PUBLICATIONS

What do we know about the future of food systems in East and Southern Africa?

Food demand in East and southern Africa (ESA) is expected to be three to nine times higher by 2050 (relative to 2010), depending on the emerging economic and demographic trends.

To meet demand, agrifood systems (AFS) in the region must expand and diversify. Consumption demand for meats and fruits and vegetables will more than triple by 2050, creating economic opportunities but also inclusivity challenges.

Transformations in AFS must increase the sector’s resilience to supply-side shocks that threaten food security and nutrition.

Favorable policies and investments that are country-specific, inclusive, and sustainable will be powerful tools to shape and influence AFS’s transition in the region.

What do we know about the future of food systems in Central and West Asia and North Africa?

The subregions of Central and West Asia and North Africa (CWANA) will continue to import around 50 percent of domestic food requirements by 2050.

Natural resources will continue to degrade in the CWANA region until 2050 and beyond.

Agrifood systems transformation in CWANA can be facilitated by fast-tracking technology transfer approaches, leading to sustainable productivity growth.

Foresight analyses are needed to generate scenarios of agrifood system transformation in CWANA, with a focus on reducing trade and importation risks related to international market volatility.

Vegetable, fruit, and staple crop production and input use: Baseline findings from the FRESH end-to-end evaluation

In Tanzania, fruit and vegetable (F&V) production is the fastest growing agricultural subsector.1 Production is concentrated among smallholder farmers who face numerous barriers which hamper intensification. These include lack of quality inputs, insufficient financing, limited access to subsidies, limited extension services, and limited and unreliable access to markets.

The CGIAR Research Initiative on Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH), now under the CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition (BDN) Area of Work 3, is testing the effectiveness of its end-to-end approach in Northern Tanzania.2 This approach, described in more detail in Research Brief 1, combines demand, food environment, and supply interventions to increase desirability, affordability, accessibility, and availability of F&V. The supply interventions are designed to address known barriers faced by F&V farmers. For example, the provision of climate-resilient vegetable cultivars tackles the lack of quality inputs, whereas training on safe and sustainable vegetable production, including integrated pest management, tackles limited extension services.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and partners are conducting a longitudinal evaluation to assess the impact of the FRESH end-to-end approach in Tanzania on household vegetable production and F&V intake among women of reproductive age. The evaluation is being conducted among 2,611 households living in 33 villages in five districts in the Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions. In this research brief, we describe baseline findings on the production of vegetables, fruit, and staple crops and the inputs used in production among different types of farming households in the study area.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: June 2025

This report analyzes key market trends in Sudan from February to June 2025, focusing on the prices, availability, and quality of essential commodities—cereals, vegetables, animal products, agricultural inputs, fuel, and exchange rates. Consistent with previous editions, it reveals significant spatial and temporal disparities across Sudan’s 18 states.

Cereals showed mixed trends. Wheat prices stabilized in June after a mid-May spike, while sorghum and millet fluctuated modestly. Wheat flour prices continued rising. Perceived availability and quality, particularly of wheat and wheat flour, deteriorated in June, with highest prices in conflict-affected and remote areas. Vegetables—particularly tomatoes and potatoes—experienced sharp price hikes in June, largely due to seasonal pressures and logistical disruptions. Onion prices were more stable but showed regional variation.

Animal products faced upward price pressure and volatility. Prices of lamb, beef, and eggs rose steadily; chicken and fish were erratic, and milk prices fluctuated. Availability declined, especially for beef and eggs. Perceived quality improved for meat but dropped for chicken and fish. Other staples, including sugar, cooking oil, fava beans, and oilseeds, had relatively stable trends overall, but prices varied widely by state. Sugar and fava beans rose sharply, particularly in South Kordofan and Kas sala.

Agricultural inputs showed moderate price fluctuations. Improved seed varieties remained costlier than local ones, with peaks for wheat and potato seeds. Fuel prices in parallel markets spiked in April–May before easing in June. South Kordofan and Central Darfur recorded the highest prices.

Exchange rates continued to diverge between official and parallel markets, with wide regional dis parities—Khartoum, Gedaref, and North Kordofan reported the highest parallel rates.

Sudan’s war is an economic disaster: Here’s how bad it could get

Intimate partner violence and women's economic preferences

One in three women globally experiences intimate partner violence (IPV), yet little is known about how such trauma affects economic decision-making. We provide causal evidence that IPV influences women's time preferences - a key parameter in models of savings, investment, and labor supply. We combine two empirical strategies using four distinct datasets. First, in two randomized recall experiments in Ethiopia, we randomly assigned women to recall specific acts of abuse before eliciting their intertemporal choices. Women with IPV experiences prompted to recall IPV display significantly greater impatience than otherwise similar women who are not prompted. Second, we exploit exogenous reductions in IPV generated by two randomized interventions - one involving cash transfers, the other psychotherapy - and use treatment assignment as an instrument for IPV exposure. Women who experience reduced IPV as a result of treatment exhibit more patient time preferences. Together, these results provide consistent, novel causal evidence that exposure to IPV induces individuals to discount the future more heavily. This evidence suggests a psychological channel through which violence can perpetuate economic disadvantage and constrain women's ability to take actions - such as saving, investing, or exiting abusive relationships - that require planning over time.

Genetic control of seed iron and zinc concentration in Rwandan common bean population revealed by the Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS)

Common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is one of the most abundantly consumed legume crops as foods worldwide. In many African countries, this crop is an important staple food because of its rich nutrients. The Great Lakes region of Central Africa, which includes Rwanda, the nation with the highest per capita consumption of common beans worldwide, is known to be a center of common bean diversity in Africa. Increasing the amount of iron and zinc in common bean for biofortification has been a key breeding goal in Rwanda and other countries. In this study, using 192 accessions, including local landraces from Rwanda, breeding materials, released varieties, and others, we performed genome wide association studies (GWAS) to determine the loci governing those traits in addition to other agronomic traits. We identified a locus that was strongly associated with seed zinc concentration and candidate genes. The information might be a great help for marker-assisted breeding of this trait in common bean.

Country profile – Kenya: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

Agriculture is vital to Kenya's economy, accounting for 20% of the country’s GDP in 2020. Yet the growth of the sector has slowed in recent years due to unfavorable weather conditions, leading to a reduction in crop and livestock performance (Central Bank of Kenya, 2023). While employment in agriculture has been steadily declining (to 32% in 2023), the sector still employs a large share of the rural population and is the main source of informal employment, rural income, and livelihoods (D’Alessandro et al., 2015; ILO 2025).

A majority of Kenyan farmers operate on a small scale and are solely dependent on rainfall (D’Alessandro et al., 2015). However, since the 1970s, the country has experienced significant changes in rainfall pat terns--average rainfall during the long season has decreased while rainfall during other times of the year has increased and the country has experienced more frequent climate extreme events (Kogo et al. 2021). Increased climate variability has negative effects on agriculture and may exacerbate inequalities within the sector. Due to gender inequalities and gender-differentiated roles in agrifood systems, men and women do not experience climate change and variability in the same ways (Balikoowa et al., 2019; Lecoutere et al. 2023). According to the World Economic Forum, women are more vulnerable than men to climate change due to lower education and exclusion from the political and domestic decision-making processes that affect their lives (Gunawardena, 2020).

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Nigeria

Nigeria’s agri-food sector is one of the largest and most complex in sub-Saharan Africa, encompassing diverse crops, regions, actors, and markets. With agriculture contributing approximately 24% to the national GDP and employing over 70% of the rural workforce (CBN, nd), the sector plays a central role in livelihoods, food security, and inclusive growth. Within this sector, agri-food value chains constitute the connective tissue that links smallholder farmers, processors, traders, input suppliers, and consumers, both within the domestic economy and across international markets.

Nigeria's agricultural output is predominantly driven by staple food crops such as maize, rice, and cassava, while export-oriented value chains like cocoa provide significant foreign exchange and economic diversification potential. These chains vary widely in terms of modernization, capital intensity, and integration into digital financial services. Staple crop chains are typically domestic-facing and labor-intensive, offering high employment shares and deep linkages with poverty alleviation. Export-oriented chains, although narrower in farmer reach, tend to offer higher margins, foreign earnings, and exposure to quality standards and global market dynamics.

Credit access, demand, and repayment among smallholder farmers in Nigeria: A follow-up analysis

Access to credit can be important for improving the performance of smallholders, as it enables farmers to purchase inputs while sustaining their livelihoods. In rural Nigeria, however, access to credit—particularly from formal financial institutions—is limited. As a result, farmers often have little to no choice but to depend on alternative credit sources, including informal lending. Small holder agricultural households often turn to friends and family, or local money lenders and other informal and semi-formal sources to meet their credit needs (EFInA, 2020).

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, June 2025

Highlights
Retail prices of maize increased by 8 percent in June.
Prices rose in all regions of Malawi despite continued imports.
Maize retailed above the government-mandated price in 13 out of 26 monitored markets.

How good are livestock statistics in Africa?

Livestock supports the livelihoods of around one billion people in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) (Thorne and Conroy 2017, Baltenweck et al. 2020). However, growth and productivity of the livestock sector in many LMICs are not keeping pace with the increasing demand for animal-source foods. Boosting the sector’s productivity is crucial for poverty reduction in LMICs, which continue to face multifaceted challenges and shocks that threaten the sustainability of food systems. This, in turn, requires reliable livestock data for informing livestock policies and investments. However, there is a significant gap in the quality and reliability of livestock data, which inhibits evaluations of the livestock sector’s role in livelihoods and national economies and therefore impedes evidence-based livestock policies and investments.

How climate-induced conflict is shaping rural Nigeria

As climate change stretches Nigeria’s dry seasons and disrupts traditional grazing patterns, tensions between nomadic herders and settled farmers fuel violent conflict—most intensely just before the planting season. New research shows how repeated exposure to violence shifts labour patterns differently by gender and across agricultural seasons. While households often pivot to non-farm enterprise work, these shifts fail to offset economic losses, revealing indirect costs of conflict. Despite policy efforts such as open-grazing bans, violence has surged, highlighting the failure of exclusionary approaches and the need for inclusive policymaking.

Do others’ health count for peanuts? Health, market returns, and pro-sociality

Individuals often make decisions considering both private returns and welfare impacts on others. Food safety decisions by smallholder agricultural producers exemplify this choice, particularly in low-income countries where farmers often consume some of the food crops they produce and sell or donate the rest. We conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment with peanuts producers in Senegal to study the decision to invest in food safety information, exogenously varying the degree of private returns (monetary or health-wise) and welfare impacts on others. Producers are willing to pay real money for food safety information even absent the potential for private returns, but willingness to pay increases with the potential for private returns. A randomized information treatment significantly increases willingness to pay in all scenarios. Our results shed light on the complex interplay between altruism and economic decisions in the presence of externalities, and point to the potential of timely and targeted information to address food safety issues.

A comparative analysis of food consumption data from 24-Hour dietary recalls and Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys in Tanzania

Objective Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys (HCES) are increasingly used to assess diets in low- and middle-income countries, but their validity compared to individual-level dietary data remains uncertain. We assessed the strengths and limitations of HCES data for informing strategies to improve diets and nutrition in Tanzania. Design Exploratory analysis of food group consumption estimated from HCES (individualized using the adult female equivalent approach) and 24-hour dietary recall (24hR). We examined concordance and trends by socioeconomic characteristics between methods for 10 food groups and fortifiable food vehicles. Setting and Participants Dietary 24hR of adult women (n=2,599) and HCES data (n=2,604) were collected from the same households in rural Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions in Tanzania. Additionally, food group consumption was estimated using HCES data from the Tanzania National Panel Survey Wave 5 at the national level (n=4,469 households) and for Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions (n=370). Results Dietary patterns were similar using HCES and 24hR data, including low consumption of nutrient-dense foods, while HCES were effective at capturing usual intake of food items eaten episodically. However, compared to 24hR data, energy intakes were substantially lower using HCES data, particularly in large households (42% difference), while there was poor concordance between methods for fruit and meat consumption and for wealth-related trends in cereal and vegetable intake. Conclusion HCES data can provide valuable insights for nutrition policy and planning, however, careful communication and interpretation of evidence is required, given limitations such as assumptions on within-household allocation of foods. Methods development could reduce measurement error.

Climate and weather services can enhance Ethiopian farmers’ resilience to climate change: Economy-wide impact analysis

Weather and climate services (WCS) are particularly important in Sub-Saharan Africa, where weather-dependent agriculture is the main source of livelihood, and where erratic weather patterns and extreme weather events have major impacts on rural livelihoods and food security. However, despite their importance, their effects on the agriculture sector and the overall economy are not well understood. For the case of Ethiopia, we use a computable general equilibrium modeling approach with the latest Ethiopian social accounting matrix data to estimate the potential contribution of WCS to macroeconomic variables, including growth in gross domestic product nationally and by sector. The analysis incorporates results of a separate econometric analysis of household survey data from five major regions in Ethiopia, which showed WCS use is associated with increased agricultural productivity. We estimate that increased agricultural productivity associated with WCS contributes to overall economic growth of more than 6 %, with a likely positive effect on farmers’ resilience to climate variability and change. The positive impact of WCS on agricultural productivity propagate to the overall economy, as evidenced by the considerable positive effect on GDP especially from the more climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture.

Women’s experiences in the food environment and their association with fruit and vegetables intake: Insights from Northern Tanzania

Background There is limited information from rural low-income contexts about consumers’ buying behaviours of fruit and vegetables (F&V) and accessibility to F&V in the food environments, which may inform interventions to increase F&V intake.

Objectives We examined how women living in rural northern Tanzania experience the food environments by exploring buying patterns, perceptions, and accessibility of F&V, and their association with women’s F&V intake.

Methods We used cross-sectional data from 2,597 women living in the Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions. Self-reported experiences of the food environments for F&V included buying frequency, sources, availability, and convenience. Accessibility was measured using geospatial measures of distance and time between home and reported typical buying sources. Data from a 30-day F&V food frequency questionnaire were used to calculate two scores that captured intake frequency and variety. We conducted a descriptive analysis of women’s experience indicators and tested their associations with the scores using multivariable and Poisson regression models, controlling for covariates.

Results On average, 5% and 35% of women reported daily buying of F&V, respectively. Fruit was mostly bought from markets: F: 80%, V: 40%. Two-thirds of respondents perceived F&V as available (F: 65%, V: 60%). Median (IQR) distance and time to fruit sources was 9 km (2,19), 39 min (19,78), and to vegetable sources was 3 km (1,10), 32 min (8-69). Compared to women who reported making daily purchases of F&V, those who purchased F&V weekly or monthly reported lower frequency and diversity of F&V intake. Perceptions that F&V were less available and at a longer distance, but not time, were associated with lower frequency and variety of vegetable intake.

Conclusion Buying frequency, perceived availability, and distance to markets were associated with women’s F&V intake frequency and variety, underscoring the need to consider these and other factors in food environments to increase F&V intake.

CGIAR Initiative on One Health

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Ethiopia

Agriculture is of paramount importance to Ethiopia’s economy. Agriculture accounts for 40 percent of the country's GDP, 80 percent of export earnings, and employs 75 percent of the population (Tamene & Ali, 2022). Crop and livestock production account for roughly 65 percent and 25 percent of agricultural GDP, respectively (International Trade Administration, 2024). Cereals account for roughly 90 percent of total grain production. Teff, known for its gluten-free nutritional aspect, takes the leading share of cereals by production area (ESS 2022). Ethiopia is also the second-largest wheat producer in Africa, following South Africa, with an expansion potential of 1.3 million hectares (Senbeta & Worku, 2023). Coffee, a crop with high cultural and economic importance in Ethiopia, accounts for 30 percent of exports and 25 percent of total employment. Ethiopia stands as Africa's leading coffee producer and among the top five coffee producing nations worldwide (Tefera & Torry, 2023).

Within Ethiopia’s overall agri-food system, most agricultural value chain activity fits the traditional definition, where subsistence farming dominates, postharvest value addition is minimal, and grain production constitutes the largest share (Barrett et al., 2022). However, some commodities in Ethiopia are progressing from traditional to transitional and modern value chains. The dairy value chain can be considered transitional, as it is characterized by a growing processing and logistics sector and emerging pre-urban supply chains (which disfavor remote regions with high production potential as they need more advanced logistics). The coffee value chain in Ethiopia can be considered as a modern value chain – i.e., characterized by product standardization and quality control aimed at the global market/export (Ambler et al., 2023; Barrett et al., 2022).

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Kenya

Kenya’s agrifood systems are broad and diverse, including both staple food crops and high-value exports which are essential to the economic and social advancement of the nation. The agricultural sector em ploys more than 40 percent of Kenya's workforce, including more than 70 percent of rural residents, and accounts for about 33 percent of the country's GDP (FAO, 2023a; FAO, n.d.). The growth of Kenya’s agrifood system is largely driven by domestic market demand rather than exports, a trend driven by rapid urbanization and rising income opportunities in the rural nonfarm sector, which are leading to shifts in dietary preferences and are expected to further influence ongoing structural transformation (Diao et al., 2023).

Kenya’s agricultural sector is characterized by several value chains that significantly support economic output, job creation, and trade. Tea is Kenya's most significant agricultural export, contributing about 2 percent to the overall GDP and 4 percent to GDP in agriculture. Managed predominantly by the Kenya Tea Development Agency (KTDA), which oversees over 60 percent of national tea production, the sector supports approximately 6.5 million people (Tea Board of Kenya, 2024). Tea also contributes around 21 percent of Kenya's export earnings, which makes it the third-largest source of foreign exchange earnings in the nation after diaspora remittances and tourism (Kilimo News, 2024).

Rethinking delivery modalities in conflict-affected settings: Why beneficiaries in Sudan prefer digital transfers

The recent surge in armed conflicts across Africa is increasing demand for humanitarian and social assistance, creating significant pressure on humanitarian actors to deliver life-saving support amid insecurity and constrained resources. The conflict that erupted in Sudan in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has resulted in the world’s largest displacement crisis, triggering an acute and multidimensional humanitarian emergency requiring urgent and substantial international support. These armed conflicts in Africa are threatening important gains in poverty reduction made in the last few decades.

While armed conflicts and associated crises increase the need for assistance, they simultaneously undermine the capacity to deliver it. In conflict-affected settings, the operational environment is often marked by damaged infrastructure, disrupted markets, weakened institutions, and limited humanitarian access. These challenges hinder the effectiveness, targeting, and coverage of social protection and humanitarian aid programs (Ghorpade, 2017; 2020; Lind et al., 2022). Moreover, the proliferation of armed groups—including both state and non-state actors—can obstruct aid delivery or divert assistance, further limiting program reach and impact. Compounding these challenges is a widening humanitarian financing gap, driven by escalating needs and declining donor contributions. In response, development and humanitarian actors are increasingly exploring cost-effective delivery mechanisms to improve efficiency, transparency, and reach of humanitarian aid to vulnerable populations. Among these, digital transfers, including mobile money, offer promising avenues for delivering assistance in fragile settings where conventional approaches may be impractical or insecure.

This brief draws on evidence from Sudan to assess the feasibility and demand for digital transfers in humanitarian response. It explores emerging practices and offers insights for policymakers, donors, and implementing agencies aiming to adapt assistance modalities to meet the challenges of protracted crises.

Understanding spatial heterogeneity of hidden hunger in Senegal

Using household consumption data collected in 2017/18, this paper analyzes patterns of urban and rural food consumption in Senegal. We adopt two methodological approaches: an in-depth (spatial) profiling of current diets and corresponding nutrient intakes and an application of the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS). Our findings indicate that Senegal is a typical case of micronutrient deficiency, especially regarding calcium, iron, and vitamin B12. Due to their higher income status and better food access, urban dwellers on average have a more diversified diet with higher nutrient intakes compared to their rural counterparts, especially regarding calcium, vitamin B12, and vitamin A. While the country’s food system in general is unable to assure a nutritious diet for all, the most remote rural departments in Senegal, such as Saraya and Podor, display the highest nutrient deficiencies and therefore should be targeted with priority. Apart from geographical targeting and given their higher responsiveness to price and income changes, policies based on food pricing and income transfers should be implemented to ensure a minimal nutrient intake among the most food-insecure households. These policies could be further complemented with behavioral change campaigns to promote an alternative set of nutrient-rich and cost-effective food items.

What is the role for multistakeholder platforms in transboundary basin governance? Distilling lessons from three cases and applying them in the Incomati Basin

Multistakeholder platforms have become a go-to institutional model for achieving effective and inclusive water governance. With the proliferation of cooperative arrangements at a transboundary scale, there has been a growing number of transboundary river basin multistakeholder platforms. While these basin-wide platforms should contribute to improving water governance, evidence on the structure and impacts of them is scarce. This paper outlines the development of a transboundary multistakeholder platform in the Incomati River Basin in Southern Africa. Learning from experiences in other shared basins, we focus on the multiscale and political aspects of integrating multistakeholder platforms into transboundary basin governance.

Determinants of household food security and maternal dietary diversity in rural Gedeo zone, southern Ethiopia: results from a cross-sectional study

Background: In Ethiopia, food insecurity and poor dietary diversity continue to affect maternal and child health, particularly in rural regions.

Objective: We examined the status and determinants of household food security and maternal dietary diversity in rural Gedeo zone, southern Ethiopia.

Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among randomly selected 422 households, and household food insecurity and women’s dietary diversity was measured. We conducted bivariable and multivariable logistic regression.

Results: In this study, 65.5% of mothers (95% CI: 60.7–70.0%) and 27.9% (95% CI: 23.7–32.5%) of households had adequate dietary diversity and food security, respectively. Severe or moderate food insecurity predispose to inadequate dietary diversity, whereas, higher wealth status increased the odds of adequate dietary diversity. Maternal education increased the odds of adequate dietary diversity. Regarding household food insecurity, the size of the household having a member of 5–7 and 8–12 were 78 and 76% less likely to be food insecure among households compared to 1–4 members size [OR = 0.22 (95%CI: 0.07, 0.70)] and [OR = 0.24 (95% CI: 0.07, 0.83)] respectively. Those household having high in women’s dietary diversity were 83% less likely to have to food insecure among households compared to the lowest women’s dietary diversity [AOR = 0.17 (95% CI: 0.10, 0.31)].

Conclusion: Household wealth status, maternal education, household food security status, pregnancy status were factors affected maternal dietary diversity. Family size and dietary diversity affected household food security status. Interventions should focus on maternal literacy, empowering women on income, assuring food security to increase maternal dietary diversity.

To defer or to differ: Experimental evidence on the role of cash transfers in Nigerian couples’ decision–making

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Tanzania

Agriculture is vital to Tanzania's economic framework, significantly contributing to the country's gross domestic product (GDP). According to the ministerial report on the agriculture sector, the agriculture sector contributed 26.3 percent to national GDP in 2024, an increase from 26.2 percent in the previous year (MOA, 2025). It employed an average of 61.4 percent of the population, a slight decrease from 65.6 percent in 2023. Furthermore, agriculture provides 65 percent of essential raw materials for industries (MOA, 2024). Specifically, crop production recorded a growth rate of 4.2 percent in 2023, up from 2.7 percent in 2022, contributing 16.1 percent to national GDP, an increase from 15 percent in 2022 (MOA, 2024). Agriculture continues to play a critical role in ensuring food security, meeting 128 percent of domestic food demand in 2024 (MOA, 2025). Exports of agricultural products also saw substantial growth, reaching approximately USD 3.54 billion in 2023/2024, a significant increase from about USD 1.2 billion in 2019/2020 (MOA, 2025).
Tanzania's agricultural transformation increasingly relies on modernizing agri-food value chains, especially those linking rural producers to growing urban and export markets, which are seeing a widening price gap. Value addition is essential for improving agricultural productivity and can take multiple forms. Hidayati et al. (2023) categorize value addition based on quality, safety, and market orientation, while emphasizing the importance of social factors such as job creation and food safety, alongside economic aspects such as sales, profitability, and environmental impacts. In agriculture, value addition involves transforming raw materials into finished products and by-products through processes such as drying, processing, packaging, and distribution. These activities enhance the market value of agricultural products, bolster economic growth through job creation, and contribute to food security. Consequently, maximizing value addition is crucial to fully leveraging the potential of Tanzania’s agricultural sector and translating it into measurable economic growth.

Contributions of District Health Information Software 2 (DHIS2) to maternal and child health service performance in Ethiopia: An interrupted time series mixed-methods study

Background
The District Health Information Software 2 (DHIS2) is the primary digital platform for health management information systems (HMIS) in Ethiopia, aligning with the nation’s digitization strategy. Despite widespread implementation, its effectiveness on key health service indicators, particularly maternal and child health (MCH) services, remain unclear.

Objective
This study aimed to evaluate the contribution of DHIS2 on data use and the performance of selected MCH indicators in Ethiopia, comparing data before and after the implementation of DHIS2.

Methods
We analysed data from primary health care units (PHUs) across five diverse regions of Ethiopia, encompassing urban, agrarian, and pastoralist settings. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining quantitative and qualitative methods to provide a comprehensive understanding of the data. The quantitative component involved examining performance reports of selected maternal and child health (MCH) indicators from 2013 to 2022 to assess changes before and after the implementation of the District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2). Data were collected electronically and analysed using descriptive statistics and interrupted time series (ITS) analyses to identify trends and patterns. The qualitative component included interviews and focus group discussions with health workers and stakeholders to explore contextual factors influencing MCH service utilization and performance. The data were analysed thematically using OpenCode 4.1 software.

Results
The implementation of DHIS2 significantly contributed to the enhancement of MCH data utilization within PHU facilities. This improvement supported decision-making processes in various aspects of maternal and child healthcare delivery, including target setting, resource allocation, program monitoring, and clinical service provision. Specifically, DHIS2 led to increased monthly mean performance of key indicators such as antenatal care visits, skilled birth attendance, and immunization rates. Notable improvements in service delivery were observed, with significant increases in institutional delivery rates over time.

Conclusions
The study highlights DHIS2’s significant contribution to improving MCH services in Ethiopia, with increased institutional delivery rates and ANC coverage reflecting enhanced data-driven decision-making. Most facilities relied on DHIS2 for resource allocation and program monitoring, though challenges like offline usage and accessibility persist. To maximize impact, improving offline data management, training staff, leveraging real-time reporting, and addressing accessibility through connectivity investments are recommended.

Lessons Learned from Implementing the CAADP Biennial Review Process Under the Malabo Declaration

The Biennial Review (BR), launched under the 2014 Malabo Declaration, serves as the African Union's (AU) primary mutual accountability tool for tracking Member States' progress in implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). This brief, drawing lessons from four BR cycles, aims to inform the next phase of BRs in preparation for the domestication and implementation of the 2025 Kampala CAADP Declaration. While the BR has prompted policy and programmatic changes in several countries, its full impact is hindered by persistent challenges such as underfunding, weak monitoring and evaluation (M&E) capacities, and data quality issues. Despite these hurdles, innovations like the eBR and national data clusters have led to improvements in data quality and reporting rates.
Still further improvements in data systems, capacities, and stakeholder engagement are urgently needed to strengthen the Biennial Review (BR) process. Key recommendations include adopting coherent data governance policies, promoting BR awareness and data utilization, refining the BR scorecard methodology, expanding data clusters to more countries, strengthening M&E capacities, ensuring inclusive BR validation, and integrating the BR database with M&E systems at both national and regional levels. Sustained political leadership, technical support, and domestic funding are critical to institutionalizing a robust, timely, high-quality, and impactful BR process that supports evidence-based decision-making and accelerates progress toward achieving the CAADP agrifood system transformation goals under the Kampala Declaration.

Outcomes and impacts of CGIAR Research Initiatives in Kenya from 2022 to 2024

Kenya hosted one of CGIAR’s largest portfolios of research and innovation from 2022 to 2024, when pooled funding for the CGIAR was distributed through CGIAR research initiatives. This paper synthesizes CGIAR’s contributions to Kenyan agriculture in that period by triangulating two evidence streams: 148 outcomes logged in the CGIAR Performance and Results Management System (PRMS) and 56 impact assessments published as peer-reviewed journal articles. The analysis shows that CGIAR’s work has catalyzed improvements in seed systems, facilitated refinements in agronomic techniques, and encouraged the adoption of climate-resilient, sustainable farming practices and technologies. These contributions have paved the way for increasing crop productivity, while also supporting key livestock innovations that enhance food safety and bolster the resilience of pastoral communities. Robust local partnerships underpinned several policy shifts and helped align many outputs with the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA). Yet, important gaps persist. Activities are mainly concentrated in easily reached areas rather than being spread across all agro-ecological zones, and outcomes are recorded in an isolated way, obscuring how separate successes add up to systemic change. Peer-reviewed impact evaluations focused on a different set of impact areas than outcomes reported in PRMS, rarely involve cross-center collaborations, and PRMS entries seldom document how evidence, policy uptake, and multidisciplinary collaboration link together. Looking ahead to the next CGIAR Science Programs phase, the paper urges broader engagement with under-served value chains, deeper cross-program synergies, and closer alignment with Kenya’s BETA and MTP IV priorities to foster inclusive, resilient agricultural growth.

Political violence in the G5 Sahel countries -- Conflict diffusion indicator: Methodology and implementation

The Conflict Diffusion Indicator, as defined by ACLED, measures the proportion of a country’s geographic area experiencing high levels of violence. This indicator assesses the geographic spread of conflict across administrative level 2 (adm2) regions, using a 10km-by-10km spatial grid. This document outlines the methodology and implementation steps for computing the indicator for the Sahel region (2018 data) using Google Earth Engine (GEE).

Scaling strategy for ShambaShield: Inclusive bundled finance for smallholders

Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate shocks in Ethiopia

The Ethiopian economy relies heavily on rainfed agriculture for income generation, export earnings, and rural livelihoods. However, projections from climate scenarios predict high frequency and intense extreme agro-climatic events, posing significant and growing risks to Ethiopia’s agri-food system and overall economy. This study evaluates the economic impacts of recurrent climate shocks on Ethiopia through 2040 and assesses the contribution of alternative investment options in lessening some of these impacts. Findings reveal that recurrent climate shocks could reduce Ethiopia's cumulative GDP by up to 17 percent (or approximately US$ 534.3 billion) by 2040 compared to a “no climate change” baseline. These economic losses are predominantly concentrated in the agricultural sector, disproportionately affecting rural households and poorer urban populations. Strategic investments in irrigation infrastructure and hydroelectricity generation emerge as effective measures to mitigate some of the adverse effects of recurrent climate variability, underscoring the importance of proactive and targeted climate adaptation strategies for Ethiopia's economic resilience. Results further indicate that significantly mitigating the socio-economic impacts of climate and weather shocks requires scaling up investments and diversifying adaptation strategies. The insights derived from this analysis can be informative to economies with similar structures.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: May 2025

This report presents an overview of trends in prices, availability, and quality of key commodities in Sudan from February to May 2025. It covers cereals, vegetables, animal products, and other essential commodities such as cooking oil, sugar, agricultural inputs (fertilizers and seeds), fuels, and exchange rates. The analysis reveals notable spatial and temporal disparities in prices, availability, and quality across Sudan’s 18 states.

Sudan: Cereal markets and trade

Cereal production and markets, key components of Sudan’s food economy, have changed dramatically in the last decade due to conflict-related disruptions, as well as earlier changes in government policy. In western Sudan, particularly Darfur and surrounding regions, ongoing conflict has severely hindered agricultural activities, leading to a sharp decline in domestic cereal production. In contrast, other regions of Sudan have maintained relatively stable planting and harvesting activities, although marketing costs have risen substantially.

Brewing prosperity: An analysis of living income gaps among coffee smallholders in central Kenya

This study investigates the living income gap among coffee smallholders in central Kenya. It uses detailed survey data collected from coffee farmers organized in cooperatives and from coffee farm workers in Nyeri and Murang’a counties. Our analysis finds that coffee smallholders earn an average of only 109 KSh per day, just 35 percent of the 312 KSh living income benchmark, with the gap being particularly severe in Murang’a and among those with smaller landholdings. Sensitivity analyses show that enhancing prices paid to farmers and improving yields can partially reduce the income shortfall. For instance, doubling both parameters, especially when coupled with a 50 percent increase in farmers’ non-coffee income, lowers the incidence of households below the benchmark from more than 90 percent to about 67 percent. Yet, even under these relatively optimal conditions, the persistence of a significant gap underscores deep structural constraints in the local economy. Policy recommendations therefore call for a multidimensional approach that improves production efficiency, improves and stabilizes prices, promotes income diversification, and strengthens institutional support.

Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the world’s largest projected increase in demand for food. Increased dependence on imports makes SSA vulnerable to geopolitical and economic risks, while further expansion of agricultural land is environmentally harmful. Cereals, in particular, maize, millet, rice, sorghum, and wheat, take nearly 50% of the cropland and 43% of the calories and proteins consumed in the region. Demand is projected to double until 2050. Here, we assess recent developments in cereal self-sufficiency and provide outlooks until 2050 under different intensification, area expansion, and climate change scenarios. We use detailed data for ten countries. Cereal self-sufficiency increased between 2010 and 2020 from 84 to 92% despite the 29% population increase. The production increase was achieved by increased yields per hectare (44%), area expansion (34%), and a shift from millet to the higher yielding maize (22%). Outlooks for 2050 are less pessimistic than earlier assessments because of the larger 2020 baseline area, higher shares of maize and somewhat less steep projected population increase. Yet, to halt further area expansion, a drastic trend change in annual yield increase from the present 20 to 58 kg ha−1 y−1 is needed to achieve cereal self-sufficiency. While such yield increases have been achieved elsewhere and are feasible given the yield potentials in SSA, they require structural changes and substantial agronomic, socioeconomic, and political investments. We estimate that amounts of added nitrogen need to at least triple to achieve such yield improvements, but it is essential that this comes with improved context-specific agronomy.

Tanzania: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present research findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Tanzania’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in extension and advisory services on livestock are shown to be the most cost-effective in expanding agrifood GDP and jobs. We also find that targeting SME processors generates stronger impacts on jobs, while extension services in agronomy are particularly cost-effective in fostering growth. Similarly, investing in extension services in agronomy and livestock, along with support to SME processors, yields significant gains in social outcomes, though with varying effects on poverty, hunger, and diet quality. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, highlighting potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and when extreme production shocks occur.

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, May 2025

Highlights
Retail prices of maize bottomed out in May.
Prices rose in southern Malawi despite continued imports.
Maize retailed below the government-mandated price in 25 out of 26 monitored markets.

Global Gridded Data on Climate Impact on Yields From DSSAT Crop Model, 2005–2050

This dataset presents percentage changes in agricultural yields due to climate change, comparing the projected yield in 2050 under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and 5 climate models, to the climate of 2005. The dataset includes spatially explicit outputs at a 0.5-degree resolution and covers seven key crops: maize, wheat, rice, soybeans, sorghum, groundnuts (peanuts), and potatoes.
The analysis is done separately for growing under rainfed and irrigated conditions and includes separate results computed with and without CO2 fertilization. The yields used in the calculation were generated using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model. The projections are driven by climate inputs from five global climate models (GCMs) included in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 3b (ISIMIP3b), aligned with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). Two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways—SSP370 and SSP585—are used to represent divergent climate and development trajectories. Simulations were conducted both with and without the effects of carbon dioxide (CO₂) fertilization.

Country profile – Ethiopia: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

This brief provides an overview of Ethiopia’s climate risks, gender dynamics, and nutrition challenges and includes discussion of how these issues are intertwined, an overview of the policy landscape, and recommendations for strengthening the integration of gender, climate change and nutrition in the country. With a population of approximately 126.5 million people as of 2023, Ethiopia ranks as the second most populous country in Africa and stands out as one of the region's fastest-growing economies, with an economic growth rate of almost 10% per year over the last 15 years (World Bank, 2024). Ethiopia’s agrifood system accounted for 48% of Ethiopia’s national GDP and 77.2% of employment in 2019. Pri mary agriculture alone contributed more than 1/3 of GDP and 2/3 of employment, while other parts of the agrifood system such as processing, trade, and input supply contributed 12.8 percent to GDP and 9.4 percent to employment (Diao et al., 2023). The sector is dominated by smallholder farmers who cultivate a diverse array of crops, including cereals, pulses, oilseeds, fruits, and vegetables (Dawid & Mohammed, 2021). Women make up more than 40% of the agriculture labor force and head approximately 25% of all farming households in the country (World Bank, 2019).

Economic and food security impacts of climate disasters and mitigation policies: Insights from Nigeria

Climate information services enhance farmers’ resilience to climate change: Impacts on agricultural productivity

Ethiopia is a climate “hotspot” where the variable and changing climate periodically threatens agricultural production, food security, and human well-being. Using two-rounds of Feed the Future program survey data that cover 3,799 farming households in five major regions in Ethiopia, and employing panel data estimation methods, we analyze the potential impact of weather and climate services (WCS) on agricultural productivity and farmers’ resilience in Ethiopia. We found that access to WCS increases the productivity of maize and wheat crops by 27 % and 17 %, respectively. These estimates are comparable to or higher than conventional yield-increasing production technologies such as fertilizer and improved seeds. Despite such a strong productivity effect, access to WCS is limited to only 18 % of the surveyed farmers. This study adds to the existing body of evidence on the significant positive impact of WCS, and affirms the importance of weather and climate information service products to enhance farmers’ resilience to climate risk. Further analyses are needed to estimate the value to Ethiopia’s smallholder farmers, especially those who are most vulnerable to climate-related hazards, of increasing investment in improving seasonal climate forecasts, mainstreaming weather and climate services in the agricultural extension system, including through National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS), and supporting farmer decision-making with climate-informed digital advisory tools and training.

Rural institutions and the technical efficiency of teff production in Ethiopia

We examine the effect of rural institutions on plot-level technical efficiency of teff production. We account for differences in production technology, access to the market, plot characteristics, and weather shocks across plots and investigate the robustness of the effects of rural institutions on technical efficiency across various specifications. Using a large and detailed cross-section of teff plots, we find that teff output could be increased by approximately 25 percent with the available inputs and technology through improved technical efficiency. The magnitude of technical inefficiency is robust to alternative functional forms and variable specifications. Community discussion groups and distance to the nearest agricultural co-operative have a positive relationship with technical efficiency, highlighting their potential to enhance agricultural productivity. However, we find limited evidence on the relationship between co-operative membership, visits with extension and technical efficiency of teff producers. Our results show that when studying the impact of new programs and policies in agriculture, it is important to look beyond just whether farmers are members of co-operatives. We might consider other factors, such as how much access they have to co-operative services. It is crucial for policymakers to consider implementing targeted interventions to share information on best management practices and agricultural technologies in order to address the efficiency gap in teff production.

JEL classification: D02, D24, C54, P13, N57

Assessing the overall benefits of programs enhancing human capital and equity: A new method with an application to school meals

Urbanization shapes West African diets throughout the rural-urban continuum

Our understanding of how urbanization interacts with food consumption has been hindered by the lack of a unified definition of what constitutes an “urban” area. The use of a binary designation also fails to capture the complexity and diversity of settlement types and results in a focus on the “rural-urban divide”. This study combines nationally representative survey data on household food consumption from eight West African countries with geospatial data capturing the urbanization gradient following the global definition of the Degree or Urbanization. This allows us to analyse consumption of different food groups, diet quality, and macronutrient intakes throughout the rural-urban continuum. We find robust evidence of an increasing rural-urban gradient in total food consumption, as well as a gradual shift away from traditional staple foods, towards increased consumption of foods that require less or no preparation. Residing in more urbanized areas is associated with greater diet diversity and increased consumption of vegetables and animal-source foods. Yet, rising intakes of unhealthy foods and fats in particular along the rural-urban continuum contribute to a deterioration of diet quality. While the estimated effects are strongest in cities, these diet transitions also take place in peri-urban areas and rural areas. This confirms the importance of moving beyond a simple rural-urban dichotomy in research and policy related to food consumption. The demonstrated importance of foods eaten away from home across the entire rural-urban continuum further underscores the need for more research to better understand this sector and explore how it can contribute to both employment and food security.

Unpacking power dynamics and women's economic empowerment in polygynous households in Burkina Faso

Objective
We aim to describe power distributions in polygynous households and consider how these matter for the production and allocation of food-generating resources in western Burkina Faso, where there is a high prevalence of polygyny.

Background
Recent studies on polygyny focus on its likely negative consequences and mechanisms for explaining these outcomes using data from large multitopic surveys. These approaches fail to consider the underlying dynamics in polygynous households.

Method
As part of a 5-year mixed-methods evaluation of a nutrition- and gender-sensitive poultry value chain intervention in western Burkina Faso, we conducted a thematic analysis of 24 gender-disaggregated focus group discussions (265 individuals) and 24 semi-structured interviews in six communities. They focused on gender and power dynamics, food production, and food allocation with a specific focus on polygyny.

Results
Relationships among co-wives are often cooperative, though not necessarily warm, and typically hierarchical. Monogamous and polygynous marriage may support women's empowerment in different domains. Polygynous co-wives may be able to divide care work, but first wives often control how labor is divided. In monogamous marriages, wives often make decisions jointly with their husbands, while in polygynous marriages, most co-wives are left out of decisions. In polygynous households, women are better able to maintain control over their earnings.

Conclusion
We discuss these findings in terms of their implications for studying polygynous households in quantitative surveys and in terms of how to better design and target interventions for this population.

A large-scale nutrition- and gender-sensitive poultry market-based program did not improve maternal and child diets in rural Burkina Faso: A cluster-randomized controlled trial

Background
Livestock production interventions can improve consumption of animal-source foods and diet diversity, which may lead to improved micronutrient adequacy.

Objective
We assessed the effectiveness on maternal and child dietary outcomes of SELEVER, a livestock intervention designed to improve diets in rural Burkina Faso through training and market facilitation to improve poultry production; women’s empowerment activities; and nutrition and hygiene behavior change communication.

Methods
For a nonblinded cluster-randomized controlled trial, we randomly assigned 30 communes to SELEVER and 30 communes to control, of which 15 communes served as control for a narrow sample. Fifteen households were randomly selected in two villages per commune; of which 12 were included in the narrow sample. In the wide sample, we used ANCOVA to assess SELEVER’s effectiveness on dietary diversity in index children aged 2-4 years at baseline and in their caregivers, and on minimum acceptable diet in their siblings aged 6-23 months at measurement. In the narrow sample, we used difference-in-difference to assess SELEVER’s effectiveness on vitamin A, iron, and zinc prevalence of adequate intakes (PA) and mean PA of 11 micronutrients in index children and caregivers.

Results
We enrolled 1,767 index children, 1,766 caregivers and 412 siblings aged 6–23 months at endline in the wide sample, and 1,054 caregiver-child dyads in the narrow sample. In the wide sample, exposure to program activities was higher but moderate in SELEVER communities, with limited effects on dietary knowledge and practices and no effects on diet outcomes. The narrow sample showed a negative effect on zinc PA in children (-26 percentage points, P=0.020), and no effect on other outcomes.

Conclusions
A program focused on improving the productivity of and demand for nutritious foods did not improve micronutrient adequacy. Implementation strategy and bottlenecks may have limited the system transformations needed to produce measurable shifts toward healthier diets.

The study was registered on the ISCRCTN registry (ISRCTN16686478); details are available at https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN16686478

Farm size and agricultural productivity of nutritious foods: Evidence from Ethiopia

Agri-food systems are transforming quickly in Africa. An important issue in the transformation process of agricultural production is the role of small farms. While many authors have looked at this question, one aspect that has received little attention is the role of small farms in the production of nutritious foods, an important topic given the low availability and relatively high prices of nutritious foods and the consequent low level of nutrition security in the continent. Using a unique large-scale dataset from Ethiopia—one of the largest countries in Africa that has been transforming rapidly—we look at the production of vegetables and dairy products. We find a strong association between farm size and partial productivity measured in terms of output, value of outputs and profit per hectare/cow, with productivity twice to four times as high for larger farms. These farms have substantially higher input expenditures as well as differences in farm technologies compared to small ones. Our findings have important implications for the debate on the role of small farms and nutritional improvements in the continent.

JEL Classification: O13, Q12, Q18

Developing a food safety consumer experience scale: Qualitative insights from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Vietnam

Objectives: Unsafe food contributes to 600 million cases of foodborne illness and 420,000 deaths annually. Existing methods used to evaluate food safety risks overlook consumers’ perspectives coming from their everyday experiences that influence their food choices. Our objective was to develop a cross-culturally appropriate and user-friendly scale to assess consumers’ experiences related to food safety in low- and middle-income countries. This study identified the constructs that constitute the experiences of food safety that the scale should reflect.

Methods: In-depth interviews were conducted with urban households in Bangladesh (n=51), Ethiopia (n=50), and Vietnam (n=41). Eligible households had children aged 2–5 years and members serving as primary food purchasers, preparers, and caregivers. Interviews explored attitudes, perceptions, and lived experiences related to food safety. Data were analyzed using a constant comparative method.

Results: Respondents expressed awareness of biological and chemical contaminants in foods. Concerns about chemical additives and food adulteration were common, fueled by beliefs that these hazards cause chronic illnesses. Personal and familial experiences with foodborne illness reinforced caution when buying foods. Religious and cultural beliefs shaped how respondents explained and responded to food safety concerns, with some attributing illness symptoms to spiritual causes. Trust in food vendors was rooted in reputation, visible cleanliness, and willingness to rectify issues (e.g., exchange items). Respondents differentiated their extent of scrutinizing safety based on food type: staples such as rice and pulses were assessed more by vendor credibility, whereas perishables such as fish and meat underwent direct, detailed inspections. Low transparency in food sourcing and how vendors prepared foods were persistent concerns.

Conclusions: Trust, perceived transparency, risk perceptions, and past incidents shaped consumers’ mental representations and behaviors related to food safety. Interviews underscored the centrality of context and sensory-based quality indicators, suggesting that scenario-based assessments are more appropriate than generic risk-reduction items.

Regional developments: Middle East and North Africa [in 2025 GFPR]

Over the past 50 years, food and agricultural policy in the Middle East and North Africa has alternated between the dual aims of prioritizing efficiency and economic growth, and ensuring national security through food self-sufficiency and broad-based provision of staple commodities. This chapter summarizes the historical trends in policies and outcomes as the region moved from heavy state interference to a period of liberalization, first examining agricultural production and related policies and then consumers and food and nutrition policy, before concluding with emerging policy issues and research priorities.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Regional developments: Africa [in 2025 GFPR]

Africa’s food systems have undergone significant transformations over the past four decades, with notable improvements in agricultural productivity and food security, but persistent challenges remain. This chapter examines how Africa’s agrifood policy landscape has evolved over time in response to complex challenges, including food insecurity, climate change, and socioeconomic disparities. It explores how IFPRI and other international organizations have offered research-based solutions to Africa’s development challenges, as well as underscoring the necessity of systemic, inclusive, and evidence-based approaches to address the agrifood system challenges projected for 2050.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Short-term and long-term effects of cash for work: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial in Tunisia

JEL Classification: O12, O15

Country profile – Nigeria: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

This country brief supports GCAN's goal of integrating gender, climate resilience, and nutrition considerations into policy by providing policymakers, program officers, and researchers with an analysis of Nige ria’s current situation and policy objectives in these areas. A recent study from Andam et al. (2023) underscores the vital role of Nigeria’s agrifood system in the country's economy. In 2019, Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stood at $469.3 billion, supported by a workforce of 66.8 million people (Andam et al. 2023). The agrifood sector made a substantial contribution, generating $175.3 billion in GDP and providing employment for 41.9 million individuals. This sector encompasses both primary agriculture and off-farm activities, including processing, trade, transport, food services, and input supply. Primary agriculture alone contributed $103.3 billion to GDP and employed 32.2 million people. Off-farm agrifood activities contributed approximately 40 percent of the agrifood GDP and 20 percent of agrifood employment (Andam et al. 2023).

How misinformation and mismatched expectations reduce adoption of improved seeds

Often presented as game-changing solutions, agricultural technologies like improved seeds or fertilisers can lead farmers to adopt one at the expense of others, only to disadopt when the expected gains, based on overly optimistic assumptions about reduced need for complementary inputs, fail to materialise.

Informing CAADP 2026–2035: What a decade of IFPRI Research in Africa tells us

This policy brief distills insights from a decade of IFPRI’s research and engagement across 54 African countries, offering a strategic synthesis to inform the Kampala 2026–2035 implementation phase of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). Drawing from almost 5,700 publications between 2015 and 2025, and using a combination of natural language processing (NLP), deep learning algorithms and rule-based approaches, the review maps key findings against CAADP’s six strategic objectives: (1) intensifying sustainable food production, agro-industrialization, and trade; (2) boosting investment and financing for agrifood systems transformation; (3) ensuring food and nutrition security; (4) advancing inclusivity and equitable livelihoods; (5) building resilient agrifood systems; and (6) strengthening agrifood systems governance. By aligning evidence with strategic priorities, this synthesis aims to sharpen the research and policy agenda needed to accelerate agricultural transformation, ensure food security, and deepen resilience across the continent. The review reveals areas of significant progress—such as advances innovative finance, nutrition policy, social protection design, gender equity, and market functioning—while also exposing enduring gaps in data, investment diagnostics, and imple mentation capacity. The brief is thus both a stocktaking and a springboard, harnessing what is known to guide the next phase of CAADP.

Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan

This study investigates the determinants of access to safe water and reliable energy for households in Sudan using nationally representative data from a recent labor market survey. The results show that urbanization, education, and wealth significantly enhance the access households have to these essential services, while rural areas and less developed regions, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, face substantial challenges. Access to reliable energy correlates with better food security and health outcomes within households, and improved access to safe water significantly enhances the health of household members. Policy recommendations supported by these research results include targeted rural infrastructure investments, educational improvements, and regional interventions to address disparities in household access to safe water and reliable energy across Sudan.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: April 2025

This report presents an overview of trends in prices, availability, and quality of key commodities in Sudan during February, March, and April 2025. It covers cereals, vegetables, animal products, and essential goods such as cooking oil, sugar, agricultural inputs (fertilizers and seeds), fuels, and exchange rates. The analysis reveals notable spatial and temporal disparities in prices, availability, and quality across Sudan’s 18 states.
Cereal prices showed mixed patterns: wheat prices rose from February to March before declining in April, while sorghum and millet prices fluctuated. Wheat flour prices remained relatively stable. Spatial disparities were particularly evident for wheat and wheat flour. Traders consistently reported stable availability and quality for most cereals. Vegetable prices varied significantly. Tomato prices remained stable, potato prices were consistently higher than other vegetables, and onion prices declined steadily before rising slightly at the end of April. Spatial and temporal differences in prices were also prominent.
Meat prices continued to increase steadily, while fish prices fluctuated in line with availability. Egg prices rose gradually, while milk prices, after some initial fluctuations, declined steadily in March and April. Among agricultural inputs, wheat seed prices remained stable, whereas local sorghum seed prices rose consistently. Fertilizer prices fluctuated: urea prices experienced a modest increase fol lowed by a decline, while DAP prices rose sharply in April. Fuel prices demonstrated both temporal and spatial variability. Prices were notably higher in the parallel market, while diesel and petrol prices in the regular market were more stable, though regional differences persisted. Finally, the exchange rate analysis showed a continued premium in the parallel market, underscoring persistent foreign currency supply constraints.

How aid cuts could make vulnerable communities even less resilient to climate change

As global temperatures rise and climate-related disasters become more frequent, the need to adapt is rapidly increasing. That need for adaptation – from adjusting farming practices to diversifying livelihoods and strengthening infrastructure – is most acute in vulnerable low- and middle-income countries such as Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Haiti and Vietnam.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: March 2025

Sudan’s market systems continue to face severe disruptions due to ongoing conflict, political instability, and economic disruptions. These challenges have led to volatile prices, limited availability of essential commodities, and rising food and fuel costs, especially in conflict-affected areas. Insecurity, infrastructure damage, and transport disruptions further exacerbate price disparities, making key goods increasingly unaffordable for vulnerable populations.
To monitor these dynamics, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is implementing a nationwide market monitoring initiative covering 36 markets, two in each of Sudan’s 18 states. The initiative tracks prices, availability, and quality of essential commodities, monitors exchange rate movements, and gathers qualitative insights from market actors. Each month, data is collected in two rounds: the first during the first two weeks, and the second during the last two weeks. In each round, five merchants per market are interviewed using structured questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. This fortnightly approach enables timely and consistent tracking of market trends.

Synopsis: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development in Rwanda

The study systematically ranks investment options in the agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness across multiple development outcomes.
Investments in SME processors and traders and livestock extension are the most cost-effective for promoting agrifood GDP growth and employment.
SMEs and livestock services together with seed systems and credit access contribute positively to social outcomes (poverty, undernourishment, and diet).
The analysis finds a trade-off between economic gains and environmental outcomes— higher GDP effects often come with greater environmental costs.
The Rwandan case demonstrates a slight shift in the relative cost-effectiveness of investments when accounting for historical climatic risks.
The study emphasizes the need for data-driven investment planning, climate-aware policies, and balancing short-term gains with long-term sustainability objectives.

Malaria infection confounds inflammation-adjusted micronutrient biomarker concentrations in children and women in Malawi: a secondary analysis of the 2015/2016 Malawi micronutrient survey

Inflammation and infections such as malaria affect concentrations of many micronutrient biomarkers and hence estimates of nutritional status. We aimed to assess the relationship between malaria infection and micronutrient biomarker concentrations in pre-school children (PSC), school-age children (SAC) and women of reproductive age (WRA) in Malawi and examine the potential role of malarial immunity on the relationship between malaria and micronutrient biomarkers. Data from the 2015/2016 Malawi micronutrient survey were used. The associations between current or recent malaria infection, detected by rapid diagnostic test and concentration of serum ferritin, soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR), zinc, serum folate, red blood cell folate and vitamin B12 were estimated using multivariable linear regression. Factors related to malarial immunity including age, altitude and presence of hemoglobinopathies were examined as effect modifiers. Serum ferritin, sTfR and zinc were adjusted for inflammation using the BRINDA method. Malaria infection was associated with 68 % (95 % CI 51, 86), 28 % (18, 40) and 34 % (13, 45) greater inflammation-adjusted ferritin in PSC, SAC and WRA, respectively (P < 0·001 for each). In PSC, the positive association was stronger in younger children, high altitude and children who were not carriers of the sickle cell trait. In PSC and SAC, sTfR was elevated (+ 25 % (16, 29) and + 15 % (9, 22) respectively, P < 0·001). Serum folate and erythrocyte folate were elevated in WRA with malaria (+ 18 % (3, 35) and + 11 % (1, 23), P = 0·01 and P = 0·003 respectively). Malaria affects the interpretation of micronutrient biomarker concentrations, and examining factors related to malarial immunity may be informative.

The political economy of large-scale food fortification in West Africa: Pathways toward harmonization

For two decades, there have been ongoing efforts at harmonizing large-scale food fortification (LSFF) policies and procedures in West Africa. Despite some notable successes, micronutrient deficiencies in the region remain elevated. To identify which bottlenecks exist towards greater harmonization on LSFF, this study adopted a political economy perspective to consider areas of contention over interests, ideas, and institutions between domestic stakeholders, across countries, and within regional bodies. The study finds that West African governments have made impressive strides with harmonizing their LSFF standards and committing to the importance of fortification as one of several instruments for improving micronutrient deficiencies. Likewise, the donor and technical community have worked closely with the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), as well as specialized institutions of ECOWAS, such as the West African Health Organization (WAHO), to advance the LSFF agenda, support the private sector and national fortification alliances, and identify new food vehicles for fortification. At the same time, incoherent trade, tax, and macroeconomic policies in a context of multiple shocks and crises, protectionist impulses aimed at building up domestic agro-industries, lack of financial commitment to LSFF structures in the absence of donor support, and uneven financial contributions to ECOWAS and WAHO remain barriers to progress. Learning from these lessons and considering how to address LSFF from a holistic perspective that accounts for West Africa’s unique demographic, economic, and political characteristics will not only benefit extant harmonization efforts in ECOWAS but also help with broader continental alignment on fortification under the African Union’s 2025-2036 food and nutrition security strategy.

Unlocking agricultural efficiency: A stochastic frontier analysis of smallholder farmers in Rwanda

Agriculture is central to Rwanda's economy, supporting the livelihood of about 70% of the population and contributing significantly to GDP. Smallholder farmers face many production challenges such as limited use of modern inputs, low productivity, and vulnerability to climate change. Despite efforts like the Crop Intensification Program and the Smart Nkunganire System, which aim to en hance access to resources, agricultural productivity remains suboptimal for Rwanda smallholder farmers. This study seeks to identify specific sources of technical inefficiencies among smallholder farmers, focusing on the total value of farmer’s crop output. By using stochastic frontier analysis, a robust quantitative method for separating inefficiencies and random shocks, the study assessed
the overall technical efficiency of smallholder farmers in Rwanda and identified the key factors influencing crop output value. The analysis reveals that fertilizer use, pesticide application, labor, seed use, and land size are key drivers of crop output value. This research further indicates that farmers operate at only 45% of their potential productivity, given the same level of input and technology, highlighting substantial room for efficiency improvements to reach the optimal output value frontier. Furthermore, additional analysis emphasizes the critical role of socioeconomic factors in shaping technical efficiency. The findings highlight the need for targeted interventions to optimize resource utilization, streamline labor allocation and strengthen access to extension services and government initiatives aimed at boosting agricultural production value. These strategies can substantially improve technical efficiency, enabling farmers to achieve optimal crop output values and advancing Rwanda's agricultural development objectives.

Rwanda: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present research findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Rwanda’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple devel opment outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at expanding agrifood GDP and employment, while extension and advisory services on livestock and climate emerge as the most efficient farmer-facing investments. However, crop ex tension services rank least in cost-effectiveness for economic and social outcomes. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options
overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Ethiopia: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Ethiopia’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) traders and processors are shown to be the most cost effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Extension services for livestock, credit for farmers, R&D (agronomy), and safety nets also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Understanding the policy landscape for climate action in Kenya: Potential for integration of gender, nutrition, and improved impact monitoring

As in other low- and middle-income countries, more intense climate hazards and a warmer climate negatively impact agricultural production and livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Kenya, as well as household diets, national food security and gender equality. Improving climate policy and investments to address these negative impacts requires suitable policy and investment structures that are, moreover, adequately networked among each other and with equity and nutrition efforts for effective climate action. This paper explores the institutional arrangements of the climate change policy landscape in Kenya by mapping governmental and non-governmental actors involved in climate action and how connected and influential they are. Data for this paper was collected through two participatory workshops, one at the national level and one at the county level, using the Net-Map approach. This approach provides novel insights into the highly complex climate policy landscape in Kenya. Although several climate policies and actions are in place in the country, workshop participants called for better coordination across climate change actors and stronger implementation capacity. The recent structural changes in the donor landscape might be an entry point for better alignment and coordination among different actor groups, and specifically among different government actor groups. A lack of operational monitoring and evaluation systems was also considered an important impediment to assess to what extent women and other vulnerable groups are benefitting from climate action in the country.

Uganda: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Uganda’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their impact on environmental footprints, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at expanding agrifood GDP and employment, while livestock extension services rank highest among the farmer-facing investments. Most R&D related interventions rank lowest in terms of cost-effectiveness at achieving economic and social outcomes. However, many cost-effec tive investments have relatively high environmental footprints, highlighting tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and when ex treme production shocks occur.

Maize yield responsiveness and profitability of fertilizer: New survey evidence from six African countries

Enhancing maize productivity growth is pivotal for revolutionizing the agrifood system in Africa, with inorganic fertilizer serving as a fundamental input for catalyzing this progress. However, concerns are mounting about the low and decreasing yield response and profitability of inorganic fertilizer use, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study aims to refine yield response and profitability models by incorporating recent data from nationally representative and panel datasets spanning six countries. Most countries exhibited low nitrogen yield responsiveness (4–7 kg), while Ghana and Uganda showed higher responsiveness (15–20 kg) per additional 1 kg of nitrogen. Analysis of fertilizer-to-maize price ratios from 2010 to 2023 showed a downward trend, with spikes in 2022 in Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. Overall, except for those years, the data suggest a trend of increasingly favorable price incentives for fertilizer use. Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda experienced declines in the fertilizer-to-maize price ratio. Increasing inorganic fertilizer use would be profitable in Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Uganda at current market prices, but not in Malawi or Tanzania. Subsidies in Malawi and Tanzania have boosted profitability, but these may not be necessary in Ghana, Nigeria, or Uganda, which already have favorable price incentives; Malawi could benefit by substantially reducing its 80 percent subsidy while maintaining decent price incentives and farm profits. The paper proposes policy options based on factors influencing yield responsiveness and potential improvements drawn from new modeling and synthesis of the literature.