Publications

When the cure is worse than the disease: Acaricide use, tick resistance, and systemic constraints in Uganda’s dairy sector

The Ugandan dairy sector has expanded rapidly in recent years. However, ticks and tick-borne diseases pose increasing challenges to this progress, exacerbated by the rise in resistance to acaricides, the primary method for tick control. This paper examines the systemic constraints that undermine effective, safe, and sustainable tick control in Uganda’s liberalized dairy system. Drawing on multiple complementary data sources—including household surveys, exit interviews, list experiments, and covert audit methods—we show that the de facto farmer-led model of tick control is characterized by failures in information, coordination challenges, imperfect input markets, and weak regulation. Farmers operate with limited technical knowledge and minimal advisory support, and under extensive grazing systems and frequent inter-herd contact that require coordinated approaches to tick control. Input markets provide access to acaricides, but little guidance on proper use. As a result, misuse and overuse of chemicals are widespread, generating risks for animal and human well-being, food safety, and environmental integrity. Addressing these constraints will require integrated interventions that strengthen extension and regulatory capacity, improve accountability in veterinary input markets, and foster community-level coordination to ensure safe and sustainable tick control.

Africa’s agrifood trade: The state of play

The objective of this report is to establish a state of play of African trade by giving the most accurate picture possible and propose a typology of countries in terms of their degree of openness. It is preliminary work, the first in a series of documents, to pave the way for an in-depth analysis of the role of trade and trade policies in achieving food security and improved diets in Africa. The analysis is based on the rigorous exploitation of the best available data on trade in Africa (formal and informal), the use of the best analytical tools (gravity models) as well as recent indicators for measuring regional integration. The report is organized as follows. In the next section we set the scene by presenting an overview of the complex (positive and negative) links between trade, food security and nutrition. We then analyze Africa agrifood trade, examining first international flows, then regional patterns. In the following section we formally test whether Africa is “undertrading” or not. We next establish a typology of countries according to their degree of self-sufficiency and openness. The fifth – and final- section of the report provides some conclusions and recommendations.

Synopsis: The changing demographics in Nigeria’s food systems and implications for future youth engagement

Food systems (FS) are critically important in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA), where they account for a significant share of the GDP and employment. FS transformation is both strongly influenced by and strongly influences employment and job creation. This study documents FS employment in the past two decades observed in Nigeria, focusing on changes in demographic structure and inclusiveness. Key findings of the study are:

FS in Nigeria are poised for significant transformation driven by demographic shifts, urbanization, income growth, and a favorable policy environment, while the conflict adversely affects this transformation. Agricultural employment declined significantly during the period, while the share of nonfarm agrifood sectors in total employment almost tripled, signaling major structural transformation. Employment in food manufacturing expanded rapidly, albeit from a lower base, with women’s share among the fastest growing. Women’s share in nonfarm agrifood system (AFS) employment tripled over the period, while youth participation quadrupled. However, Nigeria’s youth face persistent barriers. Youth unemployment is double the national rate and their labor force participation is considerably below the average rate. The nonfarm AFS employment share in Nigeria far exceeds the continental average, positioning Nigeria ahead in AFS transformation. Policy recommendations from the study include providing targeted youth training and financing for nonfarm AFS roles; closing gender gaps through resource access and supportive regulations; investing in marketing infrastructure; prioritizing recovery and job programs in conflict zones; and adopting a holistic FS approach that also engenders the active involvement of women and youth.

Climate–agriculture–gender inequality hotspots: Insights for Nigeria

Climate change intensifies risks in Nigeria’s agri-food systems, disproportionately affecting women due to social inequalities that increase their vulnerability and limit their adaptive capacity. Hotspot areas are concentrated in northern and north-central Nigeria, notably Bauchi, Benue, Kano, Jigawa, Kebby, Nasarawa, Niger, Sokoto, and Zamfara. Policy actions should prioritize climate-smart agriculture, gender-sensitive climate services, and social protection to improve resilience and equity.

Insecticide use, farmers’ self-reported health status, and genetically modified cowpea in Nigeria: Findings from a clustered randomized controlled trial with causal

Excessive insecticide use in smallholder agriculture can threaten human health and the environment. We evaluate the effects of receiving a genetically modified cowpea variety that confers resistance to the legume pod borer (Maruca vitrata) using a clustered randomized controlled trial with an encouragement design in Nigeria. We find that farmers who received the pod borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea with complementary inputs significantly reduce insecticide volumes and report fewer days of insecticide-related illness compared to farmers who only received a conventional cowpea variety. Farmers receiving PBR cowpea alone experience smaller, mostly insignificant reductions. To explore heterogeneous responses, we combine ANCOVA (analysis of covariance) interactions with machine learning-based Causal Forest estimates of Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs). Results reveal that smaller, less wealthy, and labor-constrained households experience the largest reductions in insecticide use and health improvements, whereas wealthier farmers or those with higher baseline spraying practices experience lower reductions. Women-managed plots exhibit modestly higher responsiveness. Our findings highlight the importance of moving beyond average effects and seed distribution toward targeted, context-specific interventions that account for behavioral and resource constraints in smallholder farming systems.

Community health worker caseloads, home visits, and child survival: Experimental evidence of heterogenous effects from Mali

I examine whether the effectiveness of community health worker (CHW) home visits in reducing under-five mortality varies with the population-to-CHW ratio in rural, fragile, and conflict-affected Mali. Muso, a global health NGO focused on reducing child and maternal mortality, recently signed a data use agreement with IFPRI to enable study of new research questions using data from its recent randomized controlled trial (RCT) of proactive home visits in Mali’s Bankass region. The original trial found that proactive home visits by professional CHWs did not lead to detectable reductions in child mortality relative to fixed-site care, although health infrastructure improvements in both treatment arms likely led to experienced large declines in under-five mortality across all study communities amid ongoing conflict.

In this project note, I study heterogeneous effects of the proactive home visit model by population-to-CHW ratios using nearly census level baseline population data and administrative records on CHW assignment. I test the hypothesis that home visits may operate differently when CHWs face particularly high or low caseloads. In theory, CHWs serving small populations may not be necessary for improving access because travel distances to fixed sites are already short, whereas CHWs serving very large populations may be unable to conduct sufficiently frequent and high-quality home visits. If both mechanisms operate, an optimal population-to-CHW ratio may exist.

Instead, I find evidence that CHW home visits are more effective when the population-to-CHW ratio is high. At 900 people per CHW (about the 90th percentile in the trial data), children in control clusters experience significantly higher mortality risk. This elevated risk, however, is offset in clusters assigned to proactive home visits. Additional checks indicate that this is driven by CHW coverage rather than underlying population size. These findings suggest that proactive home visits may be most beneficial in areas where fixed-site CHWs otherwise face heavy caseloads.

Lessons from the Digital Agricultural Advisory Services (DAAS) project in Ethiopia: Dairy use case

Agricultural extension services are a cornerstone of rural development and a vital instrument for policymakers to directly shape economic, social, and environmental outcomes in rural areas. These services aim to enhance farm productivity by promoting the adoption of agricultural technologies, inputs, and management practices. Through outreach, training, knowledge sharing, and learning, extension activities help bridge the gap between research and practice, potentially supporting more resilient and productive farming systems (Davis 2008; Jack 2013).

Perceived need and measured well-being: How well do subjective rankings capture relative poverty?

Subjective well-being rankings are increasingly used to target social protection programs, yet their ability to capture relative welfare and wealth remains debated. This study benchmarks self-, peer-, and elite-based poverty rankings against consumption- and wealth-based measures using Ethiopian household survey data, where about 20 households per village were ranked from neediest to least needy by themselves, peers, and community leaders. We assess concordance between subjective and conventional welfare rankings and explore sources of divergence. Subjective rankings align more with relative wealth than consumption and with total rather than per capita welfare, suggesting they overlook household composition. Elite-based rankings best capture conventional measures, followed by peers’ and self-rankings. Subjective rankings also better reflect relative deprivation among households exposed to covariate shocks. A composite index combining all three improves agreement with standard metrics. Information asymmetries, favoritism, and welfare dynamics partly explain discrepancies, offering insights for enhancing targeting in data-scarce settings.

Livelihoods and recovery after Cyclone Idai: Short- and long-run household evidence from Mozambique

Sub-Saharan Africa bears a disproportionate share of global poverty and is also among the regions most vulnerable to natural disasters that pose persistent threats to livelihoods, food security, and long-run development. This study examines how exposure to a major natural disaster—Cyclone Idai, one of the deadliest and costliest disasters in Mozambique’s history—affected household well-being and economic behavior in central Mozambique following its landfall in March 2019. We combine satellite-based best-track data on Cyclone Idai’s trajectory with longitudinal household survey data collected both shortly after the disaster and five to six years later. Specifically, we link predicted maximum wind speed at the community level to a pre-defined sample of households surveyed before the cyclone, allowing us to estimate impacts in the short run (within the same year) and the longer run. This design leverages rich pre-baseline data and province fixed effects to mitigate concerns about selection bias, displacement, and omitted variables that commonly complicate causal inference in disaster impact studies.

We find that greater cyclone exposure is strongly associated with short-run reports of shock experience and asset loss, validating predicted wind speed as a measure of disaster intensity. In the long run, however, households appear to recover from the immediate shock. Cyclone exposure is associated with persistent declines in reliance on agriculture as a primary livelihood and increases in small business activity and formal wage employment. At the same time, we observe mixed effects on asset ownership, with sustained declines in housing ownership alongside increases in durable asset holdings. Future work will continue to highlight how complex and heterogeneous pathways through which large-scale disasters reshape household livelihoods and economic behavior over time.

Lessons from the Digital Agricultural Advisory Services (DAAS) project in Ethiopia: Wheat use case

Agricultural extension services are a cornerstone of rural development and a vital instrument for policymakers to directly shape economic, social, and environmental outcomes in rural areas. These services aim to enhance farm productivity by promoting the adoption of agricultural technologies, inputs, and management practices. Through outreach, training, knowledge sharing, and learning, extension activities help bridge the gap between research and practice, potentially supporting more resilient and productive farming systems (Davis 2008; Jack 2013).

How local leaders view transparency and local autonomy in humanitarian aid distribution: Evidence from Mali

Recognizing the pivotal role local governance plays in crisis response and the diversity of local conditions even within a single country context, this article examines variation in preferences over humanitarian aid delivery among local leaders in Mali. Drawing on qualitative fieldwork and a survey of 2,919 local leaders across the country, we investigate leaders’ preferences over two key dimensions of aid governance: local autonomy over targeting and distribution and transparency over aid delivery. Using aid profile vignettes to elicit preferences over these attributes, we find that leaders generally favor approaches that combine both greater local control and greater transparency, viewing transparency as complementary to autonomy rather than constraining. Preferences, however, vary by leaders’ position and by context: outsiders to aid governance demand more transparency, and leaders’ relative trust in local aid committees versus donors predicts preferences for autonomy. Leaders in conflict-affected villages place greater value on autonomy and less on transparency, highlighting how insecurity reshapes aid preferences in fragile settings.

How can community grants promote gender-inclusive development in fragile settings? Insights from rural Nigeria

Community-driven development (CDD) programs aim to shift decision-making to the local level by empowering communities to prioritize, design, and implement projects that address their most pressing needs. These programs have gained global traction as vehicles for service delivery and empowerment, especially in fragile contexts with weak state capacity. These programs leverage communities’ understanding of local needs and their unique ability to deploy resources in conflict-affected, unstable, or highly remote areas that are operationally hard to reach for traditional development programs. However, evidence remains limited on how to structure CDD programs to ensure inclusive participation from a wide range of community members, particularly women, who tend to participate in community and public affairs at lower levels than men in these settings (Takeshima et al., 2024).

Bridging the information gap: How Munda Makeover is transforming agricultural learning in Zambia

This project note presents midline findings regarding the effects of Munda Makeover (MMO), a farm makeover TV show designed to disseminate agricultural knowledge to Zambian farmers in an entertaining way. IFPRI and partners designed and implemented a cluster randomized trial across 160 villages involving two main interventions: village screenings of MMO episodes, combined with weekly SMS reminders to watch the show; and agricultural roadshows or input fairs. Results from a phone survey with 976 farmers show that community screenings and SMS reminders significantly increased viewership and knowledge around innovations promoted in the TV show. However, the uptake of agricultural inputs sold during the roadshows remains limited, largely due to liquidity constraints. These findings offer critical insights for optimizing the delivery of agricultural extension content through mass media and improving farmers’ access to agricultural inputs.

Digital tool integration, biodiversity, and the potato value chain in Kenya: Results from a baseline survey

Potato farmers in Kenya grapple with various challenges along the value chain, including limited access to quality planting materials such as seeds and fertilizers, insufficient storage and postharvest handling facilities, fluctuating market prices, and unreliable market information systems. For women and youth, these challenges are further exacerbated by persistent social gaps in the agriculture sector. Digital tools can play a vital role in addressing these challenges by providing access to valuable agricultural information, weather forecasts, and best practices that help farmers make informed decisions and improve crop management. However, challenges persist in digital tool adoption within agricultural value chains in sub-Saharan Africa. This study assesses the impact of digital tool adoption and support on socioeconomic and agriculture-related outcomes in Kenya’s potato value chain. It piggybacks on an ongoing digital tool integration program, Business Development and Coaching (BDEC), conducted by the Farm to Market Alliance (FtMA), which targets agripreneurs in Farmer Service Centers (FSCs). By comparing a treatment group that receives this training with a control group continuing business as usual, the study evaluates the effects of agripreneurs’ adoption and expanded use of digital tools on farmers’ agriculture based livelihoods, income generation, and job creation metrics, with a focus on youth employment and gender disparities.

Synopsis: Quantifying food losses in the beans value chain in Rwanda – Results from a baseline survey

Reducing food loss has become important, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, due to its direct impact on food security. Food loss also reduces producer incomes, increases food prices, and wastes natural resources, resulting in unnecessary greenhouse gas emissions. Most estimates of food loss have been heavily criticized for lacking sound methodological basis. This study uses a novel methodology to measure food loss and identify where it occurs along the beans value chain in Rwanda.

Kenya: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Kenya’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors, irrigation, and seed subsidy are shown to be the most cost-effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Expansion in extension and advisory services for seeds and agronomy as well as improvements in seed systems also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

From commitment to delivery: Implementation as the frontier for CAADP 3.0

Africa enters the third phase of CAADP under the Kampala Declaration—CAADP 3.0—at a moment of profound possibility and significant stress. A young population, urban growth, technological adoption, and vibrant entrepreneurial systems are powerful drivers of agrifood innovation and transformation. Simultaneously, the continent’s agrifood systems are being shaped by intensifying climate shocks, constrained fiscal positions, fragile macroeconomic conditions, political volatility, and persistent conflict and displacement. These pressures are deepening hunger and undermining livelihoods across large regions. Importantly, Africa has accumulated considerable institutional knowledge and practical experience in policy formulation, planning, and cross-sector coordination. Governments, farmer organizations, regional bodies, and development partners understand the challenges facing the agrifood sector with far greater precision than in earlier CAADP cycles.

The Kampala Declaration reflects this maturity. It is not simply another policy statement; it is a political signal that Africa intends to convert aspirations into meaningful, sustained action. The challenge is no longer conceptual clarity. The challenge is implementation. For CAADP 3.0 to fulfill its promise, countries must strengthen their ability to deliver consistently, at scale, and under difficult and rapidly changing conditions. This brief outlines the nature of that challenge and proposes a structured way to approach it, drawing from the November 2025 IFPRI webinar on strategic priorities for CAADP implementation.

Malawi’s agrifood system: Transformation and environmental impacts

This paper is an update of Country Brief 8 in the series of Agrifood System Diagnostics coauthored by De Weerdt et al. (2023). The important addition from the previous country brief is a new section assessing agriculture’s environmental footprint, focusing on water use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by subsector and over time. Unlike the previous version, this brief does not include a forward-looking analysis—using IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model (IFPRI 2023)—of the contribution of productivity growth in agricultural value chains on agrifood transformation, employment, and socioeconomic outcomes. For a recent and extensive value chain ranking analysis that incorporates RIAPA modeling results, readers are referred to Pienaar et al. (2023).

Malawi experienced slow growth in the post COVID-19 pandemic period. In addition to the economic impacts of the pandemic itself, the country suffered from high levels of public debt and a sustained balance of payments crisis. Global events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and adverse weather events such as Cyclone Freddy and the El Niño in 2023–2024 further prevented the Malawi economy from returning to pre-pandemic growth levels. Economic growth rates have dropped from an average of 4.1 percent in 2011–2019 to 2.2 percent since 2020 (World Bank 2025), with an average growth rate of 3.8 percent per year during 2009–2022.

Energy and macronutrient intake among women of reproductive age: Baseline findings from the FRESH End-to-End Evaluation

In Tanzania, unhealthy diets are a major contributor to non-communicable diseases such as obesity, hypertension, and diabetes. Tanzanian diets are generally cereal-based and low in fruit and vegetables (F&V) and animal sourced foods. With rising incomes, consumption of energy-dense processed and ultra-processed foods has increased, reaching 694 kg/year per adult in 2019. Among women of reproductive age (WRA), daily energy intake is also increasing. Although nationally representative data are lacking, individual studies indicate an increase over time from 1,347 kcal/day in 2014 to 1,631 kcal/day in 2015/16 and 2,174 kcal/day in 2022.

The CGIAR Research Initiative on Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH), now under the CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition (BDN), uses an end-to-end approach, described in more detail in Research Brief 1, that combines demand, food environment, and supply interventions to increase desirability, affordability, accessibility, and availability of F&V.

In Tanzania, an ongoing impact evaluation is testing the effectiveness of this end-to-end approach in improving F&V intake and vegetable production across 33 villages in the Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions. In this research brief, we describe baseline findings on the energy and macronutrient intake among WRA in the study area.

Bridging Nigeria’s fertilizer supply-demand gap for agricultural transformation

Nigeria’s fertilizer sector exhibits a persistent disconnect between national supply and farm-level use. Despite rapid growth in domestic production and increased private-sector participation, fertilizer adoption among smallholder farmers remains among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper examines the key drivers of Nigeria’s fertilizer supply–demand imbalance and its implications for agricultural transformation. Using national statistics, market data, and policy reviews, it identifies persistent barriers – including high distribution costs, inconsistent government policies, weak extension systems, limited credit access, and poor product quality – that constrain effective fertilizer use. It also assesses how export-oriented incentives and underdeveloped domestic markets influence local availability and pricing. The findings show that expanding production alone is insufficient to achieve meaningful agricultural change. Coordinated market reforms, stronger regulatory enforcement, improved delivery mechanisms, and targeted support to smallholder farmers are needed to improve affordability, access, and agronomic efficiency. The paper concludes with policy recommendations aimed at better aligning the fertilizer sector with Nigeria’s long-term goals for productivity growth and food system resilience.

Digital agricultural technology in Egypt: Insights from app developers

Digital technologies have rapidly reshaped agricultural systems worldwide, and Egypt is no exception. Over the past decade, the proliferation of smartphones, mobile internet, and low-cost digital tools has opened new channels through which farmers, traders, processors, and aggregators access information and services. Smartphone applications, websites, call centers, and SMS-based platforms now offer advice on crop management, weather and climate alerts, input and output price information, traceability tools, and digital marketplaces. For smallholder farmers—who make up the backbone of Egypt`s agricultural sector—these tools have the potential to reduce information frictions, improve decision-making, and increase productivity and profitability. For larger firms engaged in aggregation, processing, or export, digital platforms can streamline supply chains, enhance coordination, and improve quality assurance.

Gendered work norms in Egypt: Evidence on preferences and social perceptions

We examine the nature and scope of gendered work norms in Egypt using new experimental evidence from a household survey. Societal norms around work, care responsibilities and the types of jobs women and men can hold can have a profound effect on gender differences in employment, earnings and life satisfaction. Indeed, while lack of childcare and secure transportation remain widely cited constraints to women’s employment in low-income settings, descriptive and experimental evidence also suggest that deeply rooted social norms about gender roles play a prominent role in driving the persistence of such barriers and in how households evaluate women’s work. Norms emphasizing men as primary breadwinners and women as primary caregivers shape both economic decisions and perceptions of behavior in ways that may limit women’s labor force participation even when opportunities exist.

We implement three survey-based experiments among economically disadvantaged households to elucidate these norms and measure their salience. A wage‐comparison choice experiment shows that households strongly prefer that men—not women—take on additional paid work, even when this preference entails substantial forgone income for the household. When offered identical wages for equal hours of work, only 12.4 percent of respondents select the wife to take it as a first part-time job versus the husband taking it as a second part-time job. Even when her wage is double that of her husband, a clear majority still prefer that the husband works instead. These results indicate a large implicit cost that households place on women working outside the household.

Two randomized vignette experiments further demonstrate that identical actions are interpreted differently depending on whether they are performed by men or women. Men who take on a second job to support their financially struggling household are widely viewed as more competent and more moral, whereas perceptions of women making the same choice are far more divided. Perceptions of workplace effort are broadly similar across genders, with small differences appearing only in perceptions of morality. Together, these findings emphasize the strength of gendered work norms in Egypt and reveal nuance in how they shape behavior. The findings also underscore the relevance of gender norms for designing programs affecting household work decisions and testing new approaches to promote women’s economic inclusion.

The impact of genetically modified cowpea on yields, postharvest losses, and profitability in Nigeria: Findings from a cluster randomized controlled trial

We assess the impacts of a genetically modified pod borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea variety in Nigeria through a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted in two major cowpea-cultivating states. Our design allows us to examine the impacts of PBR cowpea with and without a package of complementary inputs (fertilizer and insecticides) and in comparison to farmers who received only a conventional improved cowpea variety. Results indicate that farmers who received and planted PBR cowpea experienced significant increases in yield (21 percent) and net margins (49 percent) compared to those growing the conventional variety, with larger gains observed among those provided with the inputs package. Analysis of heterogeneous effects indicates substantial variation in outcomes based on baseline characteristics such as household size, landholding, pest control practices, and wealth. Estimation of group average treatment effects and classification analysis using a causal machine learning approach identify plot size, pesticide use, and assets as key drivers of impact heterogeneity. Findings highlight the need for targeted dissemination strategies to realize the sizable benefits of PBR cowpea for small-scale, resource-constrained farmers.

Micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises and their role in sustainable healthy diets in Ethiopia

Ethiopia is working to transform its food system through a set of game changers that strive to change Ethiopia’s agricultural production patterns and to help improve consumption of under-consumed foods. The goal is to improve diet quality for Ethiopian consumers and households, which can only take place if consumers are more aware of what types of food to eat and if production of certain types of food can expand.

In collaboration with national partners, CGIAR collected and analyzed data collected in Ethiopia on consumers and businesses selling food to consumers within the same food environments. The goal of this exercise was to learn about what dietary gaps exist, the type of businesses selling those foods, and factors constraining MSMEs from selling more healthy foods. There were three aspects to the data collection that are pertinent to this note, all collected in Kolfe Keranyo and Butajira: a consumer survey, which included information about households, adolescents, and their caregivers (typically mothers); a food environment survey, which collected some basic information about all businesses that sold food, including the foods they sold; and a survey covering micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) that work in the food environment. The latter survey included detailed information about MSMEs to understand their role in providing food to consumers. In this brief, we describe highlights from that analysis, with an eye towards ways the analysis can inform actions taken to implement specific game changers that catalyze food systems transformation from a consumer perspective.

Mozambique: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Mozambique’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. In Mozambique, investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors and traders are identified as the most cost-effective means of enhancing social outcomes, such as poverty reduction and addressing undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in accelerating agrifood GDP and employment. Moreover, extension services for livestock and agronomy, rural road infrastructure, and post-harvest losses reduction are also highly ranked. However, many of these cost-effective investments come with relatively high environmental footprints, which highlight potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and marginally so in the presence of extreme production shocks.

The development potential of anchor enterprise models in Malawi

Smallholder-centered agricultural development strategies have had limited success in Malawi over the past several decades. Policy makers are now increasingly looking for alternative ways to accelerate agricultural and rural development. One emerging approach involves larger farms or agri-business firms partnering with smallholder farming households, in what we will refer to as an anchor enterprise model. Support for such partnerships is growing, but there is still little clarity on what they involve, what they aim to achieve and the conditions they need for success. Summarizing findings from a detailed report (Benson, Cockx, and De Weerdt, forthcoming). This policy note seeks to address these questions and provide guidance for future action. We structure our discussion around five questions: what the model is, when it can make sense, for whom it can work, how it can be implemented, and whether it can contribute to inclusive rural development.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, November 2025

Retail prices of maize decreased in nearly all monitored markets by 6 percent on average in November. Sustained imports at steady exchange rates helped stabilize prices at a time when they would normally rise as peak lean season approaches. Imports dominated maize trade at all border points except Mchinji, which recorded exports to Zambia.

The landscape of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa: Are youth driving structural transformation?

This paper assesses the landscape and evolution of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa, focusing on three important countries—Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria—which together account for 40 percent of Africa’s youth population. We also examine whether Africa’s youth are driving structural transformation. To do so, we combine nationally representative data and surveys spanning more than two decades (from the 1990s to the 2020s). We situate the analysis within the region’s pressing youth unemployment challenge, where annual labor-force entrants surpass job creation. Our findings show that, despite substantial heterogeneities across countries, largely due to sectoral composition of economies, youth remain engaged in agriculture almost as much as adults. While labor continues to gradually shift out of agriculture, it has moved overwhelmingly into services rather than industry, reinforcing the unique pattern of structural transformation in Africa. More importantly, exit rates from agriculture are similar for youth and adults, except in Ethiopia, where youth are leaving agriculture at slightly higher rates than adults. In Ethiopia and Kenya, the entry rate into services is higher among young women, while entry into industry is higher among young men, suggesting distributional and equity implications of Africa’s ongoing structural transformation. These findings offer important insights and challenge simplistic views that youth are leaving agriculture in “droves” as well as the sometimes-embroidered perceptions of their role in that transformation. We discuss the implications of these findings for sustaining inclusive employment opportunities and argue that agriculture should remain central to job creation efforts in Africa.

Does small-scale irrigation affect women’s time allocation? Insights from Ethiopia

Small-scale irrigation (SSI) interventions have received increasing attention as a potential pathway for women’s empowerment in sub-Saharan Africa. One key aspect of women’s empowerment that SSI can influence is women’s time burden. Hypothesized benefits of SSI for women are less energy exertion and reduced labor in agriculture. Yet, these hypotheses have not been tested empirically. We explore how household adoption of different SSI technologies affects the time allocation of women in the household, using two rounds of intrahousehold panel survey data from Ethiopia. Two different approaches are used to address potential endogeneity issues related to time-constant and time-varying factors that may be correlated with both SSI and time use: an instrumental variables-correlated random effects approach and a fractional multinomial logit-correlated random effects with control function approach. The results suggest that household use of SSI in general is associated with an increase in women’s leisure time. The results further suggest that household use of motor pumps is associated with an increase in women’s leisure time and reductions in the time they spend on farming and personal care. Given that women often provide the labor for irrigation using manual, labor-intensive methods, such as watering cans, buckets, or hand- or foot-powered treadle pumps, the results suggest that SSI using motorized methods has the potential to free up women’s time in farming and enable more leisure time. These findings have broad implications for women’s empowerment and labor allocation. Future research using new and more comprehensive data could explore the mechanisms for the findings in this study and determine if SSI enables women to improve their ability to allocate their time to activities they prefer.

The characteristics of community seed schemes for grains and legumes: Insights from northern Nigeria

CONTEXT
Despite the significant roles that intermediary seed systems play in the supply of quality seed in developing countries, including Africa South of the Sahara, the knowledge gap remains generally substantial regarding the general characteristics and seed quality assurance performance of intermediary seed systems like community seed schemes (CSS), which still predominantly operate outside the formal seed systems.

OBJECTIVE
We aim to narrow the knowledge gap on seed production practices implemented by CSS and their economic characteristics, the extent of seed quality assurance achieved, and potential challenges CSS is facing.

METHODS
Using primary survey data of seed producers of key grains (maize, rice, and sorghum) and legumes (cowpea and soybean) from 380 CSS in Kano state in northern Nigeria, we qualitatively assess seed production characteristics, financial structures of their seed production, aspects of quality assurance measures they engage, and potential roles of external support like training on their implementation of these quality assurance measures.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
We discovered that many of the interviewed CSS have emerged endogenously, taking up seed production to address the challenges in access to quality seed in their locality. Their seed production has often grown into viable businesses that have provided potentially significant additions to their incomes. Oftentimes, these CSS implemented some seed quality assurance measures, including making closer visual checks of seed, checking germination rates, and bagging/packing seed, among others. However, fuller seed quality assurance may be significantly skill-intensive, and most CSS still do not implement many of the recommended measures under some of the intermediary quality assurance standards like quality declared seed. Our qualitative assessment suggests that future support for CSS can focus on technical support to raise the ability to engage in broader categories of quality assurance activities in financially viable ways and to improve the awareness and knowledge of different varieties and access to early generation seed.

SIGNIFICANCE
The quality assurance provided by existing community seed schemes in Nigeria may be relatively limited, particularly in terms of proper maintenance of seed production field and the quality of original varieties that they intend to multiply. Providing external support through training and technical assistance may be an effective way to transform community seed schemes into critical providers of seed quality assurance in intermediary seed systems and fill gaps in the formal seed system.

Buyer-side gender discrimination in bargaining: Evidence from seed sales in Uganda

Haggling over prices is a common feature of economic transactions in many societies. This study examines whether the gender of the seller influences buyers’ negotiation strategies and outcomes in bilateral price bargaining. Using a bargaining experiment in eastern Uganda, we analyze interactions between smallholder maize farmers and either a male or female seed seller. Our findings reveal that buyers negotiating with female sellers are less likely to accept the initial offer price and respond with lower counter-bids compared to those bargaining with male sellers. Negotiations also last, on average, one round longer when the seller is a woman, and final transaction prices are nearly 9 percent lower. These results are particularly relevant for rural economies, where restrictive gender norms limit women’s financial autonomy. Given that small agribusinesses often provide one of the few viable income-generating opportunities for women, gender biases in market interactions can have substantial implications for economic empowerment and household welfare.

From data to decision: How the National Information Platform for Nutrition (NiPN) bridges the research-policy gap in Ethiopia’s nutrition sector

Bridging the gap between research and policy continues to be a major challenge in Ethiopia, particularly in the nutrition sector, where evidence is often fragmented, inconsistently collected, and underutilized. Traditional research-to-policy approaches are frequently misaligned with policymaking needs due to differences in timelines, priorities, and communication practices. While these challenges are not unique to Ethiopia—and indeed, numerous global efforts have attempted to address them with varying degrees of success—examples from other settings offer useful insights for strengthening the interface between evidence and action. In the Ethiopian context, the National Information Platform for Nutrition (NiPN) represents an important shift toward a more responsive, demand-driven model that seeks to improve the relevance and uptake of evidence. Unlike conventional approaches that begin with research questions and proceed directly to data collection, Ethiopia’s NiPN starts with policy question formulation, aligning evidence generation with real-time decision-making priorities. This approach emphasizes embedding research in institutional processes and tailoring outputs to policy needs. The paper explores how NiPN addresses structural barriers to nutrition governance—such as limited institutional capacity, fragmented coordination, and weak knowledge translation. It engages multiple sectors in mapping evidence, analyzing data, and supporting dialogue to inform actionable recommendations. Using examples like the Seqota Declaration and the School Feeding Programme, the paper demonstrates how NiPN has improved policy relevance, intervention targeting, and national ownership. The Ethiopian case offers transferable insights for other countries seeking to institutionalize evidence-informed policymaking in complex, multisectoral domains.

Synopsis: Unlocking agricultural efficiency: A stochastic frontier analysis of smallholder farmers in Rwanda

This study assesses the technical efficiency of smallholder farmers in Rwanda, with a focus on maximizing crop output value and identifying the socioeconomic drivers that shape technical efficiency.

Harvesting change: The impact of climate change on Africa’s agriFood systems

Africa is one of the most exposed continents to climate change. While global temperature has risen by 0.2°C per decade since 1991, in Africa the rate is faster, reaching 0.3°C (WMO 2022). Yet Africa contributes only modestly to climate change. Indeed, the continent emits 7 times less greenhouse gas compared to Europe and 15 times compared to North America (IPCC, 2023). In addition to rising temperatures, climate change affects Africa through several channels, including an increase in ocean levels, variations in precipitations (droughts and heavy rains), plant pests and animal diseases. Climate change is also expected to contribute to a significant reduction in arable land in the continent (IPCC, 2023). The new CAADP strategy and action plan for 2026-2035 recognizes that Africa is the hardest hit by climate change and that the phenomenon is one of the major threats to Africa’s agricultural systems and food security in the coming years.

All of these changes will affect agricultural production, a major challenge for Africa, as African economies and livelihoods remain heavily dependent on agriculture. Agriculture still represents 16% of Africa GDP with contributions ranging from 3% in Southern Africa to 25% in the eastern part of the continent. Due to the low level of labor productivity in agriculture, the sector’s contributions to total employment are higher than those of other sectors. By inducing structural changes in agricultural production, climate change will also affect trade flows by shifting comparative advantages between and within continents. Prices will also be affected. This Policy Brief i shows how Africa’s agricultural production and trade patterns are altered by climate change. It highlights the large impacts of climate change on agricultural production, reinforcing results from other work. It shows that the impacts on prices compound the production impacts on African economies and people given many countries in the region are net importers. However, the work also shows that there are substantial differences across the region in the size of the impacts.

Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor 2025

The 2025 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) investigates critical topics related to Africa’s trade in agricultural products. As in previous editions of the report, we developed a database that corrects discrepancies in official trade flow values, as reported by importing and exporting countries; this database serves as the basis for analyzing Africa’s international, domestic, and regional trade. Following the 2024 report’s examination of the nexus between climate change and the environment, this year’s report focuses on food security and its linkage with global and intra-African trade.

Rice milling and parboiling trade-offs for economic and nutritional gains with special attention to sub-Saharan Africa: A comprehensive review

Rice is an important source of calories and nutrients for people in low- and middle-income countries. In the quest to respond to consumer preferences and attract premium prices, paddy processors increase the degree of milling (polishing), largely affecting nutritional composition and economic value of milled rice. Milling and parboiling are crucial unit processing operations affecting the quality profile of rice. The literature poorly reports on milling and parboiling operations that provide economic and nutritional gains or losses. Thus, there are no standard milling and parboiling regimes recommended to influence technological and policy changes in favor of public health and nutrition. In this comprehensive review, rice milling and parboiling operations associated with nutritional, economic, food safety and environmental benefits have been presented and discussed. Optimal milling and parboiling strategies that provide nutritional, economic, food safety and environmental gains are proposed as alternatives to conventional processing technologies and practices. Improved parboiling and moderate degree of milling in two-stage systems appear to provide better economic and nutritional benefits.

Whole maize flour could enhance food and nutrition security in Malawi

Maize is the staple cereal in Malawi, with a daily per capita consumption of 383 g (dry matter basis), primarily consumed in the form of nsima, a thick porridge. We combined a milling experiment with focus group discussions (FGDs) to provide insights into mass and nutrient losses during maize grain dehulling and maize flour consumption patterns in rural Malawi. Milling batches (30 kg) of four maize grain varieties were dehulled at three abrasive disk dehullers under controlled conditions. The impact of maize variety and dehuller design on mass and nutrient losses during dehulling was statistically significant (p < 0.05), with a mean mass loss of 28.1 ± 5.7%, and nutrient losses of 9.8 ± 1.9% for protein, 61.7 ± 2.0% for zinc, and 47.7 ± 3.6% for iron. Six FGDs conducted in rural areas of Lilongwe District revealed a preference for refined flour due to convenience and cultural norms, despite the nutritional benefits of whole grain flour, which was recognized for its ability to provide satiety, particularly during periods of maize scarcity. Participants also highlighted switching between flour types based on seasonal maize availability, social stigma associated with whole grain flour, and awareness of nutrient losses during dehulling. Given Malawi’s precarious food insecurity situation, transitioning from dehulled maize flour nsima to whole maize flour or less refined nsima, is imperative. Our study findings can have food and nutritional savings for other southern Africa countries where the dehulling is a common practice.

Public expenditure on agriculture, youth out-migration, and engagement in agriculture? Evidence from Nigeria

Theoretical models posit that migration decisions are driven by differences in economic opportunities across locations, including across rural and urban areas, which implies that increased rural investment can curb rural-urban migration and encourage engagement in agriculture. However, direct empirical evidence of this remains scant, especially on youth migration in Africa. We fill this knowledge gap by examining the effect of temporal changes in public expenditures for the agriculture sector (PEA) on rural youth’s migration and engagement in rural economies in Nigeria. We combine unique subnational data that capture PEA’s spatiotemporal variations and individual level youth data and estimate two-way fixed effects models. We find that a 1 percentage point increase (equivalent to a 25 percent increase) in the share of PEA, is associated with up to 0.9 percentage points reduction in youth’s out-migration. Conversely, an increase in PEA leads to increased youth engagement in farm activities. Our results suggest that public investments in rural economies can mitigate youth out-migration from rural areas. These results have important implications for informing youth and migration policies, especially in the context of Africa, often characterized by its youth bulge and the exodus of youth from rural areas because of perceived lack of economic opportunities.

Bridging the gap: How human-centered design can help unlock bottlenecks in the diffusion of small-scale irrigation in Nigeria

Ample evidence shows that small-scale irrigation (SSI) has positive impacts on agricultural productivity, poverty reduction, climate resilience and household food security, nutrition. Despite this, adoption of SSI has remained low in sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria, where previous research suggests potential for adoption is largest. Factors such as high cost of technologies, farmers’ risk behavior, lack of incentives, and lack of access to finance and capacity gaps have often been noted as key constraints limiting the adoption/scaling of SSI among smallholders. However, in an environment with low overall levels of use, it is important to not only focus on the challenges experienced by smallholder farmers, but also on those of key intermediary actors—specifically government, irrigation equipment distributors, and finance institutions—that are critical for a supportive enabling environment of SSI technology diffusion. To understand the constraints these groups encounter and propose innovative policy, financial, and supply chain solutions, we conducted a series of human-centered design (HCD) workshops in three locations in Nigeria. Key solutions proposed during nine workshops include the need for cross-sector coordination and policy harmonization, improved data and digital systems and platforms, customized financial products and risk-sharing options for SSI, capacity-sharing for extension services, and specific strategies to support women farmers so that they benefit equally.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: October 2025

Sudan’s markets in October 2025 showed relative stability with several commodities experiencing improved availability and quality. Wheat and wheat flour prices declined, while sorghum, millet, vegetables, lentils, meat, oilseeds, and sugar showed mixed but generally stable trends. Fuel prices fell early in the month before stabilizing, and fertilizer prices remained steady with better availability.

Regional disparities persisted, with Darfur, Kordofan, and parts of Blue Nile continuing to record the highest prices for many goods due to conflict, transport disruptions, and liquidity constraints. Supply chain problems increased compared with September, driven by security concerns, high transport costs, exchange rate pressures, and limited cash access. Most merchants reported no major challenges related to storage, power, or hiring workers, although market safety concerns rose slightly, especially in North Darfur.

Tax compliance increased at the federal level but remained highest at state and locality levels. Despite ongoing challenges, merchants continued to show resilience: over half plan to maintain current trade levels, nearly one-third expect to expand, and only small shares intend to reduce trade, change commodities, or relocate, although uncertainty increased modestly.

The effects of a secondary school scholarship on youth outcomes: Evidence from a randomized trial

Although primary school enrollment has steadily increased in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years, enrollment in secondary school remains generally low in comparison with other regions (Evans and Mendez Acosta 2021). In Ethiopia, enrollment in lower secondary school roughly doubled over the past decade to reach an estimated 46 percent in 2021–2022, but substantial heterogeneity exists across rural and urban areas and across poorer and richer households (Tiruneh and Molla 2024). In rural areas, long distances from home to school often pose a substantial barrier to secondary school enrollment, especially for poor households. In addition to the real or perceived risks of insecurity linked to attendance – encountering insecure conditions along the route, or risks for youth who reside away from home to attend – these lengthy distances imply substantial out-of-pocket costs for transportation or accommodation, and households may struggle to manage these costs (Leight et al. 2022). Limited post-primary educational attainment can have substantial adverse effects for youth, limiting their opportunities for future employment and income generation and increasing the likelihood of early marriage for girls (Giacobino et al. 2024).

This project note reports the main findings from a randomized trial conducted in rural Ethiopia, which assessed the effects of a scholarship for lower secondary school students (ninth and tenth grade) targeting extremely poor youth. We find that the provision of a scholarship led to a 12-percentage-point increase in the probability of secondary school enrollment two years later compared to youth who did not receive a scholarship, an effect that was greatest among students who received early notification about the scholarship (one year before eligibility). There was no change in attendance or academic performance, suggesting that students in the treatment arm performed as well as those in the control arm. Some evidence also indicated a small decline in the likelihood of child marriage and an enhancement in youth well-being. Overall, the findings suggest that the scholarship may be a valuable intervention to increase secondary school attainment, particularly if announced earlier; however, a third of youth who passed the primary school exam and were offered a scholarship still did not enroll. This suggests there are other important barriers to secondary school progression in this sample.

Implications of increased urbanization and consumer awareness on future food supplies in Tanzania

Tanzania’s food system faces increasing pressure from rapid urbanization, population growth, and shifting consumer preferences toward more nutritious and diverse diets. This study analyzes how these macro trends will affect national food supply needs by 2050 and identifies key policy entry points to ensure an efficient, sustainable, and equitable food system transformation.

Using census data (2012–2022) and the National Panel Survey (2020/21), combined with two international healthy diet benchmarks – the EAT-Lancet Reference Diet (ELRD) and the Hypothetical Micronutrient Adequate Diet (HMAD) – the report projects the required food supply volumes to provide all Tanzanians with healthy diets by 2050.

Tanzania’s population is projected to more than double, from 59.8 million in 2020/21 to 138.1 million by 2050, with the share of urban residents rising from 34.5% to 55.4%. This demographic shift implies that a relatively smaller rural workforce will need to feed a much larger and more urban population, requiring higher productivity and stronger rural-urban linkages.

Current diets in Tanzania are heavily dominated by cereals and sugar products and contain too few fruits, dairy products, and eggs (according to both healthy diet references) combined with insufficient amounts of vegetables (according to ELRD) as well as meat and fish products (according to HMAD). To assure a heathy diet for all by 2050, the supplies and consumption of food from these food groups must expand substantially. This not only requires that total annual food supplies increase from 24 million tons to 52 million tons (under ELRD) or 62 million tons (under HMAD), but certainly also that its composition change dramatically: vegetables by roughly 3 times of current supply; oils by 4 times; fruits by 5 times; dairy by 8 times; eggs by 10 times (under ELRD) and 37 times (under HMAD), and meat and fish by 4 and 8 times (under HMAD), respectively. In contrast, cereal and sugar production can remain stable or even decrease slightly without compromising nutritional adequacy.

Meeting these targets requires significant productivity gains. For key commodities such as milk, oranges, sunflower oil, tomatoes, and beans, yield improvements of 2-10 times current levels are needed, though still within feasible global productivity frontiers. Addressing post-harvest losses (PHL) and expanding processing, cold storage, and urban agriculture are possibly also critical avenues to reduce waste and improve food availability. From an environmental viewpoint, the study urges the adoption of sustainable intensification practices and climate-smart livestock management, with emphasis on reducing emissions per unit of output, diversifying protein sources toward fish and poultry, and improving logistics and market inclusion for smallholders.

In policy terms, the report highlights alignment between its findings and Tanzania’s Agriculture Master Plan (2024), noting that 12 of the 20 government-prioritized commodities (e.g., banana, avocado, tomatoes, sunflower, beans, and dairy) are also essential for future healthy diets. However, important food items such as eggs, onions, leafy vegetables, mangoes, and oranges remain underemphasized and deserve greater policy focus. The agenda on PHL, though formally acknowledged, is also inadequately mainstreamed into Tanzania’s broader agricultural policy framework.

In conclusion, achieving healthy diets for all Tanzanians by 2050 will require, in addition to raising nutrition awareness and improving economic affordability among the population:
• A more than doubling of total food supplies with major shifts toward nutrient-rich foods,
• Substantial agricultural productivity and efficiency gains,
• A stronger emphasis on reducing PHL and strengthening urban food systems, and
• A coordinated policy focus on nutrition-sensitive and environmentally sustainable production.

Impact of conflict on key agro-industries in Khartoum State, Sudan: Wheat flour milling, oil processing, and packaging

This study evaluates the effects of the ongoing armed conflict in Sudan on the agro-industrial sector in Khartoum state, with a focus on the wheat flour milling, edible oil, and packaging materials industries. The conflict, which started in April 2023, has led to widespread population displacement, destruction of infrastructure, and severe economic disruptions, especially in Khartoum, Sudan’s most industrialized and densely populated state.

The assessment is based on a combination of primary data, including satellite imagery, site visits, technical questionnaires, and key informant interviews, and secondary sources, such as official reports. Data were collected from 15 industrial facilities located in the Khartoum North, Garri, and Soba industrial zones. These include four facilities in the wheat flour milling sector, ten in the edible oil sector, and one in the packaging materials sector.

Due to security constraints and widespread infrastructure destruction, access to the industrial zones and the factories was restricted. Moreover, price volatility, inflation, and shortages of skilled labor and materials further complicated the assessment, making it difficult to accurately value the observed and reported damages and losses in these industries.

Our estimate of the total estimated damages and losses across the three sectors is USD 407 million. Financial losses represent 51 percent of these losses, while about 23 percent of the losses were related to losses of inventory and 11 percent to losses of logistical and maintenance assets of the agro-businesses. The wheat flour milling sector incurred the highest overall losses. Notably, financial losses dominate across the three sectors, primarily driven by the conflict halting factory operations and disrupting supply chains.

Recovery for these industries will be prolonged. In the wheat flour milling sector, the average repair timeline anticipated for bringing production buildings back into full use is 6.8 months, while for electrical systems, it is 5.7 months. Estimated repair periods for the edible oil sector are 6.0 months for oilseed handling and preparation machinery and 5.9 months for electrical systems. Expected repair periods for electrical components in the packaging materials are similarly 6.0 months, reflecting relatively similar challenges in restoring operational capacity across the three industrial sectors.

Stakeholder interviews underscored the urgent need for enhanced security, improved access to financing, tax relief, and market protection. Government responses—guided by the 2024 Sudan Industrial Development Conference—have focused on deploying security forces, improving institutional coordination, and providing limited financial support to the country’s factories. However, significant implementation gaps remain, particularly in access to financing for and enforcement of regulatory measures within the industrial sector.

A phased, sector-specific industrial recovery strategy is recommended that prioritizes financial recovery, inventory replenishment, and restoration of infrastructure critical to industrial production. Also needed is stronger coordination between public and private sector actors, improved access to concessional financing, and a better alignment of industrial policy with agricultural supply chains to foster long-term resilience in the agro-industrial sector.

Conflict and agricultural inputs: Impacts on maize yields in Nigeria

While standard agronomic recommendations advocate for increased application of inorganic fertilizer to boost maize yields across sub-Saharan Africa, there is limited understanding of how violent conflict influences smallholder farmers’ fertilizer demand, yield responses, and the overall profitability of fertilizer use. This study addresses this gap by analyzing how exposure to conflict affects input use decisions and the economic returns to fertilizer among maize farmers in Nigeria. Using detailed household-level data and spatially referenced conflict events, we estimate maize yield response functions with respect to nitrogen application and assess the profitability of fertilizer under varying levels of conflict exposure. Our findings reveal three key results. First, the marginal physical product (MPP) of nitrogen is low across the study sample, indicating limited agronomic responsiveness. Second, conflict exposure significantly reduces the likelihood and intensity of fertilizer use, suggesting that insecurity constrains both input access and willingness to invest. Third, conflict lowers the MPP of nitrogen even further, thereby reducing the marginal value-cost ratio (MVCR) and undermining the profitability of fertilizer use. These results highlight the importance of considering conflict as a key external factor that distorts input-output relationships in agricultural production. Insecurity not only affects access to inputs through higher prices and disrupted supply chains, but also alters expected returns, making fertilizer investments less attractive for risk-averse farmers. Recognizing the effects of conflict on fertilizer use and yield response is essential for designing more effective input subsidy programs, targeting strategies, and resilience-building interventions in fragile agricultural systems.

Multistakeholder platforms in transboundary waters: What do we know, and where should we go?

This policy brief synthesizes recent evidence on multistakeholder platforms (MSPs) in shared river basins and presents practical guidance for river basin organizations, development partners, and policymakers. It compares established basin-level MSP approaches across three basins (Nile, Zambezi, and Mekong) and describes how stakeholders in the Incomati and Maputo River Basins—shared across the Republic of South Africa, Eswatini, and Mozambique—built on these approaches to design their own MSP. This brief translates comparative evidence and field experience into a practical toolkit for advancing MSPs in shared basins.

Statistics from Space: Next-Generation Agriculture Production Information for Enhanced Monitoring of Food Security in Mozambique – Groundtruthing data collection and stakeholder engagement report

The Statistics from Space project (SFS) seeks to support the Government of Mozambique to produce and disseminate accurate crop production statistical data leveraging satellite remote-sensing data and artificial intelligence augmented analytics. The project, funded by the Government of the Republic of Korea (Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs; MAFRA), aims to provide the Mozambican Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development with production estimates of major crops across three provinces namely Gaza, Manica and Zambezia in a sufficiently timely manner so that all market participants can use the information for decision-making.

SFS is a three years project and has four main components: (1) Stakeholders engagement for impacts, led by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); (2) Enhanced area sampling frame led by ITC/University of Twente; (3) Digital collection of groundtruthing data, led by Centre of Excellence in Agri-Food Systems and Nutrition (CE-AFSN) at Eduardo Mondlane University; and (4)Analytical framework, led by Seoul National University (SNU).

This Report is part of component 3 of the SFS project and has an overall objective to depict all activities carried out during the data collection process in the several districts of Gaza, Manica and Zambezia provinces which are the target regions of the project. The report also includes the methodology approach used since the interaction and involvement of local stakeholders. At the last sections, the report includes the main findings from the data collection process, challenges and constraints, lessons learnt and the next steps.

Statistics from Space: Next-Generation Agriculture Production Information for Enhanced Monitoring of Food Security in Mozambique – Enumerators training report

The Statistics from Space project (SFS) seeks to support the Government of Mozambique to produce and disseminate accurate crop production statistical data leveraging satellite remote-sensing data and artificial intelligence augmented analytics. The project, funded by the Government of the Republic of Korea (Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs; MAFRA), aims to provide the Mozambican Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development with production estimates of major crops across three provinces namely Gaza, Manica and Nampula in a sufficiently timely manner so that all market participants can use the information for decision-making. SFS is a three years project and has four main components: (1) Stakeholders engagement for impacts, led by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); (2) Enhanced area sampling frame led by ITC/University of Twente; (3) Digital collection of groundtruthing data, led by Centre of Excellence in Agri-Food Systems and Nutrition (CE-AFSN) at Eduardo Mondlane University; and (4) Analytical framework, led by Seoul National University (SNU). This Report is part of component 3 of the SFS project and has an overall objective to depict the activities carried out during the enumerators training that took place in Maputo, Manica and Zambezia provinces as the prior phase for the field data collection process in Gaza, Manica and Zambezia provinces.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, October 2025

On average, retail prices of maize stabilized in October at a level below their pre-election peak. National-level price stability concealed market-level variations in maize prices. Imports continued dominating cross-border trade in maize.

Application of an analytical framework to hindcast crop yield in major crop production regions in Mozambique

Mozambique faces challenges in staple food crop production, which makes crop yield prediction vital for effective policy-making on food security. The analytic framework that integrates satellite data and crop growth simulations to forecast regional crop yield can aid policy makers. The objectives of this study were to apply the analytic framework to three major crop production regions in Mozambique including Gaza, Manica, and Nampula provinces for maize, soybean, and rice. The gridded crop growth simulations were performed using Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). A set of crop management scenarios were applied to the crop growth simulations. One of these simulations were identified to obtain crop yield hindcasts by cell comparing leaf area index data derived from the simulations and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. Crop yield hindcasts were obtained using a percentile of crop yield distribution using three preceding growing seasons. It was found that the percentile used for crop yield hindcasts differed by crop and province. The accuracy of maize and soybean yield hindcasts was within an acceptable range, e.g., < 20% of crop yield in growing seasons, whereas that of rice yield hindcasts was considerably high. Crop yield predictions were limited by the use of crop management scenarios such as cultivars and fertilizer application. Despite biases and limitations in representing real farming conditions, the framework provided insights into improving staple food crop production. It was also highlighted that detailed knowledge on crop management practices such as cultivar and fertilizer applications would improve the reliability of the analytic framework to predict crop yield in the major production regions in Mozambique.

Vulnerability of Nigerian maize traders to a confluence of climate, violence, disease and cost shocks

Purpose
We study five exogenous shocks: climate, violence, price hikes, spoilage and the COVID-19 lockdown. We analyze the association between these shocks and trader characteristics, reflecting trader vulnerability.

Design/methodology/approach
Using primary survey data on 1,100 Nigerian maize traders for 2021 (controlling for shocks in 2017), we use probit models to estimate the probabilities of experiencing climate, violence, disease and cost shocks associated with trader characteristics (gender, size and region) and to estimate the probability of vulnerability (experiencing severe impacts).

Findings
Traders are prone to experiencing more than one shock, which increases the intensity of the shocks. Price shocks are often accompanied by violence, climate and COVID-19 shocks. The poorer northern region is disproportionately affected by shocks. Northern traders experience more price shocks while Southern traders are more affected by violence shocks given their dependence on long supply chains from the north for their maize. Female traders are more likely to experience violent events than men who tend to be more exposed to climate shocks.

Research limitations/implications
The data only permit analysis of the general degree of impact of a shock rather than quantifying lost income.

Originality/value
This paper is the first to analyze the incidence of multiple shocks on grain traders and the unequal distribution of negative impacts. It is the first such in Africa based on a large sample of grain traders from a primary survey.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Kenya: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2023 Kenya Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI’s Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI’s website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Ultra-poor Graduation Midline Survey in Somalia, 2023

This dataset comes from the midline survey of a randomized impact evaluation of the Ultra-Poor Graduation (UPG) Model implemented by World Vision Somalia in internally displaced persons (IDP) camps in Baidoa, Somalia. The UPG program supports extremely vulnerable households through a combination of cash transfers, savings groups, productive asset or skills training, and life-skills coaching.

The midline survey, conducted from July 22 to August 7, 2023, followed up with households to assess progress toward improved food security, household consumption, and asset accumulation, along with secondary outcomes on financial inclusion, income generation, consumption patterns, social cohesion, and locus of control.

Eligible households were identified using a vulnerability assessment based on the Household Hunger Scale and length of residence in the IDP site. Of 6,323 eligible households, 5,000 were enrolled, and 4,116 households (2,872 treatment and 1,244 control) were included in the evaluation. The evaluation survey tracks approximately 4,000 households over three years (2022â 2024) to assess how effectively the UPG model reduces poverty and strengthens resilience in an urban humanitarian context.

Ultra-poor Graduation Endline Survey in Somalia, 2024

This dataset comes from the endline survey of a randomized impact evaluation of the Ultra-Poor Graduation (UPG) Model implemented by World Vision Somalia in internally displaced persons (IDP) camps in Baidoa, Somalia. The UPG program supports extremely vulnerable households through a combination of cash transfers, savings groups, productive asset or skills training, and life-skills coaching. The endline survey, conducted from September 27 to October 20, 2024, collected follow-up data to assess final program outcomes on food security, household consumption, and asset accumulation, as well as financial inclusion, income generation, social cohesion, and locus of control.

Eligible households were identified through a vulnerability assessment based on the Household Hunger Scale (HHS) and length of residence in the IDP site. Of 6,323 eligible households, 5,000 were enrolled, with 4,116 households (2,872 treatment and 1,244 control) included in the evaluation sample. The survey tracks households over three years (2022–2024) to assess the UPG model’s effectiveness in reducing poverty and strengthening household resilience in an urban humanitarian context.

Food systems in conflict-prone and climate-affected areas of Northern Nigeria: Humanitarian and development challenges

Protracted conflict and climate shocks have profoundly disrupted food systems in northern Nigeria, yet little empirical evidence exists on how these shocks shape the functioning of the region’s food system (production, transportation, value addition, and trade). This study addresses this evidence gap by combining GIS-based mapping, cost structure analysis, and investment opportunities in food production, transportation, processing, and trade in key staple commodities across conflict-prone and climate-affected areas of northern Nigeria and connected market hubs. The analysis quantifies cost structures for key food supply chain actors, identifies systemic food system inefficiencies driven by conflict and climate factors, and examines how these factors undermine both commercial and humanitarian food flows. By integrating commodity-specific diagnostics with stakeholder perspectives, the study offers an evidence-based rationale for prioritizing interventions in conflict contexts. Two investment cases—on-farm storage and localized wheat milling—illustrate how targeted actions can reduce losses, enhance resilience, and create co-benefits for humanitarian operations and market recovery. By combining food-flow maps and cost structures for multiple actors along the food supply chain in a high-risk environment, and by demonstrating simplified approaches to linking empirical diagnostics with practical investment strategies, the study’s findings contribute to the literature on the functioning of food systems in conflict-prone and climate-affected contexts. In addition, the findings provide evidence to support policy changes, interventions, and investment decisions aimed at transforming food systems and addressing structural failures, while enhancing the efficacy of short-term humanitarian interventions. They also address the underlying causes of chronic food insecurity and support economic recovery in the region.

Mapping the design and implementation of seed sector regulation: The case of Rwanda

Rwanda’s seed sector is changing, with clear signs of a move towards greater responsiveness to market actors and forces and new investments in the production and distribution of improved varieties and quality seed to farmers. This study examines how the country’s legal and regulatory systems support—or constrain—the development and delivery of improved varieties and quality seed in light of these changes. Using a Regulatory Systems Mapping (RSM) approach, the study assesses four core areas of Rwanda’s seed sector: variety registration and release, early generation seed (EGS) production and distribution, seed quality assurance, and seed trade. The analysis integrates stakeholder perspectives from across the public and private sectors, highlighting critical implementation bottlenecks, institutional coordination gaps, and areas where laws diverge from practice. Findings show that while Rwanda has made significant strides in advancing a market-oriented vision for its seed sector and aligning with regional frameworks such as the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), systemic issues persist, including limited clarity on appeals processes, underdeveloped quality control infrastructure, and insufficient support for private sector breeding and farmer-based enterprises. The study offers targeted, time-bound recommendations for improving regulatory effectiveness, promoting inclusive participation (especially by women and farmer groups), and operationalizing flexibilities that suit Rwanda’s seed sector. By focusing on both regulatory design and implementation realities, this work aims to support ongoing policy reform and investment efforts in Rwanda’s seed sector.

Economywide assessment of CSA interventions in building resilient agri-food systems in Rwanda

Due to its structural features, the Rwanda’s agri-food system is extremely vulnerable to the risks of climate variability. To accelerate and sustain growth in the food system, increase its resilience to shocks, and improve food security, the Rwandan government incorporated a list of climate-smart agricultural interventions into its updated Fifth Strategic Plan for Agricultural Transformation (PSTA-5) program, with ambitious, explicit targets. This paper assesses the impacts of these CSA interventions on Rwanda’s agri-food system, both with and without climate change, using historical declines in yield within agriculture as a proxy. Results show that modeled CSA practices during the PSTA-5 period (2024/25-2028/29) increase agricultural and overall GDP growth by 4.2 and 1.3 percentage points by the end of the plan period, respectively, with a long-term growth impact that stretches well beyond the plan period mainly owing to the persistent effects of irrigation and terracing. Cumulative agricultural GDP (2024/25-2028/29) would be 2.7 percent higher than the baseline outcome of no such CSA investments. We also find stronger household level effects, mainly in rural areas. Furthermore, a recurrent 1-in-5-year magnitude of climatic shock in Rwanda can cause substantial reductions in agricultural (-7.6 percent) and overall (-2.7 percent) GDP during the PSTA-5 period. The CSA interventions are impactful in minimizing the effects of climate change on the Rwandan economy.

The changing demographics in Nigeria’s food systems and implications for future youth engagement

Food systems (FS) are critically important for youth employment in sub-Saharan Africa. FS must grow rapidly to guarantee food and nutrition security for growing populations, provide the quantity and quality of food demanded by increased urbanization and income, and to complement technological changes in other sectors. Expansion of nonfarm components of FS also reinforces efforts to transition out of agriculture. The impact of these factors, their inevitability and amenability to policy interventions, and the extent of FS transformation needed differ across countries. Future FS also face several emerging challenges. Employment and job creation are among the areas significantly affected by FS transformation. Demographic changes that accompany expanding FS employment are also critical for gender equity and youth inclusion. The extent, speed, and complementarity of the FS transformation and increased employment also vary across countries. However, few systems are currently in place to monitor the extent of FS transformation or its interactions with other aspects of the economy.

This study explores the evolution of employment in Nigeria’s FS over the past two decades, focusing on youth and gender inclusion amid broader demographic, economic, and policy shifts. As Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria is experiencing all the factors that typically shape FS and labor markets. With the working-age population growing by nearly 90 percent between 2000 and 2023 and youth unemployment remaining high, the agrifood system (AFS) presents both a challenge and an opportunity for inclusive economic transformation.

The paper begins by situating FS as critical to Nigeria’s economy, highlighting their contributions to GDP and employment. Using national living standards survey data, it examines structural changes in employment, particularly the shift away from on-farm agricultural work toward nonfarm segments such as food processing, trade, and services. Between 2003 and 2022, agriculture’s share in total employment fell from 58 percent to 35 percent, while nonfarm AFS employment grew from 12 percent to 33 percent. Women and youth have been central to this shift, with women’s participation in nonfarm AFS increasing by 190 percent and youth participation growing by over 300 percent—growth was especially faster in trade and food manufacturing.

The analysis links these labor trends to key drivers such as economic growth, policy reforms, urbanization, and conflict. While Nigeria’s economy nearly tripled between 2000 and 2023 and poverty declined, economic gains have been uneven and fragile, particularly in the northern regions affected by insecurity. Government efforts—including the Agricultural Promotion Policy (2016-2020), National Agricultural Technology and Innovation Policy (2022-2027), and the creation of the Presidential Food Systems Coordinating Unit (2023)—signal a growing shift toward an FS approach in policy thinking. However, gaps in institutional coordination, inadequate investment in enabling infrastructure, and limited inclusion of vulnerable groups constrain the impact of these reforms.

The study concludes that Nigeria’s AFS holds potential for inclusive growth and employment generation. However, realizing this potential requires sustaining the policy focus from narrow agricultural productivity to a broader FS strategy that centers on employment quality, gender equity, youth entrepreneurship, and institutional alignment. Without such a transformation, Nigeria risks even more youth unemployment and discontent, thus missing the demographic dividend. But with targeted investments in skills, infrastructure, and policy coherence, the AFS can serve as a powerful lever for sustainable development and economic opportunity.

Impact of conflict shocks on land rental market dynamics: Panel evidence from Nigeria

Access to land is crucial for transforming agri-food systems, promoting market integration, and reducing poverty in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where rural land markets are increasingly expanding. However, the escalation of violent conflicts presents serious obstacles to the effective functioning of these land rental markets and their contribution to development objectives. The study employs a household-level panel fixed effects regression model to analyze the impact of violent conflicts and institutional factors on land rental market dynamics, using georeferenced LSMS-ISA and ACLED data. Findings show that conflicts significantly reduce land rental sizes, especially for rural smallholder farmers. Additionally, the study found that institutional factors change how conflict affects land rental markets. The heterogeneous effects revealed that institutional factors reverse the impact of conflict on land rental sizes and values. Specifically, when smallholder women participate in agricultural decision-making in rural areas or when large-scale farming households have access to credit, the typically adverse effect of conflict on land markets transforms into a positive one. Thus, women’s participation in agricultural decision-making and access to formal credit play a crucial role in shaping households’ ability to navigate land rental markets in conflict-affected areas. Policymakers can leverage this evidence to develop strategies that improve land access and stability in conflict-prone regions. By understanding household and market dynamics, policymakers can design more effective strategies to promote conflict-sensitive and sustainable agricultural systems and economic stability in Nigeria and other conflict-prone regions.

Food price stabilization: Theory and lessons from experience

Armed conflict, community-based cash transfers, and social cohesion: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Ethiopia

Amid a surge in armed conflicts in Africa, the impact of armed conflicts on social cohesion and potential avenues to rebuild social cohesion in conflict-affected settings remain active areas of inquiry. Most importantly, identifying instruments and interventions that can effectively strengthen social cohesion in conflict-affected settings can inform and facilitate peace-building efforts. We examine whether community-based cash transfer and social protection programs can strengthen social cohesion in settings grappling with the adverse effects of armed conflict. We answer this question using the 2020 civil war in Ethiopia and combining this with a randomized community-based cash transfer program rolled out after the conflict. Exploiting temporal variation in the spread of large-scale armed conflicts (battles) across a two-wave panel survey, we show that battles are associated with a deterioration in social cohesion. Reassuringly, we demonstrate that a modestly sized community-based cash transfer can rebuild and restore social cohesion in communities grappling with armed conflict and deterioration in social cohesion. Heterogeneity analysis shows that households who belong to a minority ethnic group in each community reported a higher loss in social capital associated with their exposure to armed conflict and that the community-based cash transfer appears to be more effective in rebuilding social cohesion among these households.

Aggregation models in agricultural value chains of staple crops and their potential application for biofortification: A scoping review

Neonatal mortality risk of vulnerable newborns by fine stratum of gestational age and birthweight for 230 679 live births in nine low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2017

To describe the mortality risks by fine strata of gestational age and birthweight among 230 679 live births in nine low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017.Descriptive multi‐country secondary data analysis.Nine LMICs in sub‐Saharan Africa, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Latin America.Liveborn infants from 15 population‐based cohorts.Subnational, population‐based studies with high‐quality birth outcome data were invited to join the Vulnerable Newborn Measurement Collaboration. All studies included birthweight, gestational age measured by ultrasound or last menstrual period, infant sex and neonatal survival. We defined adequate birthweight as 2500–3999 g (reference category), macrosomia as ≥4000 g, moderate low as 1500–2499 g and very low birthweight as <1500 g. We analysed fine strata classifications of preterm, term and post‐term: ≥42+0, 39+0–41+6 (reference category), 37+0–38+6, 34+0–36+6,34+0–36+6,32+0–33+6, 30+0–31+6, 28+0–29+6 and less than 28 weeks.Median and interquartile ranges by study for neonatal mortality rates (NMR) and relative risks (RR). We also performed meta‐analysis for the relative mortality risks with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by the fine categories, stratified by regional study setting (sub‐Saharan Africa and Southern Asia) and study‐level NMR (≤25 versus >25 neonatal deaths per 1000 live births).We found a dose–response relationship between lower gestational ages and birthweights with increasing neonatal mortality risks. The highest NMR and RR were among preterm babies born at <28 weeks (median NMR 359.2 per 1000 live births; RR 18.0, 95% CI 8.6–37.6) and very low birthweight (462.8 per 1000 live births; RR 43.4, 95% CI 29.5–63.9). We found no statistically significant neonatal mortality risk for macrosomia (RR 1.1, 95% CI 0.6–3.0) but a statistically significant risk for all preterm babies, post‐term babies (RR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1–1.5) and babies born at 370–386 weeks (RR 1.2, 95% CI 1.0–1.4). There were no statistically significant differences by region or underlying neonatal mortality.In addition to tracking vulnerable newborn types, monitoring finer categories of birthweight and gestational age will allow for better understanding of the predictors, interventions and health outcomes for vulnerable newborns. It is imperative that all newborns from live births and stillbirths have an accurate recorded weight and gestational age to track maternal and neonatal health and optimise prevention and care of vulnerable newborns.

Impact of production-and consumption-oriented interventions on crop varietal adoption: Cluster-randomized controlled trial evidence from northern Nigeria

This paper evaluates the impact of three interventions (seed trial packs, consumption-oriented interventions, and agricultural training, either individually or bundled) in improving varietal turnover in northern Nigeria via a 3-year cluster-randomized controlled trial. A secondary objective of the paper is to evaluate the performance of these varieties in farmers’ fields. Results show that seed trial packs increased adoption of promoted varieties by 42%–44% of farmers and 42%–47% of maize and cowpea land area. Farmers rated production, processing, marketing, and consumption characteristics of these varieties very highly. Yields on plots with promoted varieties were significantly higher than those of farmers’ traditional varieties, ranging from 16% to 25% more for maize and 70% for cowpea in the first season, with observed yields persisting in the second season.

JEL Classification: Q12, Q16, Q22

Aflatoxin contamination of maize flour in Kenya: Results from multi-city, multi-round surveillance

Foodborne illness is a major source of the global burden of disease, but public monitoring of hazards in food systems is overwhelmingly focused on the formal sector in high income countries. We contribute to the development of an evidence base on food safety risk in low-income and informal settings by monitoring aflatoxin prevalence in maize flour in Kenya. Aflatoxin is a contaminant which causes liver cancer and has been linked to childhood stunting. We carry out systematic monitoring of formally and informally processed maize flour from a range of retail vendors across ten urban sites in Kenya and analyze aflatoxin levels in commercial samples. Samples were obtained every two months from February-December 2021 and 1255 samples in total were analyzed. Almost all samples (97%) showed detectable levels of aflatoxin, with 16% of tested samples exceeding the national regulatory limit of 10 ppb. Mean contamination levels are significantly higher (p < 0.001) in informal market samples (9.9 ppb) than in packaged flour in the formal sector (4.9 ppb). We find important seasonal variation in aflatoxin levels, which are highest in our June sample and lowest in December, which we attribute to variation in sourcing of maize grain. Our results demonstrate the need for policy interventions to reduce aflatoxin exposure in Kenya and demonstrate the utility of coordinated monitoring efforts to track levels of food safety risk in low-income settings.