PUBLICATIONS

Imperfect competition and asymmetric welfare effects of global price and productivity shocks: a CGE model analysis for Senegal

This article investigates the asymmetric effects of global price and productivity shocks on welfare in the context of imperfect competition. The primary objective is to understand how market concentration affects the transmission of economic shocks and their impacts on various households. A CGE model, calibrated on a 2014 social accounting matrix for Senegal, is used. The model features a trading sector operating under a Cournot oligopoly with increasing returns to scale. Two scenarios are simulated: a 15% increase in global import prices and a 10% increase in agricultural productivity, each considering different levels of market concentration. The findings reveal that higher global import prices reduce household well-being, a situation exacerbated by low market competition. In contrast, agricultural productivity gains enhance well-being, with these benefits amplified by greater competition. However, the wealthiest households in Dakar benefit from low competition due to their positions in oligopolistic companies. To maximize household well-being, economic policies should focus on strengthening market competition, particularly in the trading sector. Actions such as reducing entry barriers for new businesses and regulating anti-competitive practices can help mitigate the adverse effects of global price increases and amplify the benefits of agricultural productivity gains.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, February 2025

Highlights
 Retail prices of maize increased by 32 percent in February as a result of a similar decrease in the value of
Malawi Kwacha on the informal market.
 Maize prices were lowest in the Northern region, where informal imports from Tanzania enter the country, and
increased southward.
 At the market exchange rate, retail prices of maize in Malawi were similar to those in Zambia and Mozambique, but lower than in Zimbabwe.

Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agri-food system

Armed actors, including militaries and paramilitaries, are heavily entrenched in the agrifood systems of several low- and middle-income countries, often resulting in negative implications for both agricultural transformation and democratic transitions. However, the role of armed actors is overlooked in the scholarship on the governance of agricultural value chains. To address this gap, this paper focuses on the role of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan's agrifood system. Through over 50 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, the paper traces how the SAF and RSF initially gained their foothold in the agrifood system and how they interact with each other, and the private sector across diverse value chains. We argue that these actors decide to pursue investments in certain value chains depending on the extent to which the private sector is already involved and the degree of technical complexity required to attain more profitable product upgrading. Based on these considerations, we uncover four strategies used by SAF and RSF in different value chains: exclusive capture and rent extraction, competition through biased licensing and quota allocations, acquiescence to existing private competitors when value-addition is too complex, and innovation when potential is high and the private sector is absent. We show how these strategies manifest across value chains as diverse as livestock, wheat, gum Arabic, and horticulture, with secondary applications to other commodities. Given that economic competition between SAF and RSF was a major factor in the outbreak of the 2023 armed conflict, identifying how these strategies emerged and manifested not only contributes to the literature on business-state relations but also expands insights about the political economy antecedents of large-scale conflict.

Quality of routine health and nutrition data in Ethiopia: A systematic review

Background
High-quality data are vital for informed decision-making, enhancing population health, and achieving comprehensive insights. However, there is limited understanding of the consistency and reliability of routine Health Management Information System (HMIS) including nutrition data across diverse regions in Ethiopia. This study systematically reviewed the existing literature to address these knowledge gaps.

Methods
We systematically searched PubMed, HINARI, and Google Scholar for studies published from 2015 onwards to assess HMIS, including nutrition data quality in Ethiopia. The evaluations focused on completeness, consistency, and timeliness metrics defined by the WHO. We included diverse regional studies without indicator restrictions, prioritized data quality metrics as primary outcomes, and explored qualitative reasons for poor data quality as secondary outcomes.

Results
Of the 1790 papers screened, 25 met the inclusion criteria. The completeness of reporting varied widely among studies (50%–100%), with only 21% (4 out of 19) exceeding 90%. The consistency ranged from 38.9% to 90.5%, with only 6% of studies reporting internal consistency above 90%. Other consistency issues included lack of external consistency, indicator discrepancies, and outliers. Timeliness ranged from 41.9% to 93.7%, with 54% of studies reporting below 80%. In addition to the lack of studies addressing nutrition data, the quality was no better than other components of HMIS. The major factors contributing to poor data quality were human resource shortages, insufficient capacity building, behavioural influences, and infrastructural deficits.

Conclusion
The HMIS including nutrition data in Ethiopia, exhibited deficiencies in completeness, consistency, and timeliness, which were largely, attributed to capacity and resource constraints. Interventions should prioritize resource allocation, staff training, supervision, and feedback mechanisms to enhance data quality, thereby improving decision-making processes and population health outcomes.

Armed conflict and gendered participation in agrifood systems: Survey evidence from 29 African countries

This paper provides empirical micro-level evidence on the gendered impacts of armed conflict on economic activity in agriculture and other sectors, combining large-N sex-disaggregated survey data with temporally and spatially disaggregated conflict event data from 29 African countries. We find that local conflict exposure is only weakly related to labour-force participation, but strongly reduces the total number of hours worked and increases engagement in the agricultural sector. These net impacts exist for both men and women. However, the reduction in hours worked is significantly greater among men, while the increase in agricultural activity is significantly greater among women. In the longer term, impacts of conflict on employment two years later are stronger when no more conflict ensues than if further conflict occurs, challenging the widespread idea of one-off conflict shocks fading away over time and suggesting that labour markets adapt to and absorb lasting conflict situations. Different types of conflict event have qualitatively similar impacts, which are strongest for explosions, such as from air strikes or landmines. Overall, our findings underline that armed conflict entails structural economic, social and institutional change, which creates complex, gendered impacts on economic activity.

Building Ethiopia’s food security resilience to climate and hydrological change

Historically Ethiopia's food security has been sensitive to climatic variability, but changes in future weather and climate could lead to overall reductions and increased variability in agricultural production, without further adaptation. We present an integrated modelling assessment framework which combines climate, crop, and hydrological modelling to quantify future risks to Ethiopia's food security. We explore the impacts of 2°C and higher climate change scenarios on water availability and crop yields and simulate how future climate shocks may impact Ethiopia's food. We consider three adaptations to agricultural management practices (improved seed varieties, increased use of nitrogen fertilizer and supplementary irrigation) and quantify their effectiveness in enhancing the resilience of Ethiopia's food system to climate and hydrological change by 2050. Results show that, without policy intervention, climate change creates a risk of declining Meher season crop yields across Ethiopia. Under the worst climate change scenario, teff (−12.0%), barley (−6.7%), and wheat (−4.4%) are projected to have the largest decline in average yields, whilst maize (−0.1%) and sorghum (+0.9%) yields are less impacted thanks to more favourable growing conditions. However, the results also indicate that the adaptation options have a bigger beneficial effect than the climate impact. Of the policies evaluated, improved seeds have a relatively greater effect than increased fertilizer use. Supplementary irrigation could help to mitigate increases in crop water requirements under warmer climate conditions and is most effective in drought prone basins and for drought-vulnerable crops. Overall, the results show that locally relevant agricultural policies are necessary to build Ethiopia's food system resilience to climate and hydrological change by the mid-century.

Protocol: Food environment, food choice, diets, and nutrition outcomes of pastoralists in Africa: Scoping review protocol

This is the protocol for a Campbell scoping review. The objectives are as follows: (i) To define and characterize the food environment of pastoralists in Africa; (ii) To identify the domains of the food environment that have been studied in pastoralist settings in Africa; (iii) To assess the relationship between the food environment and food choice, dietary intake, and nutrition outcomes among pastoralists in Africa; and (iv) To map the study designs, methods, and geographical coverage of the studies.

Seed certification, certified seeds use and yield outcomes in Nigeria: Insights from nationally-representative farm panel data and seed company location data

CONTEXT
Despite the importance of enhanced seed quality to agricultural productivity growth, evidence remains scarce regarding the nature and possible drivers of returns to formal sector quality assurance systems, including certified seeds production in countries like Nigeria that focus significantly on the formal-sector seed systems.
OBJECTIVE
This study narrows this knowledge gap by estimating the effect of the quantity of certified seeds produced and the spatial variations where they are produced on the use of certified seeds and yields. We also assess the yield effects of certified seeds use and their relationship with agroclimatic and socioeconomic conditions.
METHODS
We combine nationally-representative farm-household survey panel data with spatial data on the headquarters locations of seed companies, the quantity of certified seeds for maize, cowpea, and rice that they produce, and spatially explicit agroecological data. We apply panel fixed effects methods as well as instrumental-variable methods to address potential endogeneity associated with certified seeds use while also controlling for the use of improved varieties to separate their effects from the effects of certified seeds.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Our findings indicate that the availability of certified seeds—captured by indicators of certified seeds produced by seed companies headquartered in the states of survey respondents—is associated with positive but declining marginal effects on certified seeds use and yields. These results are robust when we also consider the potential within-state heterogeneity in the proximity to seed company headquarters, as well as potential spillovers from the nearest adjacent states. The yield effects of certified seeds are heterogeneous and depend on agroclimatic conditions and farmers' socioeconomic characteristics. The use of certified seeds is somewhat higher in areas with higher yield effects after controlling for certified seeds production. These patterns partly lead to observed non-linearities in certified seeds use because certified seeds may be more likely to be used by farmers with higher expected returns than farmers with lower expected returns. These results underscore the importance of spatially targeted efforts in enhancing certified seeds production capacity, together with the exploration of intermediate quality standards in the short term where costs of seed certification are high relative to returns.
SIGNIFICANCE
The study provides unique quantitative evidence in a nationally representative framework in an African country that returns to seed certification systems in the current setting significantly vary depending on contexts, including agroclimatic conditions.

Shocks and stability of risk and time preferences among poor rural households in Ethiopia

This paper examines the effects of shocks on temporal stability of risk and time preferences of rural households within a developing country context characterized by frequent droughts, chronic food insecurity, and low levels of education. Leveraging a three-wave large and diverse household panel data that elicits preferences every two years for more than 6,500 individuals from over 5,600 sample rural households in Ethiopia, we analyze the effects of droughts (self-reported) and rainfall shortfalls on household risk and time preferences. Our findings show that households become more risk-averse and impatient after experiencing drought and rainfall shocks; the change in risk preferences is more notable among households that experience recurrent droughts and multiple covariate shocks during the same period.

Rural underemployment and urbanisation: Insights from a 9-year panel from Malawi

Rural labour markets in Africa are frequently characterised by underemployment, with farmers unable to fully deploy throughout the year one of their most important assets—their labour. Using a nine-year panel data set on 1,407 working-age adults from rural Malawi, we document changes in rural underemployment over this period and how they are associated with urbanisation. Nearby urban growth is linked to increased hours worked in casual labour (ganyu) and in non-agricultural sectors, at the expense of work on the household farm. Improved urban access is also associated with a small increase in wage labour and, at the intensive margin, with hours supplied in household enterprises. We draw lessons from these results for policies, investments and interventions to leverage urban growth for rural development.

Evaluating the gendered credit constraints and uptake of an insurance-linked credit product among smallholder farmers in Kenya

Adapting to extreme weather conditions in a developing country: An economywide policy assessment from Malawi

Understanding pastoralist adaptations to drought via games and choice experiments: Field testing among Borana communities

Transhumant and nomadic pastoralism in arid and semi-arid spaces from West through Central, East, and Southern Africa is regarded as critical to regional system resilience and food security. Although pastoral systems are highly adapted and adaptive to uncertainty and change, recent decades of severe climatic events and increasing resource pressure are pushing pastoral systems to adopt novel norms and practices. Importantly, forage residue conservation and private forage enclosures are becoming important practices among herders and non-herders alike. As one part of considering the relevance of these responses in shaping the future trajectory of transhumant pastoralism, we developed a multi-part intervention for measuring and observing preferences in pastoral systems, including a novel experimental game called GreenReserve, and tested it in Borana communities in northern Kenya. We found that GreenReserve captured dimensions of human-environment dilemmas faced by pastoralists, and shifted preferences around herd size, losses, and the use of time, as measured through a repeated discrete choice experiment. We found game groups with younger players and with more female players to include more exploration of pastoral adaptations such as the use of grass reserves and the harvesting of grass, as well as to have less conflict within the game. We also observed both preferences as well as game strategy to shift along the length of the study: as the region moved further into a drought and failed short rainy season, players were more conscious of large herds, bad rainfall-year losses, and made better use of reserves in game play, though it was beyond the scope of the current study to determine causality. Future research is needed to unpack the mechanisms underlying the variations and possible shift in preferences and subsequently help identify entry points for targeted interventions (including agricultural extension services) to support pastoral communities in climate change adaptation. Further, these first fieldwork findings suggest two key dimensions for expanded work beyond this study to identify whether mixed methods approaches such as this aid experiential learning in agriculture contexts.

Comparison of gestational age assessment methods in the second and third trimesters: Evaluating alternative approaches against ultrasound in urban Burkina Faso

Background: Accurate determination of gestational age by way of ultrasound is challenging in resource-limited settings like Burkina Faso, leading to the use of alternative methods, though their accuracy and agreement remain poorly established. This practice leads to inadequate risk assessment during pregnancy and failure to identify preterm birth, potentially contributing to high neonatal mortality rates. The purpose of this study was to determine the agreement among alternative methods for gestational age estimation and the Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement (AMANHI) method in Burkina Faso. Methods: Data were obtained from a prospective cohort study involving pregnant women in the second or third trimester in Bobo-Dioulasso to evaluate the agreement of last menstrual period (LMP), symphysis-fundal height (SFH), Dubowitz, Hadlock, and AMAHNI methods to estimate gestational age. The degree of agreement was assessed using the Bland–Altman method and intraclass correlation coefficients. The AMANHI method, validated for late pregnancy, was used as the reference standard. Results: A total of 768 pregnant women were included in the analysis. Plots showed a lack of agreement between the AMANHI method and all other methods, with 95% limits of agreement ranging from −7.6 to +9.8 weeks. Additionally, the incidence of preterm birth was consistently higher when assessed using the alternative methods compared with the AMANHI method. Conclusions: The clinical methods (SFH, LMP, Dubowitz) disagree with the ultrasound methods (AMANHI, Hadlock), but the ultrasound methods produce more similar results. The routine application of other methods is likely to result in an overestimation of preterm birth incidence compared with AMANHI. These findings highlight the urgent need to improve access to obstetric ultrasound and to provide comprehensive training in the application of the AMANHI method for accurate late-term gestational age estimation in Burkina Faso.

Seeds of change: The impact of Ethiopia’s direct seed marketing approach on smallholders’ seed purchases and productivity

Several factors contribute to the limited use of improved seed varieties in Ethiopia. Among those, on the supply side, is the restricted availability of seeds in the volume, quality, and timeliness required by farmers, partly due to inadequate public and private investment in the sector. Beginning in 2011, the Government of Ethiopia introduced a novel experiment—the direct seed marketing approach—to reduce some of the centralized, state-run attributes of the country’s seed market and rationalize the use of public resources. Direct seed marketing was designed to incentivize private and public seed producers to sell directly to farmers rather than through the state apparatus. This study is the first quantitative evaluation of the impact of direct seed marketing on indicators of a healthy seed system: access to quality seeds and farm-level productivity. Using a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach suitable to handling variation in treatment timing, the study finds that direct seed marketing led to an increase of 15 percentage points in the proportion of farmers purchasing maize seed, an increase of 45 percent in the quantity of maize seed purchased per hectare, and an increase of 18 percent in maize yield. However, there are differences across crops, with the effects of direct seed marketing on wheat seed purchases and yields being statistically insignificant. These crop-specific differences in performance are likely explained by differences in the reproductive biology of maize (particularly maize hybrids) and wheat, which tend to incentivize commercial activity in hybrid maize seed markets more than in self-pollinating wheat or open-pollinated maize markets. These differences suggest a need for nuanced policy responses, institutional arrangements, and market development strategies to accelerate the adoption of improved varieties.

Production and consumption traits and the adoption of improved maize varieties: Evidence from seed sample packs and cooking demonstrations

In developing countries, semi-subsistence farmers typically assume dual roles as both consumers and producers of the same crops, which shape their adoption decisions as they balance household food security with market-driven incentives. This study, conducted in eastern Uganda, employs a field experiment with two intervention arms to assess the relative importance of these factors in farmers’ decisions to adopt improved maize seed varieties. The first intervention focuses on production traits, distributing free sample packs of an improved hybrid maize variety to showcase benefits such as higher yields, pest resistance, and drought tolerance. The second intervention emphasizes consumption traits, offering cooking demonstrations and blind taste tests using flour from the same improved maize variety to highlight its taste, texture, and ease of preparation. Our findings reveal that while seed sample packs positively influenced farmers’ perceptions of both production and consumption traits, cooking demonstrations primarily affected perceptions of consumption qualities. We find some evidence that the cooking demonstrations and tasting sessions significantly boosted adoption of the improved maize seed variety promoted by the intervention. However, farmers who received seed sample packs tended to recycle the harvested grain as seed in subsequent seasons, thereby crowding out fresh seed purchases. This practice led to productivity losses, suggesting that the seed trial packs did not translate into lasting improvements in food security or increased market participation.

The dynamic impacts of alternative livestock sector intervention and spending options in Rwanda

This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of various livestock interventions—feed, breeding, and health—and budget allocation strategies (balanced, feed-oriented, breeding oriented, and health-oriented) in the context of Rwanda’s economic and livestock systems. Using an economic and livestock systems integrated framework, the research highlights moderate yet sustained impacts on agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and significant improvements in the livestock sector. Overall, breeding interventions have the largest cumulative effect on agricultural GDP, while health measures, particularly dewormers, yield long-term gains in livestock productivity. Under the balanced scenario, breeding contributes significantly to both meat and milk sector GDP, while feed interventions show a smaller impact overall. The study also finds that biased spending scenarios lead to differing outcomes across livestock sub-sectors. Breeding-oriented spending boosts milk GDP initially, whereas health-oriented spending excels in meat production through reduced deaths and increased liveweight. By the end of the simulation period, a balanced investment strategy results in a 12.5 percent increase in meat yield and a 27 percent rise in milk yield, largely driven by breeding. Health interventions, particularly deworming, are crucial for sustained meat production, while improved feed mitigates mortality and supports stock growth. These results can support policy dialogue, such as the recently introduced Fifth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5), as policy makers seek to revitalize the livestock sector and enhance its resilience to future challenges.

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Kenya

Despite progress in reducing child stunting over the past 15 years, Kenya is now facing new nutrition challenges, including overweight and obesity. The double burden of malnutrition (DBM), which is the coexistence of under- and overnutrition within individuals, households, and populations [1], manifests as child stunting and adult overweight (mostly in women) at the population and household levels. Dietary diversity is low and affects different population groups (particularly young children, adolescents, and women), predisposing them to micronutrient deficiencies. However, recent data on micronutrient intake and status are lacking. Households living in urban areas are vulnerable to being overweight, a consequence of increasingly unhealthy dietary patterns. In Kenya’s informal urban settlements, limited dietary diversity, reliance on cereals, and widespread consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) contribute to high rates of child stunting, underweight, and the DBM, with affordability and accessibility driving food choices. Compounding factors include food safety concerns, clustering of unhealthy food vendors, and external shocks. Urban nutrition interventions have had mixed results, with some programs improving child health and maternal knowledge, but others showing no significant impact. Kenya aims to eliminate malnutrition by 2027, but national policies focus mostly on rural areas, leaving urban nutrition challenges insufficiently addressed. Programs such as Afya Jiji and the Nairobi City County Food System Strategy target urban health, but gaps in urban-specific strategies, poor coordination, and limited funding hinder progress. The national school meals program serves only a small portion of schools, and urban food policies are still underdeveloped.

SELEVER study data

The SELEVER study was a cluster randomized controlled trial aiming to evaluate the effects of an inte-grated agriculture–nutrition intervention package (including poultry value chain development, women’s empowerment activities, and a behavior change communications strategy to promote improved diets and feeding, care, and hygiene practices) on the diets, health, and nutritional status of women and chil-dren in rural Burkina Faso (1).
Four rounds of data collection were carried out in rural communities of three regions of Burkina Faso: Boucle du Mouhoun, Centre-Ouest and Haut-Bassins between March 2017 and August 2020. The first round (Baseline) took place between March and June 2017 during the post-harvest season in a sam-ple of 1800 households. The second (Follow-up) and third (Follow-up 2) rounds took place during the lean season in 2017 (September-October) and 2019 (September-October) in a subsample of 1080 households. The last survey round (Endline) took place between March and August 2020 (including a break due to covid-19 restrictions).

Cost effectiveness of anticipatory action: Lesotho, Madagascar, and Mozambique

An important question when conducting anticipatory action programs relates to its cost-effectiveness. By cost effectiveness, we refer to the relative costs and benefits of anticipatory action in general relative to a more standard approach to post-shock aid. In this context, we largely want to know what would happen to potential beneficiary households in two different scenarios: 1) if they receive anticipatory action transfers, and 2) if they instead receive unconditional post-shock transfers of the same size. The idea is that we assume there is a fixed budget envelope, and the same amount of assistance could be provided as either anticipatory action or as post-shock transfers. The resulting measurement estimates the difference in benefits and losses to providing anticipatory action relative to post-shock assistance, providing a conclusion on the overall net benefits or losses of this approach. Since we assume a fixed budget envelope, we invert the process of measuring cost effectiveness by measuring the net benefits of anticipatory action relative to post-shock transfers.
This analysis uses the conceptual framework developed by de Brauw and Bloem (2024) to identify classes of potential benefits and costs for anticipatory action relative to unconditional post-shock transfers. The model suggests the main benefit to anticipatory action is that households can better protect their productive asset holdings, whether livestock or other farm implements, which implies their future incomes will be higher than they would be otherwise. There are also potential gains for households during the negative shock, implying those households may be less food insecure, for example, while the shock is occurring.1 On the other hand, the framework suggests that a specific cost to anticipatory action is the cost of getting it wrong (i.e., giving people benefits when the shock does not materialize for those people).

Commercialization and dietary diversity of Rwandan smallholder farmers: A focus on women and youth headed households

Using a household dietary diversity score as a proxy for household access to nutritious foods, this paper assesses the relationship between commercialization and nutritional outcomes of Rwandan smallholder farmers, with a particular emphasis on women and youth headed households. The results indicate that commercialization has a strong, positive effect on household dietary diversity but mixed results between sub-categories of households. For instance, male-headed households have higher overall dietary diversity compared to female-headed ones, but much of that variation can be explained by higher asset ownership and income. However, relative to male headed households, female headed households appear to respond to increasing levels of commercialization by consuming more diverse foods, an insight that could be useful for targeted interventions. Importantly, youth-headed households exhibit greater household dietary diversity than those households headed by older individuals, despite having both lower levels of assets and crop commercialization. General determinants that positively influence household dietary diversity include the level of commercialization, household non-farm assets, market access, education of the household head, the presence of children under five in the household, irrigation use, land size, and livestock holdings. The goal of this research is to enable policy makers to better identify the drivers of household dietary consumption, particularly among more vulnerable households, and how to encourage a more diverse diet for better nutritional outcomes.

Market monitoring in Rwanda’s rice sector: Insights from recent events

Summary
• While domestic rice production has risen 16% over the past five years, district level growth rates are varied and suggest strong growth in some districts but reductions in others. Leveraging higher growth area’s successes could be used to further expand production in declining growth districts.
• Microeconomic data suggests that smallholder rice farmers have slightly larger than average landholdings, grow at lower elevations, and sell about twice the percentage of crop value when compared to typical smallholders.
• A declining Tanzanian rice premium over the last five years (2019-2024) suggests a greater substitutability between Rwandan and Tanzanian rice but specific reasons for this trend are unclear and warrant further research. Overall, a 50 percent premium has been reduced to currently about 20 percent.
• Following a dramatic price increase in 2022, a subsequent large decrease in Tanzanian wholesale rice prices may have undermined government price setting in August 2024. Domestic producer rice price setting has been based on costs of production but appears to not consider other factors, such as the effects of imported prices of direct substitutes. A price analysis reveals that Tanzanian wholesale prices, valued in USD, fell about 37 percent from October 2023 to August 2024, while Rwandan retail rice prices were down only 14 percent. This relative price decrease could have effectively squeezed Rwandan processors when faced with government determined local producer prices that constricted potential profitability against rapidly declining Tanzanian prices.
• Research presented below indicates that Tanzanian wholesale prices have large, immediate impacts on rice prices in Rwanda, but Rwandan prices have little to no effect on either imported or wholesale Tanzanian rice prices. Therefore, dramatic changes of Tanzania wholesale prices have large effects on both retail Tanzanian and Rwandan rice prices in Rwanda. This unidirectional effect highlights the importance of monitoring domestic and important international prices and studying prices which could have potentially helped policymakers adjust to market dynamics more effectively and better inform target interventions. We recommend developing an improved market monitoring and forecasting unit to better incorporate the food systems approach promoted in PSTA 5.

Unique datasets on shocks, food security, and household coping strategies: Creating new analytical playgrounds to study coping behavior in the multi-shock environments of Mali, Chad, Niger, and Burkina Faso (2018-2023)

To inform the Cadre Harmonisé process in West Africa, large-scale national household surveys are usually implemented twice a year to capture data on household food security and several forms of consumption- and livelihood-based coping strategies. These cross-sectional surveys typically take place around February-March (before the start of the lean season) and September-October (at the end of the lean season or beginning of the harvesting period), and they are generally representative at the second-tier administrative level. Despite their different names (that is, ENSAN in Mali, ENSA in Chad, EVIAM in Niger, and ENISAN in Burkina Faso) and the methodological revisions introduced over the years, these surveys have a large common set of variables that were pooled together by standardizing the modalities of all common variables found across the multiple survey waves between 2018 and 2023. Apart from reconsolidation and reprocessing of initial data files, this process also involved the re-computation of several key indicators on food security and household coping as to assure maximum methodological consistency over time.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, January 2025

Highlights
 Retail prices of maize increased by 21 percent in January.
 Maize prices were lowest in the Northern region, where informal imports from Tanzania and northern Zambia enter the country, and increased southward.
 Some maize was exported to southern Zambia, but high prices in southern Malawi attracted imports from Mozambique.
 At the market exchange rate, retail prices of maize in Malawi were similar to those in Zambia and lower than in Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

Madagascar assessment

Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) presents a promising intervention in Madagascar, where approximately 75% of the population lives below the poverty line and faces multiple malnutrition burdens. For instance, 39.8% of children under age five are stunted, and 37.8% of reproductive age women suffer from anemia (Development Initiatives 2022). These trends persist despite a long history of nutrition programs and alliances, including the introduction of a mandatory salt iodization program in 1995, several national nutrition policies and action plans since 2004, and the country’s participation in the Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) movement since 2021. Moreover, despite several voluntary standards in place, progress in implementing mandatory LSFF for widely consumed foods remains stalled, lagging behind LSFF in many other African countries.

Conditional contracts in indirect local procurement of maize from smallholder farmers in Uganda: A study design to assess impacts

Improving smallholder farmers’ access to reliable markets can have significant impacts on their wellbeing, income, poverty reduction, dietary diversity, and rural economic growth. As the choice of marketing channels may influence outcomes differently depending on the context, a key issue is understanding the effectiveness of different marketing instruments. One such modality is a conditional contract between a buyer and the traders supplying it. Such a contract requires traders to source a certain percentage of their supplies directly from smallholder farmers. This raises the question of whether conditional contracts create access to reliable markets for smallholder farmers, result in value chain transformation, and sustain market engagement between traders and smallholder farmers.

Country profile – Senegal: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

This country brief supports GCAN's goal of integrating gender, climate resilience, and nutrition considerations into policies, interventions, and research by providing policymakers, program officers, and researchers with an analysis of Senegal’s current situation and policy landscape in these areas. In 2019, the agrifood system of Senegal accounted for 36% of total GDP and employed 43% of the total work force. The off-farm components (i.e., processing, trade/transport, food services, and input supply) are slightly more (less) important than primary agriculture in terms of GDP (employment), which implies that labor productivity is higher for off-farm activities. The most important value chains as a percentage of total agrifood system’s GDP are groundnuts (15%), cattle/dairy (14%), and sorghum/millet and fish (both around 11%) (Diao et al. 2023). In part due to important food losses observed during storage and distribution, Senegal’s agrifood system is generally failing to provide nutritious and affordable diets to its population. In fact, total food supplies are dominated by energy-dense food items, with supplies in fruit and pulses amounting to only 55 and 15 grams per capita per day, respectively, resulting in 50% of all Senegalese being unable to afford a healthy diet in 2022.

Association between wasting and inadequate breastfeeding practices among infants under six months in SNNPR and Somali regions of Ethiopia: A multilevel cross-sectional study

Background
Wasting is a severe threat to children’s survival and development. Attaining optimal breastfeeding practices for infants under six months of age remains a significant challenge in low-income countries. This study assessed the association between wasting and breastfeeding practices among infants under six months of age in the SNNPR and Somali regions of Ethiopia.

Methods
The study used data from a large feasibility study conducted in the SNNPR and Somali regions of Ethiopia, from August-September 2021. This study involved 895 infants under six months of age with their mothers. The Poisson regression model with robust variance estimation was used to produce adjusted prevalence ratios (APRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results
The prevalence of wasting was 16.5% (95% CI: 14.2, 19.2) among infants under six months of age. Non-exclusive breastfeeding (APR = 1.50; 95% CI:1.02, 2.21), delayed initiation of breastfeeding (APR = 1.52; CI:1.00, 2.30), being male infants (APR = 1.50; 95% CI:1.09, 2.07), and mothers who attained primary level (APR = 0.62; 95% CI: 0.40, 0.95) or secondary level education (APR = 0.30; 95% CI: 0.09, 0.99) were independently associated with wasting in the multivariable analysis.

Conclusion
This study indicates a high prevalence of wasting among infants under six months of age. Non-exclusive breastfeeding and delayed initiation of breastfeeding were the modifiable factors significantly linked to infant wasting. Strengthening breastfeeding promotion and support may help reduce wasting in infants under six months.

Assessing global price shocks and mitigation policies on welfare and food security in Nigeria

Variations in agricultural and energy prices have direct and cascading effects on economic and agri-food systems. In this study, we developed a dynamic general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of the global price shocks induced by the Russia-Ukraine war on welfare and food security in Nigeria. In addition, we analysed the effectiveness of different policy options, specifically a reduction in indirect taxes and an increase in cash transfers to affected households, in the short and long term. The results showed that the shocks create opportunities for Nigeria, particularly in the trade, livestock, and agricultural sectors. This leads to an increase in GDP, employment, and incomes. However, these effects fade over time due to the rise in food prices that negatively affects food consumption and some food security indicators. Moreover, the comparative analysis of mitigation scenarios revealed that targeted public cash transfers to households are more effective than reduction in consumption taxes on food in mitigating the negative effects on households.

Assessing the projected impacts of alternative PSTA5 spending trajectories on the Rwandan economy

Data-driven and evidence-based approaches are critical for shaping public policy, investment, and expenditure decisions, ensuring that development plans are effective and well-informed. The RIAPA model, utilized in this study, has played a key role in informing policy discussions, including the identification of national priorities and strategies, the mid-term assessment of the Rwanda’s fourth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 4), and the post-COVID-19 recovery and relief efforts. This policy note employs a Rwanda-specific RIAPA model integrated with an investment module to analyze the expected benefits from agricultural investments outlined in the Fifth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5) for 2025-2029. Results show that, compared
to PSTA 4 spending trends, a moderate spending scenario under PSTA 5 could accelerate agricultural transformation and inclusive growth by 2.8 percentage points. A higher budget scenario, re quiring an average annual expenditure of $610 million, is projected to reach an ambitious eight percent agricultural growth target. Faster agricultural growth would further stimulate the off-farm components of the agri-food system, reinforcing agriculture's role as an economic growth engine. By 2029, PSTA 5 could reduce poverty and undernourishment by 1.6 million people, contingent on managing potentially significant climatic and external economic risks.

Household coping strategies and food security in the multi-shock environment of Mali

This study investigates household coping strategies and food security outcomes within the context of multiple, overlapping shocks, including conflict, food price volatility, climate events, and economic instability. Utilizing a unique household dataset on Mali combined with probit models to account for the compounded effects of these systemic shocks, the analysis highlights significant elasticities between specific shocks and household responses. Key findings demonstrate that while preventive measures, such as income diversification, strengthen resilience, reactive strategies like selling productive assets or borrowing money or food provide only short-term relief but undermine long-term sustainability. The impact of coping strategies on food security measures, including the Food Consumption Score (FCS), Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS), and Household Hunger Scale (HHS), reveals the trade-offs Malian households make between immediate needs and future stability. The study emphasizes the critical role of policy interventions in mitigating these vulnerabilities, including strengthening social safety nets, expanding access to financial services, and promoting climate-resilient agricultural practices. By integrating the analysis of multiple shocks, this research provides actionable insights for building household and community resilience in environments of compounded risk.

Integrated agro-industrial parks in Ethiopia: Status, success and challenges with a focus on Yirgalem IAIP

This study aims to assess the current state, successes, and challenges of Integrated Agro-Industrial Parks (IAIPs) in Ethiopia, with a specific focus on the Yirgalem Integrated Agro-Industrial Park (YIAIP). The analysis is based on an extensive literature review and semi-structured interviews with key informants (KIIs). By examining the current state of Ethiopia's IAIPs, the research provides valuable insights into their successes and shortcomings, offering critical lessons to enhance the sustainability of IAIPs in Ethiopia and guide the development of similar initiatives in other Sub-Saharan African countries.

The case for food system knowledge support system (FS-KSS)

The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) Strategy and Action Plan (2026-2035) is a key framework aimed at transforming Africa’s agrifood systems to achieve sustainable agricultural growth, food security, and economic development across the continent. Building on the lessons from the Malabo Declaration, the Plan emphasizes the need for sustainable food production, inclusivity, and resilience in the face of climate change and other challenges. However, achieving these ambitious goals requires a robust and integrated support system that can provide accurate, real time data, facilitate evidence-based decision-making, and promote accountability among stakeholders. Without a well-functioning knowledge system, the efforts to transform agrifood systems may be hindered by data gaps, limited analytical capacity, and a lack of coordination among various actors. The effectiveness of food systems in Africa is often hindered by data gaps, inconsistencies, and limited capacity for data analysis. These issues compromise the ability of governments and other stakeholders to make informed decisions, implement sound policies, and monitor progress toward national and continental goals such as food security and climate resilience. This is where the Food System Knowledge Support System (FS-KSS) becomes crucial, as it provides the necessary tools to ensure effective implementation of the CAADP Strategy and Action Plan.

Comprehensive mapping of food systems is necessary to guide transformation efforts: The case of Rwanda

Rwanda has made significant strides in improving its food systems, with notable progress in reducing malnutrition and stunting, especially among children. Stunting rates declined from over 50% in the early 2000s to 33% by 2020, reflecting the government’s commitment to addressing food insecurity and enhancing nutrition through a range of agricultural and public health initiatives. The country’s Crop Intensification Program (CIP) has played a pivotal role in increasing agricultural productivity, especially for staple crops like maize, beans, and Irish potatoes, which has contributed to better food availability across the country. Despite these achievements, substantial challenges persist. Almost 19% of households still face food insecurity, with the highest prevalence in rural areas. Additionally, malnutrition continues to affect vulnerable populations, with anemia rates among women of reproductive age at 37%, signaling gaps in nutrition security. Environmental concerns, including soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change, further complicate efforts to sustain agricultural productivity. Approximately 40% of Rwanda’s land is affected by soil erosion, and shifting climate patterns pose increasing risks to agricultural yields. These challenges indicate the need for a more strategic, research-based approach to understanding and transforming Rwanda’s food system.

The case for post Malabo Agenda implementation guidelines

The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), developed by the African Union (AU) in 2003, marked a significant turning point for Africa’s agricultural development. CAADP’s objective was to transform agriculture into a key driver of economic growth, poverty reduction, and food security across the continent. Through a focus on increasing agricultural productivity and ensuring that agricultural development was aligned with national and regional priorities, CAADP sought to tackle Africa’s persistent challenges of hunger, malnutrition, and economic stagnation. In 2014, the Malabo Declaration was introduced as the second phase of CAADP implementation, with a new set of ambitious targets aimed at ending hunger and halving poverty by 2025. The declaration reinforced the importance of agricultural-led growth and committed African governments to specific goals, including increasing agricultural productivity by at least 6% annually and allocating at least 10% of national budgets to agriculture. It also emphasized sustainable agriculture, resilience to climate change, and equitable access to resources, particularly for women and smallholder farmers.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, December 2024

Retail prices of maize increased by 15 percent in December.
Maize prices were lowest in the Northern region, where informal imports from Tanzania enter the country, and increased southward.
At the market exchange rate, retail prices of maize in Malawi were similar to those in Zambia and lower than in Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

The political economy of food self sufficiency policies and food security in African countries

Food security deteriorated in Africa during the past decade, and the number of undernourished people has been increasing since 2010. The prevalence of undernourishment is now above pre-pandemic levelsat 9.7% compared with 7.2% in 2019, and Africa reports the highest level in the world. External factors, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have contributed to this increase Projections show that almost 600 million people in Africa will be chronically undernourished in 2030. Moreover, Africa is not on track for SDG2, eradicate hunger by 2030. To achieve food security and reduce the number of undernourished people, many policymakers are advocating for food self-sufficiency. Relying on local production and promoting it through various policy measures, including restrictive trade policies, appears to many to be a natural solution. Yet, there has been a long-standing debate among analysts as to whether trade restrictions are a good strategy, especially in Africa, to achieve food security. The proponents of food self-sufficiency argue that trade liberalization increases food dependency (and import bills) and makes consumers vulnerable to external shocks in food availability, as well as exposing them to unhealthy foods. They advocate for stimulating local production with subsidies and trade restrictions. For the opponents, opening borders to international trade is a guarantee of cheap and easy access to diversified food products. Furthermore, by partially decoupling local markets from domestic shocks, trade can also help stabilize domestic food markets. This report contributes to that debate. Using both qualitative and quantitative analysis, we reach the conclusion that food self-sufficiency is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for food security. Food security is a multidimensional concept, and only two dimensions– availability and utilization—seem to be affected by food self-sufficiency in Africa. Also, while public support to agriculture can help achieve food self-sufficiency, its impact is not linear, and beyond a certain threshold, diminishing returns are observed. Overall, different approaches can achieve food security, and there is no “one-size-fits-all strategy.” International or regional trade can contribute to food security and stabilize domestic food markets, as regional production is usually less volatile than domestic supply.

Levelling the field: A review of the ICT revolution and agricultural extension in the Global South

Information and communications technology has evolved significantly over the last seven decades, beginning with radio and video vans and culminating in the rise of smartphones and mobile internet in remote areas of the Global South. While ICT is an integral part of agricultural extension, little is known about how these changes have influenced agricultural extension practices. After a systematic review of 131 papers, we find that changes in ICT have shaped agricultural extension, enabling a shift from linear dissemination and “one-way communication” to co-innovation and farmer-to-farmer learning. The results indicate the potential for smartphones and mobile internet to democratize agricultural extension.

Neonatal mortality risk of vulnerable newborns by fine stratum of gestational age and birthweight for 230 679 live births in nine low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2017.

Objective
We aimed to understand the mortality risks of vulnerable newborns (defined as preterm and/or born weighing smaller or larger compared to a standard population), in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Design
Descriptive multi-country, secondary analysis of individual-level study data of babies born since 2000.

Setting
Sixteen subnational, population-based studies from nine LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Latin America.

Population
Live birth neonates.

Methods
We categorically defined five vulnerable newborn types based on size (large- or appropriate- or small-for-gestational age [LGA, AGA, SGA]), and term (T) and preterm (PT): T + LGA, T + SGA, PT + LGA, PT + AGA, and PT + SGA, with T + AGA (reference). A 10-type definition included low birthweight (LBW) and non-LBW, and a four-type definition collapsed AGA/LGA into one category. We performed imputation for missing birthweights in 13 of the studies.

Main Outcome Measures
Median and interquartile ranges by study for the prevalence, mortality rates and relative mortality risks for the four, six and ten type classification.

Results
There were 238 143 live births with known neonatal status. Four of the six types had higher mortality risk: T + SGA (median relative risk [RR] 2.8, interquartile range [IQR] 2.0–3.2), PT + LGA (median RR 7.3, IQR 2.3–10.4), PT + AGA (median RR 6.0, IQR 4.4–13.2) and PT + SGA (median RR 10.4, IQR 8.6–13.9). T + SGA, PT + LGA and PT + AGA babies who were LBW, had higher risk compared with non-LBW babies.

Conclusions
Small and/or preterm babies in LIMCs have a considerably increased mortality risk compared with babies born at term and larger. This classification system may advance the understanding of the social determinants and biomedical risk factors along with improved treatment that is critical for newborn health.

Using a list experiment to measure intimate partner violence: Cautionary evidence from Ethiopia

While indirect response methods are increasingly used in surveys to measure sensitive behaviours such as intimate partner violence, important questions persist around how respondents understand and react to these methods. This article presents evidence from a list experiment measuring multiple forms of intimate partner violence in rural Ethiopia. We find that the list experiment does not generate estimates of intimate partner violence that are higher than direct response questions; rather, prevalence estimates using the list experiment are lower vis-à-vis prevalence estimates using the direct reports, and are sometimes even negative. We provide suggestive evidence that this pattern may reflect ‘fleeing’ behaviour by respondents who do not wish to be associated with statements indicating their exposure to intimate partner violence.

Men can cook: Effectiveness of a men’s engagement intervention to change attitudes and behaviors in rural Ethiopia

Graduation model interventions seek to address multiple barriers constraining households’ exit from poverty, however, few explicitly target restrictive gender norms. Using a randomized controlled trial design, combined with three rounds of data, we investigate the impacts on gender equitable attitudes and behaviors of a graduation program that seeks to address multiple constraints for those in poverty and improve restrictive gender norms in Ethiopia. We find that at 1-year follow-up all treatment arms lead to improvements in men’s gender equitable attitudes and their engagement in household domestic tasks as reported by both men and women; but at 3-year follow-up, impacts are only sustained in the treatment arms that introduced men’s engagement groups after the 1-year follow-up survey to further promote improvements in equitable gender norms.

Using best-worst scaling to inform agroecological interventions in Western Kenya

Both the demand for food and the environmental impacts of food production are estimated to significantly increase by 2050. Agroecological interventions have proven effective in facilitating the transition from current food production systems to more sustainable ones. These interventions can not only ensure more equitable food and nutritional security but also address poverty and reduce environmental impacts. As such, agroecological interventions can generate both private and public ecosystem services. Farmers play a key role in how food is produced, as the practices they use are linked with their preferences and expertise, as well as the constraints they face. Understanding farmers’ preferences for the adoption of different agroecological practices and their perceptions of the associated costs and benefits is critical to informing policies that can effectively support farmers in transitioning to more sustainable practices, including those that contribute to the generation of ecosystem services highly valued by broader society. To assess such preferences, we conducted a survey among farmers in Western Kenya which included a best-worst scaling experiment augmented by qualitative questions about the reasons for farmers’ views about the importance of the benefits arising from agroecological practices. Results show that farmers have strong preferences for adopting agroecological practices that generate private goods and are directly related to increasing productivity and food security, including improving health of household members. These may also include practices that have some public good elements as well, such as increasing agrobiodiversity. However, practices that generate broader public good benefits, including improved forest quality/coverage, reduced off-farm environmental impacts, greater community-level resilience to shocks, and improved landscape and wildlife management, were less important to farmers. Such findings can be used to inform policies that support farmer adoption of agroecological interventions best suited to different farming communities, as well as indicating the need for additional types of market-based incentives, such as through Payments for Ecosystem Service mechanisms.

Identification, characterization, and determinants of dietary patterns of low-income urban adults in Vietnam and Nigeria

Understanding dietary patterns and their determinants can steer efforts to food systems transformations required to provide sustainable healthy diets. Based on 24-h recall data and using latent class analysis, we characterized dietary patterns of adults from low-income neighborhoods in Hanoi, Vietnam and Ibadan, Nigeria (n = 385 and 344, age 18–49 years). We examined sociodemographic determinants and diet quality (diversity, non-communicable disease risk, and micronutrient adequacy) of these patterns. Three dietary patterns were identified in each country. Vietnamese patterns differed in sociodemographic characteristics and diet quality. Nigerian patterns differed in diet quality but not in sociodemographics. Understanding different consumer groups and the drivers of consumption helps to identify tailored interventions to diversify diets and improve diet quality.

To defer or to differ: Experimental evidence on the role of cash transfers in Nigerian couples’ decision–making

Short-term and long-term effects of cash for work: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial in Tunisia

JEL Classification: O12, O15

PEDAL Country Snapshot: Madagascar

Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) helps combat micronutrient deficiencies by adding essential vitamins and minerals to staple foods. This PEDAL assessment identifies key priorities for Madagascar by evaluating its political will and implementation capacity for LSFF. For more information about PEDAL and the detailed Madagascar case study, please see PEDAL for Madagascar brief.

Farm size and agricultural productivity of nutritious foods: Evidence from Ethiopia

Agri-food systems are transforming quickly in Africa. An important issue in the transformation process of agricultural production is the role of small farms. While many authors have looked at this question, one aspect that has received little attention is the role of small farms in the production of nutritious foods, an important topic given the low availability and relatively high prices of nutritious foods and the consequent low level of nutrition security in the continent. Using a unique large-scale dataset from Ethiopia—one of the largest countries in Africa that has been transforming rapidly—we look at the production of vegetables and dairy products. We find a strong association between farm size and partial productivity measured in terms of output, value of outputs and profit per hectare/cow, with productivity twice to four times as high for larger farms. These farms have substantially higher input expenditures as well as differences in farm technologies compared to small ones. Our findings have important implications for the debate on the role of small farms and nutritional improvements in the continent.

JEL Classification: O13, Q12, Q18

Unpacking power dynamics and women's economic empowerment in polygynous households in Burkina Faso

Objective
We aim to describe power distributions in polygynous households and consider how these matter for the production and allocation of food-generating resources in western Burkina Faso, where there is a high prevalence of polygyny.

Background
Recent studies on polygyny focus on its likely negative consequences and mechanisms for explaining these outcomes using data from large multitopic surveys. These approaches fail to consider the underlying dynamics in polygynous households.

Method
As part of a 5-year mixed-methods evaluation of a nutrition- and gender-sensitive poultry value chain intervention in western Burkina Faso, we conducted a thematic analysis of 24 gender-disaggregated focus group discussions (265 individuals) and 24 semi-structured interviews in six communities. They focused on gender and power dynamics, food production, and food allocation with a specific focus on polygyny.

Results
Relationships among co-wives are often cooperative, though not necessarily warm, and typically hierarchical. Monogamous and polygynous marriage may support women's empowerment in different domains. Polygynous co-wives may be able to divide care work, but first wives often control how labor is divided. In monogamous marriages, wives often make decisions jointly with their husbands, while in polygynous marriages, most co-wives are left out of decisions. In polygynous households, women are better able to maintain control over their earnings.

Conclusion
We discuss these findings in terms of their implications for studying polygynous households in quantitative surveys and in terms of how to better design and target interventions for this population.

Conflicts, crop choice, and agricultural investments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

Conflict remains a major driver of poverty in Africa. Conflicts and political instability in the region have been increasing recently and are drawing more attention in public discourse. While it is widely acknowledged that conflicts disrupt agricultural production and food systems, the full extent of the damage inflicted on the lives and livelihoods of farming households and the mechanisms to redress this harm remain poorly understood. In particular, the link between violent conflicts and households’ land allocation and related agricultural investment decisions remains understudied. In this study, we use geocoded longitudinal data along with detailed agricultural panel household surveys in Nigeria to assess the impact of violent conflicts on crop choice decisions and related agricultural investments. Specifically, we explore how farmers’ land allocation and agricultural investment decisions relate or respond to the outbreak and intensity of violent conflicts. We find that violent conflicts are associated with a reduction in the share of both land area cultivated and area harvested. We also find suggestive evidence that violent conflicts may shape farmers’ crop choices and related investments, as violent conflicts are associated with reduction in the share of land allocated to long-term crops (e.g., perennial crops, trees, roots and tubers). Overall, our findings suggest that violent conflicts can negatively influence farmers’ agricultural investments directly by affecting both land utilization patterns and portfolio allocation across activities with varying returns to investments.

Do youth work in agriculture? Short-term dynamics of on-farm rural youth employment in Tanzania and Malawi

Menarche and pubertal progression: A cross-sectional analysis of timing and influencing factors in North-Eastern Ghana

Menarche and pubertal onset vary across populations but understanding age-at-menarche (AAM) and pubertal growth tempo is limited in low-income settings. Identifying factors influencing pubertal development is vital for creating targeted health and education programmes supporting adolescent girls’ well-being. Baseline data (n = 1045) from the Ten2Twenty-Ghana study were analysed to examine menarche attainment, pubertal development, AAM, and the associated factors among girls aged 10-17 years in the Mion district, Ghana. The data collection methods included anthropometry, body composition, haemoglobin status, a qualitative 24-hour dietary recall, a food frequency questionnaire, and a pubertal development score (PDS). Binary logistic and linear regression analyses were used to model odds ratios for menarche attainment and regression coefficients for AAM and PDS. About 19.9% of the girls had experienced menarche, with a mean AAM of 13.4 ± 1.5 years. Among post-menarche girls (n = 205/1045), 12.2% and 15.1% experienced early (AAM < 12 years) and late menarche (AAM < 15 years), respectively. The mean PDS was 1.8 ± 0.7 out of 4. Among the adolescent girls, 36.2% were prepubertal, 17.0% early –pubertal, 18.6% mid-pubertal, 27.9% late pubertal, and less than 1% were in the post-pubertal stage. An increase in fat mass (FM), fat-free mass (FFM), height-for-age-z-score (HAZ), and body mass index-for-age-z-score (BAZ) was observed with puberty progression, but a steep decline in HAZ was noticed for girls in late puberty, increasing again post-puberty. Being older (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.06, 95% C.I.: 1.83, 2.31), stunted (AOR= 0.20, 95% C.I.: 0.10, 0.40), thin (AOR = 0.30, 95% C.I.: 0.11, 0.80), and overweight/obese (AOR = 7.29, 95% C.I.: 2.60, 20.43) were the significant predictors of menarche attainment. Being older (β = 0.39, P < 0.0001), stunted (β= -0.92, P = 0.01), thin (β = 1.25, P = 0.01), and having a literate mother (β = -0.72, P = 0.03) were significantly associated with AMM. A higher HAZ, FM, FFM, age, and Konkomba ethnicity were positively associated with higher PDS. This study highlights the complexity of factors influencing menarche and pubertal development. These insights are essential for developing targeted health and educational programmes that address nutritional and socio-demographic disparities to promote adolescent girls’ well-being and healthy pubertal development.

Rocking the boat to change the debate: Identifying and testing conventional wisdom

This paper presents a method for and experiences with pioneering new research directions that challenge “conventional wisdom” and change policy and research debates. The method consists of four steps: (1) identify the conventional wisdom (CW); (2) ignore the CW and go to the field without pre-conceived notions, and look long and hard at reality—with interviews and surveys broad enough to allow oneself to make discoveries that contradict the CW; (3) then identify the contradictions between the CW and the field discoveries and pinpoint the implications for policy and research debates; (4) develop and mainstream a new research theme along a research “product cycle.” The paper summarizes my and collaborators’ application of the method with illustrations from four waves of market economics field research in Africa, Asia, and Latin America since the 1980s: (a) rural nonfarm employment; (b) processed food consumption; (c) the “hidden middle” (rapid diffusion of small and medium enterprises in the midstream of value chains); and (d) the “supermarket revolution”. The paper ends with a discussion of the benefits of this approach to policy and research debates and the researcher's own career, as well as considerations of risks, timing, and approach for application of the method.

JEL Classification: D12, J20, O12, O18, Q12, Q18

Economic and food security impacts of climate disasters and mitigation policies: Insights from Nigeria

Miracle seeds: Biased expectations, complementary input use, and the dynamics of smallholder technology adoption

To fully benefit from new agricultural technologies like improved seed varieties, significant investment in complementary inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides, and practices such as systematic planting, irrigation, and weeding are also required. Farmers may fail to recognize the importance of these complements, leading to disappointing crop yields and outputs and, eventually, dis-adoption of the improved variety. Using a field experiment, we test an information intervention among smallholder maize farmers in eastern Uganda that points out these complementarities. We find that farmers adopt less after they have been sensitized about the need to use complementary inputs to unlock the adoption premium. We rationalize this finding with a simple theoretical model where farmers have mis-specified mental models of the technology production function and conclude that most farmers in our sample do indeed believe in miracle seeds.

Capabilities assessment to support food systems transformation towards sustainable healthy diets in Ethiopia

Collaborative governance processes are increasingly recognized as critical for normative food systems transformation (FST) globally. For instance, collective action and multistakeholder partnerships is one of the main levers of change stated in Ethiopia’s Food Systems Roadmap. The collaborative processes bring together government, private actors, and citizens in collective forums and networks to engage in long-term, goal-oriented decision making and implementation (Ansell and Gash 2008), for example, change towards sustainable healthy diets and better planetary health for all populations. Forming and maintaining collaborative governance processes entail navigating different challenges attributed to the inherently dynamic nature of such partnerships.

Leveraging the role of MSMEs for healthier diets and nutrition: Insights from fruit and vegetable value chain studies across five countries

In most low and middle-income countries (LMICs) the food system falls short in providing sufficient amounts of healthy foods to a burgeoning population. The growing awareness of how food systems are stressing planetary boundaries and failing to provide sustainable healthy diets and livelihoods has prompted the widespread call to transform the global food system (Béné 2022; FAO et al. 2020, 2024; Webb et al. 2020). Transforming food systems requires engaging various groups of actors with diverse perspectives and challenges (Leeuwis et al. 2021), including setting up alliances with the informal sector (Brouwer & Ruben 2021) and a strengthened focus on the role of micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).

Globally, MSMEs represent about 90 percent of all businesses and account for 60 to 70 percent of employment and 50 percent of GDP. In the current food system, by being present at all value chain stages and better linking small-scale farmers to markets, MSMEs can offer affordable food to both urban and rural areas, create jobs and opportunities for young and female entrepreneurs, and support sustainable, circular food practices (IFAD 2021). These promises can be fulfilled if certain barriers that can hinder their contributions, such as high rates of food loss and waste (FLW), food safety concerns, and the uncertain informal context in which the majority of them operate are addressed (Termeer et al. 2024).

Nature-positive agriculture for people and the planet: A qualitative analysis from Kenya

Agricultural intensification that prioritizes profits over people and the environment is increasingly recognized as harmful to people’s wellbeing and the sustainability and resilience of smallholder farming systems. Nature-based solutions are part of nature-positive eco-agrifood systems and are critical for restoring ecosystems and preventing further biodiversity loss and environmental degradation during a climate crisis. To support more widespread adoption of nature-based solutions, it is important to understand dynamics within local communities where these solutions will be applied. This includes deeper understanding of environmental challenges, institutional and governance arrangements, current farming practices, gender relations, and perceptions of nature-based solutions. This study draws on qualitative data on these topics collected from smallholder farmers and key informants in three counties of Kenya. The discussion centers on the potential for nature-based practices to place agricultural production systems on a more sustainable path.

Stakeholder feedback on a slaughterhouse hygiene intervention in western Kenya

The intervention implemented evaluated through the Improving Hygiene Practices in Slaughterhouses in Western Kenya study (Ambler, et al., 2024) aimed to address poor hygiene practices in slaughterhouses, which contribute to foodborne illnesses and unsafe meat. Conducted in 140 slaughterhouses across 6 counties in Western Kenya, the intervention focused on training workers, provision of basic hygiene equipment, and the use of monetary incentives to improve compliance with recommended hygiene practices. After the intervention period, key informant interviews (KIIs) were conducted with stakeholders including six County Directors of Veterinary Services (CDVSs), nine sub-county veterinary Officers (SCVOs), one Public Health Officer (PHO), and ten meat inspectors (MIs).

This report summarizes findings from the KIIs regarding perspectives on the intervention, sustainability, challenges with implementation, and provides a basis for recommendations on refining and scaling up or this approach.

Evaluating hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change uncertainties

Hydropower and irrigation development on the Nile in Sudan can help meet growing food and energy needs. However, these potential infrastructures must be evaluated considering climate change uncertainties and multisector socioeconomic trade-offs. Increased streamflow combined with the recently constructed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam would provide reliable irrigation water supplies in Sudan under most climate change scenarios but there are distributional impacts.

Strengthening women’s voice and agency in Nigeria: Evidence from a randomized control trial on women’s advocacy and men’s allyship trainings

This policy brief presents insights from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) conducted across three states of southwestern Nigeria (Oyo, Ogun, and Osun), examining the effectiveness of advocacy and leadership training for women, along with allyship training for men (their husbands), in improving women’s voice and agency in community governance. With over 5,800 women participants across 450 communities, this study tested whether training women alone, as well as whether training them in tandem (though in separate sessions) with their husbands, can increase women’s political participation in local governance or the responsiveness of local leaders to women’s priorities. We show causal improvements in both when women are trained and chart out emerging policy lessons.

Formative study on slaughterhouse hygiene in Western Kenya: Summary Report

Slaughterhouses in Western Kenya face critical challenges, including inadequate hygiene practices, poor infrastructure, insufficient water supply, and weak enforcement of regulatory standards. These deficiencies contribute to meat contamination and the transmission of zoonotic diseases such as Rift Valley Fever, brucellosis, and anthrax, as well as foodborne pathogens such as Salmonella sp. and pathogenic E.coli. Globally, foodborne illnesses result in millions of illnesses and hundreds of thousands of deaths annually, particularly among children under five. The public health and economic consequences of these risks in low and middle-income countries are significant (Havelaar et al., 2015; Jaffee et al., 2018). A qualitative study, based on interviews of key informants in the slaughter industry in Western Kenya and associated regulatory authorities, was undertaken in 2022 to document the state of slaughterhouse infrastructure and practices, explore barriers to compliance with regulatory standards, and identify practical solutions for improving conditions and enabling safer meat handling practices. This report summarizes the findings of that study and presents recommendations for interventions to improve slaughter hygiene practices.

Impacts of personalized picture-based crop advisories: Experimental evidence from India and Kenya

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has heightened interest in digital models to strengthen agricultural extension. Such tools could help provide personalized advisories tailored to a farmer's unique conditions at scale and at a low cost. This study evaluates the fundamental assumption that personalized crop advisories are more effective than generic ones. By means of a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT), we assess the impact of personalized picture-based advisories on farmers’ perceptions, knowledge and adoption of recommended inputs and practices, and other downstream outcomes. We find that personalizing advisories does not significantly improve agricultural outcomes compared to generic ones. While farmers who engage relatively more with advisories (i.e., those who receive and read a substantial number of messages based on self-reports) tend to achieve better outcomes, this is irrespective of whether the advisories they receive are tailored to their specific situation or not. We conclude that investments in digital extension tools should aim to enhance engagement with advisories rather than focusing solely on personalization.