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IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, December 2024

Highlights
Retail prices of maize increased by 15 percent in December.
Maize prices were lowest in the Northern region, where informal imports from Tanzania enter the country, and increased southward.
At the market exchange rate, retail prices of maize in Malawi were similar to those in Zambia and lower than in Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

The political economy of food self sufficiency policies and food security in African countries

Food security deteriorated in Africa during the past decade, and the number of undernourished people has been increasing since 2010. The prevalence of undernourishment is now above pre-pandemic levelsat 9.7% compared with 7.2% in 2019, and Africa reports the highest level in the world. External factors, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have contributed to this increase Projections show that almost 600 million people in Africa will be chronically undernourished in 2030. Moreover, Africa is not on track for SDG2, eradicate hunger by 2030. To achieve food security and reduce the number of undernourished people, many policymakers are advocating for food self-sufficiency. Relying on local production and promoting it through various policy measures, including restrictive trade policies, appears to many to be a natural solution. Yet, there has been a long-standing debate among analysts as to whether trade restrictions are a good strategy, especially in Africa, to achieve food security. The proponents of food self-sufficiency argue that trade liberalization increases food dependency (and import bills) and makes consumers vulnerable to external shocks in food availability, as well as exposing them to unhealthy foods. They advocate for stimulating local production with subsidies and trade restrictions. For the opponents, opening borders to international trade is a guarantee of cheap and easy access to diversified food products. Furthermore, by partially decoupling local markets from domestic shocks, trade can also help stabilize domestic food markets. This report contributes to that debate. Using both qualitative and quantitative analysis, we reach the conclusion that food self-sufficiency is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for food security. Food security is a multidimensional concept, and only two dimensions– availability and utilization—seem to be affected by food self-sufficiency in Africa. Also, while public support to agriculture can help achieve food self-sufficiency, its impact is not linear, and beyond a certain threshold, diminishing returns are observed. Overall, different approaches can achieve food security, and there is no “one-size-fits-all strategy.” International or regional trade can contribute to food security and stabilize domestic food markets, as regional production is usually less volatile than domestic supply.

Do youth work in agriculture? Short-term dynamics of on-farm rural youth employment in Tanzania and Malawi

Levelling the field: A review of the ICT revolution and agricultural extension in the Global South

Information and communications technology has evolved significantly over the last seven decades, beginning with radio and video vans and culminating in the rise of smartphones and mobile internet in remote areas of the Global South. While ICT is an integral part of agricultural extension, little is known about how these changes have influenced agricultural extension practices. After a systematic review of 131 papers, we find that changes in ICT have shaped agricultural extension, enabling a shift from linear dissemination and “one-way communication” to co-innovation and farmer-to-farmer learning. The results indicate the potential for smartphones and mobile internet to democratize agricultural extension.

Neonatal mortality risk of vulnerable newborns by fine stratum of gestational age and birthweight for 230 679 live births in nine low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2017.

Objective
We aimed to understand the mortality risks of vulnerable newborns (defined as preterm and/or born weighing smaller or larger compared to a standard population), in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Design
Descriptive multi-country, secondary analysis of individual-level study data of babies born since 2000.

Setting
Sixteen subnational, population-based studies from nine LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Latin America.

Population
Live birth neonates.

Methods
We categorically defined five vulnerable newborn types based on size (large- or appropriate- or small-for-gestational age [LGA, AGA, SGA]), and term (T) and preterm (PT): T + LGA, T + SGA, PT + LGA, PT + AGA, and PT + SGA, with T + AGA (reference). A 10-type definition included low birthweight (LBW) and non-LBW, and a four-type definition collapsed AGA/LGA into one category. We performed imputation for missing birthweights in 13 of the studies.

Main Outcome Measures
Median and interquartile ranges by study for the prevalence, mortality rates and relative mortality risks for the four, six and ten type classification.

Results
There were 238 143 live births with known neonatal status. Four of the six types had higher mortality risk: T + SGA (median relative risk [RR] 2.8, interquartile range [IQR] 2.0–3.2), PT + LGA (median RR 7.3, IQR 2.3–10.4), PT + AGA (median RR 6.0, IQR 4.4–13.2) and PT + SGA (median RR 10.4, IQR 8.6–13.9). T + SGA, PT + LGA and PT + AGA babies who were LBW, had higher risk compared with non-LBW babies.

Conclusions
Small and/or preterm babies in LIMCs have a considerably increased mortality risk compared with babies born at term and larger. This classification system may advance the understanding of the social determinants and biomedical risk factors along with improved treatment that is critical for newborn health.

Diets, fruit and vegetables consumption, and nutritional status in Benin: A scoping review

Unhealthy diets, including low fruit and vegetables (F&V) intake, contribute to morbidity and mortality related to non-communicable diseases. Designing culturally appropriate interventions to improve diets and F&V intake requires an in-depth understanding of individual-level dietary patterns, household consumption patterns, and nutritional status resulting from inadequate F&V intake. In this scoping review, we summarised the literature on diets, F&V intake, and nutritional status in Benin. We searched PubMed from 2012 to August 2024 to identify articles on diets and nutritional status, and from 2002 to August 2024 to identify articles on F&V intake. We included 36 articles on diets, 27 on F&V intake, and 16 on nutritional status. Existing literature demonstrated that Beninese diets are cereal-based and monotonous, characterised by low diversity and low F&V intake across all population groups. Available evidence indicated a high burden of undernutrition in children <5 years of age, a rising prevalence of overnutrition in women of reproductive age, and a high prevalence of overnutrition in adults. Evidence on how diets and F&V intake vary by urban/rural location, season, and socioeconomic characteristics was limited and inconsistent. Two evaluations of garden irrigation programmes assessed impacts on women's dietary diversity and F&V consumption. Additional research is needed to improve our understanding of diets, F&V intake, and diet-related nutritional challenges and how they evolve over time and across different population groups. Understanding these gaps can help identify entry points and targets for interventions to improve diet quality and F&V intake in Benin.

Using a list experiment to measure intimate partner violence: Cautionary evidence from Ethiopia

While indirect response methods are increasingly used in surveys to measure sensitive behaviours such as intimate partner violence, important questions persist around how respondents understand and react to these methods. This article presents evidence from a list experiment measuring multiple forms of intimate partner violence in rural Ethiopia. We find that the list experiment does not generate estimates of intimate partner violence that are higher than direct response questions; rather, prevalence estimates using the list experiment are lower vis-à-vis prevalence estimates using the direct reports, and are sometimes even negative. We provide suggestive evidence that this pattern may reflect ‘fleeing’ behaviour by respondents who do not wish to be associated with statements indicating their exposure to intimate partner violence.

Conflicts, crop choice, and agricultural investments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

Conflict remains a major driver of poverty in Africa. Conflicts and political instability in the region have been increasing recently and are drawing more attention in public discourse. While it is widely acknowledged that conflicts disrupt agricultural production and food systems, the full extent of the damage inflicted on the lives and livelihoods of farming households and the mechanisms to redress this harm remain poorly understood. In particular, the link between violent conflicts and households’ land allocation and related agricultural investment decisions remains understudied. In this study, we use geocoded longitudinal data along with detailed agricultural panel household surveys in Nigeria to assess the impact of violent conflicts on crop choice decisions and related agricultural investments. Specifically, we explore how farmers’ land allocation and agricultural investment decisions relate or respond to the outbreak and intensity of violent conflicts. We find that violent conflicts are associated with a reduction in the share of both land area cultivated and area harvested. We also find suggestive evidence that violent conflicts may shape farmers’ crop choices and related investments, as violent conflicts are associated with reduction in the share of land allocated to long-term crops (e.g., perennial crops, trees, roots and tubers). Overall, our findings suggest that violent conflicts can negatively influence farmers’ agricultural investments directly by affecting both land utilization patterns and portfolio allocation across activities with varying returns to investments.

Shocks and stability of risk and time preferences among poor rural households in Ethiopia

This paper examines the effects of shocks on temporal stability of risk and time preferences of rural households within a developing country context characterized by frequent droughts, chronic food insecurity, and low levels of education. Leveraging a three-wave large and diverse household panel data that elicits preferences every two years for more than 6,500 individuals from over 5,600 sample rural households in Ethiopia, we analyze the effects of droughts (self-reported) and rainfall shortfalls on household risk and time preferences. Our findings show that households become more risk-averse and impatient after experiencing drought and rainfall shocks; the change in risk preferences is more notable among households that experience recurrent droughts and multiple covariate shocks during the same period.

Assessing global price shocks and mitigation policies on welfare and food security in Nigeria

Variations in agricultural and energy prices have direct and cascading effects on economic and agri-food systems. In this study, we developed a dynamic general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of the global price shocks induced by the Russia-Ukraine war on welfare and food security in Nigeria. In addition, we analysed the effectiveness of different policy options, specifically a reduction in indirect taxes and an increase in cash transfers to affected households, in the short and long term. The results showed that the shocks create opportunities for Nigeria, particularly in the trade, livestock, and agricultural sectors. This leads to an increase in GDP, employment, and incomes. However, these effects fade over time due to the rise in food prices that negatively affects food consumption and some food security indicators. Moreover, the comparative analysis of mitigation scenarios revealed that targeted public cash transfers to households are more effective than reduction in consumption taxes on food in mitigating the negative effects on households.

The costs of a multisectoral nutrition program implemented through a poultry value chain platform in Burkina Faso

Undernutrition in women and young children in Burkina Faso is a critical problem. Egg consumption is low despite many households raising poultry. The Soutenir l'Exploitation Familiale pour Lancer l'Élevage des Volailles et Valoriser l'Économie Rurale (SELEVER) project, an integrated agriculture-nutrition intervention, promoted egg consumption and sales to investigate the impact of poultry production on child nutrition. Multisectoral nutrition-sensitive agriculture programs address nutrition deficits but lack comparable cost information. This study estimates the costs of the SELEVER program, an integrated poultry and nutrition intervention. The study estimates the program's economic costs using a standardized methodology from the Strengthening Economic Evaluation for Multisectoral Strategies for Nutrition (SEEMS-Nutrition) consortium, which aligns financial and economic costs along program impact pathways, allocating costs by activities and inputs. We conducted qualitative interviews and focus groups on time allocation and beneficiary out-of-pocket costs. Incremental economic costs were calculated by combining expenditures and economic costs. The total incremental program cost was USD$18,084,727.68 over 5 years, with annual incremental costs of USD$209.20 per direct beneficiary and $796.26 per household. Major cost drivers included overhead (18%), poultry extension (17%), training (16%), household counseling (7%), technical assistance (7%) and microcredit (6%). Total input costs were dominated by personnel (51%), supplies (13%), agricultural inputs (10%) and overhead (9%). We present the total incremental costs of a multisectoral nutrition intervention to generate revenue with poultry. The costs per beneficiary were higher than similar interventions, underscoring the need for cost-effectiveness evaluations of multisectoral nutrition programs. A standardized cost methodology facilitates comparisons with multisectoral nutrition interventions and builds the evidence base.

Rural underemployment and urbanisation: Insights from a 9-year panel from Malawi

Rural labour markets in Africa are frequently characterised by underemployment, with farmers unable to fully deploy throughout the year one of their most important assets—their labour. Using a nine-year panel data set on 1,407 working-age adults from rural Malawi, we document changes in rural underemployment over this period and how they are associated with urbanisation. Nearby urban growth is linked to increased hours worked in casual labour (ganyu) and in non-agricultural sectors, at the expense of work on the household farm. Improved urban access is also associated with a small increase in wage labour and, at the intensive margin, with hours supplied in household enterprises. We draw lessons from these results for policies, investments and interventions to leverage urban growth for rural development.

Men can cook: Effectiveness of a men’s engagement intervention to change attitudes and behaviors in rural Ethiopia

Graduation model interventions seek to address multiple barriers constraining households’ exit from poverty, however, few explicitly target restrictive gender norms. Using a randomized controlled trial design, combined with three rounds of data, we investigate the impacts on gender equitable attitudes and behaviors of a graduation program that seeks to address multiple constraints for those in poverty and improve restrictive gender norms in Ethiopia. We find that at 1-year follow-up all treatment arms lead to improvements in men’s gender equitable attitudes and their engagement in household domestic tasks as reported by both men and women; but at 3-year follow-up, impacts are only sustained in the treatment arms that introduced men’s engagement groups after the 1-year follow-up survey to further promote improvements in equitable gender norms.

Using best-worst scaling to inform agroecological interventions in Western Kenya

Both the demand for food and the environmental impacts of food production are estimated to significantly increase by 2050. Agroecological interventions have proven effective in facilitating the transition from current food production systems to more sustainable ones. These interventions can not only ensure more equitable food and nutritional security but also address poverty and reduce environmental impacts. As such, agroecological interventions can generate both private and public ecosystem services. Farmers play a key role in how food is produced, as the practices they use are linked with their preferences and expertise, as well as the constraints they face. Understanding farmers’ preferences for the adoption of different agroecological practices and their perceptions of the associated costs and benefits is critical to informing policies that can effectively support farmers in transitioning to more sustainable practices, including those that contribute to the generation of ecosystem services highly valued by broader society. To assess such preferences, we conducted a survey among farmers in Western Kenya which included a best-worst scaling experiment augmented by qualitative questions about the reasons for farmers’ views about the importance of the benefits arising from agroecological practices. Results show that farmers have strong preferences for adopting agroecological practices that generate private goods and are directly related to increasing productivity and food security, including improving health of household members. These may also include practices that have some public good elements as well, such as increasing agrobiodiversity. However, practices that generate broader public good benefits, including improved forest quality/coverage, reduced off-farm environmental impacts, greater community-level resilience to shocks, and improved landscape and wildlife management, were less important to farmers. Such findings can be used to inform policies that support farmer adoption of agroecological interventions best suited to different farming communities, as well as indicating the need for additional types of market-based incentives, such as through Payments for Ecosystem Service mechanisms.

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Evaluating the gendered credit constraints and uptake of an insurance-linked credit product among smallholder farmers in Kenya

To defer or to differ: Experimental evidence on the role of cash transfers in Nigerian couples’ decision–making

What do urban consumers want? Findings from a discrete choice experiment on the preference for locally produced staple food in Central Africa: Evidence from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

Does participation in mining activities affect the profitability of food crops production? Evidence from Ghana

Identification, characterization, and determinants of dietary patterns of low-income urban adults in Vietnam and Nigeria

Understanding dietary patterns and their determinants can steer efforts to food systems transformations required to provide sustainable healthy diets. Based on 24-h recall data and using latent class analysis, we characterized dietary patterns of adults from low-income neighborhoods in Hanoi, Vietnam and Ibadan, Nigeria (n = 385 and 344, age 18–49 years). We examined sociodemographic determinants and diet quality (diversity, non-communicable disease risk, and micronutrient adequacy) of these patterns. Three dietary patterns were identified in each country. Vietnamese patterns differed in sociodemographic characteristics and diet quality. Nigerian patterns differed in diet quality but not in sociodemographics. Understanding different consumer groups and the drivers of consumption helps to identify tailored interventions to diversify diets and improve diet quality.

Unpacking power dynamics and women's economic empowerment in polygynous households in Burkina Faso

Objective
We aim to describe power distributions in polygynous households and consider how these matter for the production and allocation of food-generating resources in western Burkina Faso, where there is a high prevalence of polygyny.

Background
Recent studies on polygyny focus on its likely negative consequences and mechanisms for explaining these outcomes using data from large multitopic surveys. These approaches fail to consider the underlying dynamics in polygynous households.

Method
As part of a 5-year mixed-methods evaluation of a nutrition- and gender-sensitive poultry value chain intervention in western Burkina Faso, we conducted a thematic analysis of 24 gender-disaggregated focus group discussions (265 individuals) and 24 semi-structured interviews in six communities. They focused on gender and power dynamics, food production, and food allocation with a specific focus on polygyny.

Results
Relationships among co-wives are often cooperative, though not necessarily warm, and typically hierarchical. Monogamous and polygynous marriage may support women's empowerment in different domains. Polygynous co-wives may be able to divide care work, but first wives often control how labor is divided. In monogamous marriages, wives often make decisions jointly with their husbands, while in polygynous marriages, most co-wives are left out of decisions. In polygynous households, women are better able to maintain control over their earnings.

Conclusion
We discuss these findings in terms of their implications for studying polygynous households in quantitative surveys and in terms of how to better design and target interventions for this population.

Menarche and pubertal progression: A cross-sectional analysis of timing and influencing factors in North-Eastern Ghana

Menarche and pubertal onset vary across populations but understanding age-at-menarche (AAM) and pubertal growth tempo is limited in low-income settings. Identifying factors influencing pubertal development is vital for creating targeted health and education programmes supporting adolescent girls’ well-being. Baseline data (n = 1045) from the Ten2Twenty-Ghana study were analysed to examine menarche attainment, pubertal development, AAM, and the associated factors among girls aged 10-17 years in the Mion district, Ghana. The data collection methods included anthropometry, body composition, haemoglobin status, a qualitative 24-hour dietary recall, a food frequency questionnaire, and a pubertal development score (PDS). Binary logistic and linear regression analyses were used to model odds ratios for menarche attainment and regression coefficients for AAM and PDS. About 19.9% of the girls had experienced menarche, with a mean AAM of 13.4 ± 1.5 years. Among post-menarche girls (n = 205/1045), 12.2% and 15.1% experienced early (AAM < 12 years) and late menarche (AAM < 15 years), respectively. The mean PDS was 1.8 ± 0.7 out of 4. Among the adolescent girls, 36.2% were prepubertal, 17.0% early –pubertal, 18.6% mid-pubertal, 27.9% late pubertal, and less than 1% were in the post-pubertal stage. An increase in fat mass (FM), fat-free mass (FFM), height-for-age-z-score (HAZ), and body mass index-for-age-z-score (BAZ) was observed with puberty progression, but a steep decline in HAZ was noticed for girls in late puberty, increasing again post-puberty. Being older (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.06, 95% C.I.: 1.83, 2.31), stunted (AOR= 0.20, 95% C.I.: 0.10, 0.40), thin (AOR = 0.30, 95% C.I.: 0.11, 0.80), and overweight/obese (AOR = 7.29, 95% C.I.: 2.60, 20.43) were the significant predictors of menarche attainment. Being older (β = 0.39, P < 0.0001), stunted (β= -0.92, P = 0.01), thin (β = 1.25, P = 0.01), and having a literate mother (β = -0.72, P = 0.03) were significantly associated with AMM. A higher HAZ, FM, FFM, age, and Konkomba ethnicity were positively associated with higher PDS. This study highlights the complexity of factors influencing menarche and pubertal development. These insights are essential for developing targeted health and educational programmes that address nutritional and socio-demographic disparities to promote adolescent girls’ well-being and healthy pubertal development.

Short-term and long-term effects of cash for work: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial in Tunisia

JEL Classification: O12, O15

PEDAL Country Snapshot: Madagascar

Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) helps combat micronutrient deficiencies by adding essential vitamins and minerals to staple foods. This PEDAL assessment identifies key priorities for Madagascar by evaluating its political will and implementation capacity for LSFF. For more information about PEDAL and the detailed Madagascar case study, please see PEDAL for Madagascar brief.

Vulnerability of Nigerian maize traders to a confluence of climate, violence, disease and cost shocks

Purpose
We study five exogenous shocks: climate, violence, price hikes, spoilage and the COVID-19 lockdown. We analyze the association between these shocks and trader characteristics, reflecting trader vulnerability.

Design/methodology/approach
Using primary survey data on 1,100 Nigerian maize traders for 2021 (controlling for shocks in 2017), we use probit models to estimate the probabilities of experiencing climate, violence, disease and cost shocks associated with trader characteristics (gender, size and region) and to estimate the probability of vulnerability (experiencing severe impacts).

Findings
Traders are prone to experiencing more than one shock, which increases the intensity of the shocks. Price shocks are often accompanied by violence, climate and COVID-19 shocks. The poorer northern region is disproportionately affected by shocks. Northern traders experience more price shocks while Southern traders are more affected by violence shocks given their dependence on long supply chains from the north for their maize. Female traders are more likely to experience violent events than men who tend to be more exposed to climate shocks.

Research limitations/implications
The data only permit analysis of the general degree of impact of a shock rather than quantifying lost income.

Originality/value
This paper is the first to analyze the incidence of multiple shocks on grain traders and the unequal distribution of negative impacts. It is the first such in Africa based on a large sample of grain traders from a primary survey.

Farm size and agricultural productivity of nutritious foods: Evidence from Ethiopia

Agri-food systems are transforming quickly in Africa. An important issue in the transformation process of agricultural production is the role of small farms. While many authors have looked at this question, one aspect that has received little attention is the role of small farms in the production of nutritious foods, an important topic given the low availability and relatively high prices of nutritious foods and the consequent low level of nutrition security in the continent. Using a unique large-scale dataset from Ethiopia—one of the largest countries in Africa that has been transforming rapidly—we look at the production of vegetables and dairy products. We find a strong association between farm size and partial productivity measured in terms of output, value of outputs and profit per hectare/cow, with productivity twice to four times as high for larger farms. These farms have substantially higher input expenditures as well as differences in farm technologies compared to small ones. Our findings have important implications for the debate on the role of small farms and nutritional improvements in the continent.

JEL Classification: O13, Q12, Q18

Capabilities assessment to support food systems transformation towards sustainable healthy diets in Ethiopia

Collaborative governance processes are increasingly recognized as critical for normative food systems transformation (FST) globally. For instance, collective action and multistakeholder partnerships is one of the main levers of change stated in Ethiopia’s Food Systems Roadmap. The collaborative processes bring together government, private actors, and citizens in collective forums and networks to engage in long-term, goal-oriented decision making and implementation (Ansell and Gash 2008), for example, change towards sustainable healthy diets and better planetary health for all populations. Forming and maintaining collaborative governance processes entail navigating different challenges attributed to the inherently dynamic nature of such partnerships.

Does labelling differentiate products and create price premiums? The case of tomatoes from northeast Nigeria

This note describes a labelling experiment introduced to crates of tomatoes cool transported from the northeast region of Nigeria to Lagos or Port Harcourt. A label was attached to a random sample of crates to ensure that the quality of tomatoes is orthogonal to the labels and the destination market was not informed of the experiment. The label contained the information on (a) the project (IFPRI), (b) the transportation method (cool transportation), and (c) the origin of tomatoes (Jos or Gombe), as shown below. The experiment was conducted in the first rounds from Jos and Gombe (Lagos), and the fifth round from Jos (Port Harcourt). As expected, the labeled crates were priced higher than the unlabeled crates. About 9 to 33% of the sale price is attributed to improved information on the quality of tomatoes via the labels.

Leveraging the role of MSMEs for healthier diets and nutrition: Insights from fruit and vegetable value chain studies across five countries

In most low and middle-income countries (LMICs) the food system falls short in providing sufficient amounts of healthy foods to a burgeoning population. The growing awareness of how food systems are stressing planetary boundaries and failing to provide sustainable healthy diets and livelihoods has prompted the widespread call to transform the global food system (Béné 2022; FAO et al. 2020, 2024; Webb et al. 2020). Transforming food systems requires engaging various groups of actors with diverse perspectives and challenges (Leeuwis et al. 2021), including setting up alliances with the informal sector (Brouwer & Ruben 2021) and a strengthened focus on the role of micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).

Globally, MSMEs represent about 90 percent of all businesses and account for 60 to 70 percent of employment and 50 percent of GDP. In the current food system, by being present at all value chain stages and better linking small-scale farmers to markets, MSMEs can offer affordable food to both urban and rural areas, create jobs and opportunities for young and female entrepreneurs, and support sustainable, circular food practices (IFAD 2021). These promises can be fulfilled if certain barriers that can hinder their contributions, such as high rates of food loss and waste (FLW), food safety concerns, and the uncertain informal context in which the majority of them operate are addressed (Termeer et al. 2024).

Integrating consumer traits is key to increasing uptake of improved crop varieties: Evidence and policy insights from seed sample packs and cooking events in Uganda

 Semi-subsistence farmers in developing countries often play dual roles as both consumers and producers of the same crops. Consequently, decisions regarding crop selection are influenced by a com bination of household consumption needs and market-oriented considerations.
 In this policy note, we summarize findings from a field experiment suggesting that integrating con sumption-oriented traits such as taste, color, and ease of cooking alongside production advantages is crucial for driving demand for improved crop varieties.
 The field experiment consists of two interventions designed to enhance the adoption of improved maize seed varieties among smallholder farmers in eastern Uganda. The first intervention involves providing farmers with free seed sample packs to plant and directly experience the production related benefits, such as higher yield potential and drought resistance. The second intervention consists of organizing cooking demonstrations and blind tasting sessions to compare maize from improved variety with local varieties, focusing on consumption traits like palatability, texture, and ease of cooking.
 We find that the seed sample packs significantly enhance farmers' perceptions of the seed's production traits, while the cooking demonstrations improve appreciation for its consumption traits. We also find that the cooking demonstration and tasting session increased the use of fresh Bazooka seed, with some indications that this also led to higher maize productivity. On the other hand, farmers who received the sample packs are more likely to reuse/recycle the grain harvested from the sample pack as seed in the subsequent season, essentially crowding out the demand for fresh/purchased seed. We argue that this may be a rational response in the context of positive transaction costs related to the use of improved seed varieties

Nature-positive agriculture for people and the planet: A qualitative analysis from Kenya

Agricultural intensification that prioritizes profits over people and the environment is increasingly recognized as harmful to people’s wellbeing and the sustainability and resilience of smallholder farming systems. Nature-based solutions are part of nature-positive eco-agrifood systems and are critical for restoring ecosystems and preventing further biodiversity loss and environmental degradation during a climate crisis. To support more widespread adoption of nature-based solutions, it is important to understand dynamics within local communities where these solutions will be applied. This includes deeper understanding of environmental challenges, institutional and governance arrangements, current farming practices, gender relations, and perceptions of nature-based solutions. This study draws on qualitative data on these topics collected from smallholder farmers and key informants in three counties of Kenya. The discussion centers on the potential for nature-based practices to place agricultural production systems on a more sustainable path.

Farming under fire: The interplay of armed conflict and climate-induced weather disruptions in agricultural input use

The recent surge in violent conflicts, intertwined with climate-induced drought risks, is jeopardizing decades of development progress in many low- and middle-income countries. This study investigates the compounded effects of armed conflicts and climate-induced disruptions on agricultural input use in Ethiopia, a country experiencing significant fragility due to both factors. Using a unique household- and plot-level panel dataset collected before (2019) and after (2023) the onset of a widespread conflict, we examine how these disruptions affect the use of key agricultural inputs, such as inorganic fertilizers, improved seeds, agrochemicals, compost, and manure. The analysis reveals that exposure to conflict significantly reduces the likelihood of using both inorganic and organic inputs. Conflict-affected households are 9 percentage points less likely to use both inorganic fertilizers and improved seeds, and 14 percentage points less likely to use organic fertilizers, such as compost and manure. Exposure to recurrent rainfall variability by inducing uncertainty of use of inputs further exacerbates these negative impacts, reducing fertilizer use by an additional 3 percent among drought-exposed households. These findings highlight the multifaceted challenges faced by smallholder farmers in fragile settings, where both conflict and environmental stressors undermine agricultural productivity and threaten food security. The study underscores the need for targeted anticipatory (pre-conflict) and resilience building (post-conflict) interventions to support resilience in agricultural practices within conflict-affected regions, particularly those facing climate-induced weather risks.

Stakeholder feedback on a slaughterhouse hygiene intervention in western Kenya

The intervention implemented evaluated through the Improving Hygiene Practices in Slaughterhouses in Western Kenya study (Ambler, et al., 2024) aimed to address poor hygiene practices in slaughterhouses, which contribute to foodborne illnesses and unsafe meat. Conducted in 140 slaughterhouses across 6 counties in Western Kenya, the intervention focused on training workers, provision of basic hygiene equipment, and the use of monetary incentives to improve compliance with recommended hygiene practices. After the intervention period, key informant interviews (KIIs) were conducted with stakeholders including six County Directors of Veterinary Services (CDVSs), nine sub-county veterinary Officers (SCVOs), one Public Health Officer (PHO), and ten meat inspectors (MIs).

This report summarizes findings from the KIIs regarding perspectives on the intervention, sustainability, challenges with implementation, and provides a basis for recommendations on refining and scaling up or this approach.

Effect of organic fertilizer use on crop yield and soil health in maize production in Kenya

Sub-Saharan Africa faces an elevated risk of food insecurity. The agricultural sector in Sub-Saharan African countries encounters significant challenges in increasing crop production to meet the ever-growing food demand driven by population growth and economic development. Nutrient management is a critical component of crop production, yet nutrient input levels in the region are notably low. In many areas of cropland, nutrient balances are in deficit (Liu et al., 2010). At the recent Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Summit, African leaders pledged to strengthen nutrient management practices to enhance food production through increased fertilizer use. Fertilizers can be categorized into different types. Most discussions on fertilizer policy to date have focused on inorganic fertilizers, which are produced through industrial processes. In contrast, organic fertilizers are derived from naturally occurring materials. The use of organic fertilizers may offer additional long-term benefits, particularly for improving soil health. Notably, soil organic carbon is a key indicator of soil health, and organic fertilizers, being rich in carbon, can contribute to increasing soil carbon content. A study was conducted to evaluate the impact of organic fertilizers on crop productivity and soil health, focusing on maize production in Kenya. Maize is the primary staple crop in Kenya, with a harvested area of 2.1 million hectares, representing about 40% of the total harvested area for all crops in the country (FAOSTAT). Maize is also the largest consumer of fertilizers in Kenya. It is estimated that maize cultivation uses 2.8 million tons of fertilizers annually, accounting for approximately 50% of the country's total fertilizer consumption. Fertilizers are applied on about 70% of the maize-planted area (IFDC & AFAP, 2018). However, the average maize yield in Kenya remains low, at less than 2 metric tons per hectare (FAOSTAT), indicating suboptimal management practices or inadequate input levels, including insufficient fertilizer use (De Groote, 2023).

Evaluating hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change uncertainties

Hydropower and irrigation development on the Nile in Sudan can help meet growing food and energy needs. However, these potential infrastructures must be evaluated considering climate change uncertainties and multisector socioeconomic trade-offs. Increased streamflow combined with the recently constructed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam would provide reliable irrigation water supplies in Sudan under most climate change scenarios but there are distributional impacts.

Strengthening women’s voice and agency in Nigeria: Evidence from a randomized control trial on women’s advocacy and men’s allyship trainings

This policy brief presents insights from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) conducted across three states of southwestern Nigeria (Oyo, Ogun, and Osun), examining the effectiveness of advocacy and leadership training for women, along with allyship training for men (their husbands), in improving women’s voice and agency in community governance. With over 5,800 women participants across 450 communities, this study tested whether training women alone, as well as whether training them in tandem (though in separate sessions) with their husbands, can increase women’s political participation in local governance or the responsiveness of local leaders to women’s priorities. We show causal improvements in both when women are trained and chart out emerging policy lessons.

Formative study on slaughterhouse hygiene in Western Kenya: Summary Report

Slaughterhouses in Western Kenya face critical challenges, including inadequate hygiene practices, poor infrastructure, insufficient water supply, and weak enforcement of regulatory standards. These deficiencies contribute to meat contamination and the transmission of zoonotic diseases such as Rift Valley Fever, brucellosis, and anthrax, as well as foodborne pathogens such as Salmonella sp. and pathogenic E.coli. Globally, foodborne illnesses result in millions of illnesses and hundreds of thousands of deaths annually, particularly among children under five. The public health and economic consequences of these risks in low and middle-income countries are significant (Havelaar et al., 2015; Jaffee et al., 2018). A qualitative study, based on interviews of key informants in the slaughter industry in Western Kenya and associated regulatory authorities, was undertaken in 2022 to document the state of slaughterhouse infrastructure and practices, explore barriers to compliance with regulatory standards, and identify practical solutions for improving conditions and enabling safer meat handling practices. This report summarizes the findings of that study and presents recommendations for interventions to improve slaughter hygiene practices.

Baseline analysis for an impact evaluation of a home-grown school feeding program in Osun State, Nigeria to support smallholder farmers

Home-Grown School Feeding Programs (HGSFPs) are becoming important policy instruments to improve food security, nutrition, education, agricultural production, and local economic growth (Adeyanju et al., 2024; Abay et al., 2021; Sitali, 2021; Takeshima et al., 2018; Fernandes et al., 2016; Karisa and Ordho, 2014; WFP, 2013). While the potential of HGFSPs to tackle undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies is well documented (Alderman, Bundy, Gelli, 2024), their role in supporting local value chains and smallholder farmers remains an area of active inquiry. Following international trends and lessons, Nigeria started delivering HGSFP which includes utilizing locally sourced foods instead of imports (Dennis et al., 2021). These programs provide school meals using locally sourced food from smallholder farmers within the same community (Sumberg & Sabates-Wheeler, 2011). In 2004, Nigeria’s National HGSFP was piloted in 12 states, covering all six geopolitical zones. However, the national government abruptly halted the program, with Osun relaunching the program in 2012 using state-level funds. Osun State is currently the only Nigerian state that implements the program—and considered one of the more successful states for implementing it. Despite stoppages of the program, lessons learned from the pilot phase offered valuable operational and policy insights for implementing the National HGSFP in 2016, with the aim of using farm produce locally grown by smallholder farmers to provide children with nutritious mid-day meals on every school day (Adeyanju et al., 2024).

Impacts of personalized picture-based crop advisories: Experimental evidence from India and Kenya

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has heightened interest in digital models to strengthen agricultural extension. Such tools could help provide personalized advisories tailored to a farmer's unique conditions at scale and at a low cost. This study evaluates the fundamental assumption that personalized crop advisories are more effective than generic ones. By means of a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT), we assess the impact of personalized picture-based advisories on farmers’ perceptions, knowledge and adoption of recommended inputs and practices, and other downstream outcomes. We find that personalizing advisories does not significantly improve agricultural outcomes compared to generic ones. While farmers who engage relatively more with advisories (i.e., those who receive and read a substantial number of messages based on self-reports) tend to achieve better outcomes, this is irrespective of whether the advisories they receive are tailored to their specific situation or not. We conclude that investments in digital extension tools should aim to enhance engagement with advisories rather than focusing solely on personalization.

Enhancing women’s economic empowerment in rural Nigeria through advocacy trainings

This policy brief shares quantitative results from a project examining the effectiveness of advocacy and leadership training for women, along with allyship training for men (their husbands), in improving women’s economic outcomes. We share insights from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) conducted across three states of southwestern Nigeria (Oyo, Ogun, and Osun) involving over 5,800 women participants from 450 communities. We causally test whether training women alone, as well as whether training them in tandem (though in separate sessions) with their husbands, can increase women’s access to and investments in livelihood opportunities. While the trainings were designed to train women in the skills needed for engaging in the local policy process in rural communities in Nigeria and to train their husbands on the benefits of women’s participation in community affairs as well as in how to practically support their wives’ participation, we posit that increased efficacy combined with advocacy skills and husbands’ support could additionally have profound economic spillovers. Indeed, we show causal improvements in these outcomes when women are trained and present some emerging policy lessons.

Assessing the gender dimensions in the true costs of food production in Kenya

Key takeaways:
Gender-based environmental and social external costs create substantial economic inefficiencies in the agricultural sector.
The gender wage gap contributes 12.8% to total external costs.
Women's limited access to resources leads to reduced productivity, with female farmers investing 36% less in inputs than their male counterparts.
Workplace harassment, which disproportionately affects women, accounts for 10.8% of total external costs.
Unequal land management practices (women managing smaller plots) and having restricted access to improved agricultural inputs create additional inefficiencies in resource allocation and production outcomes.

Impact of a slaughterhouse hygiene intervention in western Kenya

Adherence to strict hygiene standards in slaughterhouses is critical for ensuring food safety and protecting workers from zoonotic disease. The International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) conducted a study to evaluate the impact of low-cost interventions on hygiene practices in slaughterhouses in western Kenya.

Impact of conflict on employment, income, and household welfare in Sudan

Sudan has been embroiled in a high-intensity conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023, leading to widespread displacement and an escalating humanitarian crisis. This conflict, centered on Khartoum, an economic hub contributing nearly one-third of Sudan's GDP, has caused unprecedented economic and social upheaval. As of December 2024, over 12 million1 people have been displaced, and fatalities have exceeded 29,6002. Sudan's GDP has contracted sharply, with estimates from the IMF, World Bank, and African Development Bank projecting declines of 18.3% to 37.5% in 2023 alone, compounded by further drops in 2024. Unemployment has surged from 32% in 2022 to 46% in 2023, with household incomes declining nearly 50% relative to pre-conflict levels. Urban households, especially in Khartoum, have been disproportionately affected due to the destruction of infrastructure and loss of industrial jobs, while rural households face severe disruptions in agriculture and access to essential inputs. The conflict has strained household welfare systems and exacerbated food insecurity, with many families increasingly reliant on remittances and humanitarian aid to meet basic needs. These dynamics underscore the urgent need for effective policy interventions to address both immediate humanitarian needs and long-term recovery challenges.

The effects of conflict-induced migration on food security and health related outcomes in Sudan: From displacement to despair

This study investigates the socioeconomic effects of conflict-induced migration in Sudan, focusing on the food security and access to healthcare of displaced households. Triggered by the civil conflict that started in April 2023, the recent widespread displacement of households has intensified vulnerabilities across the country. Using three datasets—the pre conflict 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey and two surveys conducted during the conflict, the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey—the research examines the impacts on household food security and healthcare access of migration driven by conflict. The study employs inverse probability weighting to estimate the causal impacts of migration, leveraging data from over 12,000 households. The key impact indicators at the household level were the Food Insecurity Experience Scale score and, as a measure of healthcare access, any incidence of illness in the household. Analysis shows that migration induced by conflict exacerbates food insecurity, with over 90 percent of rural households and nearly 80 percent of urban households reporting moderate to severe food insecurity. Rural households face additional challenges as displacement disrupts agricultural livelihoods and access to markets. Migration also worsens healthcare access, particularly in rural areas where displaced households experience a higher likelihood of illness. For urban households, migration fails to alleviate their healthcare challenges due to the collapse of urban healthcare systems. The study calls for urgent policy interventions, including targeted food aid and mobile healthcare services. Restoring healthcare infrastructure, expanding social protection mechanisms, and fostering peacebuilding efforts are critical to mitigating future displacement and supporting socioeconomic recovery. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and humanitarian actors to address the immediate and long-term needs of displaced populations in Sudan.

Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions

Amid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP's impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program's potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty.

Do public works investments in watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation improve nutrition and resilience? Evidence from bureau for humanitarian assistance interventions in support of Ethiopia’s productive safety net program

Between 2017 and 2021, the Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) of the United States Agency for International Development supported public works in the areas of watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation under Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). The investments aimed to improve food security and nutrition and to increase the resilience capacities of households through improved natural resource systems and asset development. However, there is little evidence about how these water-related investments supported household food security, nutritional outcomes, and resilience. This study used a mixed-methods approach to fill some of these knowledge gaps. Econometric results show that households in BHA intervention areas had smaller food gaps, and this association is statistically significant. Similarly, households that adopted small-scale irrigation and water harvesting techniques on their own plots show significantly better nutritional outcomes than those that did not. The results further suggest that in general the households in BHA areas are more resilient than those in non-BHA woredas. However, higher resilience capacities are associated with agricultural water management on own plots rather than with public works in communal lands. Thus, if household security, nutrition and resilience are key goals of program interventions, then programs need to grow intentionality in developing assets, and particularly irrigation.

Real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth: An empirical analysis for Ethiopia

In both developing and developed economies, academic and policy discussions have consistently emphasized that achieving stable economic growth and maintaining internal and external balance require an exchange rate aligned with its long-term equilibrium value. This paper examines the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on Ethiopia's economic growth from 1980 to 2022. The study begins by estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach to calculate the misalignments. It then analyzes the effects of these misalignments on economic growth using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Hansen's (2000) threshold regression model. The VAR and Impulse Response Function (IRF) analyses reveal that real exchange rate misalignments have an immediate positive impact on economic growth, which diminishes between the eighth and sixteenth years and stabilizes as a permanent long-term effect. The threshold regression results indicate that undervaluation of the Ethiopian Birr enhances economic growth up to a 13.95% deviation from the equilibrium real exchange rate, while overvaluation supports growth up to a 7.15% threshold. Beyond these limits, misalignments hinder growth. The study underscores the importance of avoiding excessive deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate to sustain economic growth. Furthermore, it highlights the need for consistent macroeconomic policies to minimize the gap between the actual and equilibrium real exchange rates. These findings emphasize the critical role of exchange rate policy in promoting sustainable economic development in Ethiopia.

Effet de l’insécurité (conflit armé) sur l’autonomisation des femmes au Burkina Faso

Le présent synopsis est un résumé succinct des résultats et conclusions de l’analyse des effets de l’in sécurité (conflits armés) au Burkina Faso sur de multiples domaines de l’autonomisation des femmes mesurés dans l’indice d’autonomisation des femmes dans l’agriculture au niveau du projet (pro-WEAI, acronyme Anglais). En utilisant les données de la première phase du projet « Soutenir l'Exploitation fa miliale pour Lancer l'Elevage de la Volaille et valoriser l'Economie Rurale » (SELEVER), l'étude a exa miné si une proximité accrue avec les événements violents affectait l'autonomisation et si le pro gramme SELEVER contribuait à protéger l'autonomisation des effets négatifs du conflit durant la phase1.

Solar drying technology for post-harvest loss management of horticulture products: Findings from baseline survey in Nigeria

Creating a sustainable food system requires addressing the critical challenges of food waste and loss. This is particularly crucial for small-scale farmers who supply local markets but lack access to modern preservation technologies, leading to significant product losses between harvesting and selling. Research indicates that in low-and middle-income countries, approximately 38 percent of harvested perishable agricultural goods are lost before consumption. Globally, about 22 percent of fruits and vegetables are lost in the supply chain before reaching retailers (FAO, 2019). These postharvest losses have significant impacts to low economic return and household food and nutrition security. Post-harvest losses also contribute significantly to environmental concerns, accounting for roughly 8 percent of yearly global greenhouse gas emissions. Among all food categories, fruits and vegetables experience the highest losses by weight.

Promoting adoption of sustainable land management technologies by women and couples in Ethiopia: Evidence from a randomized trial

Sustainable land management (SLM) technologies including composting and agro-forestry are widely promoted as strategies to counter land degradation and enhance resilience against adverse weather shocks. Given that women are disproportionately vulnerable to such shocks, promoting their uptake of these technologies may be particularly important. We conducted a randomized trial in rural Ethiopia analyzing a bundled intervention providing training and inputs designed to encourage uptake of three interrelated SLM technologies: fruit tree planting, composting, and home gardening. The trial included 1900 extremely poor households in 95 subdistricts, randomly assigned to treatment arms in which women only or couples were included in the intervention. The findings one year post-baseline suggest a positive and large effect on take-up of all three technologies: the probability of reporting any trees increased by eight percentage points, and the probability of reporting a garden and/or composting increased by 20 to 30 percentage points, symmetrically across treatment arms. There are also significant reported increases in household vegetable production and consumption as well as in women’s dietary diversity. There is, however, some evidence that tree survival rates and tree health are weakly lower in intervention households compared to control households who spontaneously planted trees. Some positive effects on equitable intrahousehold decision-making and task-sharing are observed, especially in the couples’ training arm, but in general there is no robust evidence that either intervention significantly shifted intrahousehold gender dynamics.

Don’t spend it all in one place: The medium-term effects of a national cash transfer program on household well-being

Cash transfer programs are often effective at increasing household consumption in their early years, but impacts become more nuanced over time as the use of transfers varies. This paper examines the medium-term effects of Egypt’s f lagship cash transfer program, Takaful, on several measures of household wellbeing using a regression discontinuity (RD) design. Findings reveal no significant impacts on household consumption (total, food or non-food), but notable decreases in monthly wage income that are comparable in magnitude to the average monthly transfer. Employment patterns are suggestive of a decrease in hours worked in formal labour among men. There are positive effects on asset ownership, particularly productive assets, indicating a shift toward longer-term investments. Reductions in informal debt suggest improved financial health among beneficiaries and increases in enrollment in primary and preparatory school suggest increased human capital investment as well. These results underscore the potential of cash transfer programs to foster economic stability and investments in the future, even in the absence of significant immediate consumption effects.

Simulated Future Climates for Ethiopia Using MIT-IGSM HFDs Based on CMIP5

The dataset consists of high-resolution climate projections spanning 50 years, capturing spatial and temporal variations in temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events. These climate inputs were combined with agricultural models to simulate the frequency, intensity, and impact of weather events on the yields of key crops, such as maize, in Ethiopia. It integrates hybrid frequency distributions (HFDs) from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Integrated Global Systems Model (MIT-IGSM) with detrended gridded historical climates from Princeton Global Forcings. Using a Gaussian quadrature routine, 455 representative climate scenarios were selected for Ethiopia under each emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). This comprehensive dataset provides critical insights into the risks posed by climate change to food security and serves as a valuable resource for researchers and policymakers aiming to develop adaptive strategies for sustainable agriculture.

Prioritizing agri-food system investments under climatic and world price risks

With a population exceeding 120 million, Ethiopia is home to 77 million people who directly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods (World Bank, 2024a). The country registered robust agricultural growth of about 5% on average for a decade since 2013 (NBE, 2023). The Ethiopian government has been encouraged to target its development interventions to sustain and accelerate the growth and transformation of the economy (IFAD, 2023; Aragie & Balié, 2019). However, the pattern of support and the composition of growth are critical factors influencing changes in poverty, employment, and diet quality (Christiaensen & Martin, 2018; Pham & Riedel, 2019). Assessing the linkages between economic growth and poverty, employment, and diet quality is a topic of importance to both country policymakers and their development partners. Few studies, including Fan and Zhang (2008), Aragie, et al (2022), Benfica, et al. (2019) and Pauw and Thurlow (2015), have so far assessed and ranked various on-farm and off-farm interventions in relation to their impacts on selected outcome indicators and suggested to policy makers the most cost-effective ways of allocating scarce public resources for maximum impact.

Income, employment, transfers, and household welfare dynamics before and during the conflict in Sudan

This study examines the impact in Sudan of conflict on employment and incomes and the effect of remittances and assistance received by a household on its food insecurity and food consumption. The analyses use data from the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS), the 2023 Sudan Rural Household Survey (SRHS), and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey (SUHS). Conflict is found to significantly increase the likelihood of employment and income loss, particularly among female-headed and displaced households. Receipt of remittances does not have a significant effect on the food security or food consumption of a household. In contrast, whether a household receives assistance is associated with higher food insecurity and lower food consumption, likely reflecting the targeting of assistance programs toward vulnerable households. However, due to the cross sectional nature of the data, causal relationships cannot be established. The results highlight the need for targeted interventions to support the food security and welfare of households affected by the current conflict in Sudan, particularly through efforts to stabilize employment and incomes.

Building pathways out of poverty in Baidoa: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial at endline

Somalia is one of the poorest countries in the world, and severe poverty, ongoing armed conflict, and recurring droughts and floods have created a humanitarian crisis characterized by a high level of inter nal displacement. Baidoa city—the site of this evaluation—hosts 517 sites for internally displaced per sons (IDP), with almost 600,000 households, and 64 percent of the individuals living in these sites are women and girls. According to the second Somali High Frequency Survey (Pape and Karamba 2019), IDP settlements (along with rural areas) face a particularly high level of poverty, exacerbated by high unemployment rates and the absence of income-generating opportunities.

This brief reports on endline findings from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluating the project Building Pathways Out of Poverty for Ultra-poor IDPs and Vulnerable Host Communities in Baidoa, an ultra-poor graduation (UPG) intervention implemented by World Vision and funded by the United States Agency for International Development’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA). The project seeks to enable ultra-poor internally displaced households to graduate from extreme poverty and begin the upward trajectory to self-reliance for displacement-affected communities by enabling gender-sensitive, context-appropriate, and sustainable livelihoods in an urban setting. IFPRI is collaborating with World Vision to conduct the trial.

Financial and environmental outlook of groundwater-solar irrigation in sub-Saharan Africa

Groundwater-fed irrigation holds great promise for enhancing food production in Sub-Saharan Africa. Solar energy offers a renewable and cost-effective solution to power groundwater irrigation; however, unregulated use may threaten the long term sustainability of groundwater resources.

Targeting in development projects in Egypt: Approaches, challenges, and lessons learned

Effective targeting strategies are vital for almost all development programs. Universal approaches which provide aid to all individuals regardless of need are not always feasible given limited budgets and varying development priorities. Conversely, targeting directs resources to those in greatest need, ensures efficient allocation while upholding principles of social justice, equality, and the right to assistance.

This policy note summarizes the outcomes of a workshop held in Cairo on October 20, 2023, which brought together researchers, development practitioners, and policymakers. The high-level dialogue was part of the “Bridging Evidence and Policy” (BEP) seminar series, a collaborative initiative by the Egyptian Food Bank (EFB), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and the Sawiris Foundation for Social Development (SFSD). The BEP series serves as a platform for knowledge exchange and collaborative learning among donors, local and international implementers, and government representatives, with a focus on improving targeting in development projects. This note highlights the key discussions, offering insights into best practices and recommendations to enhance the effectiveness of program targeting.

Strengthen PSNP Institutions and Resilience Phase II (SPIR II), Ethiopia: Group Problem Management Plus (g-PM+) Pilot, Follow-up 2

IFPRI, in collaboration with World Vision (WV) and implementation partners, evaluated the impact of a psychotherapy intervention, group Problem Management plus (gPM+), with and without a one-time lump sum cash transfer. The study is an interventional study using a cluster randomized control trial (cRCT) design that occurred in 70 kebeles across the regions of Oromia and Amhara. The evaluation includes a screening survey to assess eligible men and women; a baseline survey conducted before implementing the gPM+ or cash transfer intervention (June-July 2022); an endline survey conducted on the same individuals right after the interventions (September 2022-October 2022); and a one-year post-intervention survey conducted approximately one year after the endline (September 2023 -December 2023). This dataset is with respect to the endline survey and contains baseline demographic information on the sample in the gPM+ study. The first part comprises of household-level modules such as household roster, housing, assets, consumption, food security, investments, and occurrence of shocking events. The second part is composed of individual-level modules administered to the individuals screened for the study. These modules include instruments for measuring stress, anxiety, coping, self-efficacy, time and risk preference, savings, intimate partner violence, time use, and childcare.

SPIR II Group Problem Management Plus (gPM+) Baseline Survey in Tigray, Ethiopia

This study's objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of a low-cost psychotherapy intervention, group Problem Management Plus (gPM+), in improving mental health, child development, and related outcomes among rural Ethiopian households. gPM+ was delivered in separate arms by government-employed Health Extension Workers (HEWs) or stipended Local Facilitators (LFs) engaged by an NGO. Participants were drawn from the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) in Tigray, targeting individuals aged 18–64 years who showed signs of moderate to moderately severe depression. Villages across four districts were randomized into three arms: control, gPM+ delivered by HEWs, and gPM+ delivered by LFs. The study will be evaluated through a baseline, one-month and 12 month follow-up surveys. The data included here is from the screening and baseline surveys. The screening survey was conducted on 16,872 households to identify eligible individuals for the study, immediately followed by a baseline survey on the 3,744 households with an eligible respondent. The baseline survey collects information on household and individual characteristics including mental health, economic activities, and social behaviors. The data is organized by survey modules, screening modules include modules SA and SB, baseline modules include modules A-K. Module Z is last module on interview status filled out for all households that were screened.

Cointegration analysis of sesame prices in Ethiopian commodity exchange warehouses

This study examines the cointegration of sesame market prices in eight Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) warehouses and its implications for improving the functioning of sesame markets. We analyzed 489 weekly market price data points for each of the eight ECX warehouses, covering the period from end of 2014 to mid-2024. We estimate the Multivariate Vector Error Correction Model (ECM) to analyze short- and long-term spatial price adjustments across warehouses. Of the eight warehouses, six showed significant spatial integration. The VECM results showed effective price transmission and strong short- and longterm market relationships. Short-term dynamics particularly revealed complex interactions. These findings highlight the varying impacts of price fluctuations between warehouses and the need to understand these interactions for better strategic decision making, resource allocation, and pricing strategy refinement. Furthermore, accelerating the speed of price pass through is vital to improve the livelihoods of sesame farmers in Ethiopia.

Accelerating quality upgrading in Ugandan dairy value chains - Preliminary results from a value chain experiment

Uganda’s dairy sector faces persistent challenges in milk quality, particularly low butterfat and solids-not-fat (SNF) levels. This study uses a multilevel randomized control trial with interventions at both Milk Collection Center (MCC) and farmer levels to identify some of the barriers that prevent quality upgrading within dairy value chains. Innovations included milk analyzers, digital record-keeping, and farmer-focused educational campaigns.

Results showed significant improvements in milk quality at MCCs using analyzers, with higher butterfat and SNF levels and reduced adulteration. However, adoption varied widely, and uniform price setting by processors failed to incentivize quality improvements. Future efforts should focus on aligning financial incentives with quality, reducing adoption barriers, and fostering competitive markets to ensure sustainable quality upgrading in Uganda’s dairy value chain.

Zambia: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Zambia’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Zambian Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data on domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of these outcomes. We find that Zambia’s economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with foreign capital flows and world market price volatility together accounting for approximately three-fourths of potential variations in GDP, private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment. Domestic agricultural yield volatilities contribute the remaining one-fourth. The current structure of the Zambian economy underpins these results. While agriculture is the most uncertain sector, its relatively small contribution to GDP limits its economywide and macroeconomic impacts. Instead, export earnings from copper and foreign exchange capital flows play a much more significant role in shaping Zambia's economic risks and their social and economic impacts. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the Zambian economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating a discussion on risk mitigation strategies that include increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production to reduce reliance on high-risk sectors.

Development of the rural household energy insecurity experiences scale with insights from Ethiopia

There is little evidence on how energy poverty affects rural households in low- and middle-income countries. To address this, the CGIAR NEXUS Gains Initiative developed the Rural Household Energy Insecurity Experiences Scale (RHEIES) and piloted the tool in Ethiopia using in-depth interviews. We find heterogeneous energy insecurity experiences across locations and gender dimensions.

Kenya: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Kenya’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Kenyan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings suggest that domestic yield volatility is the key risk factor for GDP and urban consumption and poverty, while external risks, particularly world beverage crop prices, are more significant for rural consumption and poverty. As the majority of those below the poverty line are rural farmers, world beverage price volatility is the top risk for national poverty levels. Finally, for undernourishment outcomes, domestic cereal yield volatility is the dominant risk factor for all household types. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Kenyan economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.