource rights at the national level contributes to the gender gap and to violent farmer–herder conflicts. A significant opportunity for reform has been opened by national attention to Land4Growth, state-level digitization, experience with systematic land titling and registration (SLTR), Supreme Court rulings on women’s inheritance, and growing evidence on gender-transformative land programming. A high-impact land reform program in Nigeria should invest not only in surveying, digitization, and title issuance, but also address the legal overlap of statutory and customary tenure, the gendered effects of inheritance and marital property norms, practical barriers that reduce women’s land rights, and the rights of pastoral communities.

Resilience of agricultural value-chains in Sudan: Findings from the THABAT Project Survey of Small- and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)

Sudan’s ongoing conflict has severely disrupted agricultural systems, markets, and rural livelihoods. In this context, resilience-oriented agricultural support remains critical for sustaining food production, protecting livelihoods, and supporting local economic recovery. The Sudan Enhancing Community Resilience Project (THABAT) provides resilience-oriented agricultural support that is critical for sustaining food production, protecting livelihoods, and supporting local economic recovery (‘thabat’ in Arabic means ‘stability’ or ‘firmness’). The project is a USD 130 million initiative financed through the Sudan Transition and Recovery Support Trust Fund (STARS) Multi-Donor Trust Fund. This report focuses on the small -and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) sub-component of Component 2 of the project, which aims to improve food security through supporting farmers, SMEs, and consumer cooperatives to enhance value addition in agricultural value chains. This component of the THABAT project is being implemented by the World Food Programme (WFP) through Mercy Corps.

Specifically, this report presents the initial findings from interviews with 100 small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) active in the agrifood sector that have been shortlisted to receive support through a matching grant element of the THABAT project. The surveyed SMEs are quite diverse in the nature of their enterprises—crop production, agricultural input supply, agrifood processing and packaging, storage, transport, and a range of postharvest services. WFP and Mercy Corps identified the SMEs that were included in the survey sample, which comprises both selected and unselected SMEs for the THABAT matching grant. Baseline data from the sample SMEs were collected using computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI).

This baseline report serves as a description of the status quo for SMEs in the THABAT project zone at the start of the project. The findings indicate that SMEs there have relatively good access to basic infrastructure and digital technologies. More than 90 percent report access to electricity, water, and internet services, although electricity reliability remains limited. The operators of the SMEs generally demonstrate strong growth ambitions, with most expecting increases in capital investment, workforce size, and market expansion in the coming year.

This baseline report serves as a description of the status quo for SMEs in the THABAT project zone at the start of the project. The findings indicate that SMEs there have relatively good access to basic infrastructure and digital technologies. More than 90 percent report access to electricity, water, and internet services, although electricity reliability remains limited. The operators of the SMEs generally demonstrate strong growth ambitions, with most expecting increases in capital investment, workforce size, and market expansion in the coming year.

The SMEs operate in a challenging business environment characterized by inflation, market disruptions, supply chain constraints, and recurring shocks. More than 90 percent reported experiencing at least one shock during the previous year, while concerns regarding corruption, governance, and limited access to finance remain widespread. At the same time, these SMEs maintain strong linkages with other actors in the agricultural value chains in which they operate and demonstrate considerable resilience and willingness to invest and grow despite many challenges.

Overall, these initial SME baseline results show the critical roles SMEs are playing in creating value addition in agricultural value chains despite the challenging business environment and inefficiencies in markets in Sudan. These data, along with those to be collected through a planned endline survey of the same SMEs, will enable assessments to be made of the type of impacts the matching grants and associated business development support offered by the THABAT project had on SME performance and resilience.

Transforming Nigeria’s livestock sector: Evidence and policy priorities for sustainable food systems

Nigeria has the largest livestock population in West Africa and the fourth-largest cattle herd in Africa, yet the sector remains, in the words of long-standing diagnoses, a “sleeping giant” (Jega 2025). The livestock sector contributes approximately USD 32 billion, or 5 percent of national GDP, and around 17 percent of agricultural GDP. The livelihoods of 30 million people are directly supported by livestock, including those of over 15 million pastoralists. Roughly 40 percent of the protein consumed by Nigerians is sourced from animals.

Nigeria has the largest livestock population in West Africa and the fourth-largest cattle herd in Africa, yet the sector remains, in the words of long-standing diagnoses, a “sleeping giant” (Jega 2025). The livestock sector contributes approximately USD 32 billion, or 5 percent of national GDP, and around 17 percent of agricultural GDP. The livelihoods of 30 million people are directly supported by livestock, including those of over 15 million pastoralists. Roughly 40 percent of the protein consumed by Nigerians is sourced from animals.

The binding constraints to accelerated growth in Nigeria’s livestock sector are feed systems failure, an endemic and underreported animal disease burden, structural herder–farmer conflict, low genetic potential, the near-absence of processing and cold chain infrastructure, and intensifying climate risk. These interact as reinforcing cycles rather than isolated problems. In this paper that has been prepared to inform the development of a strategic action plan for Nigeria’s livestock sector, we examine the prospects for removing these barriers in order to put the sector on a pathway of sustained growth.

Fortunately, the policy architecture for livestock sector development in Nigeria is now the strongest in the sector’s history. The Federal Ministry of Livestock Development, created in July 2024, anchors the Nigeria Livestock Growth Acceleration Strategy for 2025 to 2035, the first-ever Nigeria Livestock Master Plan, and the Livestock Productivity and Resilience Support investment program. Major financing is being mobilized, including a USD 2.5 billion commitment to invest in livestock processing from JBS S.A., a Brazilian meat processing company, the creation of the Africa Pastoral Markets Development platform with a USD 3 billion private-investment target, and the Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones project. Early progress under these initiatives is visible—by mid-2026, the Ministry had vaccinated 6.2 million livestock in a nationwide anthrax campaign, profiled over 600,000 livestock farmers using electronic tools, validated a National Dairy Policy Implementation Framework, and approved a veterinary reform roadmap to run through 2036.

The principal conclusion we draw from this study is that Nigeria’s livestock sector development challenges are primarily linked to ineffectual implementation rather than poor policy design. The Nigeria Livestock Growth Acceleration Strategy should therefore prioritize implementation architecture—binding federal–state compacts on livestock development actions, foundational data systems that include a completed baseline on Nigeria’s livestock resources and a National Livestock Identification and Traceability System, feed systems development, animal health recapitalization, and putting in place the mechanisms that will convert committed private capital into operational investments in Nigeria’s livestock sector.

Towards sustainable fisheries and aquaculture in Nigeria: Evidence, constraints, and investment priorities

Nigeria is Africa’s largest fish consumer by volume and a leading producer. Fisheries and aquaculture contribute between 3 and 4 percent of national GDP, provide around 40 percent of the animal-source protein consumed by Nigerians, and support the livelihoods of around 12 million artisanal fishers and fish farmers. Women constitute over 60 percent of the sector workforce. However, the sector is locked in a structural supply-demand crisis. Domestic fish production meets only about one-third of annual demand of between 3.2 million and 3.6 million mt. The domestic supply deficit of approximately 2.4 million mt is filled by imports that cost Nigeria over USD 1.0 billion annually.

Domestic fish production has begun to respond to the growing demand for fish in Nigeria. The Federal Department of Fisheries and Aquaculture reports output rising to 1.4 million mt in 2025 from 1.1 million mt in 2024. This increase in production was attributed to improved federal-state coordination, the use of better aquaculture technology, and establishing more sustainable marine farming systems with the support of Nigeria’s development partners.

Nonetheless, the structural deficit in fish supply for Nigerian markets remains large. The constraints hindering growth in Nigeria’s fisheries and aquaculture sector include: A fish-feed cost crisis—feed makes up 60 to 70 percent of aquaculture production costs, The near-absence of cold chains for storing, transporting, and marketing fish, resulting in postharvest losses of up to 40 percent, Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing costs of USD 450 million per year, Fragmented fish fingerling supply systems, Financial exclusion of artisanal fishers, and An outdated governance framework centered on the Sea Fisheries Act of 1992.

Moreover, climate change will acutely affect Nigeria’s fisheries and aquaculture sector. Under high-emission climate-change scenarios, its maximum marine catch potential will fall between 23 and 53 percent by 2050. This makes the scaling up of aquaculture not merely an economic growth option but a structural and nutritional necessity. However, aquaculture will also be adversely affected by a changing climate, with growth in aquaculture in Nigeria expected to decelerate from 11 percent per year between 2010 and 2015 to only 2 percent per year in the 2035 to 2050 period.

The National Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy, 2025–2029, provides the operational framework for the growth of the fisheries and aquaculture sector. Its principal target is to achieve aquaculture output of 1.3 million mt by 2029 while cutting postharvest losses in half.

This paper concludes that any strategic action plan for Nigeria’s fisheries and aquaculture sector must be built around closing the supply deficit through accelerated sectoral growth that is anchored in improved domestic feed and fingerling supply systems, cold chain investment at 12 priority fish landing sites, reforms of the Sea Fisheries Act to address IUU fishing losses, and a dedicated fisheries investment facility to correct the structural financial exclusion of Nigeria’s fisheries and aquaculture sector.

Strategic grain reserves and maize price stabilization in Malawi: What policies are feasible?

Maize price instability remains a major policy challenge in Malawi, where most households depend on maize for both production and consumption. Many farmers sell maize after harvest, when prices are low, only to buy it back during the lean season, when prices are high. This paper examines whether Malawi’s Strategic Grain Reserve, managed by the National Food Reserve Agency, can meaningfully stabilize maize prices. It reviews the sources of maize price volatility, assesses past government interventions—including minimum farmgate prices, trade restrictions, and public grain purchases and sales—and develops a conceptual framework for buffer stock operations. The analysis shows that while a strategic grain reserve can help mitigate the most extreme seasonal price movements, its effectiveness is severely constrained by limited storage capacity, financing and timing challenges, and, in particular, the market-determined import and export parity prices that govern cross-border trade. The paper argues that Malawi should retain its strategic grain reserve but calibrate its price-stabilization mandate to what is operationally feasible, while preserving the reserve’s emergency and safety-net functions.

Aligning the World Bank AgriConnect Initiative with the CAADP Kampala Declaration: A strategic imperative for transforming Africa’s agrifood systems

Over the past two decades, the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) has become Africa’s primary, African-owned framework for agricultural transformation. CAADP provides a coherent framework for agrifood sector planning and implementation, guided by shared goals and anchored in core principles of African ownership, evidence-based planning, inclusive dialogue, and mutual accountability. It has elevated agriculture on the political agenda, guided national and regional investment plans, strengthened policy coordination and stakeholder participation, and established continental mutual accountability through the CAADP Biennial Review. Evidence also links CAADP implementation to improvements in agricultural productivity, agricultural trade, poverty reduction, and nutritional outcomes.

Scaling digital financial services for smallholder farmers in Kenya: A stakeholder consultation on challenges, opportunities, and action pathways

Key takeaways

• The new Tool for Agricultural Risk Assessment (TARA) helps expand access to credit and insurance in Kenya. The AI-based platform aids financial institutions in better assessing risk and serving smallholder farmers.

• A recent workshop focused on efforts to scale TARA. Partners aim to reach 50,000 farmers by 2028. The initiative sets strong inclusion targets for women, youth, and marginalized groups.

• Scaling will require coordinated action. Stakeholders prioritized credit guarantees, farmer awareness, financial literacy, and stronger partnerships.

From agreements to action: Practical tools for strengthening transboundary water cooperation

Key takeaways
Addressing small bottlenecks in managing transboundary water resources is key to realizing the broad goals elaborated in formal agreements.
Rapid assessments help identify realistic solutions. A case in Central Asia found strong day-to-day cooperation but outdated rules, unclear responsibilities, and limited stakeholder engagement.
Inclusive institutions make water governance more resilient. Multistakeholder platforms help build trust, improve decision-making, and support long-term cooperation.

Gender, labor, and output allocation in Nigeria’s aquacultural sector

Aquaculture is an important source of food and income in Nigeria, but evidence on gender differences in labor participation and output allocation remains limited. Using nationally representative microdata from the National Agricultural Sample Survey and weighted ordinary least squares (OLS) and fractional logit models, this study examines whether the gender of the aquacultural manager is associated with labor participation, production, and allocation of output to home consumption and sales. The results show that after controlling for observable characteristics, households managed by women are not less engaged in aquaculture and do not produce less than households managed by men. Instead, gender differences appear in how farms operate and distribute their output. Households managed by women employ a substantially higher share of women’s labor and allocate approximately 4 percentage points more of their output to home consumption, even after conditioning on production scale, a result that is robust across OLS and fractional logit specifications. Sales shares, however, do not differ significantly by the manager’s gender. The consumption share results may suggest that women’s management is associated with greater home retention of output, which could carry food security implications not captured by standard income-focused metrics, although the survey does not permit direct assessment of food security or nutritional outcomes. The findings suggest that policies aimed at strengthening women’s participation in aquaculture should consider differences in how labor is organized and output allocation, alongside efforts to improve productivity and market participation.

Monitoring the impact of recent price volatility on food group consumption in Rwanda

This research uses high-frequency food price data from more than 60 Rwandan markets integrated with bi-weekly dietary consumption data collected during two periods in 2021/22 and 2023/24. During these periods considerable price fluctuations were observed, providing a unique opportunity to track consumption responses to large price instability created by global shocks.

“Smart” targeting of fertilizer subsidies in Kenya: Productivity, welfare, and soil health

Fertilizer subsidy programs in the Global South often juggle competing policy objectives of maximizing aggregate production and providing social protection for the poorest households. Using 2026 survey data from 3105 Kenyan households paired with parcel-level soil tests, this paper evaluates the targeting performance of Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP). Specifically, we analyze the extent to which the current “de facto” targeting—driven by digital registration and e-vouchers—aligns with these possibly conflicting policy goals. We find that the subsidy recipient populations who would maximize productivity do not tend to include the poorest and most vulnerable farmers. Furthermore, the current pool of NFSP beneficiaries shows limited overlap with the ideal beneficiaries for either policy objective. Among those who we would ideally target, we find that factors such as mobile phone ownership and knowledge of fertilizer recommendations may help predict which households actually receive benefits. We conclude that integrating soil testing into subsidy frameworks could significantly reduce these inefficiencies and improve the alignment between program delivery and national agricultural goals.

The early bird gets the cash: When should a scholarship for secondary school arrive? Evidence from Ethiopia

Key takeaways

• A study in Ethiopia found conditional cash transfers increased secondary school enrollment. Youth offered transfers were more likely to enroll and stay in school.

• Earlier notification delivered bigger impacts. Students informed more than a year in advance saw larger enrollment gains and higher exam pass rates.

• Benefits extended beyond schooling. The program reduced early marriage and improved household well-being, including increased school enrollment among younger siblings.

Anticipatory action and early warning systems: A community engagement toolkit for the Sahel

A key finding from this work was that community leaders expressed strong demand for training and concrete guidance on how to act before disasters arrive. Leaders understood the value of early action and were eager for practical tools that could help their communities move from awareness to preparation. There was also significant appetite for understanding how anticipatory action programming could complement and strengthen the preventative efforts communities were already undertaking on their own. This motivated developing the following field-ready storyboard tool – designed to introduce anticipatory action to leaders and community members in concrete, accessible terms and to support community leaders in building the shared understanding and buy-in needed to put early action plans in place before the next crisis arrives.

Intake of aquatic and terrestrial animal source foods among women of reproductive age in northern Tanzania

Aquatic foods and terrestrial animal source foods (TASF) provide crucial nutrients that build and maintain muscle mass and function. These foods are particularly rich in essential micronutrients, including iron, zinc, vitamin A (as retinol), vitamin D, and vitamin B12, as well as essential fatty acids. Notably, vitamin B12 is found almost exclusively in TASF and some aquatic foods, underscoring their importance in diets. Compared with plant-sourced protein foods, aquatic foods and TASF generally provide micronutrients in more bioavailable forms, which is critical for populations at risk of micronutrient deficiencies. However, aquatic foods and TASF have a higher environmental footprint than plant-sourced protein foods, requiring diversified strategies to meet global dietary needs under increasing environmental pressures.

El Niño preparedness and response

El Niño is a phase in an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean. It occurs on average every 2 to 7 years and typically lasts between 9 months and 2 years. El Niño affects global weather patterns, resulting in above-average precipitation in some places and droughts in others. Malawi and its neighbors typically experience drier than usual weather during El Niño, which often leads to poor growing conditions and below-average harvests (Anderson et al., 2023). In mid-June 2026, conditions in the Pacific Ocean have surpassed El Niño thresholds, and it is becoming increasingly probable that they will strengthen further (NOAA, 2026).

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, June 2026

Retail prices of maize stagnated in the Southern and Central Regions. The continued arrival of newly harvested maize drove price declines in the Northern Region, reflecting its later harvest season compared with the rest of the country. Continued maize imports of maize from Mozambique and Zambia also helped keep Malawian prices down.

How African economies are absorbing the 2026 oil price shock (so far)

Oil prices began climbing in January 2026 amid the escalating U.S. and Israeli confrontation with Iran, then spiked when war broke out on February 28 and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose by roughly 70% within weeks. By June, a fragile ceasefire had brought prices part of the way back down. Whether the calm holds depends on further diplomatic negotiations between the warring parties. Whatever the negotiators do next, this shock continues to stress economies and food systems around the world, though effects vary by region and country. Has it reached (or will it reach) Africa’s food systems, and where?

Diets, fruit and vegetable intake, and nutritional status in Benin, Fiji, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Tanzania: Foreword

Improving diets can improve nutrition and health outcomes. In this supplement, evidence from five low-and-middle-income countries on the country specific dietary (including F&V) intake patterns, nutrition issues and evaluated solutions to improve diets across population groups is presented. Based on this evidence, the final paper offers perspectives and future priorities.

Changing demographics in Ghana’s agrifood systems and implications for future youth engagement

Agrifood systems (AFS) are central to employment, food security, and economic transformation across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). As economies grow, urbanize, and experience changing food demand, AFS increasingly extend beyond farming to include processing and other downstream value chain activities. These transformations create new employment opportunities, particularly for youth and women, while reshaping labor markets and livelihoods. Understanding these changes is therefore essential for designing policies that promote inclusive growth, employment creation, and food system resilience.

This study examines the evolution of agrifood system employment in Ghana between 2000 and 2023. Using data from the International Labour Organization (ILO), the World Bank, and other national and international sources, the analysis documents trends in economic growth, population dynamics, urbanization, labor market outcomes, and employment across agrifood system segments. Particular attention is given to gender and youth dimensions of employment and their implications for inclusive development. The study contributes to the growing literature on agrifood system transformation by documenting changes in the composition of employment and identifying opportunities and constraints for inclusive participation in emerging value chains.

This study examines the evolution of agrifood system employment in Ghana between 2000 and 2023. Using data from the International Labour Organization (ILO), the World Bank, and other national and international sources, the analysis documents trends in economic growth, population dynamics, urbanization, labor market outcomes, and employment across agrifood system segments. Particular attention is given to gender and youth dimensions of employment and their implications for inclusive development. The study contributes to the growing literature on agrifood system transformation by documenting changes in the composition of employment and identifying opportunities and constraints for inclusive participation in emerging value chains.

The study finds that AFS remains the largest source of employment in Ghana, accounting for approximately two-thirds of total employment. Agriculture continues to employ a substantial share of workers, particularly men and youth, but its relative importance has declined steadily over time. At the same time, employment in nonfarm agrifood system activities – including food manufacturing, trade, transportation, and food services – expanded considerably. These findings suggest that Ghana’s labor market transformation is occurring not through a rapid exit from AFS but through diversification within them as value chains deepen and become more integrated.

The analysis also reveals important demographic patterns in AFS employment. Women are more concentrated in agrifood system employment than men and are particularly represented in nonfarm AFS activities such as trade and food-related services. However, women continue to face disadvantages in employment quality, financial inclusion, access to productive assets, and participation in formal employment. Similarly, youth remain highly dependent on AFS for their livelihoods. Although labor force participation among young people is lower and unemployment is higher than among mature workers, AFS – particularly farming – continues to provide employment for a large share of young people. These findings underscore the importance of AFS as a source of economic inclusion while highlighting the persistent barriers that women and youth continue to face.

Although the available data do not permit separate analysis of young women as a distinct population group, the combined evidence from this study and the broader literature suggests that they are likely to benefit substantially from the continued expansion of nonfarm agrifood activities. Food processing, marketing, food services, and other downstream value-chain segments are expanding in Ghana while already employing relatively large shares of women. Strengthening access to finance, productive assets, business development services, skills, and digital technologies can therefore help translate ongoing agrifood transformation into more dignified and fulfilling employment opportunities for young women.

Employment outside agrifood systems also expanded during the study period, with the share of non-AFS employment increasing by four percentage points to 34.6 percent in 2017, reflecting Ghana’s gradual structural transformation. Growth in non-AFS employment was stronger among men and mature adults than among women and youth, indicating that opportunities outside agrifood systems have expanded unevenly across population groups.

Overall, Ghana exhibits a relatively advanced stage of agrifood system transformation, characterized by declining agricultural employment, expanding nonfarm AFS activities, and gradual growth in non-AFS employment. Continued investments in agrifood value chains, infrastructure, market connectivity, access to finance, and entrepreneurship support will be essential to ensure that this transformation generates productive, inclusive, and resilient employment, particularly for women and young people.

Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agrifood system

Armed actors are entrenched in the agrifood systems of several low- and middle-income countries, often with implications for agricultural transformation and democratic transitions. This paper focuses on the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan’s agrifood system. Through over 50 semi-structured stakeholder interviews, the paper traces how these actors gained their foothold in the agrifood system and how they interact with the private sector across diverse value chains. We argue that their investments in certain value chains depend on whether the formal private sector is already involved and the degree of technical complexity required for more profitable product upgrading. Based on these considerations, we uncover four strategies used in different value chains: exclusive capture and rent-extraction, biased competition through licencing and quota allocations, acquiescence to private competitors when value-addition is too complex, and innovation when profit potential is high and the private sector is absent. We demonstrate these strategies with respect to livestock, wheat, gum Arabic, and horticulture, with secondary applications to other commodities. Since economic competition between SAF and RSF was a major factor in the outbreak of the 2023-armed conflict, identifying these strategies expands insights about the political economy antecedents of large-scale conflict.

Representation increases women’s influence in climate deliberations: Evidence from community-managed forests in Malawi

Women’s inclusion is now the norm in global and local initiatives to combat climate change. We examine how women’s representation affects climate deliberations using the case of community-managed forests in Malawi. We run a lab-in-the-field experiment randomly varying the gender composition of six-member groups asked to deliberate on policies to combat local overharvesting. We find that any given woman has relatively more influence in group deliberations when women make up a larger share of the group, a change driven by men’s assessments of women’s influence. Women’s presence also shifts the content of deliberations toward prospective solutions for which women have socially recognized expertise (cooking and replanting). Despite these changes, women and men do not prefer different deforestation policies, and women’s presence does not meaningfully affect group decisions. Our work demonstrates how women’s presence shapes climate deliberations but also calls into question claims that women’s inclusion will necessarily affect climate decisions.

Healthy diet perceptions and drivers of fruit and vegetable food choices among adolescents in Benin: A qualitative study

Globally, 75% of adolescents do not meet recommendations for fruits and vegetables (F&V) consumption. This study investigated drivers of F&V choices among adolescents in Benin and identified barriers and facilitators to modifying F&V consumption. We conducted 16 focus group discussions (FGDs) with 126 adolescents and 5 semi-structured school observations in December 2024. FGDs were purposively chosen to explore variation by region (north/south), school location (urban/rural), adolescent age (12 to 15 years/16-18 years) and gender (boys/girls). Inductive and deductive thematic content analysis was performed using Atlas.ti. Findings showed that adolescents perceived a healthy diet as one composed of meals providing nutrients and strength, and including F&V. At home, adolescents mentioned eating staples and other vegetables more than other food groups. The foods adolescents reported typically eating at school varied by age, gender, and location. The primary categories of factors that influenced adolescent F&V choices were: intrapersonal (knowledge related to healthy eating and the nutrition and health benefits of F&V, taste preferences, and health prioritisation), socio-cultural (family and peer influences), and food environment (low availability, low affordability, convenience, and desirability). DFC factors were consistent across adolescent age, gender, and location. Multiple, dynamic, and multilevel factors influence adolescent F&V choices. Interventions that simultaneously address multiple barriers and involve family and peers are likely to be more successful in promoting F&V consumption and healthy diets than interventions only addressing individual barriers.

A crop disease without borders: Why wheat stem rust threatens your food security

Wheat Stem Rust (WSR) is no longer a localized crop disease. New strains are spreading across continents and overcoming resistance in widely grown wheat varieties. International markets spread the impacts of WSR far beyond outbreak zones. Even countries without outbreaks can face higher prices, lower food access and rising hunger. By 2050, WSR could put an additional 1 to 2.6 million people at risk of hunger each year, over a no-disease situation, rising to as many as 10 million in a worst-case scenario. WSR will impact primarily the most food-insecure populations worldwide. Investing in wheat disease research and wheat resistant varieties is a global public good. The benefits extend far beyond outbreaks regions, but no single country has enough incentives to invest alone.

Determinants of infant and young child feeding practices of children with severe acute malnutrition in agrarian and pastoralist settings of Ethiopia

Previous research has established determinants of young child feeding (IYCF) practices in the general child population, but determinants of these practices in children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) are unknown. This study assessed the determinants of IYCF practices among children aged 6–23 months with SAM and under SAM treatment in a pastoralist and a predominantly agrarian setting in Ethiopia. As part of the baseline survey for the R-SWITCH cluster randomized control trial, we screened ~28,000 under-fives and included 486 children aged 6–23 months with SAM and under SAM treatment. Multivariable regression analysis was used to identify determinants on household, caregiver and child levels. Minimum meal frequency (MMF) was similar between children from the agrarian (53.9%) and pastoralist (51.9%) setting. The prevalence of children with minimum dietary diversity (MDD) was low overall but higher among pastoralist children (31.5%) than children from the agrarian setting (19.0%; p = 0.012). The consumption of egg/flesh foods was lower among pastoralist children (5.6%) than agrarian children (16.9%, p = 0.085). Caregiver literacy was positively associated with a higher likelihood of MMF (IRR = 1.21; 95% CI:1.02–1.43; p = 0.030), while caregiver depression was associated with a lower likelihood of MMF (RR = 0.97; 95% CI:0.95–0.99; p = 0.003). Improved water source (RR = 1.59; 95% CI:1.06–2.38; p = 0.037), caregiver literacy (RR = 2.04; 95% CI:1.25–3.34; p = 0.002), caregiver MDD (RR = 2.21; 95% CI:1.60–3.05; p ≤ 0.001), older children(RR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.02–1.08;p ≤ 0.001), and pastoralist setting (RR = 1.62; 95% CI:1.07–2.44; p = 0.014) were associated with a significantly higher likelihood of meeting MDD. Conversely, caregiver depression (RR = 0.94; 95% CI:0.90–0.97; p < 0.001), caregiver mobility restriction (IRR = 0.94; 95% CI:0.89–1.00; p = 0.025), and food insecurity (RR = 0.64; 95% CI:0.41–1.01; p = 0.05) were associated with reduced MDD likelihood. Caregiver community involvement (IRR = 1.12; 95% CI:1.00–1.26; p = 0.038), caregiver MDD (RR = 1.67; 95% CI:1.10–2.53; p = 0.043), and older children (RR = 1.08; 95% CI:1.05–1.12; p < 0.001) were associated with increased egg/flesh-food consumption among children, while living in a pastoralist setting was associated with reduced it (RR = 0.36; 95% CI:0.13–0.97; p = 0.038). Integrated and Targeted interventions recommended: caregiver literacy/depression support to improve IYCF; livelihood-specific foods (eggs/flesh, fruits/vegetables); WaSH enhancements; community engagement; and IYCF counseling within CMAM programs.

Barriers and factors associated with treatment coverage of severe acute malnutrition among children 6–59 months in agrarian and pastoralist areas of Ethiopia

Severe acute malnutrition remains a major public health concern, yet a large proportion of affected children do not receive appropriate treatment. Understanding the barriers and associated factors is essential for informing targeted, context‐specific interventions. A door‐to‐door screening campaign among children aged 6–59 months was conducted from May to September 2024 in Kersa (agrarian) and Jeldessa (pastoralist) woredas of Ethiopia. The treatment coverage of severe acute malnutrition was 12.8% (95% CI: 9.0%–17.9%). The most frequently reported barriers to treatment included lack of awareness of the child’s nutritional status, time and financial constraints, and absence of family permission. Multivariable analysis revealed that household wealth index (aPR: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.5–5.5), use of water treatment methods (aPR: 4.6; 95% CI: 1.7–11.9), recent community MUAC screening (aPR: 12.0; 95% CI: 5.4–26.8), availability of treatment services at a nearby health post (aPR: 3.2; 95% CI: 1.1–9.9), and possession of a vaccination card (aPR: 3.2; 95% CI: 1.1–9.1) were significantly associated with severe acute malnutrition treatment coverage. The findings highlight that severe acute malnutrition treatment coverage in both pastoralist and agrarian settings of Ethiopia remains critically low. Stronger implementation of active screening and treatment services recommended by Ethiopian national guidelines, together with social protection measures for the poorest households, may improve treatment coverage.

Formative research in Ethiopia and Bangladesh: Strengthening household survey measures of maternal micronutrient supplementation in low- and middle-income countries

Background
As countries transition from implementing iron folic acid (IFA) to multiple micronutrient supplements (MMS) for pregnant women, they need accurate data on who is being reached with these interventions. The aim of our formative research in Ethiopia and Bangladesh was to design updated household survey questions, response options, and visual aids to measure coverage of prenatal micronutrient supplements.

Methods
In phase I, we landscaped health providers and retailers to identify prenatal micronutrient products available in each country and interviewed currently pregnant women (CPW) and recently delivered women (RDW) about how they differentiated among micronutrient products. In phase II, we used these findings to draft survey questions and visual aids. In phase III, we iteratively tested and refined the draft tools through cognitive interviews with women.

Results
We had 73 participants in Ethiopia and 132 in Bangladesh, encompassing CPW, RDW, healthcare workers, and retailers. Women in both contexts distinguished among micronutrient products based on colour, shape, packaging, and perceived purpose. In cognitive tests, women generally understood the English term ‘iron’ as a catch-all term for any iron-containing supplement. Women did not recognise any specific term for multivitamins or MMS. Shorter recalls of seven days or one month for adherence were feasible for respondents.

Conclusions
It is challenging for the measurement community to identify terms and images that help women distinguish between supplement types. The final set of survey questions developed as part of this research is comprehensible and can be feasibly adapted and used in multi-topic surveys in MMS contexts, but requires validation.

Lived experiences of weather-driven challenges in outdoor food markets in Kenya

Objectives: Climate change affects daily weather and livelihoods. For daily access, many people rely on outdoor food markets that lack weather protection, leaving vendors and food exposed. This study assessed how weather contributes to vendors’ decision-making regarding food procurement and sales in outdoor markets.

Associations between diet quality and diversity and mental health in women of reproductive age in northern Tanzania: A cross-sectional study

Objectives: Mental disorders among women of reproductive age (WRA) in Sub-Saharan Africa are an increasing concern. Diet is one of the most modifiable risk factors for mental disorders, yet population-specific information from this region is limited. Our objective was to examine associations between diet quality and diversity and mental health among WRA in rural northern Tanzania.

Healthy diet perceptions and drivers of fruit and vegetable food choices among adolescents in Benin: A qualitative study

Objectives: Low fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption contributes to preventable mortality and morbidity from non-communicable diseases. Adolescence is a critical period to influence and change dietary choices. We aimed to understand factors that influence F&V food choices and identify barriers and facilitators to modifying F&V consumption among adolescents in Benin.

Perceived challenges and solutions to adopting healthy diets among women and children: A photovoice study in urban Ethiopia

Ethiopia has one of the highest rates of undernutrition among children under five (U5) and women of reproductive age (WRA) globally, alongside rising overweight/obesity, particularly in urban areas. Poor diet is a shared driver of multiple forms of malnutrition. We used a participatory photography (Photovoice) approach to explore the lived experiences of WRA and their children U5 in adopting healthy diets across lower- and higher- socio-economic status (SES) groups in Addis Ababa. Women took photographs illustrating challenges to healthy diets, and five focus groups (n = 31 women) were conducted to discuss challenges and solutions, with separate sessions held for different SES groups. A hybrid thematic analysis, combining deductive and inductive approaches, identified themes/subthemes, with comparisons across SES groups. Financial and physical barriers to accessing healthy foods, time constraints and perceived poor food safety were major contributors to poor diets. In lower SES groups, women also reported limited knowledge about healthy diets, inadequate family support and poor home food environments. In higher SES groups, unhealthy food preferences coupled with easy access to and aggressive promotion of unhealthy foods were key challenges. Proposed government-level solutions included job creation, nutrition education, affordable healthy food, investment in household infrastructure, expanded childcare and restrictions on unhealthy food availability and promotion. Societal-level solutions included gender equality, strengthened community-based loan schemes and support for urban agriculture. These findings highlight that women recognise their needs and who should support them, and emphasise the importance of including women’s voices in decision-making processes. Findings also underscore the need for integrated interventions targeting individual, food environment and socio-economic drivers to improve diets among women and children in urban Ethiopia.

Women’s experiences of the food environment and their association with fruit and vegetable intake: Insights from northern Tanzania

This analysis examined associations between factors in the food environment and fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake among women living in rural Northern Tanzania. We used cross-sectional data from 2597 women and 1275 food sources. Women’s self-reported factors included buying frequency, sources, availability, and convenience. We also measured women’s access to F&V sources using geospatial measures of distance and time from home to the reported typical sources. Data from a 30-day F&V food frequency questionnaire were used to calculate two scores that captured intake frequency and variety. We conducted a descriptive analysis of indicators of women’s experience and tested their associations with the scores using multivariable and Poisson regression models, controlling for covariates. On average, 5% and 35% of women reported buying F&V daily, respectively. Fruit was mostly bought from markets: F: 80%, V: 40%. Two-thirds of respondents perceived F&V as available (F: 65%, V: 60%). Median (IQR) distance and time to fruit sources were 9 km (2,19), 39 min (19,78), and to vegetable sources were 3 km (1,10), 32 min (8-69). Compared to women who reported making daily purchases of F&V, those who purchased weekly or monthly reported lower frequency and variety of F&V intake. Women’s perceptions that F&V were less available and at a longer distance were associated with lower frequency and variety of vegetable intake.Buying frequency, perceived availability, and distance to markets were associated with women’s frequency and variety of F&V intake, underscoring the need to consider these and other factors in food environments to increase F&V intake.

Regional integration, resilience, and innovation

Regional integration has become a strategic objective for Africa in an era marked by global tensions, climate vulnerability, and persistent structural transformation challenges. Despite decades of regional trade agreements, intra-African trade remains limited and concentrated in a narrow range of products, reflecting shallow productive integration and high trade costs. These constraints are particularly present in agriculture, which employs nearly 60% of Africa’s labor force and plays a central role in food security, income generation, and poverty reduction (Mamboundou et al. 2026). The launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents a structural shift toward continent-wide deep integration, with the potential to expand intra-African trade, strengthen regional value chains, and enhance economic resilience. At the same time, digital innovation and climate imperatives are reshaping the policy landscape, creating both opportunities and adjustment pressures. This chapter examines the interconnections between regional integration, resilience, and innovation in Africa, assessing the evolution and performance of regional trade integration, evaluating the projected impacts of AfCFTA implementation, and analyzing the roles of digitalization and climate-smart trade pathways in supporting inclusive and sustainable transformation. In the context of the post-MC14, the chapter contributes to ongoing debates on how regional integration can complement multilateral reform, particularly in agriculture, digital trade governance, and climate-related trade measures.

Final remarks [in Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African perspectives for post-MC14]

Agricultural trade is at a crossroads. The global agricultural trading system is undergoing a transformation and, as this book has argued, the changes observed in recent years are not temporary disruptions but reflect a deeper structural shift. The system has moved away from a relatively predictable, rules-based environment toward a more fragmented setting, where trade outcomes are increasingly shaped by geopolitical tensions, environmental disruptions, evolving policy instruments, and persistent structural asymmetries across countries. The erosion of predictability, the proliferating use of selective and non-MFN measures, the interaction between trade and broader geopolitical objectives, and the growing role of supply chains and logistics are redefining how agricultural trade operates.

Scenarios for agricultural trade in a changing world

Over the past 45 years, world merchandise trade has undergone significant structural transformations, and agrifood products have been part of that evolution. After a period of stagnation in the early 1980s, global trade expanded steadily from the mid-1980s through the early 2000s, driven by trade liberalization, technological progress, and deeper economic integration. This expansion accelerated between 2005 and 2010 with the consolidation of global value chains. Between 2010 and 2020, trade growth slowed amid weaker demand and rising tensions. Following the COVID-19 shock, trade rebounded sharply, reaching a historical peak in 2022, largely driven by price increases in the context of the war in Ukraine and general inflationary trends due to the economic recovery following the pandemic. These price surges proved relatively short-lived, however, and commodity prices have generally declined since mid-2022 as supply conditions improved and markets adjusted.

Introduction [in Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African perspectives for post-MC14]

Agricultural trade lies at the heart of development, food security, and sustainability. Over the past several decades, global trade in agricultural products has grown both in volume and complexity. Trade has supported structural transformation, expanded food access, and increased incomes across regions. But in recent years, this system has become increasingly strained. Rising geopolitical tensions, recurring global shocks, and a growing disconnect between trade rules and sustainability goals have left the global trading system at a crossroads.

This book is the fourth in a series of concise, policy-focused publications aimed at supporting agricultural trade reform and food systems transformation. The first volume, titled Transforming Agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean: Challenges and Opportunities, examined how shifting climate, social, and economic pressures were reshaping the region’s food systems. The second, Food Systems at a Crossroads, explored the political economy of food and agriculture in Latin America, identifying core trade-offs and opportunities for policy innovation. The third volume, The Road to MC12, provided timely analysis ahead of the 12th World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Ministerial to highlight risks of fragmentation and Latin America’s potential to contribute to a reinvigorated multilateral system.

This fourth edition expands the conversation to include Africa, a region with growing importance in global agricultural trade debates. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and Africa face distinct realities, but they also share vulnerabilities and strategic interests. Both regions have significant agricultural potential, are highly exposed to trade-related shocks, and are seeking a fairer, more inclusive trade regime. This book aims to deepen understanding of how these regions are navigating a rapidly evolving global landscape and how they can contribute to shaping the future of agricultural trade.

Geopolitical changes and the new agricultural trade environment

In the previous edition of this book series, published in 2024 as a contribution to the 13th Ministerial Conference, one of our main themes was the profound geopolitical changes that were taking place in the world and its implications for the functioning of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and trade in general. Our analysis pointed to a progressive weakening of multilateral institutions and of the enforcement of multilateral trade rules. This was particularly noticeable among the large economies with considerable bargaining power. We warned that this trend risked a return to power-based bilateralism, at the expense of global cooperation.

Two years later, as we approach the 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) in Yaoundé, the geopolitical changes we were concerned about—and the threats to the rules-based multilateral trade system—have gained a scale and intensity that exceed even the most pessimistic forecasts. This crisis is fueled by a growing conviction in many advanced economies, led by the United States of America (US), that the current trade framework is outdated. The US perspective has shifted from supporting the system to actively disrupting it, citing chronic non-compliance, particularly by China, and the perceived failure of the WTO to address state-led economic models. As a result, the global landscape has shifted beyond potential risks, with increasing use of reciprocal tariffs and a gradual fragmentation of trade relationships.

Evolving trade instruments in a fragmented system

The global landscape for agricultural trade is going through deep transformations. In the face of persistent blockage in multilateral negotiations, growing geopolitical tensions, and national security considerations, governments are exploring alternative forms of cooperation. Alongside traditional bilateral and regional trade agreements, new collaborative arrangements are emerging in the form of plurilateral or sectoral approaches, informal coalitions, soft law initiatives, or agreed principles to deepen economic integration or advance specific trade agendas among like-minded partners. While these initiatives provide a space to test new ideas and approaches, which could inform future models of trade cooperation, they also contribute to growing fragmentation in the global agricultural trading system.

Africa’s key issues in WTO negotiations, MC14 and beyond

At the creation of the multilateral trading system in 1948, agriculture was formally covered by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), including principles such as tariff bindings and non-discrimination. In practice, however, agriculture remained largely exempt from strict multilateral disciplines, as governments maintained wide policy space to support domestic farm sectors through subsidies, price controls, and non-tariff measures. This flexibility largely reflected the concerns of major agricultural economies, while developing countries, including many in Africa, remained primarily exporters of primary commodities with limited influence over global rule-making.

Africa’s agricultural trade performance and structural barriers

Africa’s agricultural trade has been characterized by a persistent trade balance deficit over the past decade, with import bills consistently outpacing export revenues. With the world’s fastest growing population and weak domestic food systems, imports of agrifood products are increasing rapidly, raising the dependence of the continent on external markets and its exposure to global food price volatility. This vulnerability is compounded by the limited diversification of exports, which remain concentrated in a narrow range of primary commodities subject to significant price fluctuations, thereby contributing to macroeconomic instability.

At the same time, continent-wide initiatives such as the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aim to address these structural challenges. Both frameworks seek to strengthen agrifood systems, enhance productive capacities, promote value addition, and better align agricultural production with domestic and regional demand, ultimately contributing to more stable and resilient food markets.

In this context, expanding intra-African trade can provide significant benefits. Greater regional integration can stimulate economic growth through wider market access, foster regional value chains, and improve food security by enhancing the availability and affordability of food across borders. However, despite broad consensus on these potential benefits, the actual level and trajectory of intra-African agricultural trade remain subject to debate, partly due to data limitations and differences in measurement approaches.

This chapter, therefore, provides a comprehensive assessment of Africa’s agricultural trade performance over the past decade, examining both structural trends and persistent barriers that constrain diversification, competitiveness, and deeper regional integration.

Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African perspectives for post-MC14

The book Agricultural Trade at a Crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African Perspectives for Post‑MC14 examines how global agricultural trade is being reshaped by geopolitical tensions, limited progress with multilateral negotiations, and evolving economic priorities. It analyzes how these changes affect developing regions especially Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa highlighting challenges such as trade fragmentation, food security concerns, and structural barriers, while also exploring opportunities for competitiveness, regional integration, and innovation.

Large language models as measurement instruments in applied economics: A 10-country public-discourse panel on food and nutrition security in Africa, 2010–2025

Large language models (LLM) are increasingly used in applied economics to convert unstructured text into structured empirical measures. This paper examines their use as measurement instruments through a 10-country public-discourse panel on food and nutrition security in Africa from 2010 to 2025. The panel covers Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, and contains 206 document-level records drawn from public early-warning, humanitarian, government, and technical sources. Each record is organized by country, date, source type, geography, benchmark type, benchmark phase where available, leakage risk, and a set of generated coding variables describing food-security dimension, text severity, narrative frame, tone, attribution, and evidence type. The paper treats LLM-coded outputs not as ground truth, but as generated variables subject to measurement error, source-selection bias, benchmark leakage, and uncertainty arising from incomplete or uneven source text. A conservative validation sample is limited to records with completed source-grounded excerpts, while an exploratory validation sample uses the broader metadata-supported corpus to examine phase coverage across benchmark categories. The results illustrate both the promise and the limits of LLM-assisted public-discourse measurement. Public documents can be transformed into transparent, auditable indicators of food-security stress, but their validity depends on document sampling, excerpt quality, benchmark independence, source diversity, and careful distinction between technical classifications and independent discourse. The paper contributes to the emerging literature on LLMs in economics by shifting attention from general productivity uses toward the practical conditions under which LLM-assisted text measurement can support applied research and policy analysis.

A reproducibility package accompanies the study and includes the coded data, validation samples, codebook, data dictionary, AI-use disclosure, leakage documentation, and scripts for reproducing the descriptive results.

Land tenure security, crop choices, and agricultural input investment decisions: Evidence from nationally representative data in Nigeria

Land tenure security is widely regarded as essential for agricultural investment and productivity growth. However, causal evidence on its effects across multiple farm decisions remains limited, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. This study investigates how tenure security is associated with crop portfolio choices and input investment decisions among smallholder farmers in rural Nigeria. It measures tenure security using a composite index, drawn from wave 5 of the Nigeria Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA), that captures plot-level perceived security of ownership, and household reported risk of land loss, ownership security, and duration of ownership. The study employs two complementary approaches: a multivariate probit model to capture the joint and correlated nature of crop adoption decisions, and limited information maximum likelihood instrumental variables (LIML-IV) estimation to establish association between land tenure and input investment decisions. Results reveal significant but heterogeneous effects. Greater tenure security increases the probability of cultivating grains and cereals by 29.8 percentage points, while reducing the likelihood of growing legumes and pulses by 24.6 percentage points and horticulture by 11.4 percentage points respectively, which suggests a substitution effect toward grain specialization. On input investments, LIML-IV estimates indicate that a one-unit increase in the tenure security index raises organic fertilizer use by 9.93 percent, inorganic fertilizer use by 6.57 percent, and pesticide use by approximately 0.89 percent. These findings are robust to Lewbel’s heteroskedasticity-based identification strategy. Heterogeneity analysis reveals stronger investment effects among youth-headed households, while impacts on female-managed plots are statistically insignificant, pointing to persistent gender barriers. The study highlights the need for integrated policies that combine tenure formalization with crop diversification support, gender- and youth-sensitive land governance, and input market development in order to maximize the productivity gains from land rights reform in Nigeria.

2026 Sudan conflict conference: Three years of conflict in Sudan: What the evidence tells us and what recovery requires – Conference proceedings

The 2026 Sudan Conflict Conference, organized by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Cairo and held on 14 and 15 April, brought together researchers, policymakers, and development partners to discuss the impacts of Sudan’s protracted conflict on the nation’s economy and agrifood systems and to identify evidence‑based pathways for recovery. This proceedings report documents the key evidence, discussions, and policy insights generated during the conference, capturing technical research, operational perspectives, and contextual nuances. Three years into the crisis, Sudan faces a systemic breakdown affecting agricultural production, markets, institutions, and human capital, leaving more than half of the population in need of humanitarian assistance.

Evidence presented during the conference highlighted severe disruptions to agrifood systems and increasingly fragmented markets, with food insecurity driven primarily by affordability and accessibility constraints. While firms and households have shown adaptive capacity, these responses to the conflict remain constrained and often rely on unsustainable coping strategies, including asset depletion and reduced investment. Displacement continues to deepen vulnerability but also offers the potential for increased economic integration supported by inclusive approaches, while the erosion of health and education systems poses serious long‑term risks to human capital and growth.

Across the conference sessions, a clear consensus emerged on the need for integrated, system‑wide responses that link humanitarian assistance with recovery and development interventions. Agriculture and market systems were identified as critical entry points, while cash assistance is most effective when combined with livelihood and market support. Moving forward, the recovery of the nation’s economy and agrifood systems coming out of the conflict will require coordinated strategies to restore markets, rebuild livelihoods, invest in human capital, and strengthen data‑driven decision-making, supported by sustained international engagement and locally grounded approaches.

Iran war supply chain disruptions: Impacts on India’s economy

Key takeaways

• India’s economy is highly exposed to fuel and fertilizer supply disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an economic modeling analysis shows.

• GDP and household incomes fall across all modeled scenarios. Higher input costs and supply disruptions hit farmers hardest and slow overall economic growth.

• Technology offers the most effective policy path to cushion the blow and build resilience. Improving fertilizer efficiency can limit losses while avoiding large subsidy-driven fiscal pressures.

The emerging role of AI tools in smallholder finance

Key takeaways

• AI can expand access to finance for smallholders, a key element of food system transformation . AI tools can improve risk assessment, lower costs, and help lenders reach farmers without traditional credit histories.

• Real-world applications show strong potential. Tools using satellite data, machine learning, and digital images are increasing credit uptake, insurance adoption, and investment decisions.

• Risks and gaps must be addressed. Limited data, unequal access—especially for women—and weak governance can deepen exclusion without responsible design and oversight.

The potential of solar-powered irrigation in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from irrigation water pumping in Kenya

This policy note presents the main findings from an IFPRI forecasting analysis that quantifies the potential for reducing GHG emissions through the adoption of solar-powered irrigation systems in Kenya. The study focuses specifically on groundwater irrigation systems, where energy consumption for water pumping is typically concentrated.

Nigeria’s fuel, fertilizer, and food prices feel the strain of the Iran conflict

Nigeria is once again under economic pressure from a shock that originated far from its borders, as it faces high global fuel and fertilizer prices triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. For a country still recovering from the inflationary aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war, the timing could hardly be worse. The shock is reaching Nigeria through three tightly linked channels, fuel, fertilizer, and food, and it threatens to reverse a hard-won decline in food inflation.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: May 2026

This report provides a monthly assessment of prices, availability, and market conditions for essential commodities across Sudan in May 2026, covering staple foods, vegetables, livestock products, agricultural inputs, fuel, labor markets, and trader perceptions. Prices increased for many commodities, including cereals, pulses, vegetables, meat products, sugar, and fava beans, while trader-reported availability generally declined across most commodity groups, indicating growing pressure on market supplies. Significant regional disparities persisted, with Darfur and Kordofan states frequently recording higher prices and lower availability than other regions. Market surveys revealed continued supply chain and liquidity challenges, particularly in conflict-affected areas, although storage constraints remained minimal and most traders expected to maintain or expand their business activities in the coming months. Overall, the findings point to gradually tightening market conditions, rising costs, and ongoing regional vulnerabilities that warrant continued monitoring to support food security and market stabilization efforts in Sudan.

Pre- and postharvest losses and their correlates in the Irish potato value chain in Kenya

Food losses are a major constraint to agricultural productivity, farm incomes, and agrifood system efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa, yet comprehensive micro-level evidence across value chains remains limited. This study provides a detailed assessment of pre- and postharvest losses in the Irish potato value chain in Kenya, drawing on purposefully collected data from producers, aggregators and processors. Using a consistent, multidimensional measurement framework, the study captures both quantitative (physical) and qualitative (degradation) losses across production and postharvest stages.

The results indicate that potato losses are widespread and occur throughout the value chain, with the largest share concentrated at the producer level. Preharvest losses and on-farm postharvest losses account for a substantial proportion (23.5 percent) of total losses, reflecting the combined effects of pest and disease pressures, weather-related shocks, and suboptimal management practices. Nationally, producer-level potato losses could amount to KSh 14.5 billion annually, equivalent to the annual per capita income of about 50,000 Kenyans. While producer-level losses dominate, descriptive evidence shows that potato aggregators and processors also incur nonnegligible losses, particularly during storage, transportation, and handling. These losses are commonly associated with spillage, mechanical damage, inadequate storage conditions, and poor handling practices, highlighting inefficiencies beyond the farm gate.

Econometric results reveal that loss patterns vary across producers and production environments. Differences in demographic characteristics, farm size, labor availability, and market orientation contribute to heterogeneity in both the likelihood and intensity of losses. These results further demonstrate that asset ownership, management practices, and exposure to production risks are key determinants of loss outcomes. Greater household assets and labor availability are associated with reduced loss incidence and intensity, while exposure to biotic and abiotic stressors – captured through a composite index – significantly increases both the probability and severity of preharvest losses.

Input use and management practices also play an important role. The application of chemical fertilizers is associated with reduced loss intensity, consistent with improved crop vigor and resilience, while the use of pest control is positively correlated with loss occurrence, likely reflecting reactive application following infestation. The adoption of improved seed varieties increases the likelihood of losses but reduces the intensity of them, which is a nuanced finding that suggests both greater exposure and improved resilience conditional on damage. Access to training and third-party agricultural service is associated with lower losses, underscoring the importance of knowledge and advisory support. This area also presents opportunities for youth, particularly young women, to engage in agrifood-system service provision through activities such as advisory services, quality management, aggregation, and postharvest handling, which can simultaneously reduce losses and generate income. Importantly, the analysis reveals strong linkages between preharvest and postharvest losses. Higher preharvest losses are associated with both increased likelihood and greater severity of postharvest losses, indicating that damage incurred during production propagates along the value chain.

Overall, potato losses in Kenya are systemic but largely preventable through improved handling, storage, market infrastructure, and farmer capacity. Although youth sample sizes in this study are too small to quantify specific effects, the data highlight clear entry points for engaging youth, particularly young women, in reducing post-harvest losses. For instance, there are opportunities for involving youths in services offered at the production stage, which include sorting, curing, and transportation.

Vegetable intake among women of reproductive age in northern Tanzania: Baseline findings from the FRESH end-to-end evaluation

Adequate intake of fruit and vegetables (F&V) is fundamental to meeting micronutrient requirements, reducing the risk of diet-related noncommunicable diseases, and supporting overall health and well-being. The World Health Organization recommends a minimum daily intake of 400 g of F&V, whereas the Tanzania Food-Based Dietary Guidelines (FBDGs) advise a daily intake of approximately 280 g each of fruit and vegetables to promote healthy living. Intake of F&V in Tanzania and many other low- and middle-income countries, however, remains substantially below recommended levels. In sub-Saharan Africa, diets are frequently dominated by staple cereals and tubers, with limited dietary diversity and low intake of nutrient-dense foods, including F&V. In Tanzania, women of reproductive age (WRA) are at high risk of micronutrient deficiencies, including iron, folate, vitamins A, C and B12. These inadequacies impair immune function, increase susceptibility to infection, and contribute to iron-deficiency anaemia, fatigue, and reduced productivity. During pregnancy, poor micronutrient status elevates the risk of maternal morbidity, preterm birth, low birth weight, and impaired fetal growth. During lactation, inadequate status may reduce the micronutrient content of breast milk, potentially compromising infant growth and immune function.

Can local procurement for food aid foster market development? Evidence from indirect conditional contracting in Uganda

Smallholder farmers in low-income countries often operate in fragmented markets characterized by volatile prices, weak bargaining power, and limited incentives to invest in productivity and quality. Large institutional buyers procuring locally can reshape these conditions by creating structured demand and embedding sourcing requirements in contracts with intermediaries, potentially transmitting incentives upstream to farmers. This study evaluates a maize procurement policy introduced in 2021 by a major institutional buyer in Uganda that required its large trader-aggregator suppliers to source at least 20 percent of deliveries directly from smallholder farmers through “indirect conditional contracting.” Using survey data collected in 2024 from nearly 1,300 smallholder farmers and nearly 300 aggregators across six districts, we estimate effects on prices, technology adoption, quality upgrading, welfare, and resilience. Intent-to-treat (ITT) estimates show that residing in areas where the major buyer operates is associated with 5–6 percent higher farmgate prices on average, with instrumental variable (IV) estimates suggesting upper bound premiums of up to 45 percent. Farmers in the conditional contract group earn positive net returns and increase adoption of improved inputs and postharvest practices. Intermediary aggregators receive about 7 (ITT) to 30 (IV) percent lower selling prices but increase adoption of postharvest quality practices. Mediation analysis indicates that gains for farmers arise primarily through increased competition between intermediaries. However, downstream welfare outcomes remain inconclusive, with suggestive evidence that non-participating farmers in treatment areas may face lower prices due to market segmentation. Overall, our findings show that indirect conditional contracts can reshape value chain incentives by attracting intermediaries, increasing competition, and stimulating upstream investment, even as they generate uneven distributional effects.

Gender asset-ownership gap, women’s agency, and its implications for household inequality: Evidence from Nigeria

he gender asset-ownership gap remains a persistent barrier to inclusive economic growth. While women contribute significantly to agricultural production and household welfare, they continue to face constraints in accessing and controlling productive assets such as land and non-land resources. Using nationally representative panel data from the Nigeria Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) waves 4 and 5, this study examines the role of women’s productive asset ownership and empowerment in shaping household income inequality in rural Nigeria. Descriptive evidence shows persistently high intrahousehold inequality, with intrahousehold Gini coefficients averaging approximately 0.70 across survey rounds, despite a modest decline between 2018/19 and 2023/24. Regional patterns reveal particularly pronounced inequality in the North East, where income distributions are heavily skewed and most households exhibit extreme intrahousehold disparities. Employing fixed effects regressions and Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions, the analysis yields three key findings. First, women’s land share is associated with reduced intrahousehold income inequality, but this effect is modest and conditional. It becomes meaningful primarily in households where women control more than half of total household farmland, suggesting that small and fragmented landholdings offer limited inequality-reducing potential on their own. Women’s control over income and participation in agricultural decision-making emerge as additional and consistently significant drivers of reduced intrahousehold inequality. Second, women’s land share has a significant and positive effect on women’s income share, with a 10 percentage point increase in female-managed farmland associated with approximately a 0.76 percentage point increase in women’s share of household income; women’s income control and agricultural decision-making further amplify this effect. Third, Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions reveal that households where women own productive assets have significantly lower intrahousehold inequality and higher women’s income shares than those where no woman owns an asset, with differences driven primarily by disparities in women’s income control and decision-making authority rather than asset ownership alone. This shifts the policy debate from simply closing gender asset gaps to ensuring women’s assets are productive and consolidated with genuine economic agency.

Effects of the Iran conflict on fuel, fertilizer, and food prices in Nigeria

Nigeria faces a new wave of economic pressure from the ongoing Iran conflict, with disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz causing sharp increases in global oil and fertilizer prices and threatening to reverse the recent decline in Nigeria’s food inflation. Although Nigeria could benefit from higher oil and fertilizer export revenues due to its expanding domestic refining and urea production capacity, the country remains heavily dependent on imported refined fuel, potash, phosphate, and other fertilizer inputs. Rising transport, logistics, and production costs are already increasing pressure on farmers, food systems, and household welfare. At the same time, however, the crisis presents a strategic opportunity for Nigeria to strengthen domestic refining, expand fertilizer production, deepen regional trade, and reposition itself as a major supplier of fuel and fertilizer across Africa.

The early bird gets the cash: Early notification and conditional cash transfers for secondary school

What is the optimal timing for a cash transfer targeting increased secondary school enrollment? We present evidence from a randomized trial in rural Ethiopia showing a CCT increases enrollment and reduces child marriage. The largest effects are observed for youth offered the transfer a year prior to their (potential) matriculation; in this cohort, there is also a significant in-crease in the probability students pass the primary school leaving exam. By contrast, reduced treatment effects are observed for prior dropouts, and a generalized random forest analysis suggests this primarily reflects different observable characteristics (lower academic performance) among this sub-sample.

Soil tests, vouchers, and the limits of site-specific fertilizer recommendations: Experimental evidence from Malawi

Fertilizer subsidy programmes dominate agricultural spending in several African countries. Rising and volatile fertilizer prices have renewed concerns about the efficiency of such spending, prompting initiatives to tailor fertilizer recommendations to local soil conditions. We test this premise in Malawi, where the national subsidy programme distributes a standard package of urea and NPK fertilizer. In a cluster-randomized trial involving more than 2,000 households across 113 villages, we assign farmers to (i) a plot-level soil-test recommendation, (ii) the same recommendation combined with a voucher of subsidy-equivalent value, or (iii) a control group. The recommendation alone has no effect on fertilizer use, input choice, or maize yields. When paired with a voucher, fertilizer use and maize yields increase substantially, with yields rising by roughly one-third; at the maize prices prevailing in our study area, however, the value of this additional production falls short of the face value of the voucher, let alone the value of the voucher plus the cost of individualized soil test. For farmers themselves the package is nonetheless profitable, since the voucher largely displaces fertilizer they would have bought anyway and so lowers their own input spending, and because many households are net maize buyers, valuing the additional output at retail rather than farmgate prices narrows the shortfall. The yield gains do not reflect adoption of site-specific prescriptions: voucher recipients predominantly purchase urea and NPK in proportions closely matching the standard subsidy bundle, regardless of what their soil test recommends, and compliance with recommended alternatives such as potassium, lime, or calcium ammonium nitrate is negligible. Because the observed gains come almost entirely from nitrogen intensification while phosphorus, potassium, and lime gaps remain uncorrected, the measured yield response is a lower bound on what full-compliance fertilization could deliver. Relaxing financial constraints thus increases input use and productivity, but information alone does not redirect behaviour toward precision fertilization. Effective subsidy reform will require addressing broader supply- and demand-side constraints, including input availability, farmer familiarity with recommended products, and the practical implementation of site-specific recommendations, not only improving agronomic information.