PUBLICATIONS

Zinc distribution in structural components of high kernel‑zinc maize and its retention after milling

High kernel‑zinc maize (HKZM) has the potential to contribute to addressing zinc deficiency in regions with high maize consumption, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, milling HKZM may lead to loss of zinc when removing the pericarp and embryo. This study evaluated the zinc distribution in kernel components of HKZM maize grown in different environments, and examined how milling affected its zinc concentration. The zinc concentration in HKZM lines was 27.0–30.7 μg g−1 while in conventional maize it was 19.5–22.6 μg g−1. Zinc in maize endosperm represented 20.5 to 28.2 % of the total kernel zinc while that in the embryo represented 68.1 to 75.7 %. HKZM retained 43 % of its kernel zinc after milling, resulting in flour with 5 μg g−1 higher zinc concentration compared to regular maize flour. Environmental factors had a significant effect on kernel zinc concentrations. Maize grain from commercial mills had 21 μg g−1 zinc, with zinc losses of 22 % to 65 % during milling, resulting in flours with 6–10 μg g−1 of zinc. While HKZM shows promise in alleviating zinc deficiency, its anticipated impact may be limited in regions where refined maize is frequently used for making foods. The development of maize varieties with higher zinc concentration in the endosperm, along with promoting increased consumption of less refined maize products can boost zinc intake for deficient populations.

Beyond the bids: Lessons from farmers' reflections on Vickrey auctions of sweetpotato vines in Rwanda

Context
The use of high-quality seed can significantly enhance nutrition, food security, poverty alleviation, and climate change adaptation in rural farming communities. Economic valuation methods can be used to assess farmers' demand for such seed. However, the reproductive biology of seed and the social and economic institutions surrounding their production and exchange vary widely across crops and regions.

Objective
It is important to understand how such contextual factors relate to the assumptions that underly economic valuation methods. In this paper, we qualitatively evaluated an experimental Vickery auction conducted in Rwanda which aimed to identify farmers demand for disease-free vines of orange-fleshed sweet potato rich in Vitamin A.

Method
Data were gathered through observations of and in-depth interviews with participating farmers, focusing on their experiences, strategies, and motivations during the auction. We examined farmers' reflections on the experimental auctions—rather than the auction results themselves—to understand context-specificity and methodological replicability.

Results and conclusion
Our findings reveal that farmers assigned value to the vines in diverse ways, shaped by personal experience, social norms, and local exchange practices—often diverging from the assumptions of auction theory. These dynamics raise concerns about the validity and reliability of the auction outcomes.

Significance
Although auctions are an increasingly popular tool to evaluate the value of seeds and traits in smallholder farming systems, and although considerable effort has been put into examining mechanisms leading to product overestimation and underestimation in auction settings, this study offers a novel qualitative perspective that uncovers several reasons that explain deviations in the context of an experimental Vickrey auction for sweetpotato vines in rural Rwanda. Our findings highlight the challenges of using auction-based methods in capturing demand when used to value goods that are reproductive, socially embedded, and exchanged outside formal markets.

Preventing relapse from wasting: the role of sociodemographic, child feeding, and health care determinants and of wasting prevention interventions in Burkina Faso and Mali

Background
Relapse among children treated for wasting is a major concern. We estimated the frequency and determinants of relapse to wasting in two populations exposed to PROMIS, an integrated wasting prevention and screening program.
Methods
Using longitudinal data from PROMIS trials in Burkina Faso and Mali, we calculated the incidence rate and period prevalence of relapse to wasting within 6 months in children who had ≥1 wasting episode ending when they were ≥6 months old for which they were treated and recovered (NBurkina Faso=247; NMali=220). We used backward elimination to select a multivariable model of sociodemographic, nutrition- and health-related determinants of relapse. We also evaluated if prevention interventions (behavior change communication (BCC) and/or small quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS) were associated with relapse, adjusting for confounders and trial arm.
Results
Relapse incidence was 2.6 per child-year in Burkina Faso (N=291 episodes) and 1.6 per child-year in Mali (N=300 episodes). In both countries, being fed the recommended food frequency or iron-rich foods after recovering from wasting was associated with lower risk of relapse. In Mali, longer wasting episodes, lack of minimally diverse diet consumption, and several caregiver/household characteristics were associated with lower risk of relapse. In both countries, receipt of BCC after recovery from wasting was associated with lower risk of relapse (Incidence rate ratio [IRR]Burkina Faso = 0.51 [95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.30, 0.86]; IRRMali = 0.26 [95% CI = 0.11, 0.65]), as was receipt of SQ-LNS (IRRBurkina Faso = 0.33 [95% CI = 0.16, 0.70]; (IRRMali = 0.43 [95% CI = 0.19, 0.94]), after adjustments.
Conclusion
Children being discharged from wasting treatment are a well-defined vulnerable population who stand to benefit from targeted post-discharge preventive interventions. BCC that includes advice on optimal infant and young child feeding practices and SQ-LNS may help prevent wasting relapse in at-risk children.

Economy-wide implications of increasing school enrolment in Sub-Saharan Africa

The high number of out-of-school youth in developing countries constitutes a pressing challenge with profound implications for attaining sustainable development. Sudan, for example, has the fifth-highest number globally while struggling with sluggish economic growth and high youth unemployment. In this study, we assess the potential economy-wide implications of options to enhance enrolment among youth by lowering private household spending on education and training services, taking Sudan as a case study. Cost reduction is considered for: a) primary education, b) secondary education, c) primary and secondary education, and d) all formal educational cycles and vocational training. We developed a recursive-dynamic single-country Computable General Equilibrium (STAGE-Edu) model that captures vocational training, secondary education by type (vocational and non-vocational), and education and training choices at different levels, with broad coverage of existing bridges between education and training. STAGE-Edu also establishes endogenous and consistent linkages between the educational and training system and the skill levels of the labour force through six-stage nested production functions. The findings suggest that cost reduction in primary education significantly reduces the number of out-of-school children and enhances long-term economic growth. However, it increases dropouts from post-primary education and vocational training. In contrast, cost reduction for both primary and secondary education improves enrolment in the tertiary education cycle and promotes the overall skill composition. Funding such cost reductions from foreign development aid and grants yields higher economic benefits than increasing domestic taxes.

JEL Classification: C68; H52; I25; O55

Simulated impact of vitamin A-fortified sugar on dietary adequacy and association of usual sugar intake with plasma and breast milk retinol among lactating Zambian women

In Zambia, mandatory sugar fortification with vitamin A (VA) has been implemented, but its impact on VA inadequacy and status has yet to be assessed. This study evaluated the contribution of VA-fortified sugar to dietary VA adequacy and the relationship between dietary intakes and VA status in 243 lactating women, based on 24-h dietary recalls in Mkushi, Zambia. We estimated usual intake distributions and the prevalence of VA adequacy using the National Cancer Institute (NCI) method across five scenarios: without sugar fortification; with fortification at 3.1 or 8.8 mg/kg (median levels previously measured in Mkushi); at 10 mg/kg (the minimum legal requirement at the household level), and at 15 mg/kg (the minimum legal requirement at the factory level). We applied the regression calibration method to examine associations of usual intake of sugar and dietary VA with plasma and breast milk retinol concentrations. Without fortified sugar, the estimated prevalence of dietary VA inadequacy was 83% (standard error [SE]: 6). Projected reductions in VA inadequacy were 7 (SE: 6), 24 (SE: 14), 30 (SE: 15) and 47 (SE: 18) percentage points for sugar fortification at 3.1, 8.8, 10 and 15 mg/kg, respectively. Usual sugar intake was not significantly associated with plasma or breast milk retinol concentrations. The potential impacts of sugar fortification on VA intakes are limited if the programme is not implemented as planned. Even if the target fortification levels are achieved (10 mg/kg), sugar fortification alone is unlikely to eliminate dietary VA

Heavy on plans, light on delivery: The structural failures of Ethiopia's nutrition policies

Ethiopia's development ambitions rest on the foundation of a healthy population, yet its nutrition sector remains stalled despite decades of planning and investment. Nearly 38% of children under five are stunted, and food insecurity continues to affect millions. Landmark initiatives like the National Food and Nutrition Policy and the Seqota Declaration demonstrate strong political will—but implementation and scale-up falters due to entrenched structural failures. At the core of this breakdown is an overstretched and under-resourced frontline workforce. Health Extension Workers, while committed, are burdened with wide-ranging responsibilities, and lack the specialized training needed for effective nutrition service delivery. As a result, national strategies often collapse at the community level, where change is most urgently needed. This is further compounded by fragmented coordination. Despite the multisectoral nature of malnutrition—spanning health, agriculture, education, and social protection—ministries and partners frequently work in silos, sending conflicting messages to the same households. Meanwhile, valuable research and data remain disconnected from policy and program implementation, limiting the system's responsiveness and accountability. The path forward requires more than incremental fixes. Ethiopia needs specialized community nutrition workers to bridge the last-mile gap, a high-level coordination mechanism to align sectoral actions, and agile policies grounded in real-time evidence. Without these structural reforms, the burden of malnutrition will continue to erode the country's human capital and economic potential. This is not just a health crisis—it is a critical bottleneck to national progress. The time for structural transformation is now.

Miracle seeds: Biased expectations, complementary input use, and the dynamics of smallholder technology adoption

To fully benefit from new agricultural technologies like improved seed varieties, significant investment in complementary inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides, and practices such as systematic planting, irrigation, and weeding are also required. Farmers may fail to recognize the importance of these complements, leading to disappointing crop yields and outputs and, eventually, dis-adoption of the improved variety. Using a field experiment, we test an information intervention among smallholder maize farmers in eastern Uganda that points out these complementarities. We find that farmers adopt less after they have been sensitized about the need to use complementary inputs to unlock the adoption premium. We rationalize this finding with a simple theoretical model where farmers have mis-specified mental models of the technology production function and conclude that most farmers in our sample do indeed believe in miracle seeds.

Sidama Coffee Agronomy Program: Impact report

Coffee is Ethiopia’s most important export crop, and it constitutes an important source of livelihood for an estimated 15 million people across the value chain, most of whom are poor smallholder farmers. While coffee production and exports generally increased over the last decade or so, several constraints are still keeping the sector from attaining its full potential. Low-yielding, aged coffee trees and poor farm management and agronomic practices are among the main constraints. Between 2019 and 2022, TechnoServe (TNS)—in collaboration with Max und Ingeburg Herz Stiftung/HereWeGrow (HWG)— implemented a 25-month coffee agronomy training program in the Sidama region of Ethiopia that comprised a package of interventions to address these constraints and increase smallholders’ coffee productivity and income. In particular, the program covered five woredas/districts (Aleta Chuko, Dale, Bona Zuria, Hawela, Shebedino) and reached 47,759 farm households in two cohorts (2019 and 2020).

Impact of armed conflict on crop production in greater Khartoum, Sudan

Since April 2023, Sudan has been engulfed in a violent conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, resulting in widespread displacement, destruction of infrastructure, and the collapse of essential services. As with agricultural production in rural communities across Sudan, urban and peri-urban farming systems in Greater Khartoum, the area around the capital city, have also been harmed by the conflict.

An integrated assessment of the impact of conflict on crop production in Greater Khartoum was conducted using recent satellite imagery from 2024/25 winter season (October 2024 to March 2025), along with household-level data from the 2024 IFPRI Smallholder Farmers Survey covering the 2023/24 winter season (October 2023 to March 2024). Key findings from the assessment include:
Decline in cropping activities: Analysis of satellite imagery showed clear evidence of a decline in cropping activities between December 2022 and December 2024. Land use analysis showed a 22 percent reduction in total cultivated area over this period. Notably, land under center-pivot irrigation declined by 87 percent. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis showed a 36 percent decline in vegetated land, indicating both reduced cultivation and plant cover.
Widespread disruption to farming: Thirty-six percent of the farmers surveyed in Khartoum state reported not cultivating any crops in the 2023/24 winter season primarily because of conflict-related challenges that they could not overcome. Of those that did farm, over three-quarters reported that the conflict had disrupted their agricultural activities.

Shifts in crop selection and agricultural input use: Vegetables and fruits are now the most commonly grown crops, followed by fodder and beans. Less than one-quarter of farmers now use improved seeds, largely due to conflict-related input shortages. However, despite the conflict, access to fertilizer markets has been maintained— 87 percent of farmers reported that they continue to use fertilizer.
Localized resilience: Some areas of Greater Khartoum, particularly Karari locality, have maintained relatively high levels of cultivation, reflecting localized resilience and reasonable safety and access to agricultural landholdings.

By combining spatial and socioeconomic data, the study highlights the complex and multidimensional nature of agricultural disruption in conflict-affected areas, like Greater Khartoum. Several policy responses and other actions needed for recovery and to strengthen the resilience of affected farmers are suggested by the study findings:
Promote resilient and inclusive farming systems and agricultural value chains.
Restore agricultural infrastructure and input supply chains.
Improve farmer mobility and market access.
Provide emergency assistance and recovery packages to farmers.
Strengthen agricultural monitoring systems.

Senegal at a crossroads: Prioritizing large-scale food fortification under financial uncertainty

Senegal long has been committed to large-scale food fortification (LSFF), especially for salt, edible oil, and wheat flour, bolstered by a set of multi-sectoral nutrition strategies and institutional coordinating mechanisms. Yet, due to recent macroeconomic pressures and reductions in donor funding, the country is at a crossroads, revealing key gaps in the sustainability of its current LSFF program even as new vehicles, such as rice and bouillon, are emerging on the fortification policy agenda. Based on interviews with over two dozen public, private, and civil society sector actors, we utilize the Political Economy Diagnostic of Large Scale Food Fortification (PEDAL) to highlight strengths of the Senegalese LSFF program and weaknesses that need to be prioritized. Among the latter include the stalled financing for the national fortification alliance, known as COSFAM, insufficient testing materials and laboratories, and rising costs of premix and raw materials. Several innovations were promoted by respondents to address some of these challenges, including either the decentralization or regionalization of laboratory capabilities, a central buying center for premixes, and online data platforms to track compliance. By reflecting on Senegal’s long experience and current challenges with scaling its fortification efforts, the analysis provides useful insights to countries with more nascent fortification programs about the prerequisites for ensuring LSFF sustainability.

Women's empowerment in Ghana's agriculture sector: Insights from the Women's Empowerment in Agriculture Index

Key messages
• Gender disparities in agriculture persist in Ghana, particularly in land ownership, credit access, and decision-making power, limiting women’s productivity and contribution to food security.
• The Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) has been instrumental in revealing these gender gaps in northern Ghana, but similar data are lacking for other regions, hindering national-level policy responsiveness.
• Targeted interventions, such as securing land rights for women, improving access to financial services, and promoting participation in farmer-based organizations, are critical to advancing women’s empowerment and achieving gender-equitable agricultural development.

Deploying high-frequency market data to estimate the cost of recommended diets: Recent trends in Rwanda

This study estimates the cost and affordability of recommended diets in Rwanda from April 2019 to December 2024 using high-frequency market price data. By deploying standardised methods for healthy diet costs to eSoko data (www.esoko.gov.rw), and local food based dietary guidelines, we calculate the monthly cost of recommended diets at the district level. Key findings reveal significant dietary cost fluctuations, with nominal costs increasing 67% between June 2022 and October 2023, coinciding directly with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The research also identifies affordability challenges; by mid-2023, and again in late 2024, where up to 70% of wage earners could not afford a recommended diet. Spatial variations were also evident, with diet costs differing between rural and urban areas, and across districts bordering different countries, with the highest dietary costs observed along the Democratic Republic of Congo border and the least expensive along the border of Tanzania. Utilizing Rwanda's eSoko data platform, the study demonstrates the value of high-frequency, spatially explicit data for understanding food system dynamics. The findings call for policy actions to consider dietary affordability, particularly for low-income groups, and suggest that Rwanda's data collection approach could serve as a benchmark for other countries.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: July 2025

This report analyzes market dynamics in Sudan between February and July 2025, focusing on prices, availability, quality, fuel, exchange rates, and traders’ perceptions of supply, demand, profits, and market conditions.

Between February and July 2025, Sudan’s markets showed mixed trends and sharp regional disparities. Cereal prices were mostly stable: wheat held steady with a short rise in early July, sorghum increased in June then stabilized, millet fluctuated slightly, and wheat flour fell in early July before rising sharply. Wheat and wheat flour availability improved, while sorghum and millet availability declined marginally.

Gender attitudes in agriculture and positivity bias: A survey experiment in four countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Extensive prior research has demonstrated that reducing gender discrimination enhances women’s empowerment, promotes more inclusive livelihoods, increases agricultural productivity, and improves other development outcomes. This study aims to contribute to documenting and informing the measurement of gender attitudes that relate directly to reaching, benefiting, and empowering women through agricultural innovations. By analyzing data from 8,051 survey respondents across study sites in Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Rwanda, our findings emphasize both commonalities and differences in gender attitudes across different contexts. Furthermore, by including a survey-based experiment during data collection, we assess whether gender-attitude statements vary depending on whether they are presented in a positive frame (focusing on equality) or in a negative frame (focusing on inequality). On average, rural women and men respondents across all countries supported more than half of the gender-equality statements. Some gender-inequality attitudes persisted across the four countries but varied in magnitude and by location, age group, and specific statement or theme. Framing matters: respondents exposed to a positive framing supported 16 percent more gender-equality statements than those exposed to a negative framing. The study highlights two main implications. First, the findings indicate the importance of considering both restrictive
attitudes and those that reflect gender-equality opportunities as being in the vanguard. Accordingly, gender-focused interventions should adopt strategies that challenge normative
views of women as supporting rather than leading actors in agriculture and economic activities. Second, gender-attitude measures do not perfectly align with country-level gender-equality
indicators or with empowerment at the intrahousehold level. They therefore capture a distinct dimension and merit their own indicators.

Digital literacy training to promote diffusion of digital agricultural tools to smallholder farmers: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Egypt

Despite growing enthusiasm about the potential of digital innovations to transform agrifood systems, adoption among smallholder farmers in Africa remains low and heterogeneous. While the proliferation of digital tools targeting smallholder farmers is encouraging, the vast majority remain at pilot stages, facing important demand and supply-side barriers to adoption. This paper evaluates alternative digital literacy interventions designed to address these demand-side barriers. Following a Training of Trainers (TOT) model, we designed and implemented a randomized control trial to test three variants of digital literacy training: standard classroom-based digital literacy training (T1), digital training complemented (preceded) by a video-based play (T2), digital training complemented (preceded) by a live community play (T3), and a control group (C). We find that all variants of digital training significantly increased the uptake and utilization of digital tools by smallholder farmers. Specifically, the standard digital training alone increased uptake by 20 percentage points and utilization by 26 percentage points. The interventions also significantly enhanced farmer trust in digital tools by 8–13 percentage points. Surprisingly, for some outcomes, the digital literacy training alone outperformed the combined approaches that incorporated edutainment nudges. We explore possible explanations, including group size effects and social influence dynamics during the plays. We also document heterogeneity in the impact of these interventions across farmers’ gender and age. Our findings offer insights for designing cost effective and scalable interventions to build digital capabilities and trust among smallholder farmers.

Malawi can end hunger after the 2025 elections if bold steps are taken to transform food systems

Malawi has a history of peaceful democratic transitions. Since the advent of multiparty politics in 1994, power has regularly shifted between rival parties. Citizens and institutions have upheld electoral democratic norms, from respecting term limits to rerunning elections after irregularities.

Yet, democratic elections haven’t translated into economic prosperity, nor into strong economic institutions. Malawi remains the world’s poorest conflict-free nation. At the last count in 2019, 70% of Malawians lived below the international poverty line of US$2.15 per day. More than half of Malawi’s residents are deprived in many, overlapping ways.

Aligning AfCFTA and CAADP for Africa’s agrifood systems future

Key messages
AfCFTA and CAADP are Africa’s twin engines for structural transformation, but their success depends on deliberate alignment. While AfCFTA drives regional integration through trade liberalization, CAADP focuses on building resilient, inclusive, and sustainable agrifood systems.
• There is strong strategic complementarity between the two frameworks, especially in goals related to competitiveness, private sector development, and integration of regional value chains. But alignment weakens at the level of implementation—risking policy incoherence and missed opportunities.
• Tensions between AfCFTA and CAADP implementation exist around tariff liberalization, domestic policy space, and sector readiness, with risks that liberalized trade could outpace capacity of fragile agriculture sectors to compete, adapt, and benefit.
• Food security, equity, and environmental resilience—central to CAADP—are recognized in AfCFTA objectives and justify certain exceptions yet remain only weakly embedded in its implementation protocols. • Institutional silos and fragmented infrastructure strategies could undermine coherence, with risks of trade and agriculture ministries, as well as regional and continental bodies, operating separately.
• Strategic coordination, sequencing, and governance reform are essential. Alignment of AfCFTA and CAADP is not automatic—it must be designed, negotiated, and sustained to deliver on Africa’s transformation promise.
• Bridging AfCFTA and CAADP is not a one-time alignment exercise but rather a strategic process of political, institutional, and analytical interaction that must be continuously revisited and actively managed if it is to deliver on the continent’s shared aspirations for prosperity, food security, and sustainability.

Trade, not aid? The emerging donor strategy and its implications for Africa’s agrifood systems

Key messages
1. The United States is shifting its development engagement in Africa from aid to trade, emphasizing commercial partnerships, private sector development, and export-oriented growth. This shift is not unique to the United States; similar trends are being seen in Europe, China, and Japan, reflecting a global swing toward trade-first or business development strategies.
2. If well aligned, this approach can reinforce African priorities as defined in the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) 2026–2035 Strategy, the Kampala Declaration, and national agricultural investment plans. Trade-first strategies map directly onto CAADP’s six strategic objectives, including agro-industrialization, food security, inclusivity, resilience, financing, and governance.
3. These strategies can also support implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, especially through investment in trade corridors, logistics, standards systems, and regulatory cooperation. However, there are risks of misalignment if initiatives prioritize donor or investor interests over inclusive transformation, public goods provision, and food systems resilience.
4. As articulated in discussions during the recent 4th International Conference on Financing for Development, consensus is building for Africa to move beyond aid and propel growth through private sector development.
5. African governments and partners must also go beyond coordination and seriously consider the institutional and political work required to steer this opportunity toward the public good. This consideration will require investing in regulatory capacity, protecting public goods, confronting corruption and capital flight, and ensuring that trade and investment flows are transparent, accountable, and inclusive. Without this, trade-first strategies risk reinforcing existing inequalities, undermining food systems resilience, and turn-ing agrifood transformation into an elite project.
6. Strategic statecraft—rooted in evidence, integrity, and public accountability—is essential to ensure that this shift delivers not just markets but also meaningful structural transformation through industrial policy.
7. The pivot to “trade, not aid” by global partners reflects a broader retreat from long-term development commitments. But it must also be recognized as a shift in priority from shared development outcomes to strategic self-interest, market capture, and influence.
8. Africa cannot be viewed as an open market to be carved up, claimed, or divided. African countries must insist on strategic alignment, mutual accountability, and respect for national development priorities—or risk having their food systems and economic futures being shaped by agendas that do not serve them.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, August 2025

Highlights
Retail prices of maize increased on average by 16 percent in August.
Prices rose in all monitored markets across all regions of Malawi despite continued imports.
Depreciation of the Malawi kwacha (at market rates) against its Zambian and Mozambican counterparts dampened the mitigating effects of imports on maize price increases.

Displacement and development: Evidence from a graduation program for Somalia’s ultra-poor

While the population of internally displaced people around the world continues to grow, evidence around strategies to sustainably enhance livelihoods among IDPs remains extremely limited. We present findings from a randomized trial of an ultra-poor graduation program targeting IDPs in urban Baidoa, Somalia; the intervention pro-vided cash transfers, an asset transfer or technical training program, and facilitated savings groups. Our findings suggest that two years following program launch, the intervention has led to significant increases in consumption, assets, and savings; however, these effects seem to be driven almost exclusively by increased livestock production. An exploration of heterogeneous effect using generalized random forest methods further suggests that the positive effects of the treatment are dramatically larger for smaller households characterized by lower dependency ratios.

Food system institutional mapping and capacity assessment in Niger

Niger faces rampant food insecurity, malnutrition, and environmental degradation. The transformation of food systems to tackle such challenges hinges on the capacity and effectiveness of institutional frameworks. To analyze the status, challenges, and strengths of Niger’s food system, a mapping and capacity needs assessment was conducted at three levels—enabling environment, institutional, and individual. Based on the assessment, leadership concerns on strategic guidance were observed at the policy process level, with major issues such as the incidence of corruption, infrastructure constraints, and lack of reliable data availability. At the institutional level, lack of an interconnected network and mutual accountability, resource and funding constraints, and high staff turnover have adversely impacted overall institutional performance. Availability of reliable data evidence is limited or absent due to weak monitoring and evaluation systems and decentralized capacity, lack of sufficient local support, transparency issues in strategy development, and selection bias. At the individual level, there is a need to improve technical capacity on analytical thinking, quantitative and qualitative research tools, and the dissemination of communication, outreach, and information. Despite the climate change-related challenges in the country, there is less focus on environmental management, adaptation, and advanced technology implementation. The underrepresentation of key areas such as socio-cultural dynamics, governance, social protection, and cross sectoral collaboration indicates a potential lack of integration in policymaking and implementation. Overall, there is an urgent need to reallocate resources to enhance the focus on underrepresented yet critical food systems areas, enhance inter-ministerial and cross-sectoral collaboration to ensure a more integrated approach to food systems management, and incorporate social inclusion and equity considerations. Forward-looking strategies should be developed that anticipate and respond to emerging challenges such as demographic shifts, globalization effects, and technological changes.

Tourism for development: A SAM-multiplier study on sports tourism in Kenya

Tourism presents a significant, yet largely untapped, opportunity for Africa to accelerate economic development, create jobs, and foster inclusive growth. This case study for sports tourism in Kenya estimates that for every $1,000 spent by a sports tourist, a total of $3,600 is generated within the Kenyan economy, highlighting the sector's substantial linkages with other sectors, particularly the food system. By 2035, sports tourism could contribute an estimated $1.21 billion to $2.14 billion to Kenya's economy annually and support the creation of up to 237,000 new jobs. About half of these jobs are expected to benefit lower and middle-income households, supporting their livelihoods and poverty reduction. To fully realize these economic and social benefits, strategic policy interventions are crucial, including targeted investment in tourism infrastructure, marketing, and skill development; a
concerted effort to improve the overall business climate to incentivize private sector engagement; and enhanced inter-ministerial coordination between tourism, planning, agriculture and other key stakeholders. While this study focuses on economic impacts, realizing these benefits requires careful planning and sustainable practices to mitigate potential environmental and social challenges.

Women’s leadership in agrifood governance: Unpacking gender attitudes and framing effects among policymakers with evidence from India and Nigeria

Women’s leadership in policy processes and formal institutions is a powerful pathway to gender equality and women’s empowerment at scale, yet relatively little is known about how key decision-makers who influence access to these positions perceive women’s leadership and how those perceptions can shift. This paper draws on original survey data from 407 elites from 274 agrifood organizations in India and Nigeria to examine elite gender attitudes, their responsiveness to framing interventions, and how these attitudes relate to support for policies promoting gender equality. Specifically, we ask: how do elites in agrifood governance perceive women’s leadership, and how responsive are these perceptions to a targeted framing intervention? We find that elites are substantially more supportive of women’s leadership than the general public in the same countries, yet male elites in particular still express strong endorsement of the idea that men make better leaders. Over half of male elites in our sample in both countries agree that men make better political leaders. A randomized framing experiment embedded in the survey shows that men’s attitudes toward women’s leadership are significantly influenced by how women’s capabilities are framed. Messages emphasizing women’s equal rights and capabilities reduce male elites’ support for gender-unequal statements compared to frames that ask individuals to reject the idea of male superiority. Female elites’ attitudes are more supportive overall and unaffected by framing. These findings suggest that gender messaging strategies should center on positive, equality-based frames, and that elite attitudes are critical to scaling women’s leadership in agrifood governance.

The complex economics of a complete ban on child labor in the cobalt supply chain: The case of the DR Congo

Private sector promotion of agricultural technologies: Experimental evidence from Nigeria

Private sector agricultural businesses are critical for scaling new and potentially environmentally-friendly technologies, though much attention has focused on public agricultural investment. Working with a private firm, we conduct an experiment testing the effectiveness of alternative marketing strategies for promoting the adoption of urea super granule fertilizer (USG) among rice farmers in Nigeria. We disentangle the effects of price discount vouchers and the firm’s standard marketing package. We find that the firm’s standard marketing increases the adoption of USG fertilizer by 24 percentage points while reducing prilled urea utilization by 17 percentage points. Discount vouchers increase adoption of USG by an additional eight percentage points, but are not profitable for the firm. Although the adoption of USG leads to substantial environmental benefits by reducing nitrogen loss, farmer rice yields did not increase. Thus, despite the potential public benefits, private incentives facing firms and farmers are insufficient to drive scaling after a one-year intervention.

Herder-related violence, labor allocation, and the gendered response of agricultural households

Violent conflict between nomadic herders and settled agricultural communities in Nigeria occurs as both groups clash over the use of land and natural resources, in part, due to a changing climate. We generate theory and evidence to study the labor responses of individuals within agricultural households to herder-related violence and consider a “shadow of violence” mechanism, whereby previous exposure to a violent event alters labor responses to a recent event. Using panel data from 2010 through 2019, we highlight how exposure to violence can lead to differing responses in the planting or harvest seasons and among men or women. In the planting season, among both men and women living in households with no previous exposure to herder-related violence, we find that exposure (i.e., singular exposure) leads to a reduction in household enterprise work, but among households with previous exposure experience, exposure (i.e., repeated exposure) leads to an increase in household enterprise work. Meanwhile, repeated exposure to herder-related violence reduces agricultural work among men only. This leads total hours worked to decline in response to singular exposure and to increase in response to repeated exposure especially among women. In the harvest season, we find that singular exposure increases agricultural work among both men and women, but repeated exposure reduces agricultural work among men only.

JEL Codes: E26, E29, I31, Q12

Identification, characterization, and determinants of dietary patterns of low-income urban adults in Vietnam and Nigeria

Understanding dietary patterns and their determinants can steer efforts to food systems transformations required to provide sustainable healthy diets. Based on 24-h recall data and using latent class analysis, we characterized dietary patterns of adults from low-income neighborhoods in Hanoi, Vietnam and Ibadan, Nigeria (n = 385 and 344, age 18–49 years). We examined sociodemographic determinants and diet quality (diversity, non-communicable disease risk, and micronutrient adequacy) of these patterns. Three dietary patterns were identified in each country. Vietnamese patterns differed in sociodemographic characteristics and diet quality. Nigerian patterns differed in diet quality but not in sociodemographics. Understanding different consumer groups and the drivers of consumption helps to identify tailored interventions to diversify diets and improve diet quality.

Knowledge support for agrifood system transformation in Africa

Governance and policies for agrifood systems transformation in Africa

Step by step to higher yields? Adoption and impacts of a sequenced training approach for climate-smart coffee production in Uganda

Climate change further exacerbates sustainability challenges in coffee cultivation. Addressing these requires effective delivery mechanisms for sustainable farming practices, particularly in smallholder contexts. We assess a novel public-private extension approach in Uganda, called Stepwise, comprising a sequence of climate-smart and good agricultural practices in four incremental steps. Using a mixed-method approach, an index that captures adoption intensity rather than binary uptake, and survey data from 915 Robusta and Arabica coffee farmers, we find adoption levels around 46% and relatively uniform amongst treated, spillover and comparison farmers. Regional variations suggest differing benefits across coffee varieties. Qualitative findings identify barriers to adoption, including financial and labour constraints, suboptimal training delivery, and input and output market imperfections. Despite relatively low uptake, adoption of more than half of the Stepwise practices is associated with substantial gains: inverse probability weighted regression adjustment reveals a 23% increase in yield and a 32% increase in revenue. Our findings add to the adoption literature, which often highlights limited uptake, and have important policy implications. Strengthening producer organizations, delivering targeted training but also innovative solutions for access to inputs and fair pricing, hold considerable potential to increase the adoption of climate-smart practices, particularly among resource-constrained farmers.

From fragmented gains to systemic transformation

Typology of Kampala Declaration Activities

Key messages
1. The Kampala Declaration promotes multilevel coherence in agrifood systems investment
by aligning National Agricultural Investment Plans (NAIPs) and Regional Agricultural
Investment Plans (RAIPs) across Africa.
2. The green–yellow–blue typology employed in this brief is a critical innovation that
helps classify and harmonize activities by their governance level—national (blue), regional/
REC (green), and continental/multi-REC (yellow).
3. A majority of activities (132) identified in the CAADP Strategy and Action Plan
2026–2035 are multilevel (green + yellow + blue), indicating broad intent for integrated
implementation, but also emphasizing the need for strong coordination among all
governance tiers.
4. Blue-only activities (74) dominate, revealing a tendency toward national responsibility,
which still needs to be strategically aligned with REC and African Union (AU) initiatives.
5. Continental leadership remains weak, with few AU-led (yellow-only) initiatives, suggesting
a policy gap in pan-African coordination and oversight—particularly in inclusivity,
financing, and resilience.
6. Governance and trade-related interventions show the highest levels of harmonization,
making them potential models for other domains such as food security, inclusivity,
and climate resilience.
7. Inclusivity and resilience are under-prioritized at the regional and continental levels,
requiring policy reframing that treats them as shared public goods rather than local
concerns.
8. RECs are pivotal to the successful implementation of CAADP Agenda but are under-
resourced, requiring enhanced mandates, planning tools, and inter-REC collaboration
to execute cross-border and multicountry initiatives effectively.
9. Successful implementation hinges on institutional reforms, sustained political will,
and capacity building, ensuring the Declaration translates into real, coherent, and transformative
action across Africa’s agrifood systems.
CAADP KAMPALA DECLARATION POLICY NOTE 3
AUGUST

Zambia: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Zambia’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) traders and processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Expansion in extension and advisory services for livestock, rural roads, farmers credit, and seed systems also rank high. How ever, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Addressing the double burden of malnutrition in Egypt: Report on a stakeholder workshop on key challenges, policy solutions, and research opportunities

Key messages
Parliamentarians, researchers, and development practitioners shared perspectives on the double burden of malnutrition in Egypt in roundtable discussions.
Infrastructure gaps and policy and research strategy fragmentation are highlighted as challenges to accessibility of healthy food.
Aggressive ads/media environment and inefficient nutrition education programs are regarded as negatively impacting consumer behavior.
Economic factors are widely identified as a major driver of malnutrition.
Recommended solutions include raising nutrition literacy, transitioning from food subsidies to vouchers, improving nutrition services infrastructure, taxing unhealthy foods, and fortifying staple foods.
Participants called for continued dialogue between researchers and policymakers.

Leveraging project insights to strengthen WEAI for climate research

Key messages
• Measuring women’s empowerment in the context of climate change, resilience, and adaptation requires a flexible climate module—not a rigid, universal set of indicators.
• Collective agency, community involvement, and social networks are critical to climate resilience. The project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI)
should expand its climate module to better capture these community dynamics and collective actions.
• Integrating qualitative methods strengthens pro-WEAI’s effectiveness and ensures the tool is tailored to local contexts, which is essential for collecting meaningful and holistic data.

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, July 2025

Highlights
Retail prices of maize increased on average by 13 percent in July.
Prices rose in all monitored markets across all regions of Malawi despite continued imports.
Prices rose most steeply in the Southern region, increasing interregional differences.

Achieving transformational sustainable land Intensification: Integrated general equilibrium and portfolio analysis for Senegal

Feeding a growing global population while conserving natural resources remains a central challenge of Sustainable Intensification (SI). Despite decades of SI efforts, cropland expansion in many developing countries continues to accelerate, contributing to deforestation and biodiversity loss. Even with observed increases in crop yields, studies suggest that farmers continue to expand cropland, underscoring the need to consider market dynamics and the economywide effects of productivity gains. This study offers a new perspective on achieving transformational sustainable land intensification by treating farming activities as investment decisions shaped by risk and return under production and markets uncertainties. Unlike the traditional SI strategies that focus on efficiency gains through improved inputs or agronomic practices, we apply an optimal portfolio analysis to cropland allocation, aiming to enhance farming efficiency by considering market interconnections across sectors. Using Senegal as a case study, we demonstrate that adopting an optimal diversification strategy on new cropland investment could reduce land expansion needs by up to 68 % by 2030. This strategy not only helps mitigate emissions and reduce water footprint but also enhances crop biodiversity. Socioeconomic and environmental benefits are found to be greater when the country promotes high-value crops in its portfolio, such as fruits and vegetables, compared to grain crops. Our findings also contribute to ongoing debates around land-sparing versus land-sharing strategies and offer new insights into the drivers of cropland expansion in light of current global land use patterns.

The famines in Gaza and other conflict areas are a moral failure

As scientists and members of the Standing Together for Nutrition Consortium (ST4N) who have been Standing Together For Nutrition during recent crises, we use evidence of the impact of crises on nutrition to advocate for the people most affected. Now, in the face of the world's indifference, we are compelled to speak out about the horrifying human-made famine unfolding in Gaza and other conflict areas, including Sudan, South Sudan, and Yemen. Widespread starvation is deliberately used as a weapon of war,10 at a scale that we never thought possible. It is a moral failure that in 2025 more than 1·2 million people are living in Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) phase 5 (catastrophe) famine conditions—the most extreme food insecurity level according to the gold-standard IPC. These famines are not only claiming lives today, but they are also inflicting irreversible intergenerational trauma and damage.

Rural credit, food security, and resilience: An empirical evaluation from Kenya

In this paper, we examine the role of credit in enhancing rural households’ food security and resilience. In so doing, we consider resilience as a higher order capacity outcome, different from traditional development outcomes associated with households’ or individuals’ welfare. We evaluate the effectiveness of two types of agricultural production credit products, one a traditional credit and one that is linked to rainfall index insurance to protect borrowers against the adverse effects of drought. Based on a randomized controlled trial conducted in Machakos county, Kenya, we report both intent-to-treat effects as well as local average treatment effects to demonstrate the impacts of these credit products not only among borrowers, but the broader effects of expanding rural credit markets. We see generally low levels of food security resilience among our sampled households, but we find compelling evidence that credit and expanded credit markets more broadly had beneficial impacts on enhancing households’ food security and resilience. Despite the differences in the two credit products being evaluated, we do not find an appreciable difference in the effects of the two credit types, concluding that the expansion of affordable agricultural credit markets should be among the key policy tools for building resilience among rural smallholders.

A comparative study of the legal and regulatory dimension of seed sector development in Sub-Saharan Africa using regulatory systems maps: The case of Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda

Do estimates of women’s control over income and decisionmaking vary across nationally representative survey programs?

Empowering women is an explicit aim of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 5 and underpins 12 of the 17 SDGs. It is also a key objective of other pan-national agreements, such as the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Programme. Tracking global progress toward these goals requires being able to measure empowerment in ways that are consistent and comparable—both within and across countries. However, empowerment is a complex concept, hard to quantify, and even harder to standardize across contexts. Two large survey programs—Feed the Future and the Demographic Health Surveys—ask women about two aspects of empowerment, their control over income and input into decisionmaking. Each program uses a different set of questions administered to different sub-populations of women. We use data from 12 countries to show that large within-country inter-survey differences persist even after efforts to harmonize questions and samples. Where available, we compare the FTF and DHS with the Living Standards and Measurement Surveys-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture. We present several hypotheses related to survey structure and survey administration to explain these inter-survey differences. We then either test for or rule out the role of these competing theories in driving differences in levels and in associations with commonly used characteristics. Standardizing survey measures of decision making and control over income and how they are administered is important to track progress toward the SDGs; meanwhile, caution should be exercised in comparing seemingly similar survey items across survey programs.

Consumer preferences for biofortified iron beans: Results from a willingness to pay and choice experiment in Kenya

Micronutrient deficiency is a public health issue in many developing countries including Kenya. Despite the release of Biofortified Iron Beans (BIBS) to bridge the health burden, their adoption has been slow. Our study applies the willingness to pay (WTP) and choice experiments to assess preferences for BIB attributes among consumers. Using a dataset of 561 respondents, we compare the WTP among consumers in a large urban city (Nairobi) with those in a rural area (Bomet) where BIB production has been promoted. We test whether message framing (gain vs loss framed) has varied effects in the rural-urban context, following the prospect hypothesis. This study further utilises choice experiment to test the extent to which biofortification attribute is important for bean preferences. WTP results show that consumers are willing to pay a premium of 38.5 percent for the BIBs above the price of their preferred conventional beans (KES 165.7), signifying high acceptance. Rural respondents have a higher WTP (KES 71.06) than urban respondents highlighting the role of proximity to BIB production area. Consistent with prospect theory, male and urban respondents are willing to pay more under loss-frame messaging than gain-frame messaging, while female respondents are more responsive under gain-frame messaging. Surprisingly, awareness on nutrient enriched beans exhibits negative influence on WTP for the respondents exposed to gain-framed messaging. This may be due to consumers attaching public good properties to BIBs and therefore less willing to pay for biofortified traits. Results from the conditional logit model indicate biofortification is important for urban consumers and female-headed households. Based on the findings, there’s need for targeted nutrition education programming among rural-urban and male-female consumers. Considering that flatulence, cooking time and taste are main preferred attributes of BIBs, promotional messages that include these attributes could be used to accompany the biofortification messages to catalyze adoption.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Sierra Leone: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2023 Sierra Leone Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Diet quality and obesity in women of reproductive age in Northern Tanzania: a cross-sectional study

Background: Obesity is an increasing problem among women of reproductive age (WRA) in Tanzania. Objective: We described WRA's nutritional status by socio-demographic factors and assessed associations with diet quality. Methods: We analysed baseline data from a cluster-randomised controlled trial in Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions (n=2,415). Diet was assessed using a quantitative 24-hour recall. We calculated the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS; 0-49), with higher scores indicating healthier diet. General obesity was defined as body mass index (BMI)>=30 kg/m2; morbid obesity as BMI>=35 kg/m2; and central obesity as: waist circumference (WC)>=80 cm, WC>=88 cm, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR)>=0.85, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR)>=0.50, and WHR>=0.85 or BMI>=30 kg/m2. We tested associations between diet quality and nutritional status using generalised linear models controlling for age and sociodemographic factors and tested interactions to assess differential associations by age groups. Results: The prevalence of general obesity was 25.1%, morbid obesity 8.4%, and central obesity 48.2-71.6% depending on the definition. Mean GDQS was 20.9 (SD 3.9). General and central obesity were more prevalent among women who were older, less educated, had light physical labour occupations, were in the highest wealth quintile, and lived in more urbanised villages and in more food secure households. Higher GDQS was associated with lower risk of morbid obesity: risk ratio (RR) 0.97 (95% CI 0.94, 1.00). Higher GDQS was also associated with 0.25-0.27 kg/m2 lower BMI, 0.54-0.66 cm lower WC, and 0.53-0.58 cm lower hip circumference in women 30-49 years of age. Conclusion: Better diet quality emerged as a protective factor for morbid obesity and for other obesity measures among women 30-49 years of age. Our study suggests that interventions to improve diet quality in Tanzania should target women in their thirties and forties and those with lower physical activity and higher education, food security, and wealth to maximise effectiveness.

GCAN partner workshop: Report on lessons and recommendations for policy engagement and capacity strengthening

The Gender, Climate Change and Nutrition Integration Initiative (GCAN), led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), has been working to integrate gender, climate resilience, and nutrition considerations into policy, interventions, and research since 2016. Since 2023, the initiative has been working in five focal countries with support from the Gates Foundation.

Applying an integrated engagement model to support country-led food systems transformation: Insights from the SHiFT Initiative's approach in Viet Nam, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh

From 2022-2024, the CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation (SHiFT) combined high-quality nutritional and social science research with development and policy partnerships to generate innovative food systems solutions that contributed to sustainable healthy diets. Through a country-led approach, SHiFT supported the design and implementation of national food systems transformation activities in Viet Nam, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh, aiming to achieve sustainable healthy diets while also working toward improved livelihoods, gender equity, and social inclusion. Following the 2021 United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS), countries were encouraged to define pathways for transforming their food systems to align with the 2030 Agenda and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).2 Many countries have since developed national action plans to operationalize these pathways, requiring coordinated multisectoral efforts. SHiFT contributed to this process by generating evidence and supporting national stakeholders in developing context-specific food systems solutions. This brief introduces SHiFT’s country engagement strategy and explains how SHiFT supported collaborative pathways and processes in each target country during its initial phase. Consumers and Food Environments, Area of Work 1 in the new CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition, will build upon the SHiFT approach starting in 2025 through 2030.

Development readiness

Why do some systems move while others stall—even when resources, plans, and intent appear similar? This paper introduces the concept of development readiness as one way to understand and address this question. Development readiness is defined as the capacity of a system to act—at the right time, at the right scale, and with purpose—whether in response to crises or in pursuit of development goals. It emerges when kinetic capacity (the ability to move people, goods, and services) aligns with negotiation capacity (the ability to coordinate, decide, and resolve), conditioned by activation costs (tangible and intangible obstacles) and option value (flexibility to act under uncertainty). A conceptual framework based on these four operational forces is set out and illustrated with real-world examples. A structured research agenda and strategy emerges, along with implications for investment and operations. The case illustrations demonstrate that the development readiness framework applies equally at national, sectoral, and organizational levels, with wide-ranging applications—from scaling innovations, accelerating service delivery, and strengthening value chains, to deepening climate resilience and enabling coordinated action in crisis-prone and institutionally fragmented settings.

Forest loss in Malawi: how having women at the table affected debates and decisions about solutions – research

Around the world, climate change is being tackled, not just in parliaments and global summits, but also in villages and farming communities. In these local spaces, lives and livelihoods depend directly on natural resources, and decisions are often made in groups.

Globally, including women in action against climate change is seen as crucial. Especially in rural agricultural settings, women bear a substantial burden from the warming planet. But there has been little research on whether simply having more women involved in climate action changes the decisions taken by communities to combat global warming – or whether it matters.

Coping with crisis: Livelihood vulnerabilities and food insecurity in Sudan’s current conflict

Sudan’s conflict, reignited in April 2023, represents not just a military contest between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), but a total systemic collapse that has engulfed governance, infrastructure, markets, and public services. This conflict did not arise in a vacuum. Sudan has long faced structural vulnerabilities including weak institutions, a fragile economy, and climate-related stressors such as erratic rainfall and land degradation. The war, however, accelerated these pre-existing fault lines into a full-blown crisis.

Key urban economies such as Khartoum have been devastated by airstrikes and sieges, while transport corridors and trade routes have been severed. Local governance structures in many regions have been displaced or dissolved, leaving civilians without recourse to basic services or protection. Simultaneously, the banking sector has fractured, disrupting remittances, cash transfers, and supply chains across the country. Insecurity has driven over 12.8 million people from their homes – 8.6 million internally and 3.9 million seeking refuge neighboring countries, as of May 2025 (UNHCR, 2025).

What do we know about the future of the agrifood system in South Africa?

South Africa’s primary agriculture sector witnessed profound productivity growth in recent decades, yet structural transformation is stalling due to a combination of sluggish nonfarm growth and persistent structural challenges that inhibit wider societal progress.

Looking ahead, the agrifood system is well placed to increase the supply of goods at competitive prices but requires consistency in policymaking and an investment-friendly environment, as well as stronger domestic demand for products.

Given the complexity and interconnectedness of the country’s agrifood system, future foresight research should focus on better understanding cross-sector productivity gains and how the entire system can be reoriented to support greater agricultural transformation.

What do we know about the future of food systems in West and Central Africa?

Food systems in West and Central Africa (WCA) are challenged by slow growth in productivity and incomes and by climate change.

Urbanization and related trends are creating new opportunities for the region’s agricultural value chains to meet nutrition and employment needs, including those of women and young people.

Climate change poses a significant threat to future agricultural production in the region, and dependence on food imports is mostly projected to increase.

Foresight studies that account for the future can help guide the transformation of food, land, and water systems in WCA in response to climate change. However, new analyses are needed to address the multidimensional nature of the region’s challenges.

What do we know about the future of food systems in East and Southern Africa?

Food demand in East and southern Africa (ESA) is expected to be three to nine times higher by 2050 (relative to 2010), depending on the emerging economic and demographic trends.

To meet demand, agrifood systems (AFS) in the region must expand and diversify. Consumption demand for meats and fruits and vegetables will more than triple by 2050, creating economic opportunities but also inclusivity challenges.

Transformations in AFS must increase the sector’s resilience to supply-side shocks that threaten food security and nutrition.

Favorable policies and investments that are country-specific, inclusive, and sustainable will be powerful tools to shape and influence AFS’s transition in the region.

What do we know about the future of food systems in Central and West Asia and North Africa?

The subregions of Central and West Asia and North Africa (CWANA) will continue to import around 50 percent of domestic food requirements by 2050.

Natural resources will continue to degrade in the CWANA region until 2050 and beyond.

Agrifood systems transformation in CWANA can be facilitated by fast-tracking technology transfer approaches, leading to sustainable productivity growth.

Foresight analyses are needed to generate scenarios of agrifood system transformation in CWANA, with a focus on reducing trade and importation risks related to international market volatility.

What do we know about the future of pulses in global and regional agrifood systems?

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) account for about 55 percent of global pulse production. Nearly one-half (48 percent) of global production occurs in 16 low- and lower-middle income countries in the drylands of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

The gap between pulse demand and supply is increasing in South Asia.

Most recent foresight studies on pulses are focused on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation.

Future foresight studies on specific pulse crops should target regions where these pulses are important in human diets.

Pulse trade should be promoted between countries that encompass the drylands of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

Vegetable, fruit, and staple crop production and input use: Baseline findings from the FRESH end-to-end evaluation

In Tanzania, fruit and vegetable (F&V) production is the fastest growing agricultural subsector.1 Production is concentrated among smallholder farmers who face numerous barriers which hamper intensification. These include lack of quality inputs, insufficient financing, limited access to subsidies, limited extension services, and limited and unreliable access to markets.

The CGIAR Research Initiative on Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH), now under the CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition (BDN) Area of Work 3, is testing the effectiveness of its end-to-end approach in Northern Tanzania.2 This approach, described in more detail in Research Brief 1, combines demand, food environment, and supply interventions to increase desirability, affordability, accessibility, and availability of F&V. The supply interventions are designed to address known barriers faced by F&V farmers. For example, the provision of climate-resilient vegetable cultivars tackles the lack of quality inputs, whereas training on safe and sustainable vegetable production, including integrated pest management, tackles limited extension services.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and partners are conducting a longitudinal evaluation to assess the impact of the FRESH end-to-end approach in Tanzania on household vegetable production and F&V intake among women of reproductive age. The evaluation is being conducted among 2,611 households living in 33 villages in five districts in the Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions. In this research brief, we describe baseline findings on the production of vegetables, fruit, and staple crops and the inputs used in production among different types of farming households in the study area.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: June 2025

This report analyzes key market trends in Sudan from February to June 2025, focusing on the prices, availability, and quality of essential commodities—cereals, vegetables, animal products, agricultural inputs, fuel, and exchange rates. Consistent with previous editions, it reveals significant spatial and temporal disparities across Sudan’s 18 states.

Cereals showed mixed trends. Wheat prices stabilized in June after a mid-May spike, while sorghum and millet fluctuated modestly. Wheat flour prices continued rising. Perceived availability and quality, particularly of wheat and wheat flour, deteriorated in June, with highest prices in conflict-affected and remote areas. Vegetables—particularly tomatoes and potatoes—experienced sharp price hikes in June, largely due to seasonal pressures and logistical disruptions. Onion prices were more stable but showed regional variation.

Animal products faced upward price pressure and volatility. Prices of lamb, beef, and eggs rose steadily; chicken and fish were erratic, and milk prices fluctuated. Availability declined, especially for beef and eggs. Perceived quality improved for meat but dropped for chicken and fish. Other staples, including sugar, cooking oil, fava beans, and oilseeds, had relatively stable trends overall, but prices varied widely by state. Sugar and fava beans rose sharply, particularly in South Kordofan and Kas sala.

Agricultural inputs showed moderate price fluctuations. Improved seed varieties remained costlier than local ones, with peaks for wheat and potato seeds. Fuel prices in parallel markets spiked in April–May before easing in June. South Kordofan and Central Darfur recorded the highest prices.

Exchange rates continued to diverge between official and parallel markets, with wide regional dis parities—Khartoum, Gedaref, and North Kordofan reported the highest parallel rates.

Sudan’s war is an economic disaster: Here’s how bad it could get

Intimate partner violence and women's economic preferences

One in three women globally experiences intimate partner violence (IPV), yet little is known about how such trauma affects economic decision-making. We provide causal evidence that IPV influences women's time preferences - a key parameter in models of savings, investment, and labor supply. We combine two empirical strategies using four distinct datasets. First, in two randomized recall experiments in Ethiopia, we randomly assigned women to recall specific acts of abuse before eliciting their intertemporal choices. Women with IPV experiences prompted to recall IPV display significantly greater impatience than otherwise similar women who are not prompted. Second, we exploit exogenous reductions in IPV generated by two randomized interventions - one involving cash transfers, the other psychotherapy - and use treatment assignment as an instrument for IPV exposure. Women who experience reduced IPV as a result of treatment exhibit more patient time preferences. Together, these results provide consistent, novel causal evidence that exposure to IPV induces individuals to discount the future more heavily. This evidence suggests a psychological channel through which violence can perpetuate economic disadvantage and constrain women's ability to take actions - such as saving, investing, or exiting abusive relationships - that require planning over time.

Genetic control of seed iron and zinc concentration in Rwandan common bean population revealed by the Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS)

Common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is one of the most abundantly consumed legume crops as foods worldwide. In many African countries, this crop is an important staple food because of its rich nutrients. The Great Lakes region of Central Africa, which includes Rwanda, the nation with the highest per capita consumption of common beans worldwide, is known to be a center of common bean diversity in Africa. Increasing the amount of iron and zinc in common bean for biofortification has been a key breeding goal in Rwanda and other countries. In this study, using 192 accessions, including local landraces from Rwanda, breeding materials, released varieties, and others, we performed genome wide association studies (GWAS) to determine the loci governing those traits in addition to other agronomic traits. We identified a locus that was strongly associated with seed zinc concentration and candidate genes. The information might be a great help for marker-assisted breeding of this trait in common bean.

Country profile – Kenya: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

Agriculture is vital to Kenya's economy, accounting for 20% of the country’s GDP in 2020. Yet the growth of the sector has slowed in recent years due to unfavorable weather conditions, leading to a reduction in crop and livestock performance (Central Bank of Kenya, 2023). While employment in agriculture has been steadily declining (to 32% in 2023), the sector still employs a large share of the rural population and is the main source of informal employment, rural income, and livelihoods (D’Alessandro et al., 2015; ILO 2025).

A majority of Kenyan farmers operate on a small scale and are solely dependent on rainfall (D’Alessandro et al., 2015). However, since the 1970s, the country has experienced significant changes in rainfall pat terns--average rainfall during the long season has decreased while rainfall during other times of the year has increased and the country has experienced more frequent climate extreme events (Kogo et al. 2021). Increased climate variability has negative effects on agriculture and may exacerbate inequalities within the sector. Due to gender inequalities and gender-differentiated roles in agrifood systems, men and women do not experience climate change and variability in the same ways (Balikoowa et al., 2019; Lecoutere et al. 2023). According to the World Economic Forum, women are more vulnerable than men to climate change due to lower education and exclusion from the political and domestic decision-making processes that affect their lives (Gunawardena, 2020).

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Nigeria

Nigeria’s agri-food sector is one of the largest and most complex in sub-Saharan Africa, encompassing diverse crops, regions, actors, and markets. With agriculture contributing approximately 24% to the national GDP and employing over 70% of the rural workforce (CBN, nd), the sector plays a central role in livelihoods, food security, and inclusive growth. Within this sector, agri-food value chains constitute the connective tissue that links smallholder farmers, processors, traders, input suppliers, and consumers, both within the domestic economy and across international markets.

Nigeria's agricultural output is predominantly driven by staple food crops such as maize, rice, and cassava, while export-oriented value chains like cocoa provide significant foreign exchange and economic diversification potential. These chains vary widely in terms of modernization, capital intensity, and integration into digital financial services. Staple crop chains are typically domestic-facing and labor-intensive, offering high employment shares and deep linkages with poverty alleviation. Export-oriented chains, although narrower in farmer reach, tend to offer higher margins, foreign earnings, and exposure to quality standards and global market dynamics.

Credit access, demand, and repayment among smallholder farmers in Nigeria: A follow-up analysis

Access to credit can be important for improving the performance of smallholders, as it enables farmers to purchase inputs while sustaining their livelihoods. In rural Nigeria, however, access to credit—particularly from formal financial institutions—is limited. As a result, farmers often have little to no choice but to depend on alternative credit sources, including informal lending. Small holder agricultural households often turn to friends and family, or local money lenders and other informal and semi-formal sources to meet their credit needs (EFInA, 2020).

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, June 2025

Highlights
Retail prices of maize increased by 8 percent in June.
Prices rose in all regions of Malawi despite continued imports.
Maize retailed above the government-mandated price in 13 out of 26 monitored markets.

How good are livestock statistics in Africa?

Livestock supports the livelihoods of around one billion people in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) (Thorne and Conroy 2017, Baltenweck et al. 2020). However, growth and productivity of the livestock sector in many LMICs are not keeping pace with the increasing demand for animal-source foods. Boosting the sector’s productivity is crucial for poverty reduction in LMICs, which continue to face multifaceted challenges and shocks that threaten the sustainability of food systems. This, in turn, requires reliable livestock data for informing livestock policies and investments. However, there is a significant gap in the quality and reliability of livestock data, which inhibits evaluations of the livestock sector’s role in livelihoods and national economies and therefore impedes evidence-based livestock policies and investments.