PUBLICATIONS

The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria

Over the past decade Nigeria has experienced persistent food price inflation and substantial volatility, driven by domestic fragilities and global shocks. Three major shocks – the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), the Ukraine-Russia war (2022), and fuel subsidy reform (2023) – drove large and uneven price increases, with wheat prices rising by 63.3% and brown sorghum by 83.9%. Volatility was highest for wheat flour and groundnuts, with coefficients of variation of 0.53 and 0.51, reflecting Nigeria’s dependence on imports and sensitivity to external price shocks. This study utilizes high-frequency retail price data for eight staple food commodities across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory to analyze spatial and temporal food price dynamics, volatility patterns, and their welfare implications. To quantify welfare impacts, we use the International Food Policy Research Institute’s Food Price Simulator. Results show a 9.1 percentage point increase in food poverty (from 42.9% to 52.0%) and an 11.6-point rise in undernourishment (from 40.0% to 51.6%). Lower-income households reduced food expenditures by 12.7%, compared to 9.5% for higher-income groups, reflecting disproportionate exposure to food inflation. Northern zones had relatively lower prices for traditional grains due to more favorable agroecological conditions, while southern regions faced higher prices due to higher transport costs and limited local production. Conflict-affected northeastern states exhibited the highest volatility and food insecurity. We propose a three-pronged policy agenda: short-term safety nets and strategic reserves, medium-term reforms to strengthen market connectivity through improved transport and storage infrastructure, and long-term investments in climate-resilient, inclusive food systems.

Digital tool integration, biodiversity, and the potato value chain in Kenya: Results from a baseline survey

Potato farmers in Kenya grapple with various challenges along the value chain, including limited access to quality planting materials such as seeds and fertilizers, insufficient storage and postharvest handling facilities, fluctuating market prices, and unreliable market information systems. These challenges are further exacerbated for women and youth because of persistent social gaps in the agriculture sector. Digital tools can play a vital role in addressing these challenges by providing access to valuable agricultural information, weather forecasts, and best practices that help farmers make informed decisions and improve crop management. However, challenges persist in digital tool adoption within the agricultural value chains in sub-Saharan Africa.

The study aims to assess the impact of digital tool adoption and support on socioeconomic and agriculture-related outcomes in Kenya’s potato value chain. It piggybacks on an ongoing digital tool integration program, Business Development and Coaching (BDEC), conducted by the Farm to Market Alliance (FtMA), which targets agripreneurs in Farmer Service Centers (FSCs). By comparing a treatment group that receives this training with a control group continuing business as usual, the study evaluates the effects of agripreneurs’ adoption and expanded use of digital tools on farmers’ agriculture-based livelihoods, income generation, and job creation metrics, with a focus on youth employment and gender disparities.

Signaling, screening, or sunk costs? Experimental evidence on how prices affect agricultural technology adoption in East Africa

Free samples are a widely used strategy to introduce new products or technologies, offering prospective users the opportunity to gain firsthand experience and potentially facilitate diffusion through social networks. However, concerns remain that giving away products for free may reduce their perceived value, increasing the risk that recipients will underutilize, repurpose, or resell the product rather than use it for its intended purpose. We explore three mechanisms through which charging a positive price may increase uptake, intended use and subsequent adoption of a new technology: (1) a signaling effect, where a positive price conveys higher product quality; (2) a screening effect, whereby payment deters users who do not value the product and targets those more likely to use it; and (3) a sunk cost effect, where paying a positive price induces a psychological commitment to use. We test how these pricing mechanisms shape uptake, use, and subsequent adoption of recently released seed varieties of staple food crops, drawing on a field experiment with smallholder farmers in Uganda and Ethiopia. We find that willingness to pay is a reliable predictor of subsequent use of seed trial packs, pointing to the value of modest prices for targeting likely adopters. At the same time, sunk cost effects are context specific and often negative, suggesting that charging farmers can reduce their ability or willingness to experiment. These findings carry important implications for how pricing strategies can be designed to promote technology adoption in low-income settings.

Africa Report: External development financial flows to food systems

The 3FS report series contains three key components that together provide first-of its kind evidence on financial flows to food systems:

• Country reports from the Governments of Kenya, Niger and Peru, which piloted the 3FS Framework to generate first-time in-country evidence on food systems financing. These reports visualize domestic public resources and external development finance in a complementary manner. The next step is to incorporate private sector investment to complete the financial landscape. Furthermore, seven additional governments across Africa and Asia have formally requested support in applying the 3FS approach to track their own food systems financing.

• A global report on the state of external development financial flows to food systems in support of low-income countries and middle-income countries. The report captures trends before and after 2021, the year of the United Nations Food Systems Summit – a key benchmark for assessing global and national commitments to scaling up concessional financing for food systems transformation. It explores:
- How much external development financing has been provided
- What is being financed
- The types of financial instruments used, ranging from grants to highly concessional and concessional loans

The global report also profiles major donors and their financing patterns and highlights top recipient regions and countries, with particular attention to how resource allocations align with food systems vulnerabilities. Finally, it includes an annex contributed by the Global Network Against Food Crises, which examines the immediate prospects for bilateral funding for food assistance and beyond. The annex explores the relationship between humanitarian and development financing for food systems in the context of ongoing shifts in bilateral funding.

Healthy diets and the role of micro, small, and medium enterprises: Examining Ethiopia’s food environment

Micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) play an important role in the food environment in many low- and middle-income countries. But there is little systematic knowledge about the opportunities they have and constraints they face in trying to grow their businesses. To contribute to building this knowledge base, we draw upon linked household–enterprise surveys collected in two districts in Ethiopia in 2023. To learn about the constraints faced by these enterprises, we examine differences in organizational characteristics and business practices by outlet type, location, and manager gender and education among MSMEs that sell food. The results suggest that while there are clear availability constraints for specific types of foods, there are some strategies that could help MSMEs that retail healthy foods increase sales. If policymakers or others are interested in supporting sales through the food environment, interventions such as business training, service access, and capacity building on nutrition would best fit their needs.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: September 2025

In September 2025, Sudan’s markets showed relative stability despite conflict, inflation, and weather related disruptions. Cereal and vegetable prices remained broadly stable, while meat, oilseeds, and fuel saw moderate fluctuations. Availability of most essential goods improved slightly, though Darfur states continued to record the highest prices. The parallel exchange rate rose to about 3,100 SDG/USD, widening the gap with the official rate. Traders cited transport costs, heavy rains, and checkpoint fees as key drivers of higher prices, though logistical challenges eased from August. Liquidity and infrastructure conditions improved: 71 percent of merchants reported no cash short ages and 93 percent faced no storage or power issues. However, security risks persisted in Darfur and Kordofan, affecting trade safety. Profit margins remained mostly stable, while tax compliance declined, especially at the federal level. Despite ongoing challenges, merchants remain resilient—two-thirds plan to maintain current trade levels, and nearly one-fifth aim to expand, reflecting cautious optimism amid uncertainty.

Malawi: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Malawi’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors, seed systems, and farmers credit are shown to be the most cost-effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Investments in extension and advisory services for livestock, SME traders, and seed subsidy also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of in vestment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Investing in innovative food systems solutions in challenging contexts

Humanitarian agencies are in a race against time to save lives in contexts where economies have collapsed as hunger is aggravated by conflicts and extreme weather, among other factors. Take Nigeria, for example. Across the country lives and livelihoods are being shattered by conflict and climate shocks – once a breadbasket, the northern regions now rely heavily on humanitarian food assistance. The numbers speak for themselves: 30.6 million people are food insecure – 10 million people in three northern states; 17 million children are malnourished – the highest number in Africa, second highest globally after India. Farmers are cut off from their fields. Traders struggle to move goods through dangerous or impassable roads. Millions are displaced. And yet amid this fragility pockets of resilience are emerging in areas where conflict has subsided such that some farmers can return to their farms.

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, September 2025

Highlights
Retail prices of maize were relatively stable in September.
National price stability concealed significant market-level variations in maize prices.
Imports continued dominating cross-border trade in maize.

Graduating from Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme: What have we learned?

Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) – one of the largest social protection programs in Africa – has improved food security and strengthened recovery from shocks, yet it has achieved limited progress in raising incomes or diversifying livelihoods. In response, policymakers have layered graduation models onto the PSNP to promote sustainable self-reliance. This note synthesizes evaluation evidence from NGO- and government-led initiatives. NGO-led intensive, high-cost models increased assets and incomes in the short to medium term but rarely enabled households to exit the program. NGO-led lighter-touch approaches improved resilience but delivered minimal gains in overall well-being. Government-led efforts have faced persistent delivery challenges, including overstretched systems, weak credit access, and limited market linkages. Broader structural constraints, such as shrinking landholdings, scarce nonfarm opportunities, and recurrent drought and other shocks, further undermine the promise of graduation programming in this context. The review highlights six policy lessons on design, financing, and integration with broader development strategies to shape more effective approaches going forward.

Investing in innovative food systems solutions in challenging contexts: A food supply chain mapping and analysis

Humanitarian agencies are in a race against time to save lives in contexts where economies have collapsed as hunger is aggravated by conflicts and extreme weather, among other factors. Take Nigeria, for example. Across the country lives and livelihoods are being shattered by conflict and climate shocks – once a breadbasket, the northern regions now rely heavily on humanitarian food assistance. The numbers speak for themselves: 30.6 million people are food insecure – 10 million people in three northern states; 17 million children are malnourished – the highest number in Africa, second highest globally after India. Farmers are cut off from their fields. Traders struggle to move goods through dangerous or impassable roads. Millions are displaced. And yet amid this fragility pockets of resilience are emerging in areas where conflict has subsided such that some farmers can return to their farms.

Senegal assessment [of the PEDAL project]

For nearly three decades, Senegal has been recognized as a regional leader in advancing nutrition, reducing under-five stunting from 34 percent in 1992 to 19 percent in 2014 (Kampman et al. 2017), and further to 15.1 percent by 2023 (ANSD and ICF 2024). This progress has been underpinned by a multi-sectoral and decentralized approach, with local governments playing an increasingly central role in policy implementation. Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) has been a cornerstone of this agenda, with Senegal—alongside Nigeria—pioneering fortification standards in the 2000s for edible oil, wheat flour, and salt, and subsequently institutionalizing the approach through the 2006 Strategic Plan for the Fortification of Foods and two successive national fortification strategies, the most recent of which was launched in May 2025. Yet despite these achievements, Senegal now faces mounting fiscal pressures, shifting donor priori-ties, and persistent micronutrient challenges, all of which threaten to slow or reverse momentum around LSFF.

Are poor people conditionally cooperative? Contrasting evidence from a field-adapted contributions game

We study conditional cooperation using a field-adapted conditional contributions game in rural Mozambique, eliciting community members’ willingness to contribute to a new public program conditional on how many others contribute. While past studies suggest most people are conditional cooperators (contributing more as others do), most of our sample (57%) are undefined by standard classifications. Instead, our sample's most common types are largely absent from the literature: counter conditional cooperators (contributing less as others do) and v-shaped cooperators, both for monetary donations (30% and 19%) and volunteering (35% and 12%). Our findings motivate future research in both non-laboratory and low-income settings.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: August 2025

This report presents an overview of trends in prices, availability, and quality of key commodities, while also capturing traders’ perceptions of supply, demand, and market conditions in Sudan between February and August 2025.

Impact of armed conflict on crop production in greater Khartoum, Sudan

Since April 2023, Sudan has been engulfed in a violent conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, resulting in widespread displacement, destruction of infrastructure, and the collapse of essential services. As with agricultural production in rural communities across Sudan, urban and peri-urban farming systems in Greater Khartoum, the area around the capital city, have also been harmed by the conflict.

An integrated assessment of the impact of conflict on crop production in Greater Khartoum was conducted using recent satellite imagery from 2024/25 winter season (October 2024 to March 2025), along with household-level data from the 2024 IFPRI Smallholder Farmers Survey covering the 2023/24 winter season (October 2023 to March 2024). Key findings from the assessment include:
Decline in cropping activities: Analysis of satellite imagery showed clear evidence of a decline in cropping activities between December 2022 and December 2024. Land use analysis showed a 22 percent reduction in total cultivated area over this period. Notably, land under center-pivot irrigation declined by 87 percent. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis showed a 36 percent decline in vegetated land, indicating both reduced cultivation and plant cover.
Widespread disruption to farming: Thirty-six percent of the farmers surveyed in Khartoum state reported not cultivating any crops in the 2023/24 winter season primarily because of conflict-related challenges that they could not overcome. Of those that did farm, over three-quarters reported that the conflict had disrupted their agricultural activities.

Shifts in crop selection and agricultural input use: Vegetables and fruits are now the most commonly grown crops, followed by fodder and beans. Less than one-quarter of farmers now use improved seeds, largely due to conflict-related input shortages. However, despite the conflict, access to fertilizer markets has been maintained— 87 percent of farmers reported that they continue to use fertilizer.
Localized resilience: Some areas of Greater Khartoum, particularly Karari locality, have maintained relatively high levels of cultivation, reflecting localized resilience and reasonable safety and access to agricultural landholdings.

By combining spatial and socioeconomic data, the study highlights the complex and multidimensional nature of agricultural disruption in conflict-affected areas, like Greater Khartoum. Several policy responses and other actions needed for recovery and to strengthen the resilience of affected farmers are suggested by the study findings:
Promote resilient and inclusive farming systems and agricultural value chains.
Restore agricultural infrastructure and input supply chains.
Improve farmer mobility and market access.
Provide emergency assistance and recovery packages to farmers.
Strengthen agricultural monitoring systems.

Simulated impact of vitamin A-fortified sugar on dietary adequacy and association of usual sugar intake with plasma and breast milk retinol among lactating Zambian women

In Zambia, mandatory sugar fortification with vitamin A (VA) has been implemented, but its impact on VA inadequacy and status has yet to be assessed. This study evaluated the contribution of VA-fortified sugar to dietary VA adequacy and the relationship between dietary intakes and VA status in 243 lactating women, based on 24-h dietary recalls in Mkushi, Zambia. We estimated usual intake distributions and the prevalence of VA adequacy using the National Cancer Institute (NCI) method across five scenarios: without sugar fortification; with fortification at 3.1 or 8.8 mg/kg (median levels previously measured in Mkushi); at 10 mg/kg (the minimum legal requirement at the household level), and at 15 mg/kg (the minimum legal requirement at the factory level). We applied the regression calibration method to examine associations of usual intake of sugar and dietary VA with plasma and breast milk retinol concentrations. Without fortified sugar, the estimated prevalence of dietary VA inadequacy was 83% (standard error [SE]: 6). Projected reductions in VA inadequacy were 7 (SE: 6), 24 (SE: 14), 30 (SE: 15) and 47 (SE: 18) percentage points for sugar fortification at 3.1, 8.8, 10 and 15 mg/kg, respectively. Usual sugar intake was not significantly associated with plasma or breast milk retinol concentrations. The potential impacts of sugar fortification on VA intakes are limited if the programme is not implemented as planned. Even if the target fortification levels are achieved (10 mg/kg), sugar fortification alone is unlikely to eliminate dietary VA

Heavy on plans, light on delivery: The structural failures of Ethiopia's nutrition policies

Ethiopia's development ambitions rest on the foundation of a healthy population, yet its nutrition sector remains stalled despite decades of planning and investment. Nearly 38% of children under five are stunted, and food insecurity continues to affect millions. Landmark initiatives like the National Food and Nutrition Policy and the Seqota Declaration demonstrate strong political will—but implementation and scale-up falters due to entrenched structural failures. At the core of this breakdown is an overstretched and under-resourced frontline workforce. Health Extension Workers, while committed, are burdened with wide-ranging responsibilities, and lack the specialized training needed for effective nutrition service delivery. As a result, national strategies often collapse at the community level, where change is most urgently needed. This is further compounded by fragmented coordination. Despite the multisectoral nature of malnutrition—spanning health, agriculture, education, and social protection—ministries and partners frequently work in silos, sending conflicting messages to the same households. Meanwhile, valuable research and data remain disconnected from policy and program implementation, limiting the system's responsiveness and accountability. The path forward requires more than incremental fixes. Ethiopia needs specialized community nutrition workers to bridge the last-mile gap, a high-level coordination mechanism to align sectoral actions, and agile policies grounded in real-time evidence. Without these structural reforms, the burden of malnutrition will continue to erode the country's human capital and economic potential. This is not just a health crisis—it is a critical bottleneck to national progress. The time for structural transformation is now.

Sidama Coffee Agronomy Program: Impact report

Coffee is Ethiopia’s most important export crop, and it constitutes an important source of livelihood for an estimated 15 million people across the value chain, most of whom are poor smallholder farmers. While coffee production and exports generally increased over the last decade or so, several constraints are still keeping the sector from attaining its full potential. Low-yielding, aged coffee trees and poor farm management and agronomic practices are among the main constraints. Between 2019 and 2022, TechnoServe (TNS)—in collaboration with Max und Ingeburg Herz Stiftung/HereWeGrow (HWG)— implemented a 25-month coffee agronomy training program in the Sidama region of Ethiopia that comprised a package of interventions to address these constraints and increase smallholders’ coffee productivity and income. In particular, the program covered five woredas/districts (Aleta Chuko, Dale, Bona Zuria, Hawela, Shebedino) and reached 47,759 farm households in two cohorts (2019 and 2020).

Addressing data deficiency in CAADP’s poverty reduction commitment

This policy brief examines Africa’s data reporting performance on the commitment to halve poverty under the fourth CAADP Biennial Review (BR) of the Malabo Declaration. Data availability is central to tracking progress, yet approximately 40 percent of the required data was missing at the continental level, with significant disparities across regions, indicators, and countries. Central Africa exhibited the highest rate of missing data, while Western Africa reported the lowest and achieved the highest BR scores. The analysis reveals a strong negative correlation between data missing rates and BR performance scores, indicating that improved reporting can enhance the visibility of positive policy outcomes. However, high-quality data alone is not sufficient—outcomes also depend on effective policy design and implementation. The review process uncovered persistent data quality challenges, particularly the presence of extreme outlier values that undermine the reliability and comparability of reported results. These anomalies—such as implausible agricultural growth rates or disproportionate reductions in poverty—highlight weaknesses in data validation and signal a need for strengthened national data governance. The brief recommends institutionalizing the BR process, creating Kampala commitment specific data clusters, and investing in capacity building to improve data consistency and utilization. Strengthening national data systems is essential to achieving the poverty reduction goals of the Kampala Declaration.

Rural income diversification in Ethiopia: Drivers and welfare impact

Diversification of rural households into the nonfarm economy is a key driver of economic growth and structural transformation in countries where agriculture remains the primary source of livelihood. This study examines trends and patterns of income diversification, its determinants, and its association with household welfare in rural Ethiopia. Our analysis indicates that rural households in Ethiopia continued to rely primarily on farming, with only marginal diversification of income sources during 2012–2019, despite the broader context of rapid economic growth. Crop production remains the main source of income, followed by livestock, while nonfarm activities contribute 17–24% of total household income. Factor endowments and local conditions, including rainfall, play a crucial role in shaping diversification decisions. In particular, the 2015–16 drought appears to have pushed households to increase engagement in nonfarm income-generating activities. Importantly, income diversification is associated with higher household consumption, improved dietary diversity, and better housing quality, highlighting the potential of expanding the rural nonfarm economy to enhance household welfare.

Beyond the bids: Lessons from farmers' reflections on Vickrey auctions of sweetpotato vines in Rwanda

Context
The use of high-quality seed can significantly enhance nutrition, food security, poverty alleviation, and climate change adaptation in rural farming communities. Economic valuation methods can be used to assess farmers' demand for such seed. However, the reproductive biology of seed and the social and economic institutions surrounding their production and exchange vary widely across crops and regions.

Objective
It is important to understand how such contextual factors relate to the assumptions that underly economic valuation methods. In this paper, we qualitatively evaluated an experimental Vickery auction conducted in Rwanda which aimed to identify farmers demand for disease-free vines of orange-fleshed sweet potato rich in Vitamin A.

Method
Data were gathered through observations of and in-depth interviews with participating farmers, focusing on their experiences, strategies, and motivations during the auction. We examined farmers' reflections on the experimental auctions—rather than the auction results themselves—to understand context-specificity and methodological replicability.

Results and conclusion
Our findings reveal that farmers assigned value to the vines in diverse ways, shaped by personal experience, social norms, and local exchange practices—often diverging from the assumptions of auction theory. These dynamics raise concerns about the validity and reliability of the auction outcomes.

Significance
Although auctions are an increasingly popular tool to evaluate the value of seeds and traits in smallholder farming systems, and although considerable effort has been put into examining mechanisms leading to product overestimation and underestimation in auction settings, this study offers a novel qualitative perspective that uncovers several reasons that explain deviations in the context of an experimental Vickrey auction for sweetpotato vines in rural Rwanda. Our findings highlight the challenges of using auction-based methods in capturing demand when used to value goods that are reproductive, socially embedded, and exchanged outside formal markets.

Looks matter? Field performance and farmers' preferences for drought-tolerant maize in Kenya

Context
To help farmers adapt to climate change, breeding programs have developed drought-tolerant (DT) maize varieties, but varietal turnover among smallholder farmers is slow. One possible reason for low adoption is that DT varieties produce higher yields than older hybrid maize varieties but are not visibly more drought tolerant, especially if morphology is a factor in farmers' varietal choice.

Objectives
Motivated by this conjecture, our first objective is to compare the drought tolerance of a new hybrid DT maize variety and older varieties under farmer-managed conditions in terms of both morphology and yields. Our second objective is to analyze whether increasing farmers' exposure to this variety increases their awareness of its DT traits and subsequent adoption.

Methods
We leverage a project that provided seed trial packs of a new DT maize variety to randomly selected farmers in seven counties in Kenya with varying rainfall conditions. Picture-based crop monitoring across two seasons yielded a novel panel dataset of 18,225 smartphone images labeled for drought damage, and, for a subsample of fields, yields. We use this dataset to compare the performance of promoted and commonly grown varieties. We then use exogenous variation in receiving trial packs to analyze how providing trial packs affects varietal preferences and adoption.

Results and conclusion
The promoted variety produces higher yields than other varieties. Under good conditions, it also appears visibly less damaged during the flowering stage, but morphological differences disappear under more severe moisture stress, and once the crop reaches maturity. Consistent with these observations, treatment farmers do not perceive this variety to be more drought tolerant than other varieties and are more likely to plant the promoted variety only when receiving a free trial pack.

Significance
It could be that limited visibility of DT traits hinders sustained adoption. Increasing adoption of DT varieties to enhance climate change adaptation in drought-prone regions may require facilitating prolonged learning and experimentation opportunities, increasing awareness of how DT traits manifest themselves in terms of yields and morphology under varying rainfall conditions, and, costs permitting, selecting for visible DT traits in plant breeding.

Miracle seeds: Biased expectations, complementary input use, and the dynamics of smallholder technology adoption

To fully benefit from new agricultural technologies like improved seed varieties, significant investment in complementary inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides, and practices such as systematic planting, irrigation, and weeding are also required. Farmers may fail to recognize the importance of these complements, leading to disappointing crop yields and outputs and, eventually, dis-adoption of the improved variety. Using a field experiment, we test an information intervention among smallholder maize farmers in eastern Uganda that points out these complementarities. We find that farmers adopt less after they have been sensitized about the need to use complementary inputs to unlock the adoption premium. We rationalize this finding with a simple theoretical model where farmers have mis-specified mental models of the technology production function and conclude that most farmers in our sample do indeed believe in miracle seeds.

Economy-wide implications of increasing school enrolment in Sub-Saharan Africa

The high number of out-of-school youth in developing countries constitutes a pressing challenge with profound implications for attaining sustainable development. Sudan, for example, has the fifth-highest number globally while struggling with sluggish economic growth and high youth unemployment. In this study, we assess the potential economy-wide implications of options to enhance enrolment among youth by lowering private household spending on education and training services, taking Sudan as a case study. Cost reduction is considered for: a) primary education, b) secondary education, c) primary and secondary education, and d) all formal educational cycles and vocational training. We developed a recursive-dynamic single-country Computable General Equilibrium (STAGE-Edu) model that captures vocational training, secondary education by type (vocational and non-vocational), and education and training choices at different levels, with broad coverage of existing bridges between education and training. STAGE-Edu also establishes endogenous and consistent linkages between the educational and training system and the skill levels of the labour force through six-stage nested production functions. The findings suggest that cost reduction in primary education significantly reduces the number of out-of-school children and enhances long-term economic growth. However, it increases dropouts from post-primary education and vocational training. In contrast, cost reduction for both primary and secondary education improves enrolment in the tertiary education cycle and promotes the overall skill composition. Funding such cost reductions from foreign development aid and grants yields higher economic benefits than increasing domestic taxes.

JEL Classification: C68; H52; I25; O55

Zinc distribution in structural components of high kernel‑zinc maize and its retention after milling

High kernel‑zinc maize (HKZM) has the potential to contribute to addressing zinc deficiency in regions with high maize consumption, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, milling HKZM may lead to loss of zinc when removing the pericarp and embryo. This study evaluated the zinc distribution in kernel components of HKZM maize grown in different environments, and examined how milling affected its zinc concentration. The zinc concentration in HKZM lines was 27.0–30.7 μg g−1 while in conventional maize it was 19.5–22.6 μg g−1. Zinc in maize endosperm represented 20.5 to 28.2 % of the total kernel zinc while that in the embryo represented 68.1 to 75.7 %. HKZM retained 43 % of its kernel zinc after milling, resulting in flour with 5 μg g−1 higher zinc concentration compared to regular maize flour. Environmental factors had a significant effect on kernel zinc concentrations. Maize grain from commercial mills had 21 μg g−1 zinc, with zinc losses of 22 % to 65 % during milling, resulting in flours with 6–10 μg g−1 of zinc. While HKZM shows promise in alleviating zinc deficiency, its anticipated impact may be limited in regions where refined maize is frequently used for making foods. The development of maize varieties with higher zinc concentration in the endosperm, along with promoting increased consumption of less refined maize products can boost zinc intake for deficient populations.

Policy and regulation in seed sector development for vegetatively propagated crops: Insights from Kenya, Nigeria, and Vietnam

Context
In many low- and middle-income countries, smallholder farmers cultivating vegetatively propagated crops (VPCs) have limited access to quality planting material. This constraint can limit both the yield and returns to VPC cultivation. Yet policy and regulations designed to strengthen access to quality VPC planting materials and scale innovative programs that deliver these materials have been relatively unsuccessful to date. Part of the problem lies the unique biological and economic characteristics of vegetative propagation and its distinctness from cereal crops that dominate narratives on seed sector reforms and the resulting policy and regulatory regimes.
Objective
The study analyzes both theory and evidence on existing and alternative models of regulation that may incentivize cost-effective multiplication and distribution in VPC seed systems and markets.
Methods
The study draws on case studies of policy and practice related to quality assurance regulations in four crop-country combinations: cassava in Nigeria and Vietnam, and potato in Kenya and Vietnam. The case studies rely on qualitative analysis that was conducted using a combination of key informant interviews, focus group discussions, analysis of regulatory documents, and analysis of publicly available secondary data.
Results and conclusions
The study describes five strategies for regulating VPC seed systems in our four crop-country combinations, each with its own generalizable costs and benefits. The application (or marginalization) of these strategies is often shaped by fluid coalitions of actors with competing interests and framing narratives, and driven by organizational innovations, technological opportunities, trade relationships, and crises that are crop- and country-specific.
Significance
These findings suggest that regulations designed around strict, centralized quality control systems tend to limit market size, while more localized production systems are limited by both capacity and reach. They also suggest the need for alternatives that balance a permissive regulatory regime with decentralized production systems, grassroots capacity development, market surveillance, and systems that integrate multiple approaches to quality assurance. A detailed set of policy recommendations follows from these findings that inform ongoing country efforts to revise VPC seed sector policies and regulations—reforms that are being pursued not only in the crop-country case studies highlighted here, but also in other countries in both Africa and Asia.

Senegal at a crossroads: Prioritizing large-scale food fortification under financial uncertainty

Senegal long has been committed to large-scale food fortification (LSFF), especially for salt, edible oil, and wheat flour, bolstered by a set of multi-sectoral nutrition strategies and institutional coordinating mechanisms. Yet, due to recent macroeconomic pressures and reductions in donor funding, the country is at a crossroads, revealing key gaps in the sustainability of its current LSFF program even as new vehicles, such as rice and bouillon, are emerging on the fortification policy agenda. Based on interviews with over two dozen public, private, and civil society sector actors, we utilize the Political Economy Diagnostic of Large Scale Food Fortification (PEDAL) to highlight strengths of the Senegalese LSFF program and weaknesses that need to be prioritized. Among the latter include the stalled financing for the national fortification alliance, known as COSFAM, insufficient testing materials and laboratories, and rising costs of premix and raw materials. Several innovations were promoted by respondents to address some of these challenges, including either the decentralization or regionalization of laboratory capabilities, a central buying center for premixes, and online data platforms to track compliance. By reflecting on Senegal’s long experience and current challenges with scaling its fortification efforts, the analysis provides useful insights to countries with more nascent fortification programs about the prerequisites for ensuring LSFF sustainability.

Africa’s youth and the future of food: IFPRI’s key takeaways from AFS forum 2025

Over 60% of Africa’s people are under 25. By 2035, more young Africans will join the workforce each year than in the rest of the world combined, underscoring the urgency of the 2025 African Food Systems Forum (AFS Forum) theme: “Africa’s Youth: Leading Collaboration, Innovation, and Implementation of Agri-Food Systems Transformation.”

The spotlight on youth was clear from the outset. Presidents Bassirou Diomaye Faye of Senegal and Paul Kagame of Rwanda engaged in substantive dialogue with young agrifood entrepreneurs from across the Continent. Their energy was sustained through to a jubilant award ceremony celebrating the “Go-Gettaz” along with other prizes honoring young Africans.

2024 Social Accounting Matrix for Egypt

The 2024 Egypt Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Sierra Leone

The 2023 Sierra Leone Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Analysis of antibiotic use, biosecurity and mortality in semi-intensive broiler farms in Kenya

The indiscriminate use of antibiotics in food-producing animals contributes to antimicrobial resistance (AMR), posing a global threat. Understanding the factors associated with antibiotic use is critical to combat resistance while maintaining animal health. This study examined antibiotic use practices, mortality rates, biosecurity levels, as well as the associations between biosecurity and antibiotic use, and between biosecurity and mortality, in semi-intensive broiler farms in Kenya.

The study was conducted in 129 semi-intensive farms with total flock sizes between 200 and 2000 birds across three peri-urban counties in Kenya. Data were collected prospectively over one production cycle, with farms visited biweekly using questionnaires and a drug bin approach. Biosecurity levels were assessed by a panel of experts who weighted scores for various external and internal biosecurity subcategories. Directed acyclic graphs (DAG) described potential relationships between explanatory variables, confounders and outcome. Logistic regression analysis was conducted with antibiotic use as the outcome variable. Explanatory variables with P < 0.25 in the univariable logistic regression were included in the multivariable regression. Similarly, linear regression was conducted using mortality as the outcome. Overall, 72% of farms used antibiotics, primarily for prophylaxis (66%), with erythromycin and oxytetracycline being the most commonly used antibiotics. The median mortality rate across the production cycle was 6%. There was no significant difference in mortality between farms using antibiotics and those not using antibiotics. Biosecurity practices were low, with a median biosecurity score of 14.3/67.9. Univariable screening suggested potential associations between antibiotic use and vaccination of day-old chicks, flock size, cleaning protocol for chicken drinkers, resting period between batches, feed store cleaning, water source, distance from neighbouring farms, and age. However, these were not significant in multivariable logistic regression. Linear regression showed an association between mortality and biosecurity measures, specifically disease management and visitor entry regulation. This study highlights widespread antibiotic use, low biosecurity implementation, and variability in mortality rates in the farms surveyed. There is a gap in farmers’ implementation of effective biosecurity measures and understanding of prudent antibiotic use. An urgent need exists to develop comprehensive data collection methodologies, education, and interventions to promote responsible antibiotic stewardship and cost-effective biosecurity practices among poultry farmers in Kenya.

Women's empowerment in Ghana's agriculture sector: Insights from the Women's Empowerment in Agriculture Index

Key messages
• Gender disparities in agriculture persist in Ghana, particularly in land ownership, credit access, and decision-making power, limiting women’s productivity and contribution to food security.
• The Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) has been instrumental in revealing these gender gaps in northern Ghana, but similar data are lacking for other regions, hindering national-level policy responsiveness.
• Targeted interventions, such as securing land rights for women, improving access to financial services, and promoting participation in farmer-based organizations, are critical to advancing women’s empowerment and achieving gender-equitable agricultural development.

Deploying high-frequency market data to estimate the cost of recommended diets: Recent trends in Rwanda

This study estimates the cost and affordability of recommended diets in Rwanda from April 2019 to December 2024 using high-frequency market price data. By deploying standardised methods for healthy diet costs to eSoko data (www.esoko.gov.rw), and local food based dietary guidelines, we calculate the monthly cost of recommended diets at the district level. Key findings reveal significant dietary cost fluctuations, with nominal costs increasing 67% between June 2022 and October 2023, coinciding directly with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The research also identifies affordability challenges; by mid-2023, and again in late 2024, where up to 70% of wage earners could not afford a recommended diet. Spatial variations were also evident, with diet costs differing between rural and urban areas, and across districts bordering different countries, with the highest dietary costs observed along the Democratic Republic of Congo border and the least expensive along the border of Tanzania. Utilizing Rwanda's eSoko data platform, the study demonstrates the value of high-frequency, spatially explicit data for understanding food system dynamics. The findings call for policy actions to consider dietary affordability, particularly for low-income groups, and suggest that Rwanda's data collection approach could serve as a benchmark for other countries.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: July 2025

This report analyzes market dynamics in Sudan between February and July 2025, focusing on prices, availability, quality, fuel, exchange rates, and traders’ perceptions of supply, demand, profits, and market conditions.

Between February and July 2025, Sudan’s markets showed mixed trends and sharp regional disparities. Cereal prices were mostly stable: wheat held steady with a short rise in early July, sorghum increased in June then stabilized, millet fluctuated slightly, and wheat flour fell in early July before rising sharply. Wheat and wheat flour availability improved, while sorghum and millet availability declined marginally.

Gender attitudes in agriculture and positivity bias: A survey experiment in four countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Extensive prior research has demonstrated that reducing gender discrimination enhances women’s empowerment, promotes more inclusive livelihoods, increases agricultural productivity, and improves other development outcomes. This study aims to contribute to documenting and informing the measurement of gender attitudes that relate directly to reaching, benefiting, and empowering women through agricultural innovations. By analyzing data from 8,051 survey respondents across study sites in Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Rwanda, our findings emphasize both commonalities and differences in gender attitudes across different contexts. Furthermore, by including a survey-based experiment during data collection, we assess whether gender-attitude statements vary depending on whether they are presented in a positive frame (focusing on equality) or in a negative frame (focusing on inequality). On average, rural women and men respondents across all countries supported more than half of the gender-equality statements. Some gender-inequality attitudes persisted across the four countries but varied in magnitude and by location, age group, and specific statement or theme. Framing matters: respondents exposed to a positive framing supported 16 percent more gender-equality statements than those exposed to a negative framing. The study highlights two main implications. First, the findings indicate the importance of considering both restrictive
attitudes and those that reflect gender-equality opportunities as being in the vanguard. Accordingly, gender-focused interventions should adopt strategies that challenge normative
views of women as supporting rather than leading actors in agriculture and economic activities. Second, gender-attitude measures do not perfectly align with country-level gender-equality
indicators or with empowerment at the intrahousehold level. They therefore capture a distinct dimension and merit their own indicators.

Digital literacy training to promote diffusion of digital agricultural tools to smallholder farmers: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Egypt

Despite growing enthusiasm about the potential of digital innovations to transform agrifood systems, adoption among smallholder farmers in Africa remains low and heterogeneous. While the proliferation of digital tools targeting smallholder farmers is encouraging, the vast majority remain at pilot stages, facing important demand and supply-side barriers to adoption. This paper evaluates alternative digital literacy interventions designed to address these demand-side barriers. Following a Training of Trainers (TOT) model, we designed and implemented a randomized control trial to test three variants of digital literacy training: standard classroom-based digital literacy training (T1), digital training complemented (preceded) by a video-based play (T2), digital training complemented (preceded) by a live community play (T3), and a control group (C). We find that all variants of digital training significantly increased the uptake and utilization of digital tools by smallholder farmers. Specifically, the standard digital training alone increased uptake by 20 percentage points and utilization by 26 percentage points. The interventions also significantly enhanced farmer trust in digital tools by 8–13 percentage points. Surprisingly, for some outcomes, the digital literacy training alone outperformed the combined approaches that incorporated edutainment nudges. We explore possible explanations, including group size effects and social influence dynamics during the plays. We also document heterogeneity in the impact of these interventions across farmers’ gender and age. Our findings offer insights for designing cost effective and scalable interventions to build digital capabilities and trust among smallholder farmers.

Malawi can end hunger after the 2025 elections if bold steps are taken to transform food systems

Malawi has a history of peaceful democratic transitions. Since the advent of multiparty politics in 1994, power has regularly shifted between rival parties. Citizens and institutions have upheld electoral democratic norms, from respecting term limits to rerunning elections after irregularities.

Yet, democratic elections haven’t translated into economic prosperity, nor into strong economic institutions. Malawi remains the world’s poorest conflict-free nation. At the last count in 2019, 70% of Malawians lived below the international poverty line of US$2.15 per day. More than half of Malawi’s residents are deprived in many, overlapping ways.

Aligning AfCFTA and CAADP for Africa’s agrifood systems future

Key messages
AfCFTA and CAADP are Africa’s twin engines for structural transformation, but their success depends on deliberate alignment. While AfCFTA drives regional integration through trade liberalization, CAADP focuses on building resilient, inclusive, and sustainable agrifood systems.
• There is strong strategic complementarity between the two frameworks, especially in goals related to competitiveness, private sector development, and integration of regional value chains. But alignment weakens at the level of implementation—risking policy incoherence and missed opportunities.
• Tensions between AfCFTA and CAADP implementation exist around tariff liberalization, domestic policy space, and sector readiness, with risks that liberalized trade could outpace capacity of fragile agriculture sectors to compete, adapt, and benefit.
• Food security, equity, and environmental resilience—central to CAADP—are recognized in AfCFTA objectives and justify certain exceptions yet remain only weakly embedded in its implementation protocols. • Institutional silos and fragmented infrastructure strategies could undermine coherence, with risks of trade and agriculture ministries, as well as regional and continental bodies, operating separately.
• Strategic coordination, sequencing, and governance reform are essential. Alignment of AfCFTA and CAADP is not automatic—it must be designed, negotiated, and sustained to deliver on Africa’s transformation promise.
• Bridging AfCFTA and CAADP is not a one-time alignment exercise but rather a strategic process of political, institutional, and analytical interaction that must be continuously revisited and actively managed if it is to deliver on the continent’s shared aspirations for prosperity, food security, and sustainability.

Trade, not aid? The emerging donor strategy and its implications for Africa’s agrifood systems

Key messages
1. The United States is shifting its development engagement in Africa from aid to trade, emphasizing commercial partnerships, private sector development, and export-oriented growth. This shift is not unique to the United States; similar trends are being seen in Europe, China, and Japan, reflecting a global swing toward trade-first or business development strategies.
2. If well aligned, this approach can reinforce African priorities as defined in the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) 2026–2035 Strategy, the Kampala Declaration, and national agricultural investment plans. Trade-first strategies map directly onto CAADP’s six strategic objectives, including agro-industrialization, food security, inclusivity, resilience, financing, and governance.
3. These strategies can also support implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, especially through investment in trade corridors, logistics, standards systems, and regulatory cooperation. However, there are risks of misalignment if initiatives prioritize donor or investor interests over inclusive transformation, public goods provision, and food systems resilience.
4. As articulated in discussions during the recent 4th International Conference on Financing for Development, consensus is building for Africa to move beyond aid and propel growth through private sector development.
5. African governments and partners must also go beyond coordination and seriously consider the institutional and political work required to steer this opportunity toward the public good. This consideration will require investing in regulatory capacity, protecting public goods, confronting corruption and capital flight, and ensuring that trade and investment flows are transparent, accountable, and inclusive. Without this, trade-first strategies risk reinforcing existing inequalities, undermining food systems resilience, and turn-ing agrifood transformation into an elite project.
6. Strategic statecraft—rooted in evidence, integrity, and public accountability—is essential to ensure that this shift delivers not just markets but also meaningful structural transformation through industrial policy.
7. The pivot to “trade, not aid” by global partners reflects a broader retreat from long-term development commitments. But it must also be recognized as a shift in priority from shared development outcomes to strategic self-interest, market capture, and influence.
8. Africa cannot be viewed as an open market to be carved up, claimed, or divided. African countries must insist on strategic alignment, mutual accountability, and respect for national development priorities—or risk having their food systems and economic futures being shaped by agendas that do not serve them.

Harnessing livestock for climate action and food security: A strategic opportunity for Africa and the Global South

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, August 2025

Highlights
Retail prices of maize increased on average by 16 percent in August.
Prices rose in all monitored markets across all regions of Malawi despite continued imports.
Depreciation of the Malawi kwacha (at market rates) against its Zambian and Mozambican counterparts dampened the mitigating effects of imports on maize price increases.

Displacement and development: Evidence from a graduation program for Somalia’s ultra-poor

While the population of internally displaced people around the world continues to grow, evidence around strategies to sustainably enhance livelihoods among IDPs remains extremely limited. We present findings from a randomized trial of an ultra-poor graduation program targeting IDPs in urban Baidoa, Somalia; the intervention pro-vided cash transfers, an asset transfer or technical training program, and facilitated savings groups. Our findings suggest that two years following program launch, the intervention has led to significant increases in consumption, assets, and savings; however, these effects seem to be driven almost exclusively by increased livestock production. An exploration of heterogeneous effect using generalized random forest methods further suggests that the positive effects of the treatment are dramatically larger for smaller households characterized by lower dependency ratios.

Food system institutional mapping and capacity assessment in Niger

Niger faces rampant food insecurity, malnutrition, and environmental degradation. The transformation of food systems to tackle such challenges hinges on the capacity and effectiveness of institutional frameworks. To analyze the status, challenges, and strengths of Niger’s food system, a mapping and capacity needs assessment was conducted at three levels—enabling environment, institutional, and individual. Based on the assessment, leadership concerns on strategic guidance were observed at the policy process level, with major issues such as the incidence of corruption, infrastructure constraints, and lack of reliable data availability. At the institutional level, lack of an interconnected network and mutual accountability, resource and funding constraints, and high staff turnover have adversely impacted overall institutional performance. Availability of reliable data evidence is limited or absent due to weak monitoring and evaluation systems and decentralized capacity, lack of sufficient local support, transparency issues in strategy development, and selection bias. At the individual level, there is a need to improve technical capacity on analytical thinking, quantitative and qualitative research tools, and the dissemination of communication, outreach, and information. Despite the climate change-related challenges in the country, there is less focus on environmental management, adaptation, and advanced technology implementation. The underrepresentation of key areas such as socio-cultural dynamics, governance, social protection, and cross sectoral collaboration indicates a potential lack of integration in policymaking and implementation. Overall, there is an urgent need to reallocate resources to enhance the focus on underrepresented yet critical food systems areas, enhance inter-ministerial and cross-sectoral collaboration to ensure a more integrated approach to food systems management, and incorporate social inclusion and equity considerations. Forward-looking strategies should be developed that anticipate and respond to emerging challenges such as demographic shifts, globalization effects, and technological changes.

Tourism for development: A SAM-multiplier study on sports tourism in Kenya

Tourism presents a significant, yet largely untapped, opportunity for Africa to accelerate economic development, create jobs, and foster inclusive growth. This case study for sports tourism in Kenya estimates that for every $1,000 spent by a sports tourist, a total of $3,600 is generated within the Kenyan economy, highlighting the sector's substantial linkages with other sectors, particularly the food system. By 2035, sports tourism could contribute an estimated $1.21 billion to $2.14 billion to Kenya's economy annually and support the creation of up to 237,000 new jobs. About half of these jobs are expected to benefit lower and middle-income households, supporting their livelihoods and poverty reduction. To fully realize these economic and social benefits, strategic policy interventions are crucial, including targeted investment in tourism infrastructure, marketing, and skill development; a
concerted effort to improve the overall business climate to incentivize private sector engagement; and enhanced inter-ministerial coordination between tourism, planning, agriculture and other key stakeholders. While this study focuses on economic impacts, realizing these benefits requires careful planning and sustainable practices to mitigate potential environmental and social challenges.

Women’s leadership in agrifood governance: Unpacking gender attitudes and framing effects among policymakers with evidence from India and Nigeria

Women’s leadership in policy processes and formal institutions is a powerful pathway to gender equality and women’s empowerment at scale, yet relatively little is known about how key decision-makers who influence access to these positions perceive women’s leadership and how those perceptions can shift. This paper draws on original survey data from 407 elites from 274 agrifood organizations in India and Nigeria to examine elite gender attitudes, their responsiveness to framing interventions, and how these attitudes relate to support for policies promoting gender equality. Specifically, we ask: how do elites in agrifood governance perceive women’s leadership, and how responsive are these perceptions to a targeted framing intervention? We find that elites are substantially more supportive of women’s leadership than the general public in the same countries, yet male elites in particular still express strong endorsement of the idea that men make better leaders. Over half of male elites in our sample in both countries agree that men make better political leaders. A randomized framing experiment embedded in the survey shows that men’s attitudes toward women’s leadership are significantly influenced by how women’s capabilities are framed. Messages emphasizing women’s equal rights and capabilities reduce male elites’ support for gender-unequal statements compared to frames that ask individuals to reject the idea of male superiority. Female elites’ attitudes are more supportive overall and unaffected by framing. These findings suggest that gender messaging strategies should center on positive, equality-based frames, and that elite attitudes are critical to scaling women’s leadership in agrifood governance.

Knowledge support for agrifood system transformation in Africa

Governance and policies for agrifood systems transformation in Africa

From fragmented gains to systemic transformation

Assessing institutional capacities to demand and use nutrition data for decision-making in Nigeria’s health sector: A mixed-methods study

Background
Using data for policy design, program implementation and accountability is a priority among nutrition stakeholders in Nigeria. However, the capacities of decision-makers to use data are not well-defined.

Objective
This study used mixed methods to assess the capacity of institutions within Nigeria’s health sector to demand and use data for decision-making on nutrition policies and programs.

Methods
A quantitative scale capturing organizational and individual factors related to the capacity to demand and use data was administered to 92 nutrition stakeholders in Nigeria across federal government (n = 33), state government (n = 21) and local government areas (LGAs) (n = 29) and development partner organizations (n = 9). We compared scores across sub-groups. Key informant interviews (KIIs) with a subset of the federal (n = 13), state (n = 17), LGA (n = 30), and development partner (n = 11) respondents complemented the quantitative scale and were analysed thematically.

Results
Mean institutional capacity to demand and use data was 78.6 out of 100 [95% confidence interval (CI) 75.9, 81.3]. The mean organizational capacity score was 51.4 out of 60 (95% CI 49.9, 52.9); individual capacity was 27.2 out of 40 (95% CI 25.7, 28.7). Development partners (mean 85.7; 95% CI 78.9, 92.4) had the highest score, followed by state-level respondents (mean 82.3; 95% CI 76.9, 87.6), but differences were not significant. Both quantitative and qualitative results showed recognition and support for nutrition data demand and use but weak organizational mechanisms to ensure data use. Accessing available nutrition data was a challenge, especially for administrative data. Quantitative and qualitative results identified infrastructural and technological resource barriers for government respondents, especially at the LGA level, but not for development partners. Skills to synthesize and use nutrition data were also a challenge across respondent groups.

Conclusions
Government and non-government stakeholders in Nigeria’s health sector recognize the importance of data for nutrition decision-making, but gaps remain in individual capacity, resources and data use processes. To strengthen data use for nutrition policy process, investments to address gaps are needed.

Preventing relapse from wasting: the role of sociodemographic, child feeding, and health care determinants and of wasting prevention interventions in Burkina Faso and Mali

Background
Relapse among children treated for wasting is a major concern. We estimated the frequency and determinants of relapse to wasting in two populations exposed to PROMIS, an integrated wasting prevention and screening program.
Methods
Using longitudinal data from PROMIS trials in Burkina Faso and Mali, we calculated the incidence rate and period prevalence of relapse to wasting within 6 months in children who had ≥1 wasting episode ending when they were ≥6 months old for which they were treated and recovered (NBurkina Faso=247; NMali=220). We used backward elimination to select a multivariable model of sociodemographic, nutrition- and health-related determinants of relapse. We also evaluated if prevention interventions (behavior change communication (BCC) and/or small quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS) were associated with relapse, adjusting for confounders and trial arm.
Results
Relapse incidence was 2.6 per child-year in Burkina Faso (N=291 episodes) and 1.6 per child-year in Mali (N=300 episodes). In both countries, being fed the recommended food frequency or iron-rich foods after recovering from wasting was associated with lower risk of relapse. In Mali, longer wasting episodes, lack of minimally diverse diet consumption, and several caregiver/household characteristics were associated with lower risk of relapse. In both countries, receipt of BCC after recovery from wasting was associated with lower risk of relapse (Incidence rate ratio [IRR]Burkina Faso = 0.51 [95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.30, 0.86]; IRRMali = 0.26 [95% CI = 0.11, 0.65]), as was receipt of SQ-LNS (IRRBurkina Faso = 0.33 [95% CI = 0.16, 0.70]; (IRRMali = 0.43 [95% CI = 0.19, 0.94]), after adjustments.
Conclusion
Children being discharged from wasting treatment are a well-defined vulnerable population who stand to benefit from targeted post-discharge preventive interventions. BCC that includes advice on optimal infant and young child feeding practices and SQ-LNS may help prevent wasting relapse in at-risk children.

Identification, characterization, and determinants of dietary patterns of low-income urban adults in Vietnam and Nigeria

Understanding dietary patterns and their determinants can steer efforts to food systems transformations required to provide sustainable healthy diets. Based on 24-h recall data and using latent class analysis, we characterized dietary patterns of adults from low-income neighborhoods in Hanoi, Vietnam and Ibadan, Nigeria (n = 385 and 344, age 18–49 years). We examined sociodemographic determinants and diet quality (diversity, non-communicable disease risk, and micronutrient adequacy) of these patterns. Three dietary patterns were identified in each country. Vietnamese patterns differed in sociodemographic characteristics and diet quality. Nigerian patterns differed in diet quality but not in sociodemographics. Understanding different consumer groups and the drivers of consumption helps to identify tailored interventions to diversify diets and improve diet quality.

How good are livestock statistics in Africa? Can nudging and direct counting improve the quality of livestock asset data?

Livestock statistics in most low- and middle-income countries rely on self-reported, survey-based measures. However, respondents may have various challenges to accurately report livestock ownership. This study introduces a novel set of survey and measurement experiments to improve livestock statistics in Africa. We introduce two innovations to conventional livestock data collection methods. First, we address some of the sources of potential underreporting in livestock assets by introducing an explicit nudge to a random subset of survey respondents. Second, we arrange for direct counting of livestock assets by enumerators and local livestock experts. We demonstrate that self-reported data on livestock ownership suffer from significant and systematic underreporting. While our nudge affects only the reporting behaviour of households with larger stocks of livestock, direct counting increases total livestock ownership by 39 percent and the reported number of cattle by 43 percent. These impacts are evident at both the extensive and intensive margins of livestock asset ownership, as well as considering the number and value of livestock assets owned. Such mismeasurement in self-reported livestock data can lead to underestimation of the contribution of the livestock sector to national economies. Furthermore, direct counting generates important spillover effects to livestock species not explicitly counted in the survey. We finally show that underreporting in self-reported livestock data is systematic and hence consequential for statistical inferences. Our findings underscore that survey designs that can address specific sources of bias in self-reported livestock data can meaningfully improve livestock asset measurement in Africa.

Private sector promotion of agricultural technologies: Experimental evidence from Nigeria

Private sector agricultural businesses are critical for scaling new and potentially environmentally-friendly technologies, though much attention has focused on public agricultural investment. Working with a private firm, we conduct an experiment testing the effectiveness of alternative marketing strategies for promoting the adoption of urea super granule fertilizer (USG) among rice farmers in Nigeria. We disentangle the effects of price discount vouchers and the firm’s standard marketing package. We find that the firm’s standard marketing increases the adoption of USG fertilizer by 24 percentage points while reducing prilled urea utilization by 17 percentage points. Discount vouchers increase adoption of USG by an additional eight percentage points, but are not profitable for the firm. Although the adoption of USG leads to substantial environmental benefits by reducing nitrogen loss, farmer rice yields did not increase. Thus, despite the potential public benefits, private incentives facing firms and farmers are insufficient to drive scaling after a one-year intervention.

Herder-related violence, labor allocation, and the gendered response of agricultural households

Violent conflict between nomadic herders and settled agricultural communities in Nigeria occurs as both groups clash over the use of land and natural resources, in part, due to a changing climate. We generate theory and evidence to study the labor responses of individuals within agricultural households to herder-related violence and consider a “shadow of violence” mechanism, whereby previous exposure to a violent event alters labor responses to a recent event. Using panel data from 2010 through 2019, we highlight how exposure to violence can lead to differing responses in the planting or harvest seasons and among men or women. In the planting season, among both men and women living in households with no previous exposure to herder-related violence, we find that exposure (i.e., singular exposure) leads to a reduction in household enterprise work, but among households with previous exposure experience, exposure (i.e., repeated exposure) leads to an increase in household enterprise work. Meanwhile, repeated exposure to herder-related violence reduces agricultural work among men only. This leads total hours worked to decline in response to singular exposure and to increase in response to repeated exposure especially among women. In the harvest season, we find that singular exposure increases agricultural work among both men and women, but repeated exposure reduces agricultural work among men only.

JEL Codes: E26, E29, I31, Q12

The complex economics of a complete ban on child labor in the cobalt supply chain: The case of the DR Congo

Integrating Gender in Cost-Benefit Analysis of Climate Interventions: Training Guide for the Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture (RUFORUM)

This guide provides a practical framework for conducting Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) of Climate Information Services (CIS) within agricultural and rural development contexts. Developed under the AICCRA–RUFORUM partnership, it equips practitioners, researchers, and students with methods to quantify the economic and social value of CIS interventions. The manual introduces key CBA principles, data requirements, valuation techniques, and participatory approaches for assessing benefits to farmers and decision-makers. Through examples, exercises, and case illustrations, the guide promotes evidence-based planning and investment in climate services, strengthening institutional capacity for integrating economic analysis into climate-smart agriculture initiatives across Africa.

Typology of Kampala Declaration Activities

Key messages
1. The Kampala Declaration promotes multilevel coherence in agrifood systems investment
by aligning National Agricultural Investment Plans (NAIPs) and Regional Agricultural
Investment Plans (RAIPs) across Africa.
2. The green–yellow–blue typology employed in this brief is a critical innovation that
helps classify and harmonize activities by their governance level—national (blue), regional/
REC (green), and continental/multi-REC (yellow).
3. A majority of activities (132) identified in the CAADP Strategy and Action Plan
2026–2035 are multilevel (green + yellow + blue), indicating broad intent for integrated
implementation, but also emphasizing the need for strong coordination among all
governance tiers.
4. Blue-only activities (74) dominate, revealing a tendency toward national responsibility,
which still needs to be strategically aligned with REC and African Union (AU) initiatives.
5. Continental leadership remains weak, with few AU-led (yellow-only) initiatives, suggesting
a policy gap in pan-African coordination and oversight—particularly in inclusivity,
financing, and resilience.
6. Governance and trade-related interventions show the highest levels of harmonization,
making them potential models for other domains such as food security, inclusivity,
and climate resilience.
7. Inclusivity and resilience are under-prioritized at the regional and continental levels,
requiring policy reframing that treats them as shared public goods rather than local
concerns.
8. RECs are pivotal to the successful implementation of CAADP Agenda but are under-
resourced, requiring enhanced mandates, planning tools, and inter-REC collaboration
to execute cross-border and multicountry initiatives effectively.
9. Successful implementation hinges on institutional reforms, sustained political will,
and capacity building, ensuring the Declaration translates into real, coherent, and transformative
action across Africa’s agrifood systems.
CAADP KAMPALA DECLARATION POLICY NOTE 3
AUGUST

Zambia: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Zambia’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) traders and processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Expansion in extension and advisory services for livestock, rural roads, farmers credit, and seed systems also rank high. How ever, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Addressing the double burden of malnutrition in Egypt: Report on a stakeholder workshop on key challenges, policy solutions, and research opportunities

Key messages
Parliamentarians, researchers, and development practitioners shared perspectives on the double burden of malnutrition in Egypt in roundtable discussions.
Infrastructure gaps and policy and research strategy fragmentation are highlighted as challenges to accessibility of healthy food.
Aggressive ads/media environment and inefficient nutrition education programs are regarded as negatively impacting consumer behavior.
Economic factors are widely identified as a major driver of malnutrition.
Recommended solutions include raising nutrition literacy, transitioning from food subsidies to vouchers, improving nutrition services infrastructure, taxing unhealthy foods, and fortifying staple foods.
Participants called for continued dialogue between researchers and policymakers.

Leveraging project insights to strengthen WEAI for climate research

Key messages
• Measuring women’s empowerment in the context of climate change, resilience, and adaptation requires a flexible climate module—not a rigid, universal set of indicators.
• Collective agency, community involvement, and social networks are critical to climate resilience. The project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI)
should expand its climate module to better capture these community dynamics and collective actions.
• Integrating qualitative methods strengthens pro-WEAI’s effectiveness and ensures the tool is tailored to local contexts, which is essential for collecting meaningful and holistic data.

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, July 2025

Highlights
Retail prices of maize increased on average by 13 percent in July.
Prices rose in all monitored markets across all regions of Malawi despite continued imports.
Prices rose most steeply in the Southern region, increasing interregional differences.

The famines in Gaza and other conflict areas are a moral failure

As scientists and members of the Standing Together for Nutrition Consortium (ST4N) who have been Standing Together For Nutrition during recent crises, we use evidence of the impact of crises on nutrition to advocate for the people most affected. Now, in the face of the world's indifference, we are compelled to speak out about the horrifying human-made famine unfolding in Gaza and other conflict areas, including Sudan, South Sudan, and Yemen. Widespread starvation is deliberately used as a weapon of war,10 at a scale that we never thought possible. It is a moral failure that in 2025 more than 1·2 million people are living in Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) phase 5 (catastrophe) famine conditions—the most extreme food insecurity level according to the gold-standard IPC. These famines are not only claiming lives today, but they are also inflicting irreversible intergenerational trauma and damage.

Rural credit, food security, and resilience: An empirical evaluation from Kenya

In this paper, we examine the role of credit in enhancing rural households’ food security and resilience. In so doing, we consider resilience as a higher order capacity outcome, different from traditional development outcomes associated with households’ or individuals’ welfare. We evaluate the effectiveness of two types of agricultural production credit products, one a traditional credit and one that is linked to rainfall index insurance to protect borrowers against the adverse effects of drought. Based on a randomized controlled trial conducted in Machakos county, Kenya, we report both intent-to-treat effects as well as local average treatment effects to demonstrate the impacts of these credit products not only among borrowers, but the broader effects of expanding rural credit markets. We see generally low levels of food security resilience among our sampled households, but we find compelling evidence that credit and expanded credit markets more broadly had beneficial impacts on enhancing households’ food security and resilience. Despite the differences in the two credit products being evaluated, we do not find an appreciable difference in the effects of the two credit types, concluding that the expansion of affordable agricultural credit markets should be among the key policy tools for building resilience among rural smallholders.

Aflatoxin surveillance in Kenya

The dataset contains results of a project measuring the prevalence of aflatoxin contamination in maize purchased at retail sites across Kenya in 2021. Samples of packaged flour and informally milled (posho) flour were purchased from a variety of retailers across ten urban sampling sites every two months for a duration of one year. Samples were transported after purchase to the University of Nairobi for laboratory analysis to measure the prevalence of aflatoxin contamination. The results of this analysis are included in this dataset, along with information on the location of the mill where the flour was processed, the sampling location where it was purchased, the timing of data collection and the type of flour.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Sierra Leone: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2023 Sierra Leone Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Consumer preferences for biofortified iron beans: Results from a willingness to pay and choice experiment in Kenya

Micronutrient deficiency is a public health issue in many developing countries including Kenya. Despite the release of Biofortified Iron Beans (BIBS) to bridge the health burden, their adoption has been slow. Our study applies the willingness to pay (WTP) and choice experiments to assess preferences for BIB attributes among consumers. Using a dataset of 561 respondents, we compare the WTP among consumers in a large urban city (Nairobi) with those in a rural area (Bomet) where BIB production has been promoted. We test whether message framing (gain vs loss framed) has varied effects in the rural-urban context, following the prospect hypothesis. This study further utilises choice experiment to test the extent to which biofortification attribute is important for bean preferences. WTP results show that consumers are willing to pay a premium of 38.5 percent for the BIBs above the price of their preferred conventional beans (KES 165.7), signifying high acceptance. Rural respondents have a higher WTP (KES 71.06) than urban respondents highlighting the role of proximity to BIB production area. Consistent with prospect theory, male and urban respondents are willing to pay more under loss-frame messaging than gain-frame messaging, while female respondents are more responsive under gain-frame messaging. Surprisingly, awareness on nutrient enriched beans exhibits negative influence on WTP for the respondents exposed to gain-framed messaging. This may be due to consumers attaching public good properties to BIBs and therefore less willing to pay for biofortified traits. Results from the conditional logit model indicate biofortification is important for urban consumers and female-headed households. Based on the findings, there’s need for targeted nutrition education programming among rural-urban and male-female consumers. Considering that flatulence, cooking time and taste are main preferred attributes of BIBs, promotional messages that include these attributes could be used to accompany the biofortification messages to catalyze adoption.