PUBLICATIONS

Unpacking power dynamics and women's economic empowerment in polygynous households in Burkina Faso

Objective
We aim to describe power distributions in polygynous households and consider how these matter for the production and allocation of food-generating resources in western Burkina Faso, where there is a high prevalence of polygyny.

Background
Recent studies on polygyny focus on its likely negative consequences and mechanisms for explaining these outcomes using data from large multitopic surveys. These approaches fail to consider the underlying dynamics in polygynous households.

Method
As part of a 5-year mixed-methods evaluation of a nutrition- and gender-sensitive poultry value chain intervention in western Burkina Faso, we conducted a thematic analysis of 24 gender-disaggregated focus group discussions (265 individuals) and 24 semi-structured interviews in six communities. They focused on gender and power dynamics, food production, and food allocation with a specific focus on polygyny.

Results
Relationships among co-wives are often cooperative, though not necessarily warm, and typically hierarchical. Monogamous and polygynous marriage may support women's empowerment in different domains. Polygynous co-wives may be able to divide care work, but first wives often control how labor is divided. In monogamous marriages, wives often make decisions jointly with their husbands, while in polygynous marriages, most co-wives are left out of decisions. In polygynous households, women are better able to maintain control over their earnings.

Conclusion
We discuss these findings in terms of their implications for studying polygynous households in quantitative surveys and in terms of how to better design and target interventions for this population.

Regional developments: Middle East and North Africa [in 2025 GFPR]

Over the past 50 years, food and agricultural policy in the Middle East and North Africa has alternated between the dual aims of prioritizing efficiency and economic growth, and ensuring national security through food self-sufficiency and broad-based provision of staple commodities. This chapter summarizes the historical trends in policies and outcomes as the region moved from heavy state interference to a period of liberalization, first examining agricultural production and related policies and then consumers and food and nutrition policy, before concluding with emerging policy issues and research priorities.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Regional developments: Africa [in 2025 GFPR]

Africa’s food systems have undergone significant transformations over the past four decades, with notable improvements in agricultural productivity and food security, but persistent challenges remain. This chapter examines how Africa’s agrifood policy landscape has evolved over time in response to complex challenges, including food insecurity, climate change, and socioeconomic disparities. It explores how IFPRI and other international organizations have offered research-based solutions to Africa’s development challenges, as well as underscoring the necessity of systemic, inclusive, and evidence-based approaches to address the agrifood system challenges projected for 2050.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Short-term and long-term effects of cash for work: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial in Tunisia

JEL Classification: O12, O15

Country profile – Nigeria: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

This country brief supports GCAN's goal of integrating gender, climate resilience, and nutrition considerations into policy by providing policymakers, program officers, and researchers with an analysis of Nige ria’s current situation and policy objectives in these areas. A recent study from Andam et al. (2023) underscores the vital role of Nigeria’s agrifood system in the country's economy. In 2019, Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stood at $469.3 billion, supported by a workforce of 66.8 million people (Andam et al. 2023). The agrifood sector made a substantial contribution, generating $175.3 billion in GDP and providing employment for 41.9 million individuals. This sector encompasses both primary agriculture and off-farm activities, including processing, trade, transport, food services, and input supply. Primary agriculture alone contributed $103.3 billion to GDP and employed 32.2 million people. Off-farm agrifood activities contributed approximately 40 percent of the agrifood GDP and 20 percent of agrifood employment (Andam et al. 2023).

How misinformation and mismatched expectations reduce adoption of improved seeds

Often presented as game-changing solutions, agricultural technologies like improved seeds or fertilisers can lead farmers to adopt one at the expense of others, only to disadopt when the expected gains, based on overly optimistic assumptions about reduced need for complementary inputs, fail to materialise.

Informing CAADP 2026–2035: What a decade of IFPRI Research in Africa tells us

This policy brief distills insights from a decade of IFPRI’s research and engagement across 54 African countries, offering a strategic synthesis to inform the Kampala 2026–2035 implementation phase of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). Drawing from almost 5,700 publications between 2015 and 2025, and using a combination of natural language processing (NLP), deep learning algorithms and rule-based approaches, the review maps key findings against CAADP’s six strategic objectives: (1) intensifying sustainable food production, agro-industrialization, and trade; (2) boosting investment and financing for agrifood systems transformation; (3) ensuring food and nutrition security; (4) advancing inclusivity and equitable livelihoods; (5) building resilient agrifood systems; and (6) strengthening agrifood systems governance. By aligning evidence with strategic priorities, this synthesis aims to sharpen the research and policy agenda needed to accelerate agricultural transformation, ensure food security, and deepen resilience across the continent. The review reveals areas of significant progress—such as advances innovative finance, nutrition policy, social protection design, gender equity, and market functioning—while also exposing enduring gaps in data, investment diagnostics, and imple mentation capacity. The brief is thus both a stocktaking and a springboard, harnessing what is known to guide the next phase of CAADP.

Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan

This study investigates the determinants of access to safe water and reliable energy for households in Sudan using nationally representative data from a recent labor market survey. The results show that urbanization, education, and wealth significantly enhance the access households have to these essential services, while rural areas and less developed regions, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, face substantial challenges. Access to reliable energy correlates with better food security and health outcomes within households, and improved access to safe water significantly enhances the health of household members. Policy recommendations supported by these research results include targeted rural infrastructure investments, educational improvements, and regional interventions to address disparities in household access to safe water and reliable energy across Sudan.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: April 2025

This report presents an overview of trends in prices, availability, and quality of key commodities in Sudan during February, March, and April 2025. It covers cereals, vegetables, animal products, and essential goods such as cooking oil, sugar, agricultural inputs (fertilizers and seeds), fuels, and exchange rates. The analysis reveals notable spatial and temporal disparities in prices, availability, and quality across Sudan’s 18 states.
Cereal prices showed mixed patterns: wheat prices rose from February to March before declining in April, while sorghum and millet prices fluctuated. Wheat flour prices remained relatively stable. Spatial disparities were particularly evident for wheat and wheat flour. Traders consistently reported stable availability and quality for most cereals. Vegetable prices varied significantly. Tomato prices remained stable, potato prices were consistently higher than other vegetables, and onion prices declined steadily before rising slightly at the end of April. Spatial and temporal differences in prices were also prominent.
Meat prices continued to increase steadily, while fish prices fluctuated in line with availability. Egg prices rose gradually, while milk prices, after some initial fluctuations, declined steadily in March and April. Among agricultural inputs, wheat seed prices remained stable, whereas local sorghum seed prices rose consistently. Fertilizer prices fluctuated: urea prices experienced a modest increase fol lowed by a decline, while DAP prices rose sharply in April. Fuel prices demonstrated both temporal and spatial variability. Prices were notably higher in the parallel market, while diesel and petrol prices in the regular market were more stable, though regional differences persisted. Finally, the exchange rate analysis showed a continued premium in the parallel market, underscoring persistent foreign currency supply constraints.

How aid cuts could make vulnerable communities even less resilient to climate change

As global temperatures rise and climate-related disasters become more frequent, the need to adapt is rapidly increasing. That need for adaptation – from adjusting farming practices to diversifying livelihoods and strengthening infrastructure – is most acute in vulnerable low- and middle-income countries such as Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Haiti and Vietnam.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: March 2025

Sudan’s market systems continue to face severe disruptions due to ongoing conflict, political instability, and economic disruptions. These challenges have led to volatile prices, limited availability of essential commodities, and rising food and fuel costs, especially in conflict-affected areas. Insecurity, infrastructure damage, and transport disruptions further exacerbate price disparities, making key goods increasingly unaffordable for vulnerable populations.
To monitor these dynamics, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is implementing a nationwide market monitoring initiative covering 36 markets, two in each of Sudan’s 18 states. The initiative tracks prices, availability, and quality of essential commodities, monitors exchange rate movements, and gathers qualitative insights from market actors. Each month, data is collected in two rounds: the first during the first two weeks, and the second during the last two weeks. In each round, five merchants per market are interviewed using structured questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. This fortnightly approach enables timely and consistent tracking of market trends.

Synopsis: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development in Rwanda

The study systematically ranks investment options in the agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness across multiple development outcomes.
Investments in SME processors and traders and livestock extension are the most cost-effective for promoting agrifood GDP growth and employment.
SMEs and livestock services together with seed systems and credit access contribute positively to social outcomes (poverty, undernourishment, and diet).
The analysis finds a trade-off between economic gains and environmental outcomes— higher GDP effects often come with greater environmental costs.
The Rwandan case demonstrates a slight shift in the relative cost-effectiveness of investments when accounting for historical climatic risks.
The study emphasizes the need for data-driven investment planning, climate-aware policies, and balancing short-term gains with long-term sustainability objectives.

The political economy of large-scale food fortification in West Africa: Pathways toward harmonization

For two decades, there have been ongoing efforts at harmonizing large-scale food fortification (LSFF) policies and procedures in West Africa. Despite some notable successes, micronutrient deficiencies in the region remain elevated. To identify which bottlenecks exist towards greater harmonization on LSFF, this study adopted a political economy perspective to consider areas of contention over interests, ideas, and institutions between domestic stakeholders, across countries, and within regional bodies. The study finds that West African governments have made impressive strides with harmonizing their LSFF standards and committing to the importance of fortification as one of several instruments for improving micronutrient deficiencies. Likewise, the donor and technical community have worked closely with the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), as well as specialized institutions of ECOWAS, such as the West African Health Organization (WAHO), to advance the LSFF agenda, support the private sector and national fortification alliances, and identify new food vehicles for fortification. At the same time, incoherent trade, tax, and macroeconomic policies in a context of multiple shocks and crises, protectionist impulses aimed at building up domestic agro-industries, lack of financial commitment to LSFF structures in the absence of donor support, and uneven financial contributions to ECOWAS and WAHO remain barriers to progress. Learning from these lessons and considering how to address LSFF from a holistic perspective that accounts for West Africa’s unique demographic, economic, and political characteristics will not only benefit extant harmonization efforts in ECOWAS but also help with broader continental alignment on fortification under the African Union’s 2025-2036 food and nutrition security strategy.

Unlocking agricultural efficiency: A stochastic frontier analysis of smallholder farmers in Rwanda

Agriculture is central to Rwanda's economy, supporting the livelihood of about 70% of the population and contributing significantly to GDP. Smallholder farmers face many production challenges such as limited use of modern inputs, low productivity, and vulnerability to climate change. Despite efforts like the Crop Intensification Program and the Smart Nkunganire System, which aim to en hance access to resources, agricultural productivity remains suboptimal for Rwanda smallholder farmers. This study seeks to identify specific sources of technical inefficiencies among smallholder farmers, focusing on the total value of farmer’s crop output. By using stochastic frontier analysis, a robust quantitative method for separating inefficiencies and random shocks, the study assessed
the overall technical efficiency of smallholder farmers in Rwanda and identified the key factors influencing crop output value. The analysis reveals that fertilizer use, pesticide application, labor, seed use, and land size are key drivers of crop output value. This research further indicates that farmers operate at only 45% of their potential productivity, given the same level of input and technology, highlighting substantial room for efficiency improvements to reach the optimal output value frontier. Furthermore, additional analysis emphasizes the critical role of socioeconomic factors in shaping technical efficiency. The findings highlight the need for targeted interventions to optimize resource utilization, streamline labor allocation and strengthen access to extension services and government initiatives aimed at boosting agricultural production value. These strategies can substantially improve technical efficiency, enabling farmers to achieve optimal crop output values and advancing Rwanda's agricultural development objectives.

Rwanda: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present research findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Rwanda’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple devel opment outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at expanding agrifood GDP and employment, while extension and advisory services on livestock and climate emerge as the most efficient farmer-facing investments. However, crop ex tension services rank least in cost-effectiveness for economic and social outcomes. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options
overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Ethiopia: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Ethiopia’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) traders and processors are shown to be the most cost effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Extension services for livestock, credit for farmers, R&D (agronomy), and safety nets also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Understanding the policy landscape for climate action in Kenya: Potential for integration of gender, nutrition, and improved impact monitoring

As in other low- and middle-income countries, more intense climate hazards and a warmer climate negatively impact agricultural production and livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Kenya, as well as household diets, national food security and gender equality. Improving climate policy and investments to address these negative impacts requires suitable policy and investment structures that are, moreover, adequately networked among each other and with equity and nutrition efforts for effective climate action. This paper explores the institutional arrangements of the climate change policy landscape in Kenya by mapping governmental and non-governmental actors involved in climate action and how connected and influential they are. Data for this paper was collected through two participatory workshops, one at the national level and one at the county level, using the Net-Map approach. This approach provides novel insights into the highly complex climate policy landscape in Kenya. Although several climate policies and actions are in place in the country, workshop participants called for better coordination across climate change actors and stronger implementation capacity. The recent structural changes in the donor landscape might be an entry point for better alignment and coordination among different actor groups, and specifically among different government actor groups. A lack of operational monitoring and evaluation systems was also considered an important impediment to assess to what extent women and other vulnerable groups are benefitting from climate action in the country.

Uganda: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Uganda’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their impact on environmental footprints, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at expanding agrifood GDP and employment, while livestock extension services rank highest among the farmer-facing investments. Most R&D related interventions rank lowest in terms of cost-effectiveness at achieving economic and social outcomes. However, many cost-effec tive investments have relatively high environmental footprints, highlighting tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and when ex treme production shocks occur.

Inclusive and gender-transformative seed systems: Concepts and applications

CONTEXT
Seed is vital to the nutrition and livelihoods of millions of women and men small-scale farmers in low- and middle-income countries. Seed systems interventions can significantly enhance food security and nutrition by accelerating the adoption of improved varieties and the use of quality seed, which in turn increase the rate of genetic gain, productivity, and household welfare. These interventions can be particularly effective when advancing gender equality by supporting women's empowerment and addressing discriminatory gender norms. However, there is relatively little evidence on the ways in which seed systems can be an entry point for advancing gender equality by transforming discriminatory gender norms.
OBJECTIVES
We develop and illustrate a gender transformative approach applied to seed sector development. Our first objective is to provide a framework to better understand how seed systems interventions can contribute to gender equality by (1) integrating gender-accommodative and gender-transformative approaches; and (2) assessing their gendered impacts. Our second objective is to apply this framework to a particular innovation – gender messaging via information and communications technologies (ICTs) – and explore how seed system interventions can be made more gender-transformative.
METHODS
We first reviewed the existing literature to develop a framework that defines gender-transformative and accommodative seed system interventions and their impacts. We then synthesized lessons learned from the application of this framework to case studies from Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda that used ICTs that contained gendered components.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSION
We discuss how a gender-accommodative approach aims for gender considerations to improve seed systems, while a gender-transformative approach flips the goal around by aiming at progress toward gender equality through seed systems. We find growing evidence on the potential of gender-transformative seed systems interventions to influence positively the empowerment of women and also men, and to create more conducive gender norms, as shown by three case studies on ICT enablers. These case studies also show that accommodative and transformative approaches are often complementary.
SIGNIFICANCE
We introduce research questions that research and development practitioners can ask to develop accommodative or transformative approaches in seed system interventions, and show the potential of both approaches to progress toward gender equality. The case studies indicate the feasibility of gender-transformative, ICT-enabled seed system interventions, with clear indications of the potential for low-cost adaptation at scale. However, the transformative potential of these interventions requires careful consideration of messaging content, format, and context, as well as strategic public investment and strong political will.

Maize yield responsiveness and profitability of fertilizer: New survey evidence from six African countries

Enhancing maize productivity growth is pivotal for revolutionizing the agrifood system in Africa, with inorganic fertilizer serving as a fundamental input for catalyzing this progress. However, concerns are mounting about the low and decreasing yield response and profitability of inorganic fertilizer use, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study aims to refine yield response and profitability models by incorporating recent data from nationally representative and panel datasets spanning six countries. Most countries exhibited low nitrogen yield responsiveness (4–7 kg), while Ghana and Uganda showed higher responsiveness (15–20 kg) per additional 1 kg of nitrogen. Analysis of fertilizer-to-maize price ratios from 2010 to 2023 showed a downward trend, with spikes in 2022 in Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. Overall, except for those years, the data suggest a trend of increasingly favorable price incentives for fertilizer use. Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda experienced declines in the fertilizer-to-maize price ratio. Increasing inorganic fertilizer use would be profitable in Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Uganda at current market prices, but not in Malawi or Tanzania. Subsidies in Malawi and Tanzania have boosted profitability, but these may not be necessary in Ghana, Nigeria, or Uganda, which already have favorable price incentives; Malawi could benefit by substantially reducing its 80 percent subsidy while maintaining decent price incentives and farm profits. The paper proposes policy options based on factors influencing yield responsiveness and potential improvements drawn from new modeling and synthesis of the literature.

Fertilizer demand and profitability amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia

We assess fertilizer demand and profitability in Ethiopia in the face of the recent global fuel–food–fertilizer price crisis and other domestic shocks. We first examine farmers’ response to changes in both fertilizer and food prices by estimating price elasticity of demand. We then evaluate the profitability of fertilizer by computing average value–cost ratios (AVCRs) associated with fertilizer application before and after these crises. We use detailed longitudinal household survey data collected in three rounds, covering both pre-crisis (2016 and 2019) and post-crisis (2023) production periods, focusing on three main staple crops in Ethiopia (maize, teff, and wheat). Our analysis shows that fertilizer adoption, and yield levels were increasing until the recent crises, but these trends have been halted by these crises. We also find slightly larger fertilizer price elasticity of demand estimates than previous estimates, ranging between −0.40 and −1.12, which vary across crops. We find that farmers are more responsive to fertilizer prices than to output prices. Farmers’ response to increases in staple prices was statistically insignificant and hence not as strong as theoretically perceived. Households with smaller farm sizes are relatively more responsive to changes in fertilizer prices. Finally, we show important dynamics in the profitability of chemical fertilizer. While the AVCRs show profitable trends for most crops, the share of farmers with profitable AVCRs declined following the fertilizer price surges. Our findings offer important insights for policy focusing on mitigating the adverse effects of fertilizer price shocks.

Estimating the direct and indirect effects of improved seed adoption on yields: Evidence from DNA-fingerprinting, crop cuts, and self-reporting in Ethiopia

Farmers' adoption of improved crop varieties could increase yields in low-income countries. However, the presence of measurement error in household surveys poses a challenge to estimating true returns. Using the 2018/19 Ethiopia Socio-economic Survey, we analyze the impacts of how three sources of measurement error: misperceptions of seed varieties, land area, and quantities harvested affect maize yields and input use. These data include DNA-fingerprinting of seed, GPS plot size information, and crop cuts that we compare to farmers’ self-reported estimates of these measures. Results indicate that the measurement error in self-reported seed variety adoption, especially from farmers who did not know they were using improved maize varieties, attenuates their estimated yield gains by 25 percentage points on average. The enhanced genetics of improved seed varieties accounts for a 41-percentage point yield increase over non-improved varieties, and increased input use accounts for a 30-percentage point gain for improved varieties on average.

JEL classification: D13, O13, N57, Q12, Q16

Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda

Fertilizer subsidies are a prominent feature of many agricultural development strategies in sub-Saharan Africa, but few countries have the necessary data to make rapid decisions about their management in the face of exogenous shocks. This was the case in Rwanda following the rapid increase in international fertilizer prices in 2021–22. Working within a constrained fiscal space that followed the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of Rwanda aimed to revise its fertilizer subsidy system to accommodate higher fertilizer import prices without compromising progress against its agricultural growth targets. This paper explores both the economic analysis and policy process that shaped decision-making around Rwanda’s fertilizer subsidy system during the period 2020–23. The paper centers on the design and application of a microsimulation model that estimated—almost in real time—the impact of increased fertilizer prices on crop production during this period. It then explores the policy outcomes that followed, emphasizing the scope for subsidy reductions even in the midst of crisis, the critical importance of strengthening agricultural data systems, and lessons for countries facing similar challenges.

Storage management practices and mycotoxin contamination of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) in northwest Ethiopia

Mycotoxins are toxic metabolites produced by certain fungal species that affect animal and human health. Data on the relationships between specific traditional storage management practices of sorghum and mycotoxin contamination are rarely available in Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to investigate current sorghum storage management practices in major sorghum producer locations in Northwest Ethiopia and their relationships with mycotoxin contamination. Sorghum storage management practices of 120 farmers were surveyed, the occurrence of multiple mycotoxins in samples from their stored sorghum was determined, and potential relationships between the traditional storage management practices and mycotoxin contamination were analyzed. Samples were analyzed using UPLC-MS/MS for 33 different mycotoxins. About 88% of the samples were contaminated with at least one mycotoxin. The detected mycotoxins belong to one of the four mycotoxin categories, produced by Aspergillus spp, Fusarium spp, Penicillium spp, and Alternaria spp. From the total, 3%, 7%, and 3% of the samples were contaminated with aflatoxins, ochratoxin A, and zearalenone, respectively, above the EU regulatory limits. The measured concentrations that bypassed EU regulatory limits were 9.14, 18.34 and 29.13 (μg/kg) for total aflatoxins, 5.31, 12.50, 14.94, 15.77, 32.94, 56.81, 58.07 and 112.59 (μg/kg) for Ochratoxin A, and 123.48, 238.43 and 431.78 (μg/kg) for Zearalenone, respectively. Logistic regression showed relationships between the traditional storage management practices with mycotoxin contamination. The age and the experience of the Main Person Responsible for Storage management (MPRS), the placement of the storage structure, and the insecticide application showed negative relationships with multi-mycotoxin contamination. On the other hand, the educational status of the MPRS and the type of storage structure showed positive relationships with mycotoxin contamination. Therefore, it is recommended that farmers receive training in proper sorghum storage management to further reduce the mycotoxin contamination in the grain.

Do youth work in agriculture? Short-term dynamics of on-farm rural youth employment in Tanzania and Malawi

How good are livestock statistics in Africa? Can nudging and direct counting improve the quality of livestock asset data?

Livestock statistics in most low- and middle-income countries rely on self-reported, survey-based measures. However, respondents may have various challenges to accurately report livestock ownership. This study introduces a novel set of survey and measurement experiments to improve livestock statistics in Africa. We introduce two innovations to conventional livestock data collection methods. First, we address some of the sources of potential underreporting in livestock assets by introducing an explicit nudge to a random subset of survey respondents. Second, we arrange for direct counting of livestock assets by enumerators and local livestock experts. We demonstrate that self-reported data on livestock ownership suffer from significant and systematic underreporting. While our nudge affects only the reporting behaviour of households with larger stocks of livestock, direct counting increases total livestock ownership by 39 percent and the reported number of cattle by 43 percent. These impacts are evident at both the extensive and intensive margins of livestock asset ownership, as well as considering the number and value of livestock assets owned. Such mismeasurement in self-reported livestock data can lead to underestimation of the contribution of the livestock sector to national economies. Furthermore, direct counting generates important spillover effects to livestock species not explicitly counted in the survey. We finally show that underreporting in self-reported livestock data is systematic and hence consequential for statistical inferences. Our findings underscore that survey designs that can address specific sources of bias in self-reported livestock data can meaningfully improve livestock asset measurement in Africa.

Governing informality: Drivers of service provision in Nigeria's food wholesale markets

How does governance affect service provision in Nigeria's wholesale food markets? Sufficient services, such as water, waste collection, and toilet access, are essential for enhancing the safety of healthy and nutritious foods, such as vegetables and fish, and improving the welfare of those who depend on informal trade for their livelihoods. However, these are often substandard in many informal markets, exposing traders and consumers who rely on such markets to higher levels of foodborne hazards and undermining the efficacy of other food safety interventions. Using data from 299 wholesale markets across seven states and the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria, this paper examines how four governance mechanisms-incentives, information, authority, and capacity-are associated with five services: waste collection, market toilet access, water provision, electricity, and security. We find that having an elected, rather than appointed, market chairperson positively influences waste collection and provision of security. By contrast, larger utility investments, such as water and electricity, are less influenced by governance structures within the markets. Markets located in local government areas (LGAs) under appointed rather than elected governments are associated with worse performance across all services, demonstrating that efforts to address market service delivery need to be embedded in a holistic understanding of multi-level governance dynamics. The findings emphasize that improving food safety and traders' welfare via better service delivery requires empowering stakeholders in informal market governance who not only hold the authority to deliver a diverse set of services but also possess the political incentives to do so.

Pathways to power in fragile settings: Rethinking women’s roles in agriculture and food systems

Research shows that women play pivotal roles in farming—across value chains, and in food systems as a whole. With harmful effects of climate change, conflict, forced migration, and other problems on the rise, many women around the world find themselves in increasingly fragile settings—creating new challenges in efforts to achieve gender equity and empowerment in food systems.

An IFPRI-organized March 13 session at the NGO Forum on the 69th Commission on the Status of Women at United Nations Headquarters in New York highlighted recent research on different aspects of how women in fragile food systems can become empowered. Evidence shows that when equipped with tools, voice, and recognition, women act—not only to improve their own well-being but to strengthen resilience across households and communities.

Navigating Nigeria’s food system challenges in the face of inflation and reform

Main Messages:
1. Low-income households in both urban and rural areas are hardest hit by rising food prices. Post-reform (fuel subsidies removal and exchange rate liberalization) price shocks and persistent inflation have disproportionately affected poor urban and rural households, forcing them to reduce food consumption and dietary diversity. Malnutrition and food insecurity are on the rise, particularly among children and women-headed households, with sharpest impacts in conflict-affected areas.
2. Small-scale farmers are not benefiting proportionately from price increases. Despite surging food prices, small-scale farmers face escalating input costs, poor market access, and structural in-efficiencies that leave them with marginal gains far below the rate of inflation.
3. Trading networks maintain healthy margins, amplifying systemic inefficiencies. Traders and intermediaries dominate the food supply chain, passing on increased costs to consumers while pre-serving or even increasing their profit margins, highlighting inequities in the distribution of benefits along the value chain.
4. Recent economic reforms and external shocks exacerbate structural weaknesses. Economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate adjustments, have amplified existing challenges in the food system, including high transport costs, inadequate infrastructure, and fragmented markets.
5. Policy interventions should protect vulnerable groups and strengthen local food systems. Addressing these disparities requires targeted safety nets for consumers, support for small-scale farmers, and systemic investments to reduce inefficiencies in the value chain while promoting cli-mate-resilient food systems.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: February 2025

Sudan faces significant challenges due to prolonged conflicts, political instability, and economic disruptions. The ongoing conflict is disrupting market systems, exacerbating price volatility, and limiting the availability of essential commodities. Supply chain disruptions, insecurity, and infrastructure damage often restrict market access and contribute to rising food and fuel costs. In conflict-affected areas, transportation and security challenges intensify price disparities, making staple foods and key agricultural inputs increasingly unaffordable, especially for vulnerable populations.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is conducting a comprehensive market monitoring initiative across Sudan’s 18 states, tracking the prices and assessing the availability and quality of essential commodities, observing changes in exchange rates, and gathering qualitative insights from market actors. This report provides an overview of market trends in Sudan during February 2025. It will be updated monthly.

Economic and welfare implications of the reduction of US foreign assistance in Malawi

For over a decade, the US has consistently ranked as either the largest or second-largest donor to Malawi. Annual foreign assistance disbursements have averaged over $360 million between 2020 and 2023. In January 2025 the US government suspended all US-funded foreign aid programs. As of April 2025, the available information suggests that funding for many of these programs in Malawi has been withdrawn, resulting in an estimated decline in US foreign assistance to Malawi of around 59% for 2025. As a result, Malawi faces a potential decline in foreign exchange inflows of around $177 million in 2025, a loss equivalent to approximately 6.3% of the annual merchandise import bill. With Malawi’s economy currently highly vulnerable, lacking the buffers needed to absorb shocks, the eco nomic and welfare implications of these recent events are concerning. The suspensions may lead to an economic contraction from reduced activities by US implementing partners, immediate pressure on the exchange rate (endangering the affordability or availability of critical imports) and declining productivity in key sectors such as agriculture. Deteriorating health and education outcomes could further affect the productivity of workers in the longer run. In this policy note we combine qualitative and quantitative information gathered in-country with modeled results of the possible economywide impacts of the reduction of US foreign assistance on key economic and welfare indicators over the next six years. We also discuss policy options that could help mitigate some of the adverse impacts.

Ghana: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Ghana’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources:
1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity prices and foreign capital flows and
2) Domestic risks associated with production shocks in volatile sectors of the Ghanaian economy, such as primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation, are often caused by extreme weather.
The significance of these risks is assessed based on the range of the shocks’ impacts on four main economic and development indicators: total GDP, private consumption, poverty rate, and prevalence of undernourishment.
The analysis uses data mining methods to simultaneously sample many shocks from historical data, con structing a comprehensive set of realistic shock scenarios for Ghana. A country-specific, economywide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model then simulates the impacts of these shocks on both total and sector-specific economic outcomes, deriving changes in poverty and undernourishment for each shock scenario. Finally, machine learning techniques are applied to obtain metrics for the relative im portance of different risk factors.
The results suggest that Ghana’s trade-oriented economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with fluctuations in world prices of key exports—particularly energy and metals—significantly influencing eco nomic activity and the country’s ability to finance imports. Poverty and undernourishment risks present a more complex picture, with a significant difference between urban and rural risk factors. Rural households, which are generally poorer than urban households and constitute the majority of the poor and undernourished population, are more exposed to domestic production volatility factors.
Understanding these economic risks is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on potential risk management strategies, such as promoting domestic productivity growth and diversifying economic activity away from high-risk sectors.

Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Uganda’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources:
1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity prices and foreign capital flows and
2) Domestic risks associated with production shocks in volatile sectors of the Uganda economy, such as primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation, are often caused by extreme weather.
The significance of these risks is assessed based on the range of the shocks’ impacts on four main economic and development indicators: total GDP, private consumption, poverty rate, and prevalence of undernourishment.
The analysis uses data mining methods to simultaneously sample many shocks from historical data, con structing a comprehensive set of realistic shock scenarios for Uganda. A country-specific, economywide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model then simulates the impacts of these shocks on both total and sector-specific economic outcomes, deriving changes in poverty and undernourishment for each shock scenario. Finally, machine learning techniques are applied to obtain metrics for the relative im portance of different risk factors.
The results suggest that domestic production volatility is the primary risk factor affecting GDP and poverty in Uganda, whereas world markets and domestic risks are equally important for household consumption and undernourishment. Individually, the most critical risk factors identified include production volatility in root crops, volatility in foreign capital flows, and volatility in fishery production, with the latter being particularly significant for rural low-income households.
Understanding these economic risks is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on potential risk management strategies, such as promoting domestic productivity growth and diversifying economic activity away from high-risk sectors.

Principles of engagement and vision to action for transdisciplinary research and co-design in agroecology

Living labs or living landscapes are gaining momentum as sub-national territories within which sustainable food system transformation is sought through multi-stakeholder engagement processes.

In the CGIAR Agroecology Initiative, 11 ALLs were established in 8 countries. Here, ALLs are defined as multi-stakeholder spaces in which agroecological innovations can be identified, co-designed, tested, and adopted.

These landscapes emerge as coherent territories that have fuzzy boundaries defined by the functionality and meaning bestowed onto them by their diverse users, who care about and are willing to take transformative action in pursuit of just food system transitions, rather than by geographical or administrative limits.

ALLs respond to the common challenges that external partners face in accompanying and supporting local stakeholders on agroecological transition pathways without imposing their own views and agendas. ALLs offer an opportunity to act as transformation vehicles that foster transdisciplinary research, including the co-creation of knowledge and co-design of innovations. Principle-based engagement methods can help to support and enable locally driven transformation processes.

IFPRI strategy for engagement with CAADP 2026-2035: Supporting implementation at regional, sub-regional, and national levels

This document outlines a comprehensive strategy for the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to support implementation of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) 2026–2035. With its renewed focus on transforming Africa’s agrifood systems, CAADP provides a framework to address criti cal challenges captured in six strategic objectives that cover sustainable food production, agro-industrialization, investment mobilization, food and nutrition security, inclusivity, resilience, and governance. Building on its long history of support to the CAADP process, IFPRI’s engagement with CAADP 2026–2035 will focus on providing evi dence, strengthening policy processes, building capacity, and supporting investment mobilization to accelerate Africa’s agrifood system transformation. This strategy identifies specific entry points and pathways through which IFPRI can contribute to achieving CAADP’s six strategic objectives including: (1) research and knowledge genera tion; (2) technical assistance and policy support; (3) capacity development; (4) investment and financing support; (5) monitoring, evaluation, and learning; and (6) stakeholder engagement and convening. Working closely with other CGIAR centers and leveraging its country and regional offices, expertise, partnerships, and extensive expe rience in Africa, IFPRI aims to play a pivotal key role in enabling CAADP’s vision of agricultural transformation and inclusive growth, contributing to food security, economic development, and resilience across the continent. By working across regional, subregional, and national levels, IFPRI will engage with partners to help translate CAADP 2025’s ambitious goals into tangible outcomes for food security, resilience, and economic growth.

IFPRI-Sudan: Generating evidence-based solutions for strengthening humanitarian response and economic resilience

Sudan is experiencing one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in its modern history due to the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Sudan is now suffering the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. The war has devastated livelihoods, displaced millions, and significantly weakened the country’s agrifood systems and broader economic structures. In response, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), along with its partners, has intensified its research and policy engagement in Sudan through the Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP), which was launched in 2022.

IFPRI’s work on Sudan is centered on addressing fragility, post-conflict recovery, resilience-building, and economic development. Its research and policy engagements focus on food security, economy-wide modeling, social protection, micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSME), and agricultural resilience as it works to provide critical evidence-based insights to support recovery efforts that will enable Sudan to regain peace and economic growth and stability. Through high-frequency data collection, impact evaluations, and policy dialogues, the SSSP team has continued to deliver data-driven solutions to inform humanitarian responses, economic revitalization, and development planning in Sudan. By collaborating with organizations such as the World Food Programme (WFP), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Bank, and other CGIAR centers and initiatives, IFPRI, through SSSP, has generated information to design effective interventions for conflict-affected populations and institutions working to rebuild Sudan’s economy.

Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP): Background and research output

The Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP), one of the country programs of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), commenced operations in May 2022 from the premises of the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development, its official host institution in Sudan. Established with funding from USAID, the United States Agency for International Development, the program has also formed partnerships or received support from a number of prominent organizations, including the CGIAR Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration, the CGIAR Initiative on NEXUS Gains, the United Nations Development Programme, the World Bank, the World Food Programme, the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement
Center (CIMMYT).

The unmet financial needs of intermediary firms within agri-food value chains in Uganda and Bangladesh

JEL Codes: L14, L81, O13, Q13

The costs of a multisectoral nutrition program implemented through a poultry value chain platform in Burkina Faso

Undernutrition in women and young children in Burkina Faso is a critical problem. Egg consumption is low despite many households raising poultry. The Soutenir l'Exploitation Familiale pour Lancer l'Élevage des Volailles et Valoriser l'Économie Rurale (SELEVER) project, an integrated agriculture-nutrition intervention, promoted egg consumption and sales to investigate the impact of poultry production on child nutrition. Multisectoral nutrition-sensitive agriculture programs address nutrition deficits but lack comparable cost information. This study estimates the costs of the SELEVER program, an integrated poultry and nutrition intervention. The study estimates the program's economic costs using a standardized methodology from the Strengthening Economic Evaluation for Multisectoral Strategies for Nutrition (SEEMS-Nutrition) consortium, which aligns financial and economic costs along program impact pathways, allocating costs by activities and inputs. We conducted qualitative interviews and focus groups on time allocation and beneficiary out-of-pocket costs. Incremental economic costs were calculated by combining expenditures and economic costs. The total incremental program cost was USD$18,084,727.68 over 5 years, with annual incremental costs of USD$209.20 per direct beneficiary and $796.26 per household. Major cost drivers included overhead (18%), poultry extension (17%), training (16%), household counseling (7%), technical assistance (7%) and microcredit (6%). Total input costs were dominated by personnel (51%), supplies (13%), agricultural inputs (10%) and overhead (9%). We present the total incremental costs of a multisectoral nutrition intervention to generate revenue with poultry. The costs per beneficiary were higher than similar interventions, underscoring the need for cost-effectiveness evaluations of multisectoral nutrition programs. A standardized cost methodology facilitates comparisons with multisectoral nutrition interventions and builds the evidence base.

Ethiopia: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are Ethiopia’s national economy and population to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to Ethiopia’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, April 2025

Retail prices of maize fell by 21% in April due to the arrival of newly harvested maize on the market.
Relatively cheap imports from all three neighboring countries contributed to the decline in maize prices.
Maize retailed below the government-mandated price in 21 out of 26 monitored markets.

Synopsis: Commercialization and dietary diversity of Rwandan smallholder farmers: a focus on women and youth headed households

In the last two decades, the government of Rwanda has significantly lowered stunting among children under five years from 48% in 2000 to 33% in 2020 and recognizes dietary diversity as one the approaches to overcome malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies. A key priority of the Second National Strategy for Transformation (NST2) is to tackle malnutrition and to reduce stunting rates among children. Therefore, using a household dietary diversity score as a proxy for household access to nutritious foods, this policy note outlines how commercialization impacts dietary diversity, with a focus on women and youth headed households. Key findings include:
The rural smallholder farmers diet is predominantly based on cereals, roots and tubers as well as vegetables.
Even when controlling for relevant variables, women do not have more diverse consumption patterns, however, they do, relative to male headed households, consume more diverse foods the greater their level of commercialization.
Despite an overall lack of resources and income, youth-headed households show a positive relationship with household dietary diversity when compared to mature-headed households.
Determinants that positively influence household dietary diversity include the level of commercialization, household non-farm assets, market access, education of the household head, the presence of children under five in the household, irrigation, land size, and livestock holdings.

Impact of food system interventions to increase fruit and vegetable intake among urban adults in Nigeria and Vietnam

Fruit and vegetable consumption is below the WHO recommendations, globally, in Southeast Asia, and in West Africa. Affordability, accessibility, and acceptability are the main drivers of consumption. Nutrition-sensitive food system interventions that address these drivers may be effective in increasing fruit and vegetable consumption. This study evaluates the effect of an integrated nutrition-sensitive program that aimed to increase fruit and vegetable consumption in low-income urban adults in Hanoi, Vietnam (n = 582), and Ibadan, Nigeria (n = 626), through the simultaneous implementation of three interventions at the market and consumer levels. Fruit and vegetable intake data were collected after eight months of exposure to the program with repeated quantitative 24-hour recalls and exposure effect was estimated with inverse probability weighting with regression adjustment, adjusting for potential confounders. The impact size on total fruits and vegetables (144 g/d, 95%CI 93, 196), fruits (137 g/d, 95%CI 93, 183) and vegetables (6 g/d, 95%CI -12, 24) showed that intake was higher in the exposed Nigerian population than the control group. In Vietnam, intakes of fruits and vegetables in the exposed group did not statistically differ from the control group when controlling for differences between groups with propensity scores. Participants exposed to all three interventions reported slightly higher intakes compared to those who were exposed to fewer interventions, but these differences were not statistically significant. Integrated approaches of nutrition-sensitive food system interventions need to be implemented to increase fruit and vegetable consumption. Co-creation of interventions provides the possibility to address the different drivers and barriers of healthy diets specific of the context.

Adapting the Women's Empowerment in Nutrition Index: Lessons from Kenya

Women face a disproportionate burden of malnutrition and food insecurity. Research has shown that women's empowerment can buffer women against nutritional problems. This paper contributes to ongoing efforts to measure women's empowerment that are both context-sensitive and universal, focusing on the recently developed Women's Empowerment in Nutrition Index (WENI). Earlier research has shown it is both a valid construct and positively related to dietary and nutritional outcomes of women in South Asia. We establish that WENI is generalizable to agropastoral and pastoral Kenya, an area with substantially different livelihoods, food system, norms, and institutions than South Asia. We find that a locally contextualized WENI is strongly associated with women's body mass index and dietary diversity as well as household level food insecurity. We also present findings for two shorter variations of WENI: an abbreviated WENI (A-WENI) and a cross context WENI (CC-WENI). A-WENI contains a small subset of WENI indicators identified using machine learning with South Asian data and therefore is context-specific. CC-WENI does not contain indicators specific to the validation context. We find that they perform comparably well with caveats. Thus, as use of WENI expands we recommend adapting WENI for in-depth analyses of women's nutritional empowerment; using CC-WENI for cross-context comparisons; and using A-WENI for rapid appraisals of community level progress in a given context.

Egypt: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are Egypt’s national economy and population to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to Egypt’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?

A synthesis of changes in women’s empowerment from Cultivate Africa’s Future agricultural development projects

There are few examples of assessments of project portfolios that aim to support women’s empowerment in agriculture and livestock in low- and middle-income countries and that employ a consistent framework and standardized, validated measures of women’s empowerment across the entirety of the projects (see also Baltenweck et al. 2024). This brief synthesizes and presents lessons about women’s empowerment from the achievements of a portfolio of agricultural development projects, where empowerment was consistently measured across the portfolio using the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI).

We address two key research questions: (i) What did the agricultural development projects achieve in terms of women’s empowerment? How does this aggregate at the project portfolio level? (ii) What is the significance and some of the key applications of the results to inform future policies, program implementation, extension work and other agriculture-related interventions that aim to support women’s empowerment?

Pathways Linking Climate Change to Livestock Production and Consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Protocol for a Systematic Review

The sub-Saharan African (SSA) region has a large livestock population but low productivity and animal source foods consumption which contributed to nutritional problems. Climate change further reduces productivity, impacting the livelihoods of the rural poor who largely rely on livestock. The agri-food system of SSA is characterized by small holder traditional family farms, poor technological uptake, poor infrastructure, poor veterinary services, and weak adaptability to climate effects. Owing to the unique challenges in climate change and agri-food system interface in SSA, contextualized evidence is very important to design interventions. We aimed to synthesize evidence on the pathways linking climate to livestock production and animal source food consumption in SSA context. Understanding the pathways linking climate change to livestock production and consumption in SSA is essential for formulating strategies that enhance food security, improve nutrition, and support rural livelihoods while mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change.

The incoming systematic review will be based on a previously developed systematic map. In the previous systematic map, we searched eight bibliographic databases, institutional website, conducted web-based search, and used citation snowballing to capture all relevant studies. The search was carried out in English and focused on SSA contexts wherever applicable. The search results were imported into Rayyan and screened for relevance based on title, abstract, and full text. At each stage of the screening process, the numbers of studies included and excluded were recorded. From the included studies of the systematic map, we will filter primary, empirical, quantitative articles conducted 2000 and onwards and use for this systematic review. We will extract the main findings of the articles along with key study characteristics and potential sources of heterogeneity. Included studies will be subjected to JBI’s quality appraisal checklists. A narrative synthesis of data from all studies included in the systematic review will be generated to describe the existing evidence along with study findings. Where data are suitably comparable, quantitative synthesis (meta-analysis) will be performed.

Guilty pleasures: Expenditure elasticities of ultra-processed foods and paid meals in India

The rising consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) and paid food away from home (FAFH) is a growing concern for developing countries like India, which face the double burden of persistent malnutrition and increasing obesity. This paper examines the trends and drivers of UPF and paid meal consumption in rural and urban India from 2014 to 2019. Using high-frequency household consumption survey data, we estimate the expenditure elasticity of these food categories. Our results show a significant increase in the consumption of UPFs and paid meals over the study period. The expenditure elasticity of both UPF and FAFH exceeds 1 on average, indicating that they are highly responsive to income growth. Notably, poorer and urban households display higher elasticities compared to wealthier and rural households. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition reveals that rising incomes and evolving dietary preferences contribute to the increase in UPF and paid meal consumption. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions to promote healthier food choices, especially among lower-income groups, as India's economy continues to grow.

The impact of the African continental Free Trade Agreement: A continentwide macroeconomic assessment and distributional analysis in Nigeria and Rwanda

Africa remains the least open continent in the world, with high trade restrictions for both intra- and extra-African partners. These restrictions include both tariff and nontariff measures, as well as high transportation costs due to poor infrastructure. However, previous studies have highlighted the crucial role of intra-regional trade in boosting national economies, promoting development, and enhancing food security by increasing the availability of food and stabilizing domestic markets. In particular, informal cross-border trade, which is pervasive in Africa, contributes to food security, although further research is needed on its magnitude.

This research aims to enhance the understanding of current and future trends in Africa’s food systems, focusing on continental) trade and its impact on national economies and markets. Its objective is to assess the impact of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), the most ambitious regional trade agreement in Africa, on national economies and markets. The study uses state-of-the-art tools, includes informal cross-border trade of agricultural products, and considers realistic scenarios of trade liberalization.

The study finds that the AfCFTA’s impact will be positive, although limited. Because most African countries are already trading under preferential regimes within regional economic communities (RECs), AfCFTA primarily affects trade flows outside of these communities. We observe traditional trade diversion effects from partners outside of Africa (up to −1.68 percent) and trade creation within the continent (up to 18.48 percent). Like the agreement’s macroeconomic impacts on gross domestic product growth and trade, its effects on poverty are also limited, with more positive effects in Rwanda than in Nigeria, the two countries analyzed in the microsimulation. A gender bias is present in the results: Female-headed house-holds benefit less from the agreement than male-headed households. Given the continent’s high trans-portation costs, significant gains can occur by reducing transport margins in addition to implementing the AfCFTA. In that case, the positive results are amplified, while the negative effects are dampened.
Because AfCFTA implementation is still in early stages, more information is needed to fine-tune the results. First, it is important to examine the assumptions behind the selection of sensitive and excluded products. In the absence of official lists, which are not available for most countries, the final lists may differ from the selection made in this report, although the method we use has proven to be effective for past agreements. In addition, rules of origin and other nontariff measures will play a significant role in the future of the agreement, affecting the results and likely changing the distribution of gains and losses.

Synopsis: The dynamic impact of alternative livestock sector interventions and spending options in Rwanda

This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of various livestock interventions—feed, breeding, and health—and budget allocation strategies (balanced, feed-oriented, breeding-oriented, and health oriented) in the context of Rwanda’s economic and livestock systems. Using an economic and livestock systems integrated framework, the research highlights moderate yet sustained impacts on agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and significant improvements in the livestock sector. Breeding interventions have the largest cumulative effect on agricultural GDP, while health measures, particularly dewormers, yield long-term gains in livestock productivity. Under the balanced scenario, breeding contributes significantly to both meat and milk sector GDP, while feed interventions show a smaller impact overall. The model estimates the economic and livestock systems over a period of five years (t1-t5) from a base year at t0, which corresponds to the Fifth Structural Transformation in Agriculture (PSTA5) period.

SELEVER study: Endline survey

The Soutenir l’Exploitation Familiale pour Lancer l’Élevage des Volailles et Valoriser l’Économie Rurale (SELEVER) study was a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted in rural Burkina Faso to evaluate the impact of an integrated agriculture-nutrition intervention on the diets, health, and nutritional status of women and children. The intervention package combined poultry value chain development, women’s empowerment initiatives, and a behavior change communication strategy to promote healthier diets and improved feeding, care, and hygiene practices.

Data collection took place in rural communities across three regions—Boucle du Mouhoun, Centre-Ouest, and Haut-Bassins—over four rounds between March 2017 and August 2020. The baseline survey (Round 1) was conducted from March to June 2017, during the post-harvest season, and included a sample of 1,800 households. Follow-up 1 and Follow-up 2 (Rounds 2 and 3) were carried out during the lean season, with data collected in September–October 2017 and September–October 2019, respectively, from a subsample of 1,080 households. The endline survey (Round 4) took place from March to August 2020, with a temporary pause in data collection due to COVID-19 restrictions.

The study aimed to assess the effectiveness of the intervention package in enhancing nutritional outcomes for women and children in the targeted communities. The data presented here are from the endline survey.

SELEVER study: Baseline survey

The Soutenir l’Exploitation Familiale pour Lancer l’Élevage des Volailles et Valoriser l’Économie Rurale (SELEVER) study was a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted in rural Burkina Faso to evaluate the impact of an integrated agriculture-nutrition intervention on the diets, health, and nutritional status of women and children. The intervention package combined poultry value chain development, women’s empowerment initiatives, and a behavior change communication strategy to promote healthier diets and improved feeding, care, and hygiene practices.

Data collection took place in rural communities across three regions—Boucle du Mouhoun, Centre-Ouest, and Haut-Bassins—over four rounds between March 2017 and August 2020. The baseline survey (Round 1) was conducted from March to June 2017, during the post-harvest season, and included a sample of 1,800 households. Follow-up 1 and Follow-up 2 (Rounds 2 and 3) were carried out during the lean season, with data collected in September–October 2017 and September–October 2019, respectively, from a subsample of 1,080 households. The endline survey (Round 4) took place from March to August 2020, with a temporary pause in data collection due to COVID-19 restrictions.

The study aimed to assess the effectiveness of the intervention package in enhancing nutritional outcomes for women and children in the targeted communities. The data presented here are from the baseline survey.

SELEVER study: First follow-up survey

The Soutenir l’Exploitation Familiale pour Lancer l’Élevage des Volailles et Valoriser l’Économie Rurale (SELEVER) study was a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted in rural Burkina Faso to evaluate the impact of an integrated agriculture-nutrition intervention on the diets, health, and nutritional status of women and children. The intervention package combined poultry value chain development, women’s empowerment initiatives, and a behavior change communication strategy to promote healthier diets and improved feeding, care, and hygiene practices.

Data collection took place in rural communities across three regions—Boucle du Mouhoun, Centre-Ouest, and Haut-Bassins—over four rounds between March 2017 and August 2020. The baseline survey (Round 1) was conducted from March to June 2017, during the post-harvest season, and included a sample of 1,800 households. Follow-up 1 and Follow-up 2 (Rounds 2 and 3) were carried out during the lean season, with data collected in September–October 2017 and September–October 2019, respectively, from a subsample of 1,080 households. The endline survey (Round 4) took place from March to August 2020, with a temporary pause in data collection due to COVID-19 restrictions.

The study aimed to assess the effectiveness of the intervention package in enhancing nutritional outcomes for women and children in the targeted communities. The data presented here are from the first follow-up survey.

SELEVER study: Second follow-up survey

The Soutenir l’Exploitation Familiale pour Lancer l’Élevage des Volailles et Valoriser l’Économie Rurale (SELEVER) study was a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted in rural Burkina Faso to evaluate the impact of an integrated agriculture-nutrition intervention on the diets, health, and nutritional status of women and children. The intervention package combined poultry value chain development, women’s empowerment initiatives, and a behavior change communication strategy to promote healthier diets and improved feeding, care, and hygiene practices.

Data collection took place in rural communities across three regions—Boucle du Mouhoun, Centre-Ouest, and Haut-Bassins—over four rounds between March 2017 and August 2020. The baseline survey (Round 1) was conducted from March to June 2017, during the post-harvest season, and included a sample of 1,800 households. Follow-up 1 and Follow-up 2 (Rounds 2 and 3) were carried out during the lean season, with data collected in September–October 2017 and September–October 2019, respectively, from a subsample of 1,080 households. The endline survey (Round 4) took place from March to August 2020, with a temporary pause in data collection due to COVID-19 restrictions.

The study aimed to assess the effectiveness of the intervention package in enhancing nutritional outcomes for women and children in the targeted communities. The data presented here are from the second follow-up survey.

Farmers' pesticide use, disposal behavior, and pre-harvest interval: A case study from Nigeria

In Sub-Saharan Africa, small farmers rely heavily rely on synthetic pesticides, the overuse of which poses significant risks to human health, the environment, and food safety. Yet detailed empirical evidence on knowledge of and the knowledge and drivers of pesticide management practices remains scarce, limiting insights for policymakers and development practitioners. To address this gap, we leveraged on data collected from 1556 tomato producers in Northern Nigeria to investigate the determinants of pesticide use behavior using a sequential-exploratory mixed-method approach. We examined a broader range of pest management-related practices than prior literature, including safety equipment usage, pesticide disposal methods, and adherence to pre-harvest intervals (PHIs)-, which is the intervals between the last pesticide application and the crop harvest. We found substantial noncompliance with the recommended practices: 45% of farmers reuse empty pesticide containers for other purposes, 14% discard them on the farm, 15% burn containers in open fires, and 40% harvest tomatoes within 1--5 days after pesticide application, violating the 7-day PHI guideline. These findings suggest that many tomato farmers adopt unsafe practices, which have adverse implications for their health, the environment, and the safety of food available to consumers. We show that training on pesticide disposal and midstream market channels (e.g., wholesalers and aggregators) are strongly correlated with improved pesticide handling and higher PHI compliance. Overall, our results underscore the need for targeted training programs to enhance farmers' awareness of safe pesticide application, disposal practices, and PHI adherence. These efforts should be complemented by stronger regulatory frameworks and mechanisms to align farmer pesticide use practices with consumer preferences for safe products, as observed by in the higher PHI adherence among farmers selling to midstream actors.

Imperfect competition and asymmetric welfare effects of global price and productivity shocks: a CGE model analysis for Senegal

This article investigates the asymmetric effects of global price and productivity shocks on welfare in the context of imperfect competition. The primary objective is to understand how market concentration affects the transmission of economic shocks and their impacts on various households. A CGE model, calibrated on a 2014 social accounting matrix for Senegal, is used. The model features a trading sector operating under a Cournot oligopoly with increasing returns to scale. Two scenarios are simulated: a 15% increase in global import prices and a 10% increase in agricultural productivity, each considering different levels of market concentration. The findings reveal that higher global import prices reduce household well-being, a situation exacerbated by low market competition. In contrast, agricultural productivity gains enhance well-being, with these benefits amplified by greater competition. However, the wealthiest households in Dakar benefit from low competition due to their positions in oligopolistic companies. To maximize household well-being, economic policies should focus on strengthening market competition, particularly in the trading sector. Actions such as reducing entry barriers for new businesses and regulating anti-competitive practices can help mitigate the adverse effects of global price increases and amplify the benefits of agricultural productivity gains.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, February 2025

Highlights
 Retail prices of maize increased by 32 percent in February as a result of a similar decrease in the value of
Malawi Kwacha on the informal market.
 Maize prices were lowest in the Northern region, where informal imports from Tanzania enter the country, and
increased southward.
 At the market exchange rate, retail prices of maize in Malawi were similar to those in Zambia and Mozambique, but lower than in Zimbabwe.

Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agri-food system

Armed actors, including militaries and paramilitaries, are heavily entrenched in the agrifood systems of several low- and middle-income countries, often resulting in negative implications for both agricultural transformation and democratic transitions. However, the role of armed actors is overlooked in the scholarship on the governance of agricultural value chains. To address this gap, this paper focuses on the role of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan's agrifood system. Through over 50 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, the paper traces how the SAF and RSF initially gained their foothold in the agrifood system and how they interact with each other, and the private sector across diverse value chains. We argue that these actors decide to pursue investments in certain value chains depending on the extent to which the private sector is already involved and the degree of technical complexity required to attain more profitable product upgrading. Based on these considerations, we uncover four strategies used by SAF and RSF in different value chains: exclusive capture and rent extraction, competition through biased licensing and quota allocations, acquiescence to existing private competitors when value-addition is too complex, and innovation when potential is high and the private sector is absent. We show how these strategies manifest across value chains as diverse as livestock, wheat, gum Arabic, and horticulture, with secondary applications to other commodities. Given that economic competition between SAF and RSF was a major factor in the outbreak of the 2023 armed conflict, identifying how these strategies emerged and manifested not only contributes to the literature on business-state relations but also expands insights about the political economy antecedents of large-scale conflict.

Quality of routine health and nutrition data in Ethiopia: A systematic review

Background
High-quality data are vital for informed decision-making, enhancing population health, and achieving comprehensive insights. However, there is limited understanding of the consistency and reliability of routine Health Management Information System (HMIS) including nutrition data across diverse regions in Ethiopia. This study systematically reviewed the existing literature to address these knowledge gaps.

Methods
We systematically searched PubMed, HINARI, and Google Scholar for studies published from 2015 onwards to assess HMIS, including nutrition data quality in Ethiopia. The evaluations focused on completeness, consistency, and timeliness metrics defined by the WHO. We included diverse regional studies without indicator restrictions, prioritized data quality metrics as primary outcomes, and explored qualitative reasons for poor data quality as secondary outcomes.

Results
Of the 1790 papers screened, 25 met the inclusion criteria. The completeness of reporting varied widely among studies (50%–100%), with only 21% (4 out of 19) exceeding 90%. The consistency ranged from 38.9% to 90.5%, with only 6% of studies reporting internal consistency above 90%. Other consistency issues included lack of external consistency, indicator discrepancies, and outliers. Timeliness ranged from 41.9% to 93.7%, with 54% of studies reporting below 80%. In addition to the lack of studies addressing nutrition data, the quality was no better than other components of HMIS. The major factors contributing to poor data quality were human resource shortages, insufficient capacity building, behavioural influences, and infrastructural deficits.

Conclusion
The HMIS including nutrition data in Ethiopia, exhibited deficiencies in completeness, consistency, and timeliness, which were largely, attributed to capacity and resource constraints. Interventions should prioritize resource allocation, staff training, supervision, and feedback mechanisms to enhance data quality, thereby improving decision-making processes and population health outcomes.

Ex ante economic impact assessment of the 3R-gene potato in Kenya

Potato late-blight disease is as a major constraint to potato production in Kenya. The use of fungicides to control the disease is limited by the practice of delaying application until the symptoms are visible, and inappropriate application rates and methods. Biotech crops, such as 3R-gene potato, are providing sustainable solutions to crop protection challenges in agriculture, but little is known about their social and economic potential in any country. To gain greater insights into the potential of 3R-gene potato in Kenya, this study evaluates the economic benefits of Asante, Shangi, and Tigoni potato varieties, which are resistant to late blight. Data from experts along the potato value chain and secondary sources are analyzed using the economic surplus model and a real options model. First, experts’ opinions revealed that late-blight disease is responsible for 23% of production loss annually, and that 12% of the production costs are due to the use of fungicides to control late blight disease. Secondly, the study results suggest that the release of 3R-gene Shangi would generate the greatest economic benefits of KES 845.9 million (US$ 8.2 million) annually. The expected net benefits of 3R-gene Asante are KES 7.3 million (US$ 0.07 million) annually. 3R-gene Tigoni, with the lowest potential adoption rates, would be expected to realize a negative net of KES of -1.26 million (US$ -0.01 million) annually. Significant potential economic gains, which is expected to increase with better awareness of biotech crops, support the immediate release of 3R-gene Shangi in Kenya.

Adapting to extreme weather conditions in a developing country: An economywide policy assessment from Malawi

Dietary diversity, eating habits, dietary patterns, food choice, and associated factors among adolescent girls: A convergent parallel mixed-method study in the Mion District of Ghana

Understanding adolescents’ diet and eating behaviours is crucial for informing public health strategies and policies, allowing interventions to be tailored effectively to enhance dietary patterns and improve overall health and quality of life. This study examined dietary patterns, dietary diversity, eating habits, food choice and the factors influencing these among adolescent girls in the Mion District, Ghana. A convergent parallel mixed-method design employing in-depth interviews (n = 30), two focus group discussions (n = 10) and survey data from 882 mother-daughter pairs was used. Key findings indicate that approximately 90% of girls achieved the minimum dietary diversity for women of reproductive age (MDD-W), with most consuming three meals daily. Staples were eaten daily, while fruits and unhealthy foods were less frequently eaten. Moderate/severe food insecurity was negatively associated with the MDD-W, whereas larger household size was positively correlated with the MDD-W. Older girls were less likely to eat breakfast, while household crop farm diversity increased the odds of eating supper on weekends. Moderate/severe food insecurity was inversely associated with intake of animal-sourced foods (ASFs), fruit, and unhealthy foods but positively correlated with vegetable consumption in the past month. Maternal non-literacy was linked to a lower intake of unhealthy foods, while specific ethnic backgrounds negatively influenced ASF intake. Wealthier households demonstrated higher consumption of staples. Qualitatively, health considerations, availability, taste, and cravings were major influencers of food choices. Food aversions were often tied to intolerance, fatigue from consuming the same foods repeatedly, and preferences related to taste and texture. These findings underscore the need for targeted nutritional interventions considering socio-economic and household factors to improve adolescent girls’ dietary habits and overall health.

Enhanced quality of nutrition services during antenatal care through interventions to improve maternal nutrition in Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and India

Background
Quality antenatal care (ANC) services are critical for maternal health and nutrition. Information on the quality of nutrition interventions during ANC is scarce in low- and middle-income countries. We examined the effects of intensified maternal nutrition interventions during ANC on service readiness, provision of care, and experience of care and assessed the inter-relationships between the dimensions of quality.

Methods
We used data from impact evaluations of maternal nutrition interventions in Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and India. We calculated the quality of nutrition services during ANC using information from health facility assessments, health care provider interviews, ANC observations, and client exit interviews. We used structural equation models to examine relationships between the dimensions of quality.

Results
Health facilities in all four countries had a high service readiness component in terms of basic amenities, equipment and supplies, medicines and commodities, and guidelines (mean (x̄) = 8–10 in Bangladesh and Burkina Faso, x̄ = 7–9 in Ethiopia, and x̄ = 6–8 in India). Scores for provision of care were low across the countries but higher in intervention compared to control areas in Bangladesh (5.2 vs. 2.9) and Burkina Faso (5.6 vs. 4.8), but not significantly different in Ethiopia (range = 4.7–5.0) and India (range = 2.6–3.5). For experience of care, client satisfaction scores were high and similar between intervention and control areas in all countries (range = 8.3–9.7), but client experience scores were lower with statistically significant differences observed only in Bangladesh (x̄ = 8.2 in intervention vs. x̄ = 7.1 in control areas). The interventions had significant direct effects on service readiness in Bangladesh (β = 0.07), Burkina Faso (β = 1.20), and Ethiopia (β = 1.0), on the provision of care in Bangladesh (β = 2.27), Burkina Faso (β = 1.27), and India (β = 0.96), and experience of care in Bangladesh (β = 0.21).

Conclusions
In this study, we provided evidence on various dimensions of service quality that may be improved by interventions to strengthen nutrition services during ANC in diverse low- and middle-income countries.

Building Ethiopia’s food security resilience to climate and hydrological change

Historically Ethiopia's food security has been sensitive to climatic variability, but changes in future weather and climate could lead to overall reductions and increased variability in agricultural production, without further adaptation. We present an integrated modelling assessment framework which combines climate, crop, and hydrological modelling to quantify future risks to Ethiopia's food security. We explore the impacts of 2°C and higher climate change scenarios on water availability and crop yields and simulate how future climate shocks may impact Ethiopia's food. We consider three adaptations to agricultural management practices (improved seed varieties, increased use of nitrogen fertilizer and supplementary irrigation) and quantify their effectiveness in enhancing the resilience of Ethiopia's food system to climate and hydrological change by 2050. Results show that, without policy intervention, climate change creates a risk of declining Meher season crop yields across Ethiopia. Under the worst climate change scenario, teff (−12.0%), barley (−6.7%), and wheat (−4.4%) are projected to have the largest decline in average yields, whilst maize (−0.1%) and sorghum (+0.9%) yields are less impacted thanks to more favourable growing conditions. However, the results also indicate that the adaptation options have a bigger beneficial effect than the climate impact. Of the policies evaluated, improved seeds have a relatively greater effect than increased fertilizer use. Supplementary irrigation could help to mitigate increases in crop water requirements under warmer climate conditions and is most effective in drought prone basins and for drought-vulnerable crops. Overall, the results show that locally relevant agricultural policies are necessary to build Ethiopia's food system resilience to climate and hydrological change by the mid-century.

Protocol: Food environment, food choice, diets, and nutrition outcomes of pastoralists in Africa: Scoping review protocol

This is the protocol for a Campbell scoping review. The objectives are as follows: (i) To define and characterize the food environment of pastoralists in Africa; (ii) To identify the domains of the food environment that have been studied in pastoralist settings in Africa; (iii) To assess the relationship between the food environment and food choice, dietary intake, and nutrition outcomes among pastoralists in Africa; and (iv) To map the study designs, methods, and geographical coverage of the studies.

Rural underemployment and urbanisation: Insights from a 9-year panel from Malawi

Rural labour markets in Africa are frequently characterised by underemployment, with farmers unable to fully deploy throughout the year one of their most important assets—their labour. Using a nine-year panel data set on 1,407 working-age adults from rural Malawi, we document changes in rural underemployment over this period and how they are associated with urbanisation. Nearby urban growth is linked to increased hours worked in casual labour (ganyu) and in non-agricultural sectors, at the expense of work on the household farm. Improved urban access is also associated with a small increase in wage labour and, at the intensive margin, with hours supplied in household enterprises. We draw lessons from these results for policies, investments and interventions to leverage urban growth for rural development.

Evaluating the gendered credit constraints and uptake of an insurance-linked credit product among smallholder farmers in Kenya